Non-Soto FA thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So if the Cubs lose Bellinger you would be fine with him being the big addition to the line up? If he was the big addition he might not get 100+ games at any one position, but he would be in the line up most days. 3rd for some games, maybe 2nd when giving Nico a day or even when moving Nico to SS. The rest of the time he could he the DH. He could get 500AB easily, if he deserved them and he was the Cubs big addition. I am just not sure I like him as the big move. 

In that situation I would also go after a strong RHH 1B/OF type(even as big as Alonso if possible), but my point is less 'Polanco is amazing and solves all our problems' and more that Polanco and Santander(and Brandon Lowe for that matter) are a lot closer than their perception and likely contracts would imply.  So if you think one is a good addition you'll probably end up similarly happy with one of the others.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I will go a step further in that if you have a reasonable amount of confidence that Polanco will be healthy(he had surgery but he had knee issues with the Twins too) and that the injury + Safeco are the big drivers in his 2024 performance, that there's not much daylight between him and Santander.

 

 

But I also agree that getting Polanco in the door could be a challenge given the settled infield and him likely looking to take a 1 year deal with aspirations of proving 2024 was the fluke.

Yeah you probably have to offer up some of the available DH playing time, something like 60-70 games on the infield and another 60-70 at DH.  Which obviously means the righty bat you add can't be someone expecting 140 starts.  

So essentially would you rather have Polanco and like Mark Canha, or a much better righty bat paired with like Cavan Biggio?  Assuming in the latter scenario any of the QO guys are off the table, I probably go with Polanco?

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, thawv said:

I'm basing my number on what Spotrac has his market value at, based on the 4 comps they used.  I meant to say 4 million also.  Sorry.  I would personally be shocked if he got anywhere near 13 million. 

As you know, in the FA market, player get over their market value simply because of a bidding war.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/17639/walker-buehler

Not sure what he gets but I think over 4m..  I wonder what he projects for IP next year.  Maybe 90 IP?  His K/9 wasnt that good this year including the playoffs.  I wouldn't give him much.

[Stratos]

15 hours ago, Cuzi said:

No they cant, but lets not act like Boras isn't out there getting feelers for the market right now.

Agree.  Boras has other clients and can get a feel for the market.  No harm in him waiting.  Situations can change a bit, you never know.

[Rcal10]

15 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah you probably have to offer up some of the available DH playing time, something like 60-70 games on the infield and another 60-70 at DH.  Which obviously means the righty bat you add can't be someone expecting 140 starts.  

So essentially would you rather have Polanco and like Mark Canha, or a much better righty bat paired with like Cavan Biggio?  Assuming in the latter scenario any of the QO guys are off the table, I probably go with Polanco?

Honestly, if these are the options we are talking about if Bellinger it’s out, I think I would rather he not opt out and the Cubs sign Polanco or Moncada, if they really need a left handed bat. When Hoerner is out which ever one they sign plays everyday. When Nico comes back they have 9 guys for 8 non catcher positions. If they decided they would rather have a platoon bat to play 1st once in a while, instead of Polonco/Moncada maybe they go after Mountcastle. 

[Cuzi]

Trade Bellinger if he opts in. Sorry, but you can't go into a 3rd season with the same damn lineup. A new look bench isn't good enough at this point.

Edited November 2, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

21 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Trade Bellinger if he opts in. Sorry, but you can't go into a 3rd season with the same damn lineup. A new look bench isn't good enough at this point.

PCA and Paredes both had less than a half season in the lineup and less than that actually playing to their future expectation, and they'll certainly be adding a catcher that can be starting caliber(replacing the ~50 wRC+ they got from that playing time).  They should still look to add a good bat, but absolutism off obviously wrong truisms like 'they have the same lineup for 3 years running' is silly.

[Post Count Padder]

What TT said. A full season from PCA, Paredes finds his power again and we get a catcher who can hit (as well as not giving plate appearances to guys like Mastroɓuoni) and that's auch better offense. We also have to believe Dansby will bounce back too. 

 

I think we're looking at added likelihood a SP or catcher is added by trade with Bellinger opting in to avoid overspending in FA. There's an obvious log jam of OF prospects in the upper minors. 

