Cubs (Hendricks) vs Pirates (Skenes): 8/28/24, 11:35am

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

No one!  Between rest, inevitable injuries, and the possibility of declining performance, this will not be an actual problem in practice.  6 players for 5 spots means everyone averages 135 games.  There are only 4 Cubs currently playing above that rate and 2 of them are Swanson and Hoerner who aren't relevant to this particular dynamic.

Yeah, if the problem is that all of them are healthy at once, that just means they actually get to rest once a week. Not the worst possible outcome.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I do wonder if we’re at that phase. Like I’m not in any rush to move Wicks off a down year. Not sure there’s any fallen top prospect in the Busch mold anyway, maybe Bo Naylor but the Guardians aren’t a reactionary org

Agreed also on not buying low on a SP, at least as a main move. Pay up for Logan Gilbert, tremendous fit 

Yeah as I thought through it, either get an elite bat or throw the money at pitching and let Caissie/Alcantara compete for the the 6th spot in that 6 for 5 spot platoon. 

[LBiittner]

Thinking back now to 23/24 offseason, I'm very happy Jed made the Busch (1B) acquisition with the Dodgers instead of trading for miguel vargas (3B). 

[Tim]

29 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

No one!  Between rest, inevitable injuries, and the possibility of declining performance, this will not be an actual problem in practice.  6 players for 5 spots means everyone averages 135 games.  There are only 4 Cubs currently playing above that rate and 2 of them are Swanson and Hoerner who aren't relevant to this particular dynamic.

That works a lot better with the OF's than someone like Alonso. If you get a 1B as the big bat addition, then the rotation becomes harder. Not impossible, but not as efficient, either. Unless you buy into Busch as a viable 2B/3B.

(Yes, I really also want to find excuses to not pursue Alonso. I'd be willing to make it work for Vlad)

[LBiittner]

Question for someone who knows pitching:

Is carlos Estevez the type of pitcher jed should look for 2025?

Having spent a few years pitching in Colorado, has he been emotionally challenged? 

Is he a ground baller? Pitch to contact? Stiker-outer? Or just another guy to fill out a bullpen?

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

That works a lot better with the OF's than someone like Alonso. If you get a 1B as the big bat addition, then the rotation becomes harder. Not impossible, but not as efficient, either. Unless you buy into Busch as a viable 2B/3B.

(Yes, I really also want to find excuses to not pursue Alonso. I'd be willing to make it work for Vlad)

I wouldn't bet my 401k on it, but the team being so blase about the LT makes me think they have no intention of signing a QO free agent this winter.  So Alonso probably doesn't need to take up too much of you worry.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Tim said:

That works a lot better with the OF's than someone like Alonso. If you get a 1B as the big bat addition, then the rotation becomes harder. Not impossible, but not as efficient, either. Unless you buy into Busch as a viable 2B/3B.

(Yes, I really also want to find excuses to not pursue Alonso. I'd be willing to make it work for Vlad)

1B is part of the 5 spots, but yes it is marginally more difficult if the addition is 1B/DH only.  But only marginally, there's sufficient positional flexibility in the group already that it's far from overloaded.

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

That works a lot better with the OF's than someone like Alonso. If you get a 1B as the big bat addition, then the rotation becomes harder. Not impossible, but not as efficient, either. Unless you buy into Busch as a viable 2B/3B.

(Yes, I really also want to find excuses to not pursue Alonso. I'd be willing to make it work for Vlad)

I'm thinking he stays a Mets. They like him and they have $.

 

[Tim]

Just now, LBiittner said:

I'm thinking he stays a Mets. They like him and they have $.

 

I'm not as sure with Stearns. 

[Outshined_One]

The Cubs are in such a weird spot with SP next season.

Steele and Imanaga are pretty much locks for the 1-2 spot, Taillon and Assad are serviceable back end types, and then you have a whole bunch of question marks.  Ideally, Brown comes back healthy and you ride him until he breaks again, but Wicks and Horton should also presumably be healthy and ready to go come Spring Training 2025.  Kilian and Wesneski are kinda sorta there and might put *something* together.  Birdsell is also intriguing, but he doesn't quite have the apparent ceiling everyone else does.

I think a trade makes the most sense to clear the decks and lock down the #3 spot, but it obviously depends on who's available.

[LBiittner]

11 minutes ago, Tim said:

I'm not as sure with Stearns. 

I thought I read somewhere Stearns offered in the neighborhood of 24mil per? I might be  hallucinating? 

Regardless, I can't remove the vision of Pete running down the line and the belly flop head first slide into home during the Happ to madrigil relay to amaya to save the game for the beloved

Edited August 29, 2024 by LBiittner

[Stratos]

On 8/28/2024 at 1:12 PM, CubinNY said:

Neither of those two are third basemen.

Shaw has played 54 games at 3B this season which is over twice as many as any other position.  He's played the overwhelming majority of his games in Iowa at 3B also.  You're right about Triantos, he hasn't played there at all this year and barely at all last year, probably just in a punch, they don't seem to like him at 3B from the prospect writeups.

But yeah I'm not sure they'd go with Shaw over Paredes, but it says Paredes is hitting .140 since the ASB so if he continues to slump they wouldn't have much to lose I guess.  It would be a pretty big desperation move unless there's the injury thing with Paredes that gets worse.

Cubs are 29th in the MLB this year in total WAR from the 3B position at -0.7 WAR, yikes.  Gotta think they probably give Paredes at least a couple of months to start the season next year before Shaw becomes a replacement option.  It would be fantastic if Paredes does well for us and they could afford to trade Nico eventually (or possibly Swanson...less likely) and put Shaw or Triantos at 2B.

Edited August 29, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

On 8/28/2024 at 1:16 PM, CubinNY said:

Kyle in trouble already. I feel bad for him, but he's done. 

