Play GM on an off day

[CubinNY]

What do you do today to make this team better? I'm at a loss. I haven't the faintest idea. They are constipated and there is not a lot to move around. 

[Jason Ross]

Well, I don't think there's anything a GM can really do today. In many ways, June 3rd is a "lie in your bed you made" situation. The trade market isn't viable unless you're willing to overpay a bunch or you think the difference between where you are and where you want to go is a very marginal trade. Most of the Cubs errors right now cannot be fixed and are self-inflicted. The hope would be that players who are underperforming where you thought they wouldn't will come out of the slump. I don't think the answer is a lineup switch or a swap. I don't see anything in the minors capable of really coming up to fix anything today (they've kind of already gone that route due to a combination of "have to" because of injury and "maybe we'll try this..."). 

I think this is the team you've got right now and it probably won't be able to be fixed, changed or overly amended in the next 45 days or so.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well, I don't think there's anything a GM can really do today. In many ways, June 3rd is a "lie in your bed you made" situation. The trade market isn't viable unless you're willing to overpay a bunch or you think the difference between where you are and where you want to go is a very marginal trade. Most of the Cubs errors right now cannot be fixed and are self-inflicted. The hope would be that players who are underperforming where you thought they wouldn't will come out of the slump. I don't think the answer is a lineup switch or a swap. I don't see anything in the minors capable of really coming up to fix anything today (they've kind of already gone that route due to a combination of "have to" because of injury and "maybe we'll try this..."). 

I think this is the team you've got right now and it probably won't be able to be fixed, changed or overly amended in the next 45 days or so.

I agree. And I would add, IMO, the sky is not falling. It is not unreasonable to think this very team can start winning again. Guys that have been playing poorly can get back in track to their usual numbers and at the end of this month the Cubs  can very easily be a team over .500 and very much be in the race. IMO all this team needs is to play to the level expected of the guys they have. Yes, they can use a catcher. And also a closer. But you are not getting either now. Just start playing better ball, as they are very capable of, and then as it gets closer to the ASB see about add ons. I suppose an innings eating SP wouldn’t hurt either. I like the young guys they have but they do need to limit some innings. So maybe someone who can pitch in the rotation for a bit. They would also help the pen because a young guy who is starting would move to the pen. So as you said, for now, nothing should be done. Just turn it around with what they have then add a catcher, closer and another starting pitcher at the deadline. If they also add a bat, that is fine, but IMO that would only be a bench guy. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1.  Wait.  There are no magic buttons that are going to flip the season, and most of what isn't going well is either circumstance/timing or performance from guys you aren't going to move on from anyway.

2. Seiya needs to DH whenever PCA and Bellinger are both in the lineup.  Busch's defense has settled, and this is something I've anticipated might be needed going back to the 'you can't pay Bellinger $X to be a 1st baseman' debates in the offseason

3. Wait. The 2023 Cubs were 3 games worse through 60 games and 6 games out of a playoff spot.  They were able to, without outside intervention, get hot enough that they collapsed in September and still missed the playoffs by a game.

4. Have a very honest conversation with yourself on what you can reasonably expect from Hendricks and Smyly the rest of the season, and how long a bullpen ravaged by injuries can reasonably sustain both of them(*IF* you are bullish enough on the alternatives)

5. Wait.  This is nothing new for Counsell either.  Last year's Brewers were hovering .500 and then played at a 95 win pace after Game 60.

6. Move Matt Shaw up to Iowa in the next week.  He's demonstrated big progress in plate discipline and his line justifies an Iowa look to see how much his production increases outside the AA funhouse mirror.  If he's 6 weeks of strong play from being a down the stretch option then I want to start that clock soon.

7. Seriously, wait.

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

1.  Wait.  There are no magic buttons that are going to flip the season, and most of what isn't going well is either circumstance/timing or performance from guys you aren't going to move on from anyway.

2. Seiya needs to DH whenever PCA and Bellinger are both in the lineup.  Busch's defense has settled, and this is something I've anticipated might be needed going back to the 'you can't pay Bellinger $X to be a 1st baseman' debates in the offseason

3. Wait. The 2023 Cubs were 3 games worse through 60 games and 6 games out of a playoff spot.  They were able to, without outside intervention, get hot enough that they collapsed in September and still missed the playoffs by a game.

4. Have a very honest conversation with yourself on what you can reasonably expect from Hendricks and Smyly the rest of the season, and how long a bullpen ravaged by injuries can reasonably sustain both of them(*IF* you are bullish enough on the alternatives)

5. Wait.  This is nothing new for Counsell either.  Last year's Brewers were hovering .500 and then played at a 95 win pace after Game 60.

