Non-Soto FA thread

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But if you signed Fried for 5 years you have him at 33,34, and 35 the last 3 years of his deal. And, honestly I think he will get 6 years. So add 36 too. So rather than worry about Eovaldi now you have to worry about an aging pitcher in a few years. And on top of that, the aging pitcher at that time will be being paid more than Eovaldi. Plus, you run the risk of him getting hurt even before he gets older. Now if that happens you have a guy in a 6 year deal for a high annual salary who is injured. For me I would rather take the short term risk who also happens to be a right handed pitcher and will cost less annual and in years, and not cost the Cubs a penalty because of  QO. Bottom line is there is risk everywhere with pitchers. But the best ones want to get paid well into their mid to late 30’s. 

Yes he could easily get 6 years.  Not sure i'm in on that.

Anyways, I trust Jed here.  He got Imanaga, Taillon, Stroman on good deals at good ages.  Maybe he'll make a trade for a SP, who knows.

[Bertz]

52 minutes ago, Stratos said:

24 y/o is a different situation.  Would you sign Max Fried at age 31 to 5 years or a hypothetical 34 or 35 y/o Fried with the same stats for 3 years?  I'm signing the 31 y/o

I'm 1000% taking the 3 year deal to the older pitcher in this scenario.  What age are you thinking pitcher risk shoots way up, because 31 is definitely already post prime.

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Yes he could easily get 6 years.  Not sure i'm in on that.

Anyways, I trust Jed here.  He got Imanaga, Taillon, Stroman on good deals at good ages.  Maybe he'll make a trade for a SP, who knows.

And maybe he will sign Eovaldi for 2 or 3 years and it turns out to be a good deal. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm 1000% taking the 3 year deal to the older pitcher in this scenario.  What age are you thinking pitcher risk shoots way up, because 31 is definitely already post prime.

Once you hit 30, the older you are the more age regression risk.  Same with hitters.  In FA most players are at least 29 y/o (besides mainly stars who got to the MLB quicker than most, plus non-tenders, DFA's etc) so in FA and generally the Cubs should try to stay as young as they reasonably can, especially when spending larger sums.  Hoyer has definitely been trying to do this on the larger contracts and should do a better job on the smaller ones.

I mentioned Fried because based on performance, age, velo trends, and health I think he's the best FA pitcher available.  Burnes is up there too though some red flags on the K/9 and velo drop in recent years.  There's other solid choices like Flaherty (could be the best option based on the contract).

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

And maybe he will sign Eovaldi for 2 or 3 years and it turns out to be a good deal. 

I think if he signs Eovaldi it's because the years/AAV is undervalued compared to everyone else.  This seems to be how he signs the other significant FA's.

Maybe i'm wrong but Jed has never signed any FA over age 31 on a multiyear deal over 10m AAV.  Smyly and Neris were closest.

Edited October 24, 2024 by Stratos

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Maybe i'm wrong but Jed has never signed any FA over age 31 on a multiyear deal over 10m AAV.  Smyly and Neris were closest.

He gave Marcus Stroman 3/71. That's well above 10M AAV.

Stroman was 31 for a month into that contract.

I really dont understand these strange odd age cutoffs you keep using to make your argument. A pitchers peak years are early 20's. The best velocity on a fastball typically comes at like 22. The overall decline starts at like 27. Why on earth are we worried about the decline of age 31 vs 35 when the 35 year old is just as good as the 31 year old? There's just as much risk performance wise for the 31 year old with the additional risk of the bigger contract.

Lets look at 5/100+ contracts given out from '22-'23 to SP and see how many have actually worked out so far. age of signing in parenthesis.

Kevin Gausman (30) - Yes.

Robbie Ray (30) - No.

Jose Berrios (27) - No.

Joe Musgrove (29) - No.

Yu Darvish  (36) - No.

Luis Castillo (30) - Yes.

Carlos Rodon (30) - No.