Yeah I gotta agree.  I wonder if he plays next year.  I'm sure a team would give him a flier, would depend on how much he likes to pitch, i'm sure a huge paycut is coming.

I kinda wonder how much the sticky stuff crackdown has affected him.  Could have affected his feel and command.  The velo is still there.  Just from seeing on TV the sinker just doesn't seem to be there anymore too the last few years, or the movement on the change.

Edited August 29, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

On 8/28/2024 at 1:18 PM, Irrelevant Dude said:

There was a short period where it looked like he was turning things around somewhat, but now he's heading back the other direction.  I think you are right.

Hendricks has the lowest K% since his rookie year and the highest walk rate of his career.  Gotta think he's close to done.  His margin for error is just so low now, the stuff is so hittable.  When he's not on he gets creamed.

[Wilson A2000]

Thank you, Castellanos

[Stratos]

On 8/28/2024 at 4:49 PM, mul21 said:

Yeah, this doesn't just feel like a hot streak.  He's obviously not going to OPS 1.500 or whatever he has over the last week but between the approach and how many hard hit balls we've seen, it looks sustainable to a degree.

Not to be a buzz-kill but I'm trying to remind myself that we've been playing the post-deadline Pirates, Marlins, Tigers, Jays, and White Sox the last few weeks...and got swept by Cleveland.  I think PCA has been looking better obviously but i'm staying cautiously optimistic and prepared in case this is mostly just a hot streak.  Same with Amaya and obviously Betancourt.  These guys and this team weren't hitting the bad pitchers earlier in the year so i'll give them some credit now.

[Stratos]

On 8/28/2024 at 5:03 PM, Tryptamine said:

Crazy to me that PCA is playing at 3 fwar per 162 while sporting an 81 wRC+ prior to this game. Is he seriously around a 5 fWAR player if he's just a league average bat?

He's also been hitting 8th.  If he were hitting 1st or 2nd he'd be getting more PA's to add to the WAR.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt Bellinger opts out. But even if he doesn’t the Cubs can still make a trade for a big bat or sign a bat from the next tier of guys (not Soto). As in your scenario that would give them 10 guys for 9 positions. If it was Chapman they signed then Paredes would play all infield spots giving guys a day off. Again, I am fine with that. Then trade for a front line starter. Skubal would be awesome.

Or they can trade for Vlad and sign a pitcher. With the flexibility guys like Vlad, Paredes, Busch, Nico and Bellinger give you they can mix and match 10 guys for 9 positions. 

I think the Cubs have their INF in the org for next year.  With Busch and Bellinger on the the team they can both play 1B, with Bellesteros possible as well at 1B/DH if not C.  Paredes and Shaw are solid options for 3B and far cheaper than Chapman, who will be 32 next year.

I think they have more of a chance to sign Soto than the large majority of big FA's the last several years.  That might make one of Happ/Seiya/Bellinger expendable and I think they'd trade Bellinger to make more payroll room and the other 2 have no-trade clauses which I don't think Belli has.

If not Soto then look for a top SP or maybe a bat elsewhere.  Guerrero sure would be nice.  I don't know a ton about Skubal other than the basics.  Skubal has thrown twice the innings as last season after a year off from injury which seems pretty stupid by the Tigers.  If its me I consider shutting him down for Sept or drastically reducing his pitch count.

 

[PackLandVA]

MEGA THREAD ACTIVATE!!!

[Stratos]

Thoughts on Wednesday's game:

- Having Hendricks throw 70 pitches over 2 innings on a hot day is a wild managerial decision.  I was yelling at the TV.  Counsell's hook is consistently slow.  Maybe that's a comment on our bullpen for much of the year.

- Happ whiffed on an easy roller in the OF, was a bit slow on the pop-up that dropped between him, Paredes, and Swanson, and got horribly picked off on a play at 1B due to absent-mindedness.  He plays every day and I know its not an effort thing with that guy so it looks like he could use a day off and some games at DH.  Hopefully Thurs off helps a bit.

- Those are some of the toughest plays to make in the field but that was Swanson's ball.  He's making 25m more than PCA a year and needs to hustle a little more sometimes.  I'm ok that he wants to preserve energy for the 162 but c'mon.

- This was one of the best worst games i've ever seen.  Down 10-3 and scoring 11 unanswered runs is insane.

- We've won these games we've needed to, let's keep going vs Nats (We see DJ Herz on Sat)

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

No one!  Between rest, inevitable injuries, and the possibility of declining performance, this will not be an actual problem in practice.  6 players for 5 spots means everyone averages 135 games.  There are only 4 Cubs currently playing above that rate and 2 of them are Swanson and Hoerner who aren't relevant to this particular dynamic.

We need to leave room for Matt Mervis.

jk

Edited August 30, 2024 by Stratos

[mul21]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Not to be a buzz-kill but I'm trying to remind myself that we've been playing the post-deadline Pirates, Marlins, Tigers, Jays, and White Sox the last few weeks...and got swept by Cleveland.  I think PCA has been looking better obviously but i'm staying cautiously optimistic and prepared in case this is mostly just a hot streak.  Same with Amaya and obviously Betancourt.  These guys and this team weren't hitting the bad pitchers earlier in the year so i'll give them some credit now.

I'd argue that going 2-2 against Skenes, one of which was a 103 EV rope, tells me he's seeing the ball well against pretty much all the pitchers.  He's had a few hits off lefty specialists lately too.  Feels more real than smoke and mirrors to me.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, mul21 said:

I'd argue that going 2-2 against Skenes, one of which was a 103 EV rope, tells me he's seeing the ball well against pretty much all the pitchers.  He's had a few hits off lefty specialists lately too.  Feels more real than smoke and mirrors to me.

Let's hope you're right!