Twins (Lopez) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 8/6/24, 7:05pm

[squally1313]

Catchers aged 27 or younger by fWAR since the beginning of last year

1. William Contreras 8.7
2. Adley 8.1
3. Raleigh 7.3
4. Bailey 6.5
5. Moreno 4.7
6. Alvarez (Mets) 4.6
7. Diaz (Astros) 4.2
8. Jeffers 3.9
9. Kirk 3.7
10. Naylor 3.5
11. Wells 2.9
12. O;Hoppe 2.5

Honestly the name that stands out to me is Raleigh. He hits bombs but K rate is 30%, career OBP is below .300 and they're very much struggling for offense. They also have Harry Ford down in AA who is their top prospect, not a for sure thing catcher but playing there predominantly. Their outfield besides Julio is pretty dire, Mitch Haniger looks broken, Victor Robles is their current starting center fielder? Justin Turner is their DH? It's pretty bleak.

Give them Amaya and some combo of Caissie, Alcantara, Mo Baller. Go sign Soto. Win the World Series. 

[Cuzi]

Raleigh stands out, but he's also on a playoff team. So why would they trade him for prospects when Ford is still in AA. Nevermind that catcher is not a position where a prospect is blocked, so it's not like Raleigh and Ford can't coexist on the same roster. Raleigh still has 3 years or arbitration. He likely wont get moved, if he does get moved, til the end of that 3 years.

Mariners situation mirrors what the Phillies went through a couple years ago. They had O'Hoppe in AA and Realmuto on the MLB team. You dont trade the successful MLB guy when you are a playoff team.

Edited August 7, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Raleigh stands out, but he's also on a playoff team. So why would they trade him for prospects when Ford is still in AA.

Mariners are basically a coin flip to make the playoffs right now, 21st in wRC while being 3rd in pitching. If they miss the playoffs, think it's logical they decide to trade defense for offense. Raleigh is their most valuable non-pitcher this year, comfortably, by total value, but it's driven heavily by defensive metrics (3rd in baseball overall since last year). 

I did forget about Arozarena and his seemingly endless team control, so I guess they're only really looking for one outfield slot, but their DH and 1B production has also been a disaster. Their Top 10 prospect list, by position, goes C/SS/2B/2B/CF (in A ball)/SS/SP/SP/DH (in A ball)/RP. They need bats, probably cheaply. They can reset the team control clock with Ford probably by late next year and pick up a couple top 50 bat first, essentially MLB ready prospects to slot into the outfield, first, second (also opens up next year), or DH. 

[CubinNY]

I love The Big Dumper but I think it would take a fantastic overpay to get him from the Ms

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, CubUgly said:

I can't believe their still pairing those two together.  It's so obvious they don't care for each other it's awkward for everyone - especially us!

I like Boog but he's a know-it-all and Girardi is from the old school era, obviously not the same intensity of analytics guy Boog is.  I think Boog just needs to chill a bit and stop fighting with the guy on every point, even if he's right most of the time.  He doesn't need to always be right for his own ego.

Edited August 7, 2024 by Stratos

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I love The Big Dumper but I think it would take a fantastic overpay to get him from the Ms

Maybe. DiPoto loves making moves. The contractual details on non-roster players at the bottom of the Cots/now Baseball Prospectus excel is like 35 rows deep.

But also....everyone is pretty much in agreement that we want to spend big on an elite bat right? One in particular, but either way something similar. If we go that route, we'll have Happ, Swanson, Cody (probably), Seiya, Hoerner, Paredes, Busch, and Big Elite Bat all reasonably locked into starting spots through 2026. That's 8 non-catchers. And then you have PCA, Shaw, Alcantara, Caissie, Ballesteros, Triantos, six guys, all of them having spent the second half in AAA or Chicago. You can try to maximize every individual value, or you can just...go for it and regret it later. Include Nico if you want to offset some salary, Suzuki if they want a pretty guaranteed plus bat. From the list above there's like 6 options. Might as well have one. 

[JHBulls]

…

Wrong thread. 

Edited August 7, 2024 by JHBulls

[We Got The Whole 9]

Would the Astros take Alcantara, Triantos+ for Tucker? We need to think big, I'm in full agreement.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Would the Astros take Alcantara, Triantos+ for Tucker? We need to think big, I'm in full agreement.