[Stratos]

On 11/1/2024 at 2:52 PM, Bertz said:

They are not showing up on individual player pages but Steamer projections look like they're live on Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

It loos like all of the pending FAs have been cleared out (including Bellinger) and the Cubs are the #17 team in WAR as currently constituted.  That is #1 in the division, though the Cardinals are right behind them by a fraction of a WAR.  They rank 12th on the position player side, 22nd on the pitching front 

If you go player by player not a ton of surprises, and few things that kind of stand out though

- Steamer has generally been pretty down on Dansby Swanson (while ZiPS has loved him), but 3.4 WAR feels pretty fair

- Busch gets a fairly soft projection (1.9 WAR) as does Taillon (1.3)

- Shaw gets a strong projection, the other prospects not so much.  Generally these systems do not love rookies, so I think the Shaw piece is more of a surprise than the latter

- Steamer likes several members of the bullpen, it does not love any of them (even Hodge).  And generally reliever WAR tends to rack up exponentially as production improves

All in all I don't think anything here is too far away from expectations.  It paints the picture of a team that is a smidge north of .500 heading into a winter where they presumably have a lot of resources to throw around.

Thank you for posting all this.

- What's their "Fld" stat?  I assume "fielding" but what does it measure?  Swanson is at -0.5 which seems odd.

Busch had a high BABIP (his xBA in 2024 was .221) so maybe that's the key with their low projection.  He has a nice swing and approach though.  They project Seiya at 2,2 WAR, maybe the xBA and all his time projected at DH.  Bellinger stays around his stats last year.

These projections aren't surprising, they see basically our whole rotation ERA's regressing.

This team doesn't look very good here.  Projecting a whole lot of average-ness.

 

[Donzo]

With Cody’s opt in, I’m looking for pitching in FA. Obviously a catcher will be added either by trade or FA, then go in-house with the offense.  A few Guys are banging at the door, it’ll be interesting. Then, if needed, make a trade during the season.

For FA pitching, they have to go top shelf. I’m not big on bellyaching about the Cubs lack of spending. I’ve been there, but it’s dull and tedious . With that said, the Cubs going cheap on the bullpen  last year hurt, it was BS! This year, go big or do nothing and stay in-house.

My top SP/RP combo is Corbin Burns and Tanner Scott.

Burns is a perfect fit reuniting with Counsell and forming a top-3 rotation with left handers Steele/Imanaga. Tailon would slot in as a high end 4th SP, then let the young guys figure out the 5th spot and depth. Could  even consolidate the young guys and trade for another quality SP. Would give the Cubs a heck of 1-5 staff.

Tanner Scott is my top choice for RP. I think he’s a perfect compliment to Hodge as a 8th/9th inning duo. After that, I guess some combo of Miller/Pearson/Thompson are the projected 6th/7th inning guys. Need to add a guy to that group. Trade or FA, either way.

[Bertz]

You know who is an incredible, glove perfect fit for this roster?  Randal Grichuk.

Even as I've been unable to shut up about a lefty masher all offseason, because of his Cardinals tenure combined with not being able to cover 1B (and pre-Bellinger some 1B coverage felt pretty necessary), I've completely ignored him. 

But he DEMOLISHES lefties.  His wRC+ is 150 against them over the last three years, in nearly 500 PAs too so not really small sample size.  It comes with power too, 25 dongs (a 30 per 600 PA pace) and a .573 slugging.

Defensively the story is a bit mixed.  His speed is still fine, and DRS makes it seem like he was trash at Coors field but can handle himself elsewhere.  Statcast thinks he has been pretty awful even after leaving.  I'd believe anything from pure DH to "can still fake it in CF," but one of the bonuses to Bellinger opting in is on this roster any defense this guy provides is purely a bonus.

He also feels pretty unequivocally like a bench player, there shouldn't be any messiness about offering X amount of playing time like you might have with certain other options.

[Bertz]

Something that got lost a bit in the Passan article: he expects the SP market to move pretty quickly while the bats might take a long time again

Quote

 

The likeliest segment of the market to move quickly, both parties suggested, is starting pitching. It's the deepest position in the class, full of high-end, midtier and bargain options. There are one-year, make-good deals to be found on pitchers with Cy Young-level ceilings and short commitment opportunities to land brand-name talent. Pitching will be expensive -- it always is -- but teams have steeled themselves for that.

The top-heavy hitting class could dictate how the rest of the market operates. The finite number of impact hitters can wait until the proper deal materializes, particularly with a paucity of top-tier bats available via trade.

 

 

[Jason Ross]

Makes sense. Juan Soto is likely going to hold that whole thing up, especially because the gap between Soto and the "next" is pretty big. Alonso, represented by Boras, feels like someone who will likely take time to sign after that (he feels like a January guy?). The gap between Burnes/Fried and the next group feels far less of a chasm. 

Feels like something that could help if the Cubs are encouraged to move Bellinger or Hoerner.

