Soto free agency thread

[LBiittner]

20 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Busch started 130 games, is 10 years younger, and was way more productive than Goldschmidt at first last year.  What on earth makes you think they'd do something like that?

Counsell played wizzy every opportunity. Whythef did he continue playing that stonehanded k machine?

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Counsell played wizzy every opportunity. Whythef did he continue playing that stonehanded k machine?

Because for his career until about July of this year he hit very well against lefties and soft tossing righties?

[LBiittner]

Our manager continued playing Wisdom over busch right til the bitter end. Managers should be able to tell when someone no longer has the ability.

[Bertz]

37 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Our manager continued playing Wisdom over busch right til the bitter end. Managers should be able to tell when someone no longer has the ability.

Which do you think is more likely:

- The highest paid and generally highest regarded manager in the game is missing this crucial skill that is commonplace among his peers

- You're being unreasonable about how easy it is to differentiate "no longer has the ability" and a simple slump

Edited October 29, 2024 by Bertz
Wording

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Which do you think is more likely:

- The highest paid and generally highest regarded manager in the game is missing this crucial skill you think should be commonplace

- You're being unreasonable about how easy it is to differentiate "no longer has the ability" and a simple slump

 Busch splits were as good if not better than Wisdom .

Simple slump or not, If jed tenders him a contract we deserve what he hath wrought

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

 Busch splits were as good if not better than Wisdom .

Simple slump or not, If jed tenders him a contract we deserve what he hath wrought

Wisdom took roughly 40 less PAs in the 2nd half of the season versus the first. As well, most of those came in September (33 of his 69 total) and a lions' share came when the Cubs were an afterthought in the playoff picture. Wisdom saw 8 PAs before Sept 14th. Meaning of his 69 PAs post ASB, about a third of them came between Sept 14-Sept 28th. 

I think the usage shows the Cubs recognized he was struggling. And I think the uptick over the last 2-3 weeks when the team was all but eliminated shows that the team was probably giving him a little extra garbage time, either as a rest for the good players or as a sendoff for his few years on the North Side. 

I'd be shocked if they tendered him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

52 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

 Busch splits were as good if not better than Wisdom .

Think about how there is a relationship between these two things, and what a playing time distribution that is actually Busch-first looks like.  It might look like Wisdom playing more than it feels like is necessary because Busch is shielded from LHP that are poor matchups, inflating Busch's splits at the expense of Wisdom's(who is not exposed to the weakest LHP).

[LBiittner]

23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Think about how there is a relationship between these two things, and what a playing time distribution that is actually Busch-first looks like.  It might look like Wisdom playing more than it feels like is necessary because Busch is shielded from LHP that are poor matchups, inflating Busch's splits at the expense of Wisdom's(who is not exposed to the weakest LHP).

I get it, but where in the world does a hitter with a negative war, poor slug, an obp of .237, on ops+ of 85 and a ba of .171, and a far below glove deserve starts when 3 or 4 wins makes a difference for post season chances? 

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Wisdom took roughly 40 less PAs in the 2nd half of the season versus the first. As well, most of those came in September (33 of his 69 total) and a lions' share came when the Cubs were an afterthought in the playoff picture. Wisdom saw 8 PAs before Sept 14th. Meaning of his 69 PAs post ASB, about a third of them came between Sept 14-Sept 28th. 

I think the usage shows the Cubs recognized he was struggling. And I think the uptick over the last 2-3 weeks when the team was all but eliminated shows that the team was probably giving him a little extra garbage time, either as a rest for the good players or as a sendoff for his few years on the North Side. 

I'd be shocked if they tendered him.

I don’t see a chance the Cubs tender Wisdom. I also sont think  there is any chance they sign Rizzo. The only person discussed here with any chance of the Cubs signing would be Goldschmidt. And for him it would have to be as a right handed bench bat at a lower salary. My guess is someone would give him more money and more playing time than the Cubs would. And if the Cubs did sign him I would think they would also acquire another, better bat than him, as well. So I wouldn’t give the Cubs more than a 10% chance of signing him. I think they will aim higher. 

[LBiittner]

42 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Think about how there is a relationship between these two things, and what a playing time distribution that is actually Busch-first looks like.  It might look like Wisdom playing more than it feels like is necessary because Busch is shielded from LHP that are poor matchups, inflating Busch's splits at the expense of Wisdom's(who is not exposed to the 

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Wisdom took roughly 40 less PAs in the 2nd half of the season versus the first. As well, most of those came in September (33 of his 69 total) and a lions' share came when the Cubs were an afterthought in the playoff picture. Wisdom saw 8 PAs before Sept 14th. Meaning of his 69 PAs post ASB, about a third of them came between Sept 14-Sept 28th. 

I think the usage shows the Cubs recognized he was struggling. And I think the uptick over the last 2-3 weeks when the team was all but eliminated shows that the team was probably giving him a little extra garbage time, either as a rest for the good players or as a sendoff for his few years on the North Side. 

I'd be shocked if they tendered him.