Jacob deGrom (34) - No.

Why again should I want to sign a non elite pitcher that's on the wrong side of the bell graph to a 5 year deal?

 

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

13 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Y'all are taking me far too seriously today. I know this. 'Twas but a tounge in cheek joke, friend. 

Of course I know that, teach!!!

[Outshined_One]

14 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Just wondering if there was any confirmation as to which players jed was scouting in Japan during his last visit? Did reporters notice if jed took any staff with him or merely his wife? I mean, was it a full-fledged work trip or an in-season vaykay?

I don't believe there was any confirmation on those items, but the two main guys who should be available this offseason are SPs Roki Sasaki (more on him in a second) and Tomoyuki Sugano, both pitchers.  There was some speculation that 3B Munetaka Murakami might be posted this offseason, but he's more likely to come over in 2026 and will probably be one of the white whales in free agency after next season.

As previously discussed, Sugano comes without any meaningful restrictions in FA, but is in his mid-30s and will probably end up as a back-end RHP rotation guy.

Sasaki is fascinating, but is a potential victim of MLB's greed and the MLBPA's willingness to throw non-members under the bus.  The linked FanGraphs article provides more info, but basically, because Sasaki (23) is under the age of 25, the International Bonus Cap Rules apply, which completely muddles his situation.  If he's posted in the coming weeks, then the 2023-24 caps apply, but if he's posted on or after January 15, 2025, then the 2024-25 caps apply.  Making things more annoying, the caps also can apply to any posting fee, meaning his team (Chiba Lotte Marines) might want to sit on him another two seasons if they want to get a multimillion dollar payout from an MLB team.  Further complicating his situation is the fact that Sasaki has been battling injuries this season and his production was below expectations as a result.

Normally, these circumstances would dictate that the Marines would hang onto Sasaki until they could maximize his posting fee in two years, but there are whispers that Sasaki has a posting clause in his contract that could force the Marines to post him this offseason.

Whether the Cubs would be in on Sasaki is an open question, but, if Sasaki is posted after January 15, the Cubs would be better positioned to pursue him than they are now, and it is possible for teams to trade for signing bonus space in the event a bidding war breaks out,.  He ticks a lot of the Cubs' need boxes (RHP starter, ++++ stuff, young, controllable, etc.) and would be an excellent addition to the team, but, again, there is no guarantee he'll even be posted this offseason.

 

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Once you hit 30, the older you are the more age regression risk.  Same with hitters.  In FA most players are at least 29 y/o (besides mainly stars who got to the MLB quicker than most, plus non-tenders, DFA's etc) so in FA and generally the Cubs should try to stay as young as they reasonably can, especially when spending larger sums.  Hoyer has definitely been trying to do this on the larger contracts and should do a better job on the smaller ones.

I mentioned Fried because based on performance, age, velo trends, and health I think he's the best FA pitcher available.  Burnes is up there too though some red flags on the K/9 and velo drop in recent years.  There's other solid choices like Flaherty (could be the best option based on the contract).

So hitters absolutely work that cleanly.  Guys improve in their early 20's, peak somewhere in the 25-27 range, plateau with maybe some gradual decline until a little after 30, and then decline harder from there.  

Pitchers do not work that cleanly.  Guys improve dramatically as they add pitches or velo or alter mechanics to improve command or deception.  They break constantly.  It's very much a step curve. 

There is *some* added risk as you get older, but mainly the reason we don't see a ton of productive older pitchers is because for any pitcher there's like a 10-20% chance of the attrition monster randomly destroying your arm in a given year, and that's a lot of dice rolls you have to successfully navigate.  But if you've had enough fortune to make it to 35, you're not that much more risky in your 36 season than the guy 5-10 years your junior.