[Rcal10]

Just curious, how much sense does a Bellinger for Castillo trade make, straight up. Both have a similar salary. Both underperformed a bit. But both make some sense for the team they are traded too. Is that fair? Does something else need to be added somewhere? Would Castillo excite some Cubs fans as a guy better than Taillon and a top 2 or 3 in the rotation? Maybe they do that and trade for Lowe? Or think bigger and go with Tucker or even Vlad. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Just curious, how much sense does a Bellinger for Castillo trade make, straight up. Both have a similar salary. Both underperformed a bit. But both make some sense for the team they are traded too. Is that fair? Does something else need to be added somewhere? Would Castillo excite some Cubs fans as a guy better than Taillon and a top 2 or 3 in the rotation? Maybe they do that and trade for Lowe? Or think bigger and go with Tucker or even Vlad. 

I think as a fit the biggest barrier is that the Mariners aren't really hurting for OF or OF that can play CF.  They obviously have Julio, and they recently extended Robles who can play out there along with Arozarena to play LF.  Plus Raley was very good for them and is a LHH 1B. All 3 OF are RHH and they don't have a locked on DH so it's not an impossible fit, but probably one where they'd look for something a bit different than Bellinger.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think as a fit the biggest barrier is that the Mariners aren't really hurting for OF or OF that can play CF.  They obviously have Julio, and they recently extended Robles who can play out there along with Arozarena to play LF.  Plus Raley was very good for them and is a LHH 1B. All 3 OF are RHH and they don't have a locked on DH so it's not an impossible fit, but probably one where they'd look for something a bit different than Bellinger.

Thanks. That is fair. But I do think the Mariners could still use Bellinger and the Cubs can use Castillo. At least enough to make those two the main pieces in a deal. 

[Bertz]

Presumably Kelly and Higashioka get essentially the same deal.  Jansen maybe a bit more?

You could put your tin foil hat on and wonder about O'Hoppe's availability, but my guess is this is meant as a partnership/mentorship deal.

 

[Cuzi]

Nothing really excites me about Castillo. You can count on him as much as you can count on pitching to be healthy, but other than that, meh. He's owed $24M over the next 3 years with a vesting option for a 4th year. He's losing velocity and movement on his pitches. He's still good, but I wouldn't give up anything that is somewhat valuable to get him, especially if they aren't eating any of that salary. Would just as much sign one of the half dozen pitchers in FA that can meet his performance numbers for less money.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Thanks. That is fair. But I do think the Mariners could still use Bellinger and the Cubs can use Castillo. At least enough to make those two the main pieces in a deal. 

Seems like a pretty fair trade.  I agree though that CF isn't a problem for them, at least not last year.  There's other teams that could want Bellinger.  Blue Jays, Giants, maybe Mets especially if they don't land Soto.

[Rcal10]

18 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Nothing really excites me about Castillo. You can count on him as much as you can count on pitching to be healthy, but other than that, meh. He's owed $24M over the next 3 years with a vesting option for a 4th year. He's losing velocity and movement on his pitches. He's still good, but I wouldn't give up anything that is somewhat valuable to get him, especially if they aren't eating any of that salary. Would just as much sign one of the half dozen pitchers in FA that can meet his performance numbers for less money.

I understand Castillo might not be any better than the mid level pitchers they can just sign. But if they traded Bellinger for Castillo my hope would be they then add a big bat like Tucker via trade, to replace Bellinger. I would rather have Tucker and Castillo than Bellinger and Eovaldi, as an example. I think the Castillo/Tucker combo is actually cheaper than Eovaldi/Bellinger. Besides that, several of the mid level pitchers are attached to a QO. Trading Bellinger gives the Cubs room to add a big bat. And why not do that and also fill a hole in the rotation. The catch is, they then need to sign Tucker. I would think the FO should have a pretty good idea what Tucker would cost. If they don’t plan on paying that price for him, then there is no reason to make a trade for him. I don’t want to lose the prospects they will have to lose for one year of Tucker. To me, this would be the biggest reason not to entertain something like Castillo/Bellinger. But it is also something they can absolutely control. Just pay him more than anyone else does and you have him. Time to be aggressive if they want to win. 

[Stratos]

Quote

The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

No Soto, no TOR, no nobody.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/cubs-rumors-unlikely-sign-top-starting-pitchers-max-fried-corbin-burnes-blake-snell.html

 

Edited November 23, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

Also sorry but the above doesn't deserve it's own thread, no idea where to put it

[LBiittner]

For all the complaining I've done about jed and his intelligent spending, I only have to look as far as the Houston Astros and see that team will be paying Abreu, Montero and McCullers $50 million in 2025 to not play for the team. BTW, they went over lux tax in 2024. 

[Bertz]

Don't Like this.  Though it being the Angels provides some reassurance about how much we're missing out.

[LBiittner]

Jed not spending nuttin