Cubs (Steele) vs Giants (TBD): 6/24/24, 8:45pm

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A couple thoughts here that don't necessarily connect together.

* This year's team so far has underperformed expectations as a collection of individuals, basically the truly unexpected positives so far have been Busch, Shota, Brown(when healthy), and I guess Tauchman.  Some of that is a coaching or scouting/roster building responsibility, but also most of the noteworthy underachievement has come from those with established track records(Swanson, Hendricks, Neris, Morel) while the aforementioned successes have been those with the widest band of outcomes.  It was (and to a large extent is) logical to expect better as a collection of parts.

* There is no roster building plan that can seamlessly cover half of your preferred bullpen being hurt, including most of the back end of the pen.  It especially can't when one of the back end guys was terrible(likely the precursor to injury) and the one healthy late inning option has underperformed about a decade of steady production. And it especially can't when the rotation also has below average injury luck thus far in the year. Jed should do something external here the moment it's possible, because while Merryweather is getting closer, Almonte just had a setback, it's radio silence on Alzolay, and while we can pine for Roberts/Bigge/etc, there is no likely internal savior(or at least not enough of them).

* It boggles my mind how so may people appear to hold the simultaneous thought in their heads that they are furious how long it has been since the Cubs made the playoffs, or call this a X year rebuild, and yet with the team 3 games out of a playoff spot in June(with plenty of reason that small changes/health can improve their fortunes) we immediately jump to 'must sell' mode, tear it down, etc.  Bellinger has very little trade value, and the main value of trading him would be to free up money(maybe not as much as you think) to use in free agency on players with similar or worse expectations/upside.  If the Cubs pen were 15% healthier, and there was a rumor that Justin Steele's clone was available in trade, we would clamor over the thought of adding him as a long term piece that would also boost their playoff chances.  It is lunacy to think a team in the current situation should entertain that thought.

[UMFan83]

 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Steele hasn't even hit arb yet. He's 28 (though very soon to be 29). He's a career 3.26 ERA, has posted three seasons in a row (so far) with his highest xFIP of 3.58, so based on his GB's these all feel in line. For all of the "well can he repeat 2023..." all of his numbers are basically spot on them right now. He's a *very* good pitcher. He's on the right side of 30 and the right amount of control. He's (knock on wood) had no major arm related issues for a while (the IL stint was a leg muscle pull).

Selling Steele is a nuclear option. I see no reason for the Cubs to hit that button right now. The Cubs season has been frustrating but why would the Cubs pull the rip cord on a 28/29 year old arm who's as good as Steele and controlled for three+ more years (he would hit FA in 2028)? The Cubs have no reason to not be a good team in that span. Maybe we don't give him an lengthy extension, but trading him now feels...like a real bad idea.

It all depends on the return for me. If it's overwhelming near MLB talent then I take the chance because this team needs bats in the worst way. Like if Baltimore comes at me and says something crazy like here's Holliday and Basallo/Mayo. I'm taking that. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It all depends on the return for me. If it's overwhelming near MLB talent then I take the chance because this team needs bats in the worst way. Like if Baltimore comes at me and says something crazy like here's Holliday and Basallo/Mayo. I'm taking that. 

Yeah, I mean, I would too. But we also know that's like a 0% chance. Those prospects don't get traded now a days. You're likely talking lower level high upside guys who are 2-3 years out. Or higher level, mid-upside guys.

Which is why I can't really see a reason to entertain Steele trades. I get the frustrations people have (I've got em too!) But trading Steele is the nuclear option when the issue here is more frustration than hopelessness. 

[Cuzi]

Really the only starter on the roster I can see trading is if someone falls in love with Nico Hoerner as their near term SS. The Cubs have options for 2B for the remainder of this season and you hope Shaw is ready sometime soon.

I'm not trading a TOR pitcher with 3 years of control when you are trying to compete. This team is not rebuilding. They should have done that in 2021 instead of this patchwork horsefeathers. Now would be the time to "not rebuild."

[Tryptamine]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I mean, I would too. But we also know that's like a 0% chance. Those prospects don't get traded now a days. You're likely talking lower level high upside guys who are 2-3 years out. Or higher level, mid-upside guys. 

Usually yes, but how is Baltimore going to put all of Holliday/Basallo/Mayo on the field? Westburg is manning 3B and on pace to put up a 4.5fwar season. Henderson has SS and is one of the game's elite young talents. I mean sure Holliday could go to 2B, but what about Basallo/Mayo/Kjerstad/Norby? They have Rutschman at C, Mountcastle is putting up a 125 wRC+, Santander is putting up a 127 wRC+, O'hearn is putting up a 128 wRC+ too. They're just so ridiculously loaded with bats that they almost have to move a few prospects to get value or you end up burying them as bench players. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Really the only starter on the roster I can see trading is if someone falls in love with Nico Hoerner as their near term SS. The Cubs have options for 2B for the remainder of this season and you hope Shaw is ready sometime soon.

