With Five Graduations, Six New Names Appear in North Side Baseball's Updated Top 20 Cubs Prospect Rankings

[Seth Stohs]

Over the past couple of weeks, we have had open prospect voting for Northside Baseball writers and for the community. The results of the rankings have now been updated on the site. Here is a brief summary. 

Image courtesy of Tennessee Smokies

Over the past couple of weeks, we have had open prospect voting for Northside Baseball writers and for the community. The results of the rankings have now been updated on the site. Here is a brief summary. 

The last time that we had a vote for North Side Baseball Top 20 Prospect rankings was in February. In many cases, there was minimal change from the end of the 2023 season. Players acquired or lost in a trade can create change. Maybe a solid prospect does something remarkable in the Winter Leagues. Or maybe a report comes out about a pitcher at Instructional League suddenly hitting 99 mph rather than 95. Or an injured player works his way back. 

With the mid-May voting, we now have six or seven weeks of 2024 performances by hitters and pitchers. Some players get off to fast starts. Others start out slow. There are injuries and promotions. In other words, we all have more data points for helping us better rank those players. You can find all kinds of stats online, which is great. But you can also watch games online and see the players or attend games at minor-league parks. 

With that, we did have the North Side Baseball writers rank their top 20 prospects first, and then we opened it up to the community rankings. We truly thank you for taking time to rank prospects. Because there was such a huge community turnout, the community rankings take on a higher weight. Those rankings were used in conjunction with the writers vote in a formula to give us the updated rankings you can see today. 

Let’s get to some of the interesting things we find within the updated rankings. 

GRADUATIONS: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Jordan Wicks, Matt Mervis, and Luke Little. 
Five graduations. That is a lot. That’s 25% of the top 20 that changes automatically. Busch and Wicks were close coming into the season. Mervis only spent a couple of weeks with the Cubs so far this season, but he’s now not a “prospect”. Little passed the service time threshold. PCA just graduated last weekend. Ben Brown is still on the list, but he will likely be graduating in the coming weeks, so this could be his final time on this list. 

BIGGEST RISERS: Luis Vazquez, Derniche Valdez, Michael Arias, Drew Gray
Vazquez was drafted by the Cubs in 2017 out of Puerto Rico. A 14th rounder, he has slowly worked his way up the organizational ladder. Known as a glove-first shortstop, he has started to his a bit the last couple of years. Now, the problem is, how can he get big-league playing time with the Cubs. Can he? He was just called up but hasn’t played in two games. On Tuesday, both Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner returned to the lineup, and Vazquez was not optioned. But the 24-year-old has earned the opportunity, and he earned his jump from #17 to #10 in the Cubs system. 

Valdez jumped from #19 to #12. The 18-year-old signed early in 2023 and spent last season in the DSL. In eight games in the ACL this year, he’s hitting .262/.292/.522 (.813) with a double, triple, and home run. He has nine strikeouts with just one walk in 24 plate appearances. Like Vazquez, five plates who ranked in front of him have graduated from this list. Valdez remains all about the tools and potential. 

Arias and Gray moved up to #14 and #15, respectively, having previously been unranked. Arias was added to the 40-man roster last November and is pitching well in Double-A, working out of the Smokies bullpen. Gray was the Cubs third-round pick in 2021 out of IMG Academy. In seven starts for South Bend this season, he is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA. In 21 1/3 innings, he has 30 strikeouts, but he also has issued 22 walks. He hurt his elbow before the 2022 season and returned in 2023, so he’s still working his way back. 

BIGGEST DROPS: Haydn McGeary
With five players graduating, everyone else either stayed the same or moved up a few spots. McGeary was previously ranked #20. He will fall out of the Top 20, though he would be #22 if we increased this list to the Top 25. In 32 games at Tennessee so far this season, he’s hitting just .193 

THE NEXT FIVE: Pablo Aliendo (#21), Haydn McGeary (#22), Alfonsin Rosario (#23), Porter Hodge (#24), Brandon Birdsell  (#25). 
Pablo Aliendo is a 22-year-old catcher from Venezuela. He signed with the Cubs in 2017 and has progressed slowly up the system. Last year in Tennessee, he hit .231/.332/.458 (.790) with 23 doubles and 16 homers. Very good numbers, but he’s back with the Smokies this year and hitting .235/.350/.471 (.820) with three doubles and five homers this year.  

Haydn McGeary was the Cubs 15th round pick in 2022 from Division II Colorado Mesa University. In 2023, he spent 20 games at South Bend. Then in 104 Tennessee games, he hit .255/.382/.435 (.817) with 15 doubles and 16 homers. He began this season at #20 on our Top 20 list. This year in 36 games in Tennessee, he is hitting .287/.241/.325 (.566) with five doubles and four homers. 

Rosario is a 19-year-old outfielder, drafted in the sixth round a year ago from the P27 Academy in Lexington, South Carolina. He played in just nine games for the ACL Cubs in 2023. He started this season at Low-A Carolina. In 24 games, he has hit .204/.253/.398 (.650) with six doubles and four homers. He is also 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. He has struck out in 40% of his plate appearances. 