6. Move Matt Shaw up to Iowa in the next week.  He's demonstrated big progress in plate discipline and his line justifies an Iowa look to see how much his production increases outside the AA funhouse mirror.  If he's 6 weeks of strong play from being a down the stretch option then I want to start that clock soon.

7. Seriously, wait.

We are in the same page here. I agree they wait. I also believe they will play better. The pen will need tinkering, but that will happen as guys get healthy. Wicks, Palencia, and K. Thompson all soon. So maybe there is a shake up in the pen. I just don’t see this as gloom and doom as many game day posters do. After playing terrible baseball and underachieving greatly for a month now, the Cubs are 1/2 game out of a playoff spot. People realistically looking at the Cubs at the start of the season had them at mid 80’s to maybe high 80’s in wins. I think the team they have still should have that expectation. So, as you said, wait. And also, step away from the edge.

I do have a concern at catcher. And, TBH, it is more defensively than offensively. I think Amaya will hit a little. I think he can hit .230-.240. And that would be fine. But they can’t throw anyone out. That, along with blocking balls and pitch framing concerns me more than the offense. Maybe, that needs to be addressed, closer to the deadline. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

We are in the same page here. I agree they wait. I also believe they will play better. The pen will need tinkering, but that will happen as guys get healthy. Wicks, Palencia, and K. Thompson all soon. So maybe there is a shake up in the pen. I just don’t see this as gloom and doom as many game day posters do. After playing terrible baseball and underachieving greatly for a month now, the Cubs are 1/2 game out of a playoff spot. People realistically looking at the Cubs at the start of the season had them at mid 80’s to maybe high 80’s in wins. I think the team they have still should have that expectation. So, as you said, wait. And also, step away from the edge.

I do have a concern at catcher. And, TBH, it is more defensively than offensively. I think Amaya will hit a little. I think he cahit .230-.240. And that would be fine. But they can’t throw anyone out. That, along with blocking balls and pitch framing concerns me more than the offense. Maybe, that needs to be addressed, closer to the deadline. 

I think the stolen base thing is a bit overrated. Without looking, I want you to think about how many caught stealing (or, in other words, how many runners a team has thrown out) is the average for the league. Is it 20? 25? Just think of the number. Then think of how many the Cubs have thrown out. What's a big number to you over the course of two months? 

In reality, the average MLB team has caught 12.4 runners stealing. The Cubs have caught eight. And while I don't want to ignore four as "nothing" the Cubs have already played 60 games, so that's really one caught stealing per 15 games short. It's probably not something worth worrying much about. 

Where the Cubs are struggling is on the catcher framing and catcher defense as a team. but a lot of that is Yan Gomes who's been just brutal; he's the second worst framing catcher in baseball right now. 

Catcher is going to be an interesting thing to see the team address. Really what they need is another Sean Murphy type of a player to hit the market, someone who's a more than capable hitter as well as a very strong defender. It's something the system they have doesn't appear to be producing (Ballesteros doesn't appear to be a plus catcher if he sticks there at all) and the Cubs have prospects to burn. Sadly, I see no one like that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Catcher is going to be an interesting thing to see the team address. Really what they need is another Sean Murphy type of a player to hit the market, someone who's a more than capable hitter as well as a very strong defender. It's something the system they have doesn't appear to be producing (Ballesteros doesn't appear to be a plus catcher if he sticks there at all) and the Cubs have prospects to burn. Sadly, I see no one like that.

The other facet here is how much they consider framing teachable with Counsell in tow, especially if they targeted someone who may be a multi-year solution.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The other facet here is how much they consider framing teachable with Counsell in tow, especially if they targeted someone who may be a multi-year solution.

Yeah the catcher framing thing is interesting. It doesn't seem to be transferable as of now. Amaya, so far, has been a bit worse from 2023 to 2024; though nothing major. And Gomes was bad last year and is worse this year. Traditionally when Counsell (or maybe more importantly, the Brewers) has gotten a new catcher the framing thing seems to be near immediate; Contreras and Narvaez were good basically Day 1. And I know Counsell didn't bring his staff over; so I'm guessing with the catch-framing gurus staying there that it was likely them, not Craig who's the driver. 

Perhaps though Counsell will push the Cubs to find their own catch-framing gurus moving forward, though. 