I'm not trading a TOR pitcher with 3 years of control when you are trying to compete. This team is not rebuilding. They should have done that in 2021 instead of this patchwork horsefeathers. Now would be the time to "not rebuild."

The truth of the matter is that this team desperately needs to hit on Shaw/Caissie/Ballesteros. If they whiff, this is going to be a very mediocre team for a very long time.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Usually yes, but how is Baltimore going to put all of Holliday/Basallo/Mayo on the field? Westburg is manning 3B and on pace to put up a 4.5fwar season. Henderson has SS and is one of the game's elite young talents. I mean sure Holliday could go to 2B, but what about Basallo/Mayo/Kjerstad/Norby? They have Rutschman at C, Mountcastle is putting up a 125 wRC+, Santander is putting up a 127 wRC+, O'hearn is putting up a 128 wRC+ too. They're just so ridiculously loaded with bats that they almost have to move a few prospects to get value or you end up burying them as bench players. 

Because some of those guys are going to fail. And guys like Santander, who are good, but some of them will be allowed to walk, too.

Every time we think a team has too many hitters or prospects who are *this* good, it always gets worked out. Remember when the Cubs had too many good shortstops? Things work out. It's different once we get tiers below (like, say, Davis and Canario!) But these high teir guys? They always find ways. 

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The truth of the matter is that this team desperately needs to hit on Shaw/Caissie/Ballesteros. If they whiff, this is going to be a very mediocre team for a very long time.

there is more to hope on than those three, but I feel you. I honestly think that Morel is going to turn into a superstar. He needs more seasoning and probably better coaching, but he has the talent level. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also take a second to game out even in our apparent wildest dreams where the Cubs get a couple of that surplus for Steele, they are probably not better in the short or medium term.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Quite simply, I've lost a lot of faith in the team's ability to adapt to the changing run-scoring environment. Critical players have either plateaued or declined. We're hamstrung with contracts, missing contributors at key positions of which there aren't many interesting FA to target and I'm not particularly confident in Jed's ability to identify the right guy in trade, even if he appears to have done very well acquiring Busch to this point. I don't feel that good about 2025. This season has really soured me, maybe it's stupid IDK.

Why do you quote "unload" as if it implies something negative?

We don't have Steele for 2028. We have him for 3 arb years after this one. He'll be 29 next year and we will see how his health is holding up but on the injury nexus he'll be entering the red. We have to wait and see what Jed does this offseason but there is a lot of work that needs to be done and not a lot of wiggle room, and he's gonna need to get creative. I see a real possibility that the team flounders similarly next year and at that point you might have to just submit that they're not gonna get it done and make some moves, hopefully in the mold of the Burnes/Ortiz deal where you get immediate imapctful help.

I quoted "unload" because unload generally has a negative connotation in terms of trades. When teams unload a guy, it's usually coupled with a bad contract or a bad influence. Like, the Washington Nationals didn't unload Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres so much as they just traded him. It's semantics, but when you say the Cubs can unload Steele, it comes across as though the Cubs have to or he's a negative, when I'd argue anything but that being the case. You're right, I did, however slightly mispeak on 2028; when I looked on FG they had him listed as FA in 2028; what I assumed that meant was post-'28 season, not pre-28 season. Small mistake. Point remains; tons of control. 

Secondly, I fully disagree with the teams' "inability" to adapt to a run-scoring environment. The Cubs finished 7th last year in runs scored! Yeah, this year sucks, but how is that a failure to adapt? This is largely a similar offensive team as last year. Run scoring is down in general, but the Cubs tried to essentially run back a top-10 offense last year. I'll admit, I thought a little of that was positive variance last season, but it isn't like we're talking some massive shift in how offense is scored. We can, again, debate roster construction - the Cubs have not put priority on star-power-bats that might help carry the team in times of negative variance. We can also point out flaws in the lineup; they don't do velocity well. That's true. But they weren't going to be able to remake their entire lineup overnight, and while we'd hope the Cubs would hit better than a .295 wOBA on 95+ pitches league average is a .303, so they're not like, pathetically bad. Last season they had a .310 against 95+ compared to a .317 league wOBA and finished top-10 in runs scored. Every team has flaws offensively. Overall on fastballs the Cubs have gotten better, going from the 23rd best team to the 17th best; so I'm not sure how much more adoption they realistically could have gone through. 