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I don't believe there was any confirmation on those items, but the two main guys who should be available this offseason are SPs Roki Sasaki (more on him in a second) and Tomoyuki Sugano, both pitchers.  There was some speculation that 3B Munetaka Murakami might be posted this offseason, but he's more likely to come over in 2026 and will probably be one of the white whales in free agency after next season.

As previously discussed, Sugano comes without any meaningful restrictions in FA, but is in his mid-30s and will probably end up as a back-end RHP rotation guy.

Sasaki is fascinating, but is a potential victim of MLB's greed and the MLBPA's willingness to throw non-members under the bus.  The linked FanGraphs article provides more info, but basically, because Sasaki (23) is under the age of 25, the International Bonus Cap Rules apply, which completely muddles his situation.  If he's posted in the coming weeks, then the 2023-24 caps apply, but if he's posted on or after January 15, 2025, then the 2024-25 caps apply.  Making things more annoying, the caps also can apply to any posting fee, meaning his team (Chiba Lotte Marines) might want to sit on him another two seasons if they want to get a multimillion dollar payout from an MLB team.  Further complicating his situation is the fact that Sasaki has been battling injuries this season and his production was below expectations as a result.

Normally, these circumstances would dictate that the Marines would hang onto Sasaki until they could maximize his posting fee in two years, but there are whispers that Sasaki has a posting clause in his contract that could force the Marines to post him this offseason.

Whether the Cubs would be in on Sasaki is an open question, but, if Sasaki is posted after January 15, the Cubs would be better positioned to pursue him than they are now, and it is possible for teams to trade for signing bonus space in the event a bidding war breaks out,.  He ticks a lot of the Cubs' need boxes (RHP starter, ++++ stuff, young, controllable, etc.) and would be an excellent addition to the team, but, again, there is no guarantee he'll even be posted this offseason.

 

Much appreciated your detailed explanation. Thanks

[Stratos]

15 hours ago, Cuzi said:

He gave Marcus Stroman 3/71. That's well above 10M AAV.

Stroman was 31 for a month into that contract.

He was 31 when he signed, and Jed was willing to pay higher AAV to avoid more age regression risk of a longer term deal.  The point is that Jed doesn't like signing significant contracts to older players and tries to keep the team as young and as close to peak years as possible and there's great reasons for that.

Quote

I really dont understand these strange odd age cutoffs you keep using to make your argument. A pitchers peak years are early 20's. The best velocity on a fastball typically comes at like 22. The overall decline starts at like 27.

Velo peaks in the early 20's but velo isn't 1:1 with overall performance.  Pitchers peak in their late 20's, around 27-29.  We should try to stay as young as possible on FA on all sides of the ball.  The older a player is north of age 29 the more age regression risk for hitters and pitchers.

Quote

Why on earth are we worried about the decline of age 31 vs 35 when the 35 year old is just as good as the 31 year old? There's just as much risk performance wise for the 31 year old with the additional risk of the bigger contract.

I already stated i'm not sure i'd sign Fried for 6 years.  Yes he could easily regress especially towards the end of the deal, like Lester did.  I definitely wouldn't sign Eovaldi for 2-3 years, unless it was a ridiculous value we couldn't refuse compared to everything else.  I was out on Verlander, on Scherzer, on the Darvish extension.  Yuck.

Quote

 

Lets look at 5/100+ contracts given out from '22-'23 to SP and see how many have actually worked out so far. age of signing in parenthesis.

Kevin Gausman (30) - Yes.

Robbie Ray (30) - No.

Jose Berrios (27) - No.

Joe Musgrove (29) - No.

Yu Darvish  (36) - No.

Luis Castillo (30) - Yes.

Carlos Rodon (30) - No.

Jacob deGrom (34) - No.

Why again should I want to sign a non elite pitcher that's on the wrong side of the bell graph to a 5 year deal?

 

In FA the Cubs should want to stay as young and short-term as possible.  In FA it can be hard to they should just do the best they reasonably can and Hoyer does that, at least for the larger contracts.

