Non-Soto FA thread

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'll be pretty upset if they go bargain bin hunting. At some point you have to try to add actual impact players. And the conditions are perfect right now to make a trade of impact or sign a FA of impact. 

You have tons of prospects. Probably too many at the same level. You have lots of the roster locked in, what youre missing is fairly specific. And you have a VP who's on the hot seat in that he has no contract for 2026. Hell, there is a generational type FA on the market - guys like Soto, at his age are exceedingly rare (and I dont want this to be a another "we didnt try for Soto rant", Im using this for a bit of emphasis, some oomf if you will). If *now* isn't the time you don't bargain bin hunt, then I don't know when you don't. And at some point the Cubs need to be something more than trying to be a more expensive version of Milwaukee. 

Feels like this is a good barometer to see what an aggressive Hoyer looks like. And I'd fear that if this is as aggressive he gets that this team will ever get to the heights it should. 

Im letting Jed cook for the time being. The Crochet thing was pretty creative. So I think they'll really shoot for some impact. Im just saying if they go the "wait till mid-Jan" route...I'd be concerned. 

I'm not really concerned.   From trade deadlines and offseasons past we know that if Jed is good at anything it's how to wait out a market.  He's been doing the offseason dance since around 2002 so I have to trust he knows what he's doing.  Hopefully Soto is signed soon which should move things along.  Even if they wait things out I don't care, but its frustrating for us fans

Only position that could be concerning is catcher, but Jed does surprising deals all the time.  We didn't think we'd get Busch or Paredes.  We have no idea how they're thinking or how they even evaluate that position because of the intangibles and small sample sizes etc

 

[Backtobanks]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'm not really concerned.   From trade deadlines and offseasons past we know that if Jed is good at anything it's how to wait out a market.  He's been doing the offseason dance since around 2002 so I have to trust he knows what he's doing.  Hopefully Soto is signed soon which should move things along.  Even if they wait things out I don't care, but its frustrating for us fans

Only position that could be concerning is catcher, but Jed does surprising deals all the time.  We didn't think we'd get Busch or Paredes.  We have no idea how they're thinking or how they even evaluate that position because of the intangibles and small sample sizes etc

 

He's been in charge here since 2021 and the team is 26 games below .500 since then, so I'm not sure he' knows what he's doing.  Most of the years before that he was 2nd banana to Theo.

[Rex Buckingham]

At least we know they've been pretty active in trade discussions

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'm not really concerned.   From trade deadlines and offseasons past we know that if Jed is good at anything it's how to wait out a market.  He's been doing the offseason dance since around 2002 so I have to trust he knows what he's doing.  Hopefully Soto is signed soon which should move things along.  Even if they wait things out I don't care, but its frustrating for us fans

Only position that could be concerning is catcher, but Jed does surprising deals all the time.  We didn't think we'd get Busch or Paredes.  We have no idea how they're thinking or how they even evaluate that position because of the intangibles and small sample sizes etc

 

It’s like you live in some blizzaro universe. 

Edited December 8, 2024 by CubinNY

[Tryptamine]

Just now, CubinNY said:

It’s like you live in som blizzaro universe. 

Yeah that is certainly a take. Funny how waiting out the market has been almost entirely unsuccessful while the brief period they were aggressive, led to multiple playoff births and a WS.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah that is certainly a take. Funny how waiting out the market has been almost entirely unsuccessful while the brief period they were aggressive, led to multiple playoff births and a WS.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dexter-fowler/4062/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yu-darvish/13074/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tyler-chatwood/4338/stats?position=P

 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dexter-fowler/4062/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yu-darvish/13074/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tyler-chatwood/4338/stats?position=P

 

I'm not picking up what you're going after here

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not picking up what you're going after here

When did all of these players sign?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the Cubs do the same thing they did the last several offseasons, they will enter the season favored to win the division and probably projected within a win or so of every NL team aside from the Dodgers and Braves(who are not realistic to catch in one offseason).  This is because 1) waiting for value is not the same as shopping in the clearance aisle(Bertz's examples, Swanson, Bellinger, etc) 2) the Cubs are very fortunate this offseason in that they don't have to replace any meaningful lost production and also didn't have significant overperformance to hedge against, so they don't have to play catch up just to get to last year's level.