I'm making this up on the fly, but I think, to the extent we feel at least somewhat comfortable with Shaw or Triantos at third next year, the Tucker trade starts with Paredes. Let them and the Crawford boxes reap the benefits of Paredes' profile. If Bellinger opts out, you've plenty of money to lock in Tucker long term and also get a starter. If he stays, you make some tough decisions on flipping on whoever is left from the PCA/Caissie/Alcantara group. 

[Cuzi]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm making this up on the fly, but I think, to the extent we feel at least somewhat comfortable with Shaw or Triantos at third next year, the Tucker trade starts with Paredes. Let them and the Crawford boxes reap the benefits of Paredes' profile. If Bellinger opts out, you've plenty of money to lock in Tucker long term and also get a starter. If he stays, you make some tough decisions on flipping on whoever is left from the PCA/Caissie/Alcantara group. 

Dont see it.

Tucker has 1 year left. Paredes has 3 years left. Tucker is better than Paredes but Paredes' years make him more valuable. Houston would be the team adding on in the trade, not the Cubs, and they have nothing to add on to make up the gap in years.

I would say something like Alcantara + BJ Murray + Birdsell + Mervis for Tucker.

I doubt the Astros have any interest in Triantos, given that they have Altuve at 2B. They have nothing at 1B now and will have nothing at 3B next year, assuming they dont re-sign Bregman. They've also got nothing in the pipeline at those spots.

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Dont see it.

Tucker has 1 year left. Paredes has 3 years left. Tucker is better than Paredes but Paredes' years make him more valuable. Houston would be the team adding on in the trade, not the Cubs, and they have nothing to add on to make up the gap in years.

I would say something like Alcantara + BJ Murray + Birdsell + Mervis for Tucker.

I doubt the Astros have any interest in Triantos, given that they have Altuve at 2B. They have nothing at 1B now and will have nothing at 3B next year, assuming they dont re-sign Bregman. They've also got nothing in the pipeline at those spots.

Tucker has been more valuable in 60 games this year than Paredes has in 109. I mean, we just got Paredes for Chris Morel and everyone was thrilled we didn't touch the actual prospects. But if you want to meet in the middle and do it straight up, I'm even more in. 

[Cuzi]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Tucker has been more valuable in 60 games this year than Paredes has in 109. I mean, we just got Paredes for Chris Morel and everyone was thrilled we didn't touch the actual prospects. But if you want to meet in the middle and do it straight up, I'm even more in. 

I already said that Tucker is better than Paredes. You don't seem to understand the value in years, though.

Just because the Rays love Morel and we got Paredes for cheap doesn't mean you take that gift and turn around to trade it for 1 year of Tucker.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

I already said that Tucker is better than Paredes. You don't seem to understand the value in years, though.

Just because the Rays love Morel and we got Paredes for cheap doesn't mean you take that gift and turn around to trade it for 1 year of Tucker.

Well I think he's markedly better, and I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the next 2 years given the contract situation of the rest of the team, so the step up in 2025 means a lot. And I'm putting pretty significant value on the 12 month head start we'd have in signing him to an extension. Tucker becomes that elite bat, and you have a year where you don't have to compete with the other 29 teams. 

It's funny how everyone is always terrified to trade with the Rays but we somehow got a 'gift' from them. Paredes has been outpacing his xwOBA for years. He's an elite hitter in Tampa and a good hitter elsewhere. What works in Tampa works in Houston. He's someone who would be uniquely valuable to them. We should take advantage of it. 

[Cuzi]

The Astros have had all the time in the world with him to get an extension done and they have been pretty good about extending their star players. Tucker has been holding out for FA. Doesn't matter how much time you have with him to get an extension in place, that means nothing in the trade at hand. You are trading 3 years of control of a 3-4 WAR player for 1 year of control of a 5 WAR player. Straight up? Can take that and shove it up your ass.

The Cubs have enough prospects that they dont have to include Paredes in a trade for Tucker. Why the hell would they include him?

What I proposed is in line with what the Yankees gave up for 1 year of Juan Soto. The difference being I proposed giving up a better prospect to compensate for the lack of MLB return involved.

Edited August 7, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Can take that and shove it up your ass.

Look we just traded Christopher Morel, -0.2 fWAR YTD, to a team that is very well known for being incredibly intelligent. That's the market for Paredes. It was literally set 10 days ago. We both see the fWAR totals for him, but it's clear that there are significant concerns that he won't be able to sustain those going forward (and/or in a different stadium). 