A lot of those deals above were just stupid.  Robbie Ray coming off an outlier career year,  Darvish signed to a 6 year deal at age 36, Rodon is always injured as is Degrom.  Jed clearly tries to stay as young and healthy as possible in FA and his approach on SP is absolutely correct.  He shouldn't have even brought back Hendricks and Smyly at those prices.  It's pretty unlikely he's going to sign Eovaldi or even Kikuchi unless its a deal he can't refuse, like very short-term or cheap deal per their talent aka the best value.

Edited October 24, 2024 by Stratos

[imb]

On 10/23/2024 at 9:57 AM, Cuzi said:

Want a really good pitcher on a short term cheap AAV deal? He's in Mexico right now.

 

[squally1313]

...oh great, ANOTHER elite young hitter that jed probably won't pay for

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Bertz said:

So hitters absolutely work that cleanly.  Guys improve in their early 20's, peak somewhere in the 25-27 range, plateau with maybe some gradual decline until a little after 30, and then decline harder from there.  

Pitchers do not work that cleanly.  Guys improve dramatically as they add pitches or velo or alter mechanics to improve command or deception.  They break constantly.  It's very much a step curve. 

There is *some* added risk as you get older, but mainly the reason we don't see a ton of productive older pitchers is because for any pitcher there's like a 10-20% chance of the attrition monster randomly destroying your arm in a given year, and that's a lot of dice rolls you have to successfully navigate.  But if you've had enough fortune to make it to 35, you're not that much more risky in your 36 season than the guy 5-10 years your junior.

Per the last paragraph, Is there data to back this up?  You're talking overall risk (injury + age) and not just age regression right?

Edited October 25, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

I don't believe there was any confirmation on those items, but the two main guys who should be available this offseason are SPs Roki Sasaki (more on him in a second) and Tomoyuki Sugano, both pitchers.  There was some speculation that 3B Munetaka Murakami might be posted this offseason, but he's more likely to come over in 2026 and will probably be one of the white whales in free agency after next season.

As previously discussed, Sugano comes without any meaningful restrictions in FA, but is in his mid-30s and will probably end up as a back-end RHP rotation guy.

Sasaki is fascinating, but is a potential victim of MLB's greed and the MLBPA's willingness to throw non-members under the bus.  The linked FanGraphs article provides more info, but basically, because Sasaki (23) is under the age of 25, the International Bonus Cap Rules apply, which completely muddles his situation.  If he's posted in the coming weeks, then the 2023-24 caps apply, but if he's posted on or after January 15, 2025, then the 2024-25 caps apply.  Making things more annoying, the caps also can apply to any posting fee, meaning his team (Chiba Lotte Marines) might want to sit on him another two seasons if they want to get a multimillion dollar payout from an MLB team.  Further complicating his situation is the fact that Sasaki has been battling injuries this season and his production was below expectations as a result.

Normally, these circumstances would dictate that the Marines would hang onto Sasaki until they could maximize his posting fee in two years, but there are whispers that Sasaki has a posting clause in his contract that could force the Marines to post him this offseason.

Whether the Cubs would be in on Sasaki is an open question, but, if Sasaki is posted after January 15, the Cubs would be better positioned to pursue him than they are now, and it is possible for teams to trade for signing bonus space in the event a bidding war breaks out,.  He ticks a lot of the Cubs' need boxes (RHP starter, ++++ stuff, young, controllable, etc.) and would be an excellent addition to the team, but, again, there is no guarantee he'll even be posted this offseason.

 

Given how young he is he's basically like a top college pitcher prospect but international.  It would make sense he were treated like any other international player.  Not sure if that's happening though, besides the posting fee.  I think the smaller market teams should get a fair shot at him too.

[Stratos]

https://ivyleaguecubs.com/2024/10/23/source-cody-bellinger-leaning-towards-opting-out-and-testing-free-agency/

[Bertz]

Cubs' beat writers all expect Bellinger to opt out.  Especially how close we are to decision time it feels about as clear as we're going to get until the definitive decision has been made.

