Cubs Trading for Isaac Paredes?!

[LBiittner]

If we can dream, let's dream big

[UMFan83]

43 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hahaha as the resident pessimistic stat guy, I nominate you to keep a running tally of warning track outs.

Yeesh, I'm actually attempting to be like smart about baseball analysis today and this is the response I get lol

I thought it was a worthwhile thing to point out🤷‍♂️

Edited July 29, 2024 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Yeesh, I'm actually attempting to be like smart about baseball analysis today and this is the response I get lol

I thought it was a worthwhile thing to point out🤷‍♂️

No that was entirely in jest. Aware I've generally been more down on Morel than most, but think the cost of getting a player with Paredes' surface level appeal means that both teams priced in the home run reduction that you'd expect from those stats. Ultimately for me, even if you over-regress down to like, a .700 OPS, that's still a clear upgrade that you happily toss in two non-top 20 prospects to lock in. 

[UMFan83]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

No that was entirely in jest. Aware I've generally been more down on Morel than most, but think the cost of getting a player with Paredes' surface level appeal means that both teams priced in the home run reduction that you'd expect from those stats. Ultimately for me, even if you over-regress down to like, a .700 OPS, that's still a clear upgrade that you happily toss in two non-top 20 prospects to lock in. 

100%.  It would be really hard to lose this trade IMO, even if the Rays are able to "fix" Morel and turn him into a star.

[UMFan83]

Had no idea his first name was pronounced "E-sock".  Good to know

Edited July 29, 2024 by UMFan83

[itsmedave]

Good setup for 2025 and beyond.  I hate to lose prospects, but I feel this one will pay off.  

[mfcubs22]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'd say this opens up RF, with Seiya going to DH. There's a lot of RF available in FA.

I’d do that for Soto. I’d do just about anything for Soto. But I don’t think Seiya is the butcher that a handful of truly awful little league style misplays make him out to be. FG has his +2 DRS this year. BS isn’t quite as kind with OAA this season, but he was positive OAA last season. 

Basically if you’re not getting Soto, you’re likely better off letting Caissie have a crack at RF if you want to go the Seiya DH most days route. I’d still prefer Vlad as I think you need at least one hitter better than Seiya to really fortify the lineup and score runs more consistently. 

[CubUgly]

9 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Paredes is what we hoped Morel would've been. 

Agreed, they are about the same age and one has produced at the major league level at a fairly significantly better clip than the other. 

Now I hear it said that Parades' underlying numbers say his production is a bit suspect while we've been hearing all Morel's underlying numbers show just pure bad luck, at least until the last month where even that excuse is not as valid.

I've been through enough of these underlying numbers things to where I'm tired of waiting and hoping on those to come around, I'm good with choosing actual production. 

[Bertz]

Fun little benefit I just thought of: the team can now have a normal functioning bench instead needing like three of them to also figure into the 3B mix.

[BigbadB]

43 minutes ago, itsmedave said:

Good setup for 2025 and beyond.  I hate to lose prospects, but I feel this one will pay off.  

Welcome! While it's never fun trading prospects, these were not top prospects by any means, and the Cubs will still need to move more of them before the deadline or this coming offseason or risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft. Can't protect them all and there may not be a lot of room on the big league roster in 2025. 

 

[CubinNY]

21 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Agreed, they are about the same age and one has produced at the major league level at a fairly significantly better clip than the other. 

Now I hear it said that Parades' underlying numbers say his production is a bit suspect while we've been hearing all Morel's underlying numbers show just pure bad luck, at least until the last month where even that excuse is not as valid.

I've been through enough of these underlying numbers things to where I'm tired of waiting and hoping on those to come around, I'm good with choosing actual production. 

Even if you don’t focus on the pull side power, Paredes does not have the slugging potential of Morel. At the current time and likely into the future he is the more complete baseball player. But he’s not what people hoped Morel would become. That would be Manny Machado minus the personality. 

[CUBDOM4life]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Fun little benefit I just thought of: the team can now have a normal functioning bench instead needing like three of them to also figure into the 3B mix.

That is a fun little benefit. It also means no more Miles Mastrobuoni in the daily lineup. This trade upgrades the team immediately in more ways than one for sure.