Tucker has been quoted as being open to a extension, the ownership has been quoted as calling the CBT thresholds a cap. Both of those could be gamesmanship. But it's possible that they are deciding to spend the $35m/year he's going to command elsewhere. 

[Cuzi]

So Paredes was only worth -0.2 fWAR to a very intelligent team and that set the market.

And in your mind that means he's worth a top 5 bat in baseball?

Make it make sense. Is he good or not?

Edited August 7, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

So Paredes was only worth -0.2 fWAR to a very intelligent team and that set the market.

And in your mind that means he's worth a top 5 bat in baseball?

Make it make sense. Is he good or not?

RIght, because, as you mentioned a couple times, the years of control. 

I think the gap here, to oversimplify, is that you think Paredes is like a 75% version of Tucker, and you're doing the math on 3 years v 1 year and coming up with Paredes being worth 2.25x. In my mind, I think he's closer to 50%, which would make it 1.5x, and I'm putting significant weight on that increase in production for next year (basically, 2025>>2027). 

Also want to reiterate the unique value Paredes brings to the Astros. Three more expected home runs there (25) this year than in Tampa (22). 13(!) more than in Wrigley. Purely value wise and how I'm discounting future value, I think it's about even. But it logically makes sense to see Paredes as uniquely valuable to Houston and consider finding a way to exploit that. 

[Cuzi]

Can we emphasize the unique value Paredes bring to the Cubs in that we got a guy you think is 50% more valuable than Kyle Tucker for -0.2 fWAR?

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Cuzi said:

MLB ready? No one sticks out.

The Royals are pretty close to being in the same situation as the Rays were at 3B. They've got Perez for another year, Fermin who has been solid, and 2 catching prospects in their top 5. Would they trade Fermin?

Mayyyyyybe buy low on Bo Naylor?

Ford and Teel for fast rising AA catchers looking at midseason callups next year that are on teams with established MLB catchers.

The real question is, do the Cubs believe that Ballesteros can stick at catcher. If they dont, and they lock up the DH spot with Suzuki or someone else like Vlad, is there another team with a catcher that believes they can make him stick at catcher long term? Would the Angels unload O'Hoppe for Ballesteros and a couple other guys?

Catcher is just bleak.

Catcher is tough position to find guys that can hit obviously, and you usually are looking at 2 of them to find.  Last year the league average for team totals at the catcher position was about 2.0 WAR and 92 wRC+.

If they can find someone who is good that's great, but I'd be more than happy with something around league average output on our catching combo, or even a bit below average who are very solid defensively and working with pitchers.  Someone like Gomes before this year was solid enough.  I think there's something to be said about catchers with experience knowing the hitters/teams around the league and adding intangible value to the pitching staff.

Catching prospects are notorious for flaming out offensively so i'm not all that keen in trading good prospects at other positions for them.  if they trade real value for a catcher i'd like someone with a few years & results in the league.

Edited August 7, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

Re: Paredes, Hoyer mentioned after the trade that they had been working on that deal for a while, I think he said for like a month before the deadline, and that there were a lot of teams bidding on him.

[squally1313]

26 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Can we emphasize the unique value Paredes bring to the Cubs in that we got a guy you think is 50% more valuable than Kyle Tucker for -0.2 fWAR?

Might have worded that wrong. I think Tucker in any given year is probably twice as valuable than Paredes (Paredes is 50% as valuable, said another way) . I'll take 2x production in 2025 as a trade off for losing Paredes' production in 2026/2027 (offset by what I still believe is a valuable 12 month head start in working on a contract extension).

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Catcher is tough position to find guys that can hit obviously, and you usually are looking at 2 of them to find.  Last year the league average for team totals at the catcher position was about 2.0 WAR and 92 wRC+.

If they can find someone who is good that's great, but I'd be more than happy with something around league average output on our catching combo, or even a bit below average who are very solid defensively and working with pitchers.  Someone like Gomes before this year was solid enough.  I think there's something to be said about catchers with experience knowing the hitters/teams around the league and adding intangible value to the pitching staff.

Catching prospects are notorious for flaming out offensively so i'm not all that keen in trading good prospects at other positions for them.  if they trade real value for a catcher i'd like someone with a few years & results in the league.

Logan O'Hoppe please.

[JD94]

21 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Logan O'Hoppe please.