I feel fine about 2025. The Cubs have a great system, real upside guys who are close to the majors. They have money to spend. They have a far more defined "need" list and it's less wishy-washy. Let's put it this way: the Cubs have blown 17 saves and the average is 12. Assuming better health and some better variance, let's say the Cubs blew 12 games instead of 17, which, if the BP was mostly healthy (Alzolay, Merryweather, Almonte) feels realistic, no? The Cubs would be 42-37. They'd be 4 games behind 1st place (assuming none of those BS were against Milwaukee), and tied with the Padres for the 3rd WC. Would you feel that negative about 2025? I think our vision of the future right now is clouded, a lot, by present day frustrations...which...fair to a degree. It's hard not to be. But I think this year is like last year in inverse; we have to look through the trees to see the forest. The frustrations can't cloud what normal variance and normal luck would look like. I don't think it's a hopeless situation in the future. But I do think 2024 is starting to run out.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

The truth of the matter is that this team desperately needs to hit on Shaw/Caissie/Ballesteros. If they whiff, this is going to be a very mediocre team for a very long time.

Eh...I think they need to hit on one of them at least. That'd help a lot! But they still have tons of talent internally. If one or two of those don't work out, there's still Alcantara (who, despite it all, still has real upside), Triantos, Rojas, Davis, Canario, Hernandez...these are upside guys who can all be starting players if they hit their 95% (some more likely than others). Maybe none hit star level, okay, but the Cubs can figure out a way to acquire stars too (through aggression and the like - we can debate if they'd be willing or not). 

I don't think anything is so black and white, overall. There's plenty of way to skin a cat. Though the easiest is the Cubs top end prospects just turning out to be really good.

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs finished 7th last year in runs scored! Yeah, this year sucks, but how is that a failure to adapt? This is largely a similar offensive team as last year. Run scoring is down in general, but the Cubs tried to essentially run back a top-10 offense last year.

I'm not disagreeing with most of your thesis but the "7th in runs scored" argument is hollow. They beat up a bunch of awful teams. The offense did not consistently score runs They were 15th in HR, 11th in SLG. Not awful, but not 10.  

[Jason Ross]

49 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm not disagreeing with most of your thesis but the "7th in runs scored" argument is hollow. They beat up a bunch of awful teams. The offense did not consistently score runs They were 15th in HR, 11th in SLG. Not awful, but not 10.  

Edit: I made a mistake in my data set, so let me change my post. When setting up my table of .500 teams, I did not include the Cubs, who, were a .500+ better team and changed the data.

The Cubs scored the 13th most runs against .500 teams but the 10th best Runs/G (they played less games against winning teams than others). The Cubs W-L against .500 teams was not great, but it wasn't their offenses' issue generally speaking. They played 89 games against winning teams and still were a top-third-run-scoring-offense. The idea that the Cubs offense beat up on bad teams is the hollow argument,.

[Tryptamine]

I think Jed's fault, with the offense anyway, was he didn't realistically evaluate the chances of a repeat performance. Bellinger was playing at an MVP pace out of nowhere, Seiya was a top 5 bat in all of baseball after returning from his benching, 35 year old Gomes had a big surge in 2023 coming off a 73 wRC+, etc. The reality is, in order to reach that level of offense in 2023, they had a lot of likely unsustainable performances. They were always an average to slightly below average offense and now this year paired with some bad luck, they're really bad. 

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I think Jed's fault, with the offense anyway, was he didn't realistically evaluate the chances of a repeat performance. Bellinger was playing at an MVP pace out of nowhere, Seiya was a top 5 bat in all of baseball after returning from his benching, 35 year old Gomes had a big surge in 2023 coming off a 73 wRC+, etc. The reality is, in order to reach that level of offense in 2023, they had a lot of likely unsustainable performances. They were always an average to slightly below average offense and now this year paired with some bad luck, they're really bad. 

Three small counters:

• On Seiya, his struggles and injury leading up to that benching are included in the overall team performance for the year. He was 37th in offensive value per FG for the year but 6th in August and September. I don't think that's a 'bad bet' to count on him for solid performance with the hope that he continued being the elite hitter he was the last 3rd of the year
• Also baked into the overall performance was the abomination that was first base for most of last year, which Jed addressed. Yeah, you wouldn't expect Bellinger to necessarily continue to find enough 2 strike hits to get back to his 2023 performance, but going out and getting a bat first top prospect to play first instead of Mancini and Hosmer offsets a lot of that concern. 
• As addressed above, they weren't an average to slightly below average offense last year. They were above average, comfortably. Nico (102 to 93, career 99), Dansby (104 to 91, career 95), Morel (119 to 99, career 109), Bellinger (134 to 115, career 119), Happ (118 to 113, career 115), Suzuki (126 to 121, career 122), the oldest one of those being 30 years old, all taking offensive steps back and hitting below their career averages is just really hard to overcome.

Edited June 25, 2024 by squally1313
can't type

[731.4life]

4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

there is more to hope on than those three, but I feel you. I honestly think that Morel is going to turn into a superstar. He needs more seasoning and probably better coaching, but he has the talent level. 

Dream on my friend!