[731.4life]

Toronto was very smart putting Vlad Guerrero Jr. at 3rd base yesterday. Doesn't hurt trade value because he's normally a 1st baseman, but it could increase it in someway. 

I do agree, I'll wait until the All-Star break for sure. With that being said, there are prospects that are knocking on the door soon. It appears Morel can be involved in a trade piece in someway, especially if they go selling. The players aren't playing good enough to be "buyers" but we have a farm system that is in a "buying" need from the MLB level. Surplus of players.

Wouldn't shock me if Shaw, Alcantara, and Triantos are all in Iowa in August.

Edited June 3, 2024 by 731.4life

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, 731.4life said:

Toronto was very smart putting Vlad Guerrero Jr. at 3rd base yesterday. Doesn't hurt trade value because he's normally a 1st baseman, but it could increase it in someway. 

I do agree, I'll wait until the All-Star break for sure. With that being said, there are prospects that are knocking on the door soon. It appears Morel can be involved in a trade piece in someway, especially if they go selling. The players aren't playing good enough to be "buyers" but we have a farm system that is in a "buying" need. Surplus of players.

Trading Morel right now would probably be a major mistake. We can debate his defensive ability moving forward and how likely he is to take a jump, but he's been the recipient of some really bad luck. His batted ball data is wonderful, and despite the rough overall numbers, his expected wOBA is .379...that's top-20 in baseball. He is the only player in the top-42 hitters in xwOBA to be below a 107 wRC+, one of only three to be under 100 and the only hitter in the top-27 to be under 125. Selling there would probably be a terrible decision if he continues to hit the baseball like he has. He's been the recipient of some bad outcomes.  As TT said...we need to wait and Morel is probably the best reason why.

[CubinNY]

Morel is the Cubs best offensive player who seems to be crushing the ball right at people. That won't last. I don't think they are going to trade him. For the life of me, I can't understand the frequent "let's trade Morel" sentiment.  

[Tryptamine]

I don't advocate it as I'm more in the wait and see or even leaning towards selling, but, for fun, if I were to try and buy I'd probably do something like this

 

Bregman+Caratini for Alcantara+Mervis+Arias= Caratini isn't a star, but he's a massive upgrade over what the Cubs have behind the plate this year. Bregman isn't hitting yet, but the defense still provides a lot of value and his babip suggests that the offensive numbers are going to improve. 

 

Hunter Harvey for Triantos+Canario

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Morel is the Cubs best offensive player who seems to be crushing the ball right at people. That won't last. I don't think they are going to trade him. For the life of me, I can't understand the frequent "let's trade Morel" sentiment.  

To the extent you think the Cubs are in 'Win Now' mode, Morel's defensive shortcomings are a serious issue that may eventually go away over time (and consistent, every day reps), which is something a non-Win Now team can afford to give him a lot easier, especially given the tons of team control he still has. The bat is legit and he's made serious improvements there, but if he's DH only at this point in his career he's a lot less valuable even when the actual offensive output starts matching the metrics. 

[Bertz]

There are IMO four positions that you might want to do something substantial about on the trade market this summer: C, RP, 3B, SP.  There are some other positions where the production is not quite where you want it (the fanbase is starting to get really nasty about Swanson like they were about Happ right before) and you might argue for some tweaks, but if you're not a dummy or a reactionary or both you're probably focused on the four spots above.

3B and SP there's clearly no rush to address.  Morel's glove is a problem, and mileage may reasonably vary on whether that's something you want to run out there every day regardless of the offense it comes with.  But I think he's gotten it above the line for minimum playability, and so it can hold for the deadline or Shaw/Murray to start breathing down his neck from behind.  SP to this point has been great, any move there is more about being proactive with all the young arms or consolidating value.  Again, neither position needs a paradigm shifting move pre ASB.

RP is where I think an argument starts to build.  We KNOW it needs to be addressed in July.  So what is the premium for addressing it in June?  Like the Arraez trade was not some insane windfall.  If you actually try and trade with the Marlins for Tanner Scott today vs. July 31st what's the cost difference?  My bet is it's something not totally unreasonable, something like Canario then vs. Davis now.  I'd be willing to pay a pretty hefty premium considering you get twice the time with the guy, though I would believe the costs may be prohibitive.

