Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-20-24

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Toledo, 5:35 pm
Tennessee vs. Pensacola, 6:00 pm
South Bend vs. Beloit, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach at Charleston, 6:05 pm
DSL Cubs Blue vs. DSL Arizona Red, 10:00 am - season finale
DSL Cubs Red vs. DSL Padres Gold, 9:00 am - season finale

Probable Starters:

Iowa: LHP Jordan Wicks (rehab)
Tennessee: RHP Sam Armstrong (22 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 18 K, 8 BB)
South Bend: RHP Grant Kipp (22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 23 K, 15 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP JP Yenrri Rojas (50.1 IP, 2.86 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 28 K, 14 BB)

[CubinNY]

Didn’t know where to put this 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Fernando Cruz in the DSL Cubs Red season finale. He was pulled early from yesterday's game.

Madeira: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K in his final start of the season.

[Tim]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Didn’t know where to put this 

 

It's a bit less impressive when you back to 2006 (first data FG has at that level in the filter)

There are a few misses in there, a few more that were okay players, and then a bunch of studs. Still great company to be in, just not as impressive as the last 10 years.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Emilio Ramos finished his fantastic DSL season with 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K - 1.55 ERA and a 9.64 K/9.

He'll be 19 all next season so I assume he'll be in Arizona.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.thecubreporter.com/brennen-davis-back-action-reggie-preciado-clutch-hr-ties-angels-sloan-park

Quote

Reggie Preciado belted a game-tying two-run HR for the ACL Cubs in the bottom of 8th.    

Brennen Davis (on AAA Iowa 7-day IL - stress fracture in lower back) saw his first game action since July 2nd, played five innings in LF, and went 0-2 (F-8 to the warning track in CF in his 1st AB, and an F-9 to the warning track in RF in his second and final PA). 

BJ Murray (on the AAA Iowa 7-day IL since July 24th) served as a DH in the game and went 0-3, reaching on an E-6 (shortstop dropped an infield pop fly) in his 1st AB, grounding out to SS his second time up, and striking out (swinging) in his final PA. 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

Kind of funny, Owen Caissie had an 111.5 MPH groundout that is, to this point, the hardest hit ball in AAA tonight.

Much better from Wicks.  Velo still down a bit, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do one more rehab outing, but still good stuff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cam Smith HR

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Cam Smith HR

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

29 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Psh, needs to do it when it counts 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Robin Ortíz received $400k this 1/15 signing period, making him the second biggest amateur IFA signing this year.

[Bertz]

I'm really interested to see where opinions net out on Cristian Hernandez over the winter.

Because of his amateur pedigree his first couple years in the org he got a lot of leash, too much if we're being honest, with little production to back it up.  

This year the production has shown up yet the vibes still seem on a downward trajectory.  Is this a classic case of a guy who will get a bump once offseason reports come in?  Are there red flags in his Statcast data we're not privvy too?  Opinions souring on his defense?

Because while his production this year is not entirely unimpeachable, nothing I can see would be considered more than a yellow flag.  

[Jason Ross]

My best guess on the Cristian Hernandez thing is two fold:

1. I think he's always going to carry the weight of "baby-A-Rod" regardless of how much we know these things shouldn't matter. When you set hype at that level, even really smart people can be blinded or let down due to a bias. 

2. I think he's going to bear the weight of his slow start to his professional career. Realistically, starting him at Myrtle at 18, the assumption would be 1 year = 1 level up. Being that he's still at South Bend, even though we know development isn't linear, and that he's still young and has plenty of time, I think people are going to remain cautious on their rankings. 

I'd expect, even this winter, people to be safe with their rankings. It's easier to claim breakout and be hyped about him if he crushes it in 2025 rather than be the guy who boosts him up only for him to struggle based on his past.

[Tryptamine]

Even if we took away the mega bonus pedigree and the several years of struggles, you're still looking at a kid in his 20 year old season who by reports is a solid defender at SS, who just got done putting up a 133 wRC+ at A ball and, albeit in a sample, is torching A+ with a 163 wRC+. He has a slightly above average BB%, a slightly better than average K% and has stolen 38 bags in 43 attempts this year. He's also graded to have 50 FV power potential. The season ends today I have him in the back half of the top ten with Shaw/Horton/Alcantra/Ballesteros/Caissie/Rojas and Smith ahead of him and Triantos/Wiggins fighting with him for 8/9/10.  

[JBears79]

He's solidly in the 10-15 range for me. We were probably too hyped up on originally while at the same time being too hard on him. To be honest, I never soured on him due to his age but a bunch of better prospects just passed him up due to being more advanced in their development.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Even if we took away the mega bonus pedigree and the several years of struggles, you're still looking at a kid in his 20 year old season who by reports is a solid defender at SS, who just got done putting up a 133 wRC+ at A ball and, albeit in a sample, is torching A+ with a 163 wRC+. He has a slightly above average BB%, a slightly better than average K% and has stolen 38 bags in 43 attempts this year. He's also graded to have 50 FV power potential. The season ends today I have him in the back half of the top ten with Shaw/Horton/Alcantra/Ballesteros/Caissie/Rojas and Smith ahead of him and Triantos/Wiggins fighting with him for 8/9/10.  

Oh, I don't really agree with what I was saying - more so where I think he's going to rank on industry-wide areas. I think he'll find himself as a top-12 or so prospect in the Cubs system but that many people will be bearish with him overall. 

Development is anything but linear. Players struggle and grow at different rates and different rates at different levels. But I suspect the industry will remain "lower" on him than more Cub-centric blogs and rankings for the reasons I explained. I like Hernandez I just think writers will be cautious but that it might not mean much.

[allen6510w]

17 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Robin Ortíz received $400k this 1/15 signing period, making him the second biggest amateur IFA signing this year.

Yes, the Cubs put nearly all of their eggs in the Fernando Cruz bucket.   I'll be curious to see if Robin moves up to the ACL next season.  His in-game power is more projected than real at this time.  He could remain in the DSL as lesser but older "prospects" with arguably better numbers such as Derik Alcantara, Eli Lovich, Darlyn DeLeon and Alexey Lumpuy patrol the ACL outfield but perhaps the Cubs would like their stateside staff to work with him.  He is a year younger than Eli Lovich.  Also, Lumpuy might be given an opportunity to open in low-A  - so that could clear a spot.