 

His lack of usage by counsell when he realized he stunk points towards poor roster construction by jed for failing to be proactive and replacing Wisdoms roster spot

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

His lack of usage by counsell when he realized he stunk points towards poor roster construction by jed for failing to be proactive and replacing Wisdoms roster spot

As late as August 24th Patrick Wisdom was still hitting at all league average clip

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

As late as August 24th Patrick Wisdom was still hitting at all league average clip

And in 23’ he had OPS at .947 with slugging at .639 against left handed pitching. There was no reason for him not being in the team in 24’. His OPS+ in 23’ was 112. Again, no reason Jed shouldn’t have been on with him as a bench bat. Easy to look back at 24’ and criticize Jed for having Wisdom. But that is hindsight and either not  realizing Wisdom wasn’t bad prior to last year, or ignoring actual facts just to make an argument. Keep in mind, I am not a fan of Wisdom. I don’t like the homer or K sort of player. But he did get results. And as a bench right handed bat to fill in for Busch occasionally against a left handed pitcher was not a bad plan going into 24’.‘now if he does it again this year, that is a terrible decision. Wisdom isn’t worth a tender based on 24’. 

Edited October 30, 2024 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

His lack of usage by counsell when he realized he stunk points towards poor roster construction by jed for failing to be proactive and replacing Wisdoms roster spot

I'm in no way a major Wisdom fan, but he had done enough entering the season that it made enough sense for him to remain on the roster as a platoon guy with Busch. Was he upgradable? Sure. Did it need to be a priority? Not really. 

He bottomed out this year. I'm sure he will not be here in 2024 outside of maybe some org depth if he's willing to accept an MiLB deal. My guess is he latches on with an Oakland or Chicago South Side as a camp invitee with little in competition for an MLB spot.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm in no way a major Wisdom fan, but he had done enough entering the season that it made enough sense for him to remain on the roster as a platoon guy with Busch. Was he upgradable? Sure. Did it need to be a priority? Not really. 

Well said. Basically my opinion as well. Not a fan of what he brings to the table. But prior to last year it was hard to argue against him being a part of the team, as a bench/platoon bat. 

[squally1313]

Why can't Jed be proactive and remove players from the roster before they have an extended cold streak??? Another failure in the front office, along with signing 2025-2026 Anthony Rizzo for $26m. This guy stinks!

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why can't Jed be proactive and remove players from the roster before they have an extended cold streak??? Another failure in the front office, along with signing 2025-2026 Anthony Rizzo for $26m. This guy stinks!

Don't be hard on jed. You've been following his work for 4 freaking years. Ya know the definition of insanity 🤪 

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

As late as August 24th Patrick Wisdom was still hitting at all league average clip

Then league average must be as potent as a mules dick

[Irrelevant Dude]

11 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Then league average must be as potent as a mules dick

It's also a lot easier to be league average when you typically only bat in the most advantageous platoon situations.  That applies to a lot of guys, not just Wisdom, but I think it is fair to say he was very protected.

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

It's also a lot easier to be league average when you typically only bat in the most advantageous platoon situations.  That applies to a lot of guys, not just Wisdom, but I think it is fair to say he was very protected.

Thank you for pointing this out.

And I've been drinking too much. Lol

Edited October 30, 2024 by LBiittner

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

It's also a lot easier to be league average when you typically only bat in the most advantageous platoon situations.  That applies to a lot of guys, not just Wisdom, but I think it is fair to say he was very protected.

Trying to avoid circular logic here, but, while Wisdom got a disproportionate amount of PAs against LHPs, the theory is that he got his starts/pinch hit opportunities against the high quality lefties (ie, the ones Counsell didn't think Busch could handle). It didn't work on the whole in 2024 (though people above have shown it worked for most of the year), but all in all a 112 wRC against LHP is fine for a bench bat that can be leveraged into those spots. 

[LBiittner]

I'm unclear if wRC includes defense in their calculations? Because I suspect Wisdom tutored Morel on glove work and throwing accuracy

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, LBiittner said:

 Busch splits were as good if not better than Wisdom .

Simple slump or not, If jed tenders him a contract we deserve what he hath wrought

Wisdom had 158 AB's over 6 months.  I'm sure it's really hard if not impossible to put up the same performance as you would getting 100 or 300 more AB's over the course of a season.  Part of it was he probably wanted to get Wisdom a bit of playing time to keep him as sharp as possible.  He's doing no good rotting on the bench.

I get the point though, after 3-4 months you should realize that a certain strategy may not be working and maybe change the strategy.  However, we don't really know if Wisdom's issues were lack of AB's or age regression or just a bad year or something else.  If the Cubs think the power and bat quickness is still there i guess it's possible they bring him back on a cheap deal.  If not they need a replacement.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Wisdom took roughly 40 less PAs in the 2nd half of the season versus the first. As well, most of those came in September (33 of his 69 total) and a lions' share came when the Cubs were an afterthought in the playoff picture. Wisdom saw 8 PAs before Sept 14th. Meaning of his 69 PAs post ASB, about a third of them came between Sept 14-Sept 28th. 

I think the usage shows the Cubs recognized he was struggling. And I think the uptick over the last 2-3 weeks when the team was all but eliminated shows that the team was probably giving him a little extra garbage time, either as a rest for the good players or as a sendoff for his few years on the North Side. 

I'd be shocked if they tendered him.

Maybe in Sept the Cubs wanted to see more of him to help make a decision come this winter.  Hard to say.

[squally1313]

9 hours ago, LBiittner said:

I'm unclear if wRC includes defense in their calculations?

It does not, purely an offensive statistic. 

[Stratos]

Cubs apparently not showing interest in Soto so far.  Would jive with Jeds comment on MLB Network that pitching has been the bulk on his outreach efforts so far.

Quote

The Rays are among the teams that have reached out to Juan Soto’s camp since the opening of free agency last week, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman lists a much less surprising additional six teams that have shown interest: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/rays-among-teams-to-have-reached-out-to-soto.html