Catcher's the big one, and again I would really like to not sit on our hands.  Do something small, I like the Caratini idea above.  Do something big and short term like Danny Jansen.  Hell do something big and long term and go get Shea Langeliers or Logan O'Hoppe.  Do SOMETHING, and do it ASAP.  If we're supposed to buy that catcher is a position you can't just change out on a dime because of the soft skills that's fine, that also means there's no excuse to wait until July to make a move.  If you want runway for your guy to learn the staff before dumping Gomes go get him now.  "June's too early to make a trade" and "catcher's need extra time to get acclimated to a new team" are conflicting ideas.  Pick one to abide by but something needs to be done because Gomes is totally cooked and whether it's physically or mentally Amaya's not currently able to handle the workload.

[KCCub]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the stolen base thing is a bit overrated. Without looking, I want you to think about how many caught stealing (or, in other words, how many runners a team has thrown out) is the average for the league. Is it 20? 25? Just think of the number. Then think of how many the Cubs have thrown out. What's a big number to you over the course of two months? 

In reality, the average MLB team has caught 12.4 runners stealing. The Cubs have caught eight. And while I don't want to ignore four as "nothing" the Cubs have already played 60 games, so that's really one caught stealing per 15 games short. It's probably not something worth worrying much about. 

Where the Cubs are struggling is on the catcher framing and catcher defense as a team. but a lot of that is Yan Gomes who's been just brutal; he's the second worst framing catcher in baseball right now. 

Catcher is going to be an interesting thing to see the team address. Really what they need is another Sean Murphy type of a player to hit the market, someone who's a more than capable hitter as well as a very strong defender. It's something the system they have doesn't appear to be producing (Ballesteros doesn't appear to be a plus catcher if he sticks there at all) and the Cubs have prospects to burn. Sadly, I see no one like that.

Wouldn’t a more relevant stat be SB against and how often teams are running on you? I don’t really like the thrown out stat because if teams are going to be more aggressive against you and maybe attempt SB with guys who don’t run as much, you’ll have a lot more opportunities to throw guys out that might not be great base stealers in the first place. I haven’t dug too deep into the data but this shows we are 23rd in opponent SB per game - https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/opponent-stolen-bases-per-game. Which is a 9 SB different from 23rd to 10th using 60 games as the base. Around a 24 stolen base difference across 162 games from 23rd just to 10th. Now the question becomes is that a lot or does that difference not carry much weight. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Wouldn’t a more relevant stat be SB against and how often teams are running on you? I don’t really like the thrown out stat because if teams are going to be more aggressive against you and maybe attempt SB with guys who don’t run as much, you’ll have a lot more opportunities to throw guys out that might not be great base stealers in the first place. I haven’t dug too deep into the data but this shows we are 23rd in opponent SB per game - https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/opponent-stolen-bases-per-game. Which is a 9 SB different from 23rd to 10th using 60 games as the base. Around a 24 stolen base difference across 162 games from 23rd just to 10th. Now the question becomes is that a lot or does that difference not carry much weight. 

The average MLB team has seen 55.7 attempts to steal against them. The Cubs have had 58 attempts. So, again, we're talking 3 stolen base attempts extra over the course of 60 games. It should also be noted as well: the Cubs have had the most opportunities for teams to steal. So while the Cubs are giving up more steals, they also have had more runners on first base that could potentially steal. They've had 594 pitches where someone could have chosen to steal second base. They've only had the ninth most attempts. 

I think in the end, the numbers are really low here. They feel big because we see the numbers like "The Cubs are tied for last in throwing out stolen bases" and it's easy to look at the word like "last" and think it's a big deal. But I think the more you dig into it, the more you realize...it's not really a big thing. It's not that it couldn't be better and anecdotally we can find issues in specific moments here or there, but overall, I think it's a drop in the ocean.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Trade for Hader and Caratini and DFA Smyly and Gomes. Unlikely Astros give up on Hader after half a season but maybe his rough start will make them a little squeamish about him long term. He’s been on fire recently. 

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Trade for Hader and Caratini and DFA Smyly and Gomes. Unlikely Astros give up on Hader after half a season but maybe his rough start will make them a little squeamish about him long term. He’s been on fire recently. 

Personally I like the idea of Scott better than Hader. He will cost less. And Scott, now, works for me too. I doubt the Astros are trading Hader anyway. Caratini would be fine, however. And, again, the sooner the better. 

[731.4life]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Trading Morel right now would probably be a major mistake. We can debate his defensive ability moving forward and how likely he is to take a jump, but he's been the recipient of some really bad luck. His batted ball data is wonderful, and despite the rough overall numbers, his expected wOBA is .379...that's top-20 in baseball. He is the only player in the top-42 hitters in xwOBA to be below a 107 wRC+, one of only three to be under 100 and the only hitter in the top-27 to be under 125. Selling there would probably be a terrible decision if he continues to hit the baseball like he has. He's been the recipient of some bad outcomes.  As TT said...we need to wait and Morel is probably the best reason why.