Porter Hodge was added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster last fall and called up to the big leagues just last week. The 23-year-old was the Cubs’ 13th-round draft pick in 2019 out of high school in Salt Lake City. He’s pitched in one game. On May 22nd, he pitched the ninth inning, faced three batters and struck them all out. Before his recall, he had pitched two games in Tennessee and 10 games for Iowa. Combined, he had 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. He also had 11 walks, so that is something he will need to improve upon. 

Brandon Birdsell was the Cubs fifth-round pick in 2022 out of Texas Tech. He made 18 starts last year for South Bend (3-5, 2.36 ERA) before ending the season with six starts in Tennessee (1-3, 3.95 ERA). He began this season with the Smokies. In eight games (7 starts, he is 2-4 with a 4.81 ERA. In 33 2/3 innings, he has 28 strikeouts and 12 walks. 

Will some of these players jump into the Top 20 when we re-rank the players around the draft? 

Here is another look at the updated Top 20 Brewers prospects with links to their prospect page which includes links to Brewer Fanatic articles or videos that they have been tagged in.

#1 - RHP Cade Horton (Iowa)
#2 - OF Owen Caissie (Iowa)
#3 -  3B/SS Matt Shaw (Tennessee)
#4 - 1B Moises Ballesteros (Tennessee)
#5 - RHP Ben Brown (Chicago)
#6 - OF Kevin Alcantara (Tennessee)
#7 - SS Jefferson Rojas (South Bend)
#8 - 2B James Triantos (Tennessee)
#9 - OF Alexander Canario (Iowa)
#10 - IF Luis Vazquez (Chicago)

#11 - RHP Jaxon Wiggins (ACL Cubs)
#12 - SS Derniche Valdez (ACL Cubs-Restricted List)
#13 - IF BJ Murray Jr (Iowa)
#14 -  RHP Michael Arias (Tennessee)
#15 - LHP Drew Gray (South Bend)
#16 - IF Cristian Hernandez (Myrtle Beach)
#17 - 2B Pedro Ramirez (South Bend)
#18 - IF Josh Rivera (Tennessee)
#19 - SS Fernando Cruz (ACL Cubs)
#20 - OF Brennan Davis (Iowa) 

NEWBIES: RHP MIchael Arias (NR to 14), LHP Drew Gray (NR to 15), IF Cristian Hernandez (NR to 16), IF Pedro Ramirez (NR to 17), SS Fernando Cruz (NR to 19), OF Brennan Davis (NR to 20). 
With five players graduating, and one falling out, that opens up six spots in the Top 20 for us to learn a little more about players. A couple are familiar names. Michael Arias is the converted shortstop who is now dominating on the mound in the Tennessee bullpen after being able to added to the 40-man roster last November. Brennan Davis has seemingly been around forever. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old has missed a ton of time with injuries. He has been destroying baseballs in Iowa the past month, but he did have  

Drew Gray was the Cubs’ third-round pick in 2021 out of IMG Academy. The 21-year-old is pitching in South Bend. He’s worked 21 1/3 innings over seven starts. He’s got 30 strikeouts, but he’s also walked 22 batters. He had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2022 season and returned during the 2023 season. He has a fastball that reaches to the mid-90s and both a slow curve and a sharp slider. Lots of potential. 

Hernandez was a Top 100 prospect by Baseball America before the 2022 season, but he posted a .677 OPS in the ACL that season and then hit just .223/.302/.301 (.603) in 106 games at Myrtle Beach last year. However, still just 20, he returned to the Pelicans this season. In 34 games, he’s hitting .305/.411/.391 (.801) with eight doubles which has put the middle infielder back on the prospect map. 

Pedro Ramirez is also 20 years old. After posting a .762 OPS in 104 games at Myrtle Beach last year, he moved up to High-A South Bend this year. He has played in 35 games and hit .321/.369/.453 (.822) with four doubles, four triples, and two home runs. He has split his time between second base and third base. 

Fernando Cruz is a 17-year-old shortstop that signed with the Cubs for $4 million in January. He will make his pro debut when the DSL season starts. 

BIG QUESTIONS 
We can assume that Ben Brown will graduate by the next time we rank prospects, probably right around the draft. Will Luis Vazquez stick in the big leagues with both Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner? At some point, Cade Horton will get an opportunity in the big leagues. How much could he help the Cubs in a pennant race? Porter Hodge was recently recalled. Alexander Canario is likely to go up and down a few times. Can he stick? Who else could get promoted to the big leagues? Owen Caissie? Matt Shaw? Obviously the severity of a Brennan Davis injury will determine his opportunities. 

There are several upper-level prospects on the list, and as you saw, there are a bunch of 17-20 year olds with massive potential. How will they perform over the course of the 2024 season? Which will take a step forward? Which might need to repeat a level in 2025?

Which prospects are you most intrigued in watching over the coming months or the remainder of the season?

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[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Here is another look at the updated Top 20 Brewers prospects with links to their prospect page which includes links to Brewer Fanatic articles or videos that they have been tagged in.

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