[Derwood]

A "general feeling" i.e. "we have no idea but we feel compelled to keep writing about it"

[Cuzi]

He must really believe the QO was a major deterrence last season. Because the offense tanked and the CF defense has been mediocre the entire time. Only thing that makes sense is he would be willing to sacrifice the yearly AAV on a different team that can offer more playing time at the more premium position, because he lost CF on the Cubs, and sign a similar yearly opt out contract to play for the big payday.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

He must really believe the QO was a major deterrence last season. Because the offense tanked and the CF defense has been mediocre the entire time. Only thing that makes sense is he would be willing to sacrifice the yearly AAV on a different team that can offer more playing time at the more premium position, because he lost CF on the Cubs, and sign a similar yearly opt out contract to play for the big payday.

Said another way, he proved he was over his injury-related hitting struggles with above average offense(probably stifled 5-10 points of wRC+ by Wrigley's weird 2024), still grades out as a capable CF, isn't burdened by the QO, and is entering a CF market where the only FA competition is Harrison Bader.

[Cuzi]

23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Said another way, he proved he was over his injury-related hitting struggles with above average offense(probably stifled 5-10 points of wRC+ by Wrigley's weird 2024), still grades out as a capable CF, isn't burdened by the QO, and is entering a CF market where the only FA competition is Harrison Bader.

The only difference from last season being the QO and lesser performance out of himself.

[Bertz]

MLB player projections are more or less three years averages with an aging factor sprinkled on.  Having two of your last three years being good vs. two of your last three years being bad is a big difference, even with a lesser platform year.  Specifically, the year he aged past was disastrous to the point he was the 3rd worst hitter in the league.

[Bertz]

Some general predictions/expectations I have before things kick off in earnest:

- The Cubs sign a player to a 9 figure deal, probably a pitcher, probably Max Fried 

- The Cubs acquire someone who is unambiguously the closer.  Jed spends an uncharacteristic (for him) amount on the guy.  Not an insane package for e.g. Mason Miller, but something in line with the Brandon Morrow or Wade Davis acquisitions

- There’s a trade for someone entering his walk year on a healthy salary, maybe two.  An example would be Dylan Cease like Trueblood brought up

- One of the 2nd tier rumor guys (Morosi, Heyman, Bob) lists us pretty high up on Soto at some point, we have two or three days of chaos before Rosenthal or Passan come in with some cold water and it never really gets hot again

- On the position player side the over/under for players added is 3.5, but the over under for guys who would be the primary starter at their position is 0.5

- The team doesn't spend the full $80M it's got before hitting the LT.  They'll say something about having money for the trade deadline, and there's maybe some truth to that, but the bigger reason will be they don't want to enter next offseason already up against the LT, and there's only so many walk year players you can add this winter

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The team doesn't spend the full $80M it's got before hitting the LT.  They'll say something about having money for the trade deadline, and there's maybe some truth to that, but the bigger reason will be they don't want to enter next offseason already up against the LT, and there's only so many walk year players you can add this winter

I won't pretend like it's the most efficient use of resources, but in terms of LT concern for 2026 and (less so) going forward, I could us being in a position similar to where the Astros find themselves with Tucker or Jays find themselves with Vlad. Guys like Happ, Suzuki, Hoerner aren't at that caliber, but I think would still be moderately attractive as trade targets on a one year deal and we would be in a spot where we'd have ready to go replacements in AAA for league minimum. I'm not really advocating for that kind of move before next offseason, but if we make some big splashes this year it's a path to explore. 

[CubinNY]

I don't have specifics, but I want Jed to be bold and put together the best team he can within the budget constraints. 

In many respects, they are stuck in the mud with the contracts of the position players. They need to get creative. I'm not talking about Michael Busch creative either.