[CubinNY]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If the Cubs do the same thing they did the last several offseasons, they will enter the season favored to win the division and probably projected within a win or so of every NL team aside from the Dodgers and Braves(who are not realistic to catch in one offseason).  This is because 1) waiting for value is not the same as shopping in the clearance aisle(Bertz's examples, Swanson, Bellinger, etc) 2) the Cubs are very fortunate this offseason in that they don't have to replace any meaningful lost production and also didn't have significant overperformance to hedge against, so they don't have to play catch up just to get to last year's level.

It’s like you live some bizzaro universe where the Cubs have not been awful to mediocre for going on the better part of a decade. I mean real results do matter. Or maybe they don’t and we can blame the wind blowing in or injuries or rule changes or TV contracts or, or….

Edited December 8, 2024 by CubinNY

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

It’s like you live some bizzaro universe where the Cubs have not been awful to mediocre for going on the better part of a decade. I mean real results do matter. Or maybe they don’t and we can blame the wind blowing in or injuries or rule changes or, or, or….

What are you talking about, please read that post again if that's your takeaway.

The point is not that the Cubs were tragically unlucky the last 2 years(though I think you can argue their 2024 level is a bit higher than 83 wins), it's that unlike recent offseasons(and most offseasons for every team) they don't have to replace the production of a Contreras, Stroman, Bellinger, etc just to get back to their previous level.  That means if they make steady but unspectacular improvements, they're going to be considered the best team in the division and likely on par with the Philly/Mets/Arizona tier they've been a little short of the last 2 years.

[Cuzi]

I dont buy into this tragically unlucky theory. The Cubs predicted wins was like 84 before the season started. They ended up with 83.

I feel like Jed is heavily leaning on his deadline acquisition of Paredes and counting that as a major offseason move and is willing to sit back and wait for deals. I dont really agree with that, especially after what Paredes showed in Wrigley.

This team on paper should be vying for the division. But this team on paper was also favorites to win the division last year. Paper doesn't play on the field. Tragically unlucky is the Dodgers entire pitching staff getting decimated but still having super star players carry them through to win a WS. The Cubs need some superstars.

Edited December 8, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

At least we know they've been pretty active in trade discussions

But do we?  Reports are quite often speculation when there's nothing to write about. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If the Cubs do the same thing they did the last several offseasons, they will enter the season favored to win the division and probably projected within a win or so of every NL team aside from the Dodgers and Braves(who are not realistic to catch in one offseason).  This is because 1) waiting for value is not the same as shopping in the clearance aisle(Bertz's examples, Swanson, Bellinger, etc) 2) the Cubs are very fortunate this offseason in that they don't have to replace any meaningful lost production and also didn't have significant overperformance to hedge against, so they don't have to play catch up just to get to last year's level.

This is probably true. But at some point the arrow has to be pointed at being better than just being favored to a win a division in which the Cubs should. with their financial advantage, be in contention to win most years. 

Waiting for value has plenty of utility. I think it's especially useful for teams like the Cubs have been the last few offseasons - they had a bunch of options to raise a floor here or there. But there also comes a time when stacking multiple wins in limited and specific roster spots is the goal, and I just can't find a better situation to do that than right now (and that can be through trade!). The Cubs are really primed to add a bang-on top-3 arm, or a 4 win hitter if they move off Bellinger. And yes, that value may not match the surlpus of waiting until mid-late-January. 

We can say that the Dodgers and the Braves aren't really realistic to catch in one offseason...and I don't disagree. But that's also been a pretty consistent place the Cubs have been in for a while and while I think they've done a pretty decent job building up the roster, it's also probably time to start making a turn in stacking offseasons where you start to catch those teams. Trading Bellinger to open up funds to keep bringing in Andrew Chafins', Michael Confortos and Mathew Boyds (just picking short term players who you can maybe wait out) probably isn't going to do that. They'll raise some floors here for 2025, but long term they won't be here, and probably don't really cut into any lead the Braves and the Dodgers have. Those players aren't bad, and some are necessary every offseason...I just don't think that can be the only way we look to improve this offseason, either.

I'm not trying to throw a fit here, so know this isn't me being impatient...only stating that at some point these types of offseasons are going to begin to limit their utility in making ground up on the best teams. And I think the Cubs would have missed a real shot this offseason to start to cut into that deficient. 

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, thawv said:

But do we?  Reports are quite often speculation when there's nothing to write about. 