As great as that sounds, he is still hitting .195.  

We'll find out in two months whether if he was just a "bad luck" hitter early on, or a guy that hits below .250 and plays bad defense.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

As great as that sounds, he is still hitting .195.  

We'll find out in two months whether if he was just a "bad luck" hitter early on, or a guy that hits below .250 and plays bad defense.

He might still be hitting under .250 in two months, but it still might not mean much. I mean this as kindly as I can, but it's 2024 and while we shouldn't just throw batting average in a trash bin and ignore it completely, it's not really a statistic that on it's own is a very useful barometer for offensive success. 

As of today, despite everything, Christopher Morel has a 96 wRC+. You're new and I'd prefer not to assume your knowledge of statistics, so with that said, you can ignore this part if you're savvy with wRC+, but essentially that means he's been just 4% below being an average MLB hitter (average is 100). This is a number that is adjusted for year, environment and the likes. This is despite carrying a BABIP, or batted-ball-in-play (batting average subtracting out home runs and strikeouts, plays that don't land where a defense can affect the play) of .205. His career BABIP is .286, but even that number is low; he was a .320 and a .303 entering the year. If he was making poor contact quality than maybe his BABIP being low would be deserved, but one look at his baseball savant page tells you everything you need to know; Morel is squaring up balls really, really well...that BABIP should be high. 

That's a lot of words, and maybe you don't need the crash course (in which case, forgive me, you're not someone I know quite yet and I ere on the side of caution when it comes to talking data with folks I don't know versus assuming and having it go over someone's head), but essentially it boils down to this: Morel has been just 4% worse than league average despite having a batting average that is likely .100 points lower than it deserves to be. But more so, Morel is someone who's walking really well, he has shown wonderful plate approaches, and coupled this with a really good power bat. 

Defensively...he's a work in progress. But he's probably been good enough that he deserves to be 30% better than league average (if not more) offensively. Maybe he'll stop doing what he's doing and get frustrated and revert back to old Morel and then we can re-examine all of this; this is all predicated on what he's been doing this year and how he's approached at bats. But if Christopher continues to do what 2024 Morel has been doing...he's a really good hitter and the tide will turn there with time.

[Sammy Sofa]

13 hours ago, CubinNY said:

What do you do today to make this team better? I'm at a loss. I haven't the faintest idea. They are constipated and there is not a lot to move around. 

Quote

they just need to get hot, all they need is for seiya suzuki to start hitting again, cody bellinger to start hitting again, nico hoerner to start hitting again, dansby swanson to start hitting again, christopher morel to start hitting again, ian happ to start hitting again, michael busch to start hitting again, and one of their catchers to hit better than a pitcher, and also for the bullpen to stop blowing every single lead they accidentally might get, and they'll be right back in this thing.

 

[Stratos]

The only sucking that's potentially likely to continue over the rest of the reason is our catchers, and possibly our pen especially if there's more pitching injuries.  So right now I think the FO should do nothing except keep their eyes looking at the reliever and maybe catcher market and waiver wire for help or depth.  Busch may also just not be able to hit well enough as an MLB'er, who knows, but we have Bellinger as backup.

The hitting in May is very likely just bad luck so not much else to do but wait for guys to hit better.

 

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Bertz said:

Catcher's the big one, and again I would really like to not sit on our hands.  Do something small, I like the Caratini idea above.  Do something big and short term like Danny Jansen.  Hell do something big and long term and go get Shea Langeliers or Logan O'Hoppe.  Do SOMETHING, and do it ASAP.  If we're supposed to buy that catcher is a position you can't just change out on a dime because of the soft skills that's fine, that also means there's no excuse to wait until July to make a move.  If you want runway for your guy to learn the staff before dumping Gomes go get him now.  "June's too early to make a trade" and "catcher's need extra time to get acclimated to a new team" are conflicting ideas.  Pick one to abide by but something needs to be done because Gomes is totally cooked and whether it's physically or mentally Amaya's not currently able to handle the workload.

Acquiring a new catcher could improve some things, but also we need to consider how it would affect the pitching staff and pitching results bringing in a new guy we probably want to catch most of the time who doesn't know the pitchers.  With catching I think we're screwed unless there's someone in the minors they want to try who has experience working with some of the guys or from ST.  Amaya is also out of options.