This is where I’m at. I mean what are the Angels doing? They couldn’t win with Trout and Ohtani. They keep drafting players who can get to the big leagues the fastest rather than maybe higher upside guys. They need to start over. Come up with a new plan. O’Hoppe will be gone before they ever compete again. They are a mess. 14 games under .500 currently with no light at the end of the tunnel. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. 
 

We have a logjam of almost ready prospects and big leaguers still under control past this year. I’d imagine you could sell them on needing to change their strategy and we are a perfect match. It’s honestly beneficial for both sides. 

[JD94]

34 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

He’d be my choice, literally would eat a quart of black raspberry ice-d cream to make it happen.

O’Hoppe’s a total pipe dream. He, Schanuel, Neto, Rengifo, and Moore are looking like a strong potential IF next year 

Neto, Schanuel, and Renigfo have a combined 4.2 fWAR. What exactly makes that strong? Even with O’Hoppe added in, it’s 6.4. And by Moore, you mean Christian Moore? Their 1st round pick from a month ago? That’s….. quite a lofty expectation to set by saying that’s “strong.” I’m selling all the Angels stock and them being anywhere near strong any time soon. They are a mess and have been for many years now. I’m not just saying this because I wish they would trade us O’Hoppe. They have many holes to fill before they are anywhere near competitive again. And I’d be shocked if that came in the window they have O’Hoppe. 

[JD94]

58 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Probably a bunch of other information you're leaving out on purpose, right? Like what does their 2024 WAR have to do with 2025 performance? O'Hoppe came into this season with a .3  career WAR. Did that make him a Bad player coming into the year? If you live in a binary that doesn't exist and never has, maybe that answer is yes, but otherwise...Neto's a + defensive SS with power and approach, O'Hoppe does the same at  catcher, Schanuel's only improved as the year has gone on plus has a strong background, Renfrigo's been a cromulent starter for 3 years now and probably the most likely in the bunch to slip next year

No more lofty than expecting them to hand over O'Hoppe because total rebuilds are the only Plan this fan base has been conditioned to consider. Moore would be the third straight first round pick in that org to move up to the MLs, and has a lengthy track record of hitting. He's  already in AA, with a HR, after picking up  6 (3 XBHs including another HR) hits in his first 12 pro PAs.

Sure, but you also openly admit that a factor in leaning this way is you want the 24 YO pre-arb star catcher on the roster at a trade price convenient to Cubs. I'm not saying it's impossible but like....probably you're not going to get away with unnamed close prospects and ML scraps to this franchise you believe is years and years away

I'm not particularly optimistic about Naylor being available either because teams (have to) consider more than WAR and the last 15 minutes or less pretty parts of a young-er, cheap player's career

No. You’re guessing they become “strong” players. They are all pretty average to below average minus O’Hoppe. Neto is 17th among SS in WAR. Schanuel is 15th. Renigfo is 26th. Moore was playing college baseball 2 months ago. I mean are we just assuming that every young MLB player will be a star because they are below average but have a couple tools? Some will, sure. But you can’t say they will take another step. This could just as easily be their ceiling. 
 

yes, they are still young. But again, it’s all a guess what they will become. Your word were strong next year and to be strong, they would all have to make significant jumps. Players developing and improving isn’t binary. Just because O’Hoppe took a leap, doesn’t mean they all will take a big leap and become above average over the offseason. 
 

Also I never said the Angels should trade him to us for a convenient price. I said we have a logjam of prospects and have the resources to trade from those prospects for a ready made big leaguer. I never said “hey the Angels should give us their best player for Matt Mervis and Brandon Birdsell.”
 

They aren’t ready to compete. We are. We have multiple intriguing legit prospects. They have somebody that can help us now. I said it makes sense for both sides. I never said it would happen or they should do it. That’s not my decision. I just said it makes sense. And it does. The Angels need to look in the mirror and realize they are a mess. Horrible farm system and they are 14 games under even with all these guys. There is only 4 teams in baseball with a worse record than them. They need to tear it down. A prospect haul for O’Hoppe and drafting highly because they suck so bad would be a good start. Again, Moore could come up and put up a 7 WAR next season as a rookie, and it still doesn’t change the fact that they are a mess almost entirely with nothing (really) coming down the pipe to help and not an attractive destination for free agents while also having a ton of dead money on the books as it is for years to come.