[LBiittner]

10 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Had no idea his first name was pronounced "E-sock".  Good to know

I hope he plays tonight. Mlb gives players what, 3 days to report ?

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, mfcubs22 said:

I’d do that for Soto. I’d do just about anything for Soto. But I don’t think Seiya is the butcher that a handful of truly awful little league style misplays make him out to be. FG has his +2 DRS this year. BS isn’t quite as kind with OAA this season, but he was positive OAA last season. 

Basically if you’re not getting Soto, you’re likely better off letting Caissie have a crack at RF if you want to go the Seiya DH most days route. I’d still prefer Vlad as I think you need at least one hitter better than Seiya to really fortify the lineup and score runs more consistently. 

At the end of the day the Cubs need to increase their team run total ranking compared to the league, and hence increase their team totals for stats like wRC+, baserunning etc.  They can do that by adding Soto, but they could also do it with a team filled with Seiya's.  The distribution of the production probably doesn't matter.

Edited July 29, 2024 by Stratos

[Rex Buckingham]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

At the end of the day the Cubs need to increase their team run total ranking compared to the league, and hence increase their team totals for stats like wRC+, baserunning etc.  They can do that by adding Soto, but they could also do it with a team filled with Seiya's.  The distribution of the production probably doesn't matter.

I've got nothing but feelings to back this up, but I think it does matter. Having stars in your lineup changes the calculus for every other player. Yes, if the rest of the team sucks you can bat Trout and Ohtani 2/3 and still not be a good team, but an average to above average lineup (like the Cubs last year) is significantly improved by adding a Soto-level bat. 

[UMFan83]

Paredes is wearing number 17, last worn by none other than Kris Bryant.

[Bertz]

Paredes Fun Fact I just found

Cubs are 22nd in baseball in wOBA against velocity 95+.  Paredes is 74th percentile in contact against 95+, and 80th percentile in wOBA

[CubUgly]

23 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Even if you don’t focus on the pull side power, Paredes does not have the slugging potential of Morel. At the current time and likely into the future he is the more complete baseball player. But he’s not what people hoped Morel would become. That would be Manny Machado minus the personality. 

I hear ya, I've just waited on enough of these underlying numbers guys and what could they be or would they be guys that never really pan out.    Schwarber is an outlier.   This guys has put up pretty darn good numbers over 3 seasons.  That's something many players that run through the majors never do. 

[jumbo]

Athletic Article on Trade Deadline Candidates had Paredes as the #2 position player:

Paredes is the Rays' best overall position player and he made his first All-star team this year. he has a .355 on-base percentage and a 127 OPS+ and he leads the Rays in homers (16) and RBIs (55). He's close to an average defender at third base but can also play first and second base. Although the Rays don't want to trade him, they have to listen in case they receive an overwhelming offer that could improve their long-term future. If Paredes is traded, top prospect Junior Caminero is ready to be promoted to play third base. Paredes is under team control through the 2027 season. 

Just one writer's opinion, but I don't think anyone is viewing the Cubs package as an overwhelming offer. 

 

[CubinNY]

10 minutes ago, jumbo said:

Athletic Article on Trade Deadline Candidates had Paredes as the #2 position player:

Paredes is the Rays' best overall position player and he made his first All-star team this year. he has a .355 on-base percentage and a 127 OPS+ and he leads the Rays in homers (16) and RBIs (55). He's close to an average defender at third base but can also play first and second base. Although the Rays don't want to trade him, they have to listen in case they receive an overwhelming offer that could improve their long-term future. If Paredes is traded, top prospect Junior Caminero is ready to be promoted to play third base. Paredes is under team control through the 2027 season. 

Just one writer's opinion, but I don't think anyone is viewing the Cubs package as an overwhelming offer. 

 

If Paredes loved the short lines in left, think about how Morel would feel about them. I think this was a good trade for the Cubs that they had to make. I love that Jed didn't wait until the offseason to fill the hole when a good alternative was available. I will miss Morel. I watched him play outfield a lot in the minors. He is not an OF. He's not a good defensive 3B. Hopefully, he finds a spot and gets comfortable. The Athletic article about Morel that Shama wrote almost brought tears. He seems like a genuinely good person. They appear to be rare in sports.