The Crotchet thing appears to have been real, 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If the Cubs do the same thing they did the last several offseasons, they will enter the season favored to win the division and probably projected within a win or so of every NL team aside from the Dodgers and Braves(who are not realistic to catch in one offseason).  This is because 1) waiting for value is not the same as shopping in the clearance aisle(Bertz's examples, Swanson, Bellinger, etc) 2) the Cubs are very fortunate this offseason in that they don't have to replace any meaningful lost production and also didn't have significant overperformance to hedge against, so they don't have to play catch up just to get to last year's level.

Only because the Brewers have gotten worse. As things stand right now, I have the Cubs right around 81 to 82 wins. I expect shota and taillon to regress a bit and I expect Paredes to be better.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah that is certainly a take. Funny how waiting out the market has been almost entirely unsuccessful while the brief period they were aggressive, led to multiple playoff births and a WS.

So you measure his ability to wait out a market by the number of wins on the board?  That makes no sense whatsoever. 

Measure the moves themselves.  He's done pretty well at the trade  deadlines.  Everybody wanted Belli back and we avoided a longterm deal.

Jed and this org has had issues but I don't think timing a market is one of them.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Everybody wanted Belli back and we avoided a longterm deal.

Dont think many wanted Bellinger back on a  $27.5M+ annual commitment. We avoided a long term deal but created an issue because now we are limited on budget because Bellinger's contract is underwater enough that he didn't want to test the market and opted in.

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Dont think many wanted Bellinger back on a  $27.5M+ annual commitment. We avoided a long term deal but created an issue because now we are limited on budget because Bellinger's contract is underwater enough that he didn't want to test the market and opted in.

Hindsight is 20/20.  Would you have taken a 5/120 or 6/145 deal instead?

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Hindsight is 20/20.  Would you have taken a 5/120 or 6/145 deal instead?

I wasn't someone who wanted Bellinger back. I wanted to trade him at the deadline in 2023.

Edited December 8, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Crotchet thing appears to have been real, 

I personally don't think having 4 LHP in the rotation is a good idea, so I don't think the Crochet thing is logical. 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If the Cubs do the same thing they did the last several offseasons, they will enter the season favored to win the division and probably projected within a win or so of every NL team aside from the Dodgers and Braves(who are not realistic to catch in one offseason).  This is because 1) waiting for value is not the same as shopping in the clearance aisle(Bertz's examples, Swanson, Bellinger, etc) 2) the Cubs are very fortunate this offseason in that they don't have to replace any meaningful lost production and also didn't have significant overperformance to hedge against, so they don't have to play catch up just to get to last year's level.

Agree with all of this.  With the caveat they avoid overpaying for lower talent signings, which Jed's had some issues with previously.  Matthew Boyd pending.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

What are you talking about, please read that post again if that's your takeaway.

The point is not that the Cubs were tragically unlucky the last 2 years(though I think you can argue their 2024 level is a bit higher than 83 wins), it's that unlike recent offseasons(and most offseasons for every team) they don't have to replace the production of a Contreras, Stroman, Bellinger, etc just to get back to their previous level.  That means if they make steady but unspectacular improvements, they're going to be considered the best team in the division and likely on par with the Philly/Mets/Arizona tier they've been a little short of the last 2 years.

Exactly.  If they can get their money's worth out of their signings they could project several wins better than 83, especially if they make a trade.  Their pythag wins was 88, which i don't take as their "true wins" but is at least on the right side of encouraging.

Also this convo is about timing and when they sign, which is different than who they sign or what the rest of the 26-man looks like.  Cubs were "aggressive" on Matthew Boyd and fans aren't overjoyed just because they signed him early.  I don't care when they sign another catcher or SP/reliever I just care who it is and how much they paid.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I personally don't think having 4 LHP in the rotation is a good idea, so I don't think the Crochet thing is logical. 

Lets imagine the Cubs had 3 RHP in the rotation. Would you not want to add Dylan Cease to the rotation?

Do you know that Crochet doesn't have any sort of issues with RHH? He's pretty split neutral. I'm not sure it would even matter.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Lets imagine the Cubs had 3 RHP in the rotation. Would you not want to add Dylan Cease to the rotation?

Do you know that Crochet doesn't have any sort of issues with RHH? He's pretty split neutral. I'm not sure it would even matter.

My preference would be 4 solid RHP, and 1 solid LHP.  It's a lopsided league for right handed hitters.  I don't know the answer, but do you know how many teams have won the WS 3 LHP, yet alone 4 LHP?