Early-season trends that may or may not end up meaningful

[Bertz]

Four games is nothing.  But every real trend has to start somewhere.  Here's a couple early ones worth keeping an eye on:

1. Jordan Wicks' velo and movement on his fastball were way up in his first start

2. Chris Morel's contact #s are WAY WAY WAY up

Perusing game-logs I don't believe he's ever had a one strikeout in 17 PA stretch before.  On top of that Eovaldi and Gray are guys he previously would have had difficulty with...there really might be something here

3. Michael Busch is doing everything at the plate...with little to show for it

Here's the percentile some of Michael Busch's underlying stats would rank last year if he did them over a full season:

Contact Rate - 95th

Chase Rate - 99th

Average Exit Velo - 98th

GB Rate - 34th

Barrel Rate - 74th

Pull Rate - 72nd

xWOBA - 98th

Literally the only blemish is a couple extra balls on the ground.  That .400-something OPS is not going to last.

[Stratos]

Imanaga 00.0 GB% lol.

[PackLandVA]

Morel on pace for 54 errors.

[Derwood]

35 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

Morel on pace for 54 errors.

and 40+ little league homers

[Tim]

I'm philosophically opposed to extending pitchers before its necessary. They break way too often for that.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Bieber has pitched 12 scoreless innings with a 20:1 KBB 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The NL Central as a whole is playing at a 116 win pace.

[bukie]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The NL Central as a whole is playing at a 116 win pace.

As expected before the season, the NL Central is by far the best division in baseball.

[Guest234]

The trend so far is Tigers versus Pirates in the WS - no one will lose. Kind of an early hot take.

[CubinNY]

Don't sleep on the Pirates. 

[Tim]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Don't sleep on the Pirates. 

Why not?

[Rob]

39 minutes ago, Tim said:

Why not?

At this point, the projected spread in the win total between the NL Central teams is 3 wins. The Pirates may be a true-talent sub .500 team, but they've already banked five wins, and are now projected for 79.8 wins in a division where 82-84 wins could theoretically take it.

This division could be a dogfight.

[Bertz]

43 minutes ago, Tim said:

Why not?

Yeah Jared Jones might be a thing but otherwise Pitt's early success is really just the Marlins being a mess with the injuries.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Yeah Jared Jones might be a thing but otherwise Pitt's early success is really just the Marlins being a mess with the injuries.

The lineup actually looks pretty decent to me. They hit like twice as many HR as any team in ST and they've kept some of that momentum going.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Pirates are a great example of a team that looks pretty good if you assume positive outcomes happen at a disproportionate rate, and also don't assume anything negative unexpected happening.  No one on the roster projects to a 120 wRC+, half of their 'good' hitters you need to assume unexpected 2023 progress continues(or starts, in the case of Cruz), and the bottom of the lineup is pretty dire for being a depth based lineup like the Cubs have largely done.  The pitching will get reinforced with Skenes at some point but it will be muted compared to his reputation(he's not facing any lineup a 2nd time yet, and his cautious buildup means he's not gonna make 25+ MLB starts).  Even with Skenes the rotation isn't going to carry an offense on its back, and they don't project to be a particularly great defensive team.  They won 76 games by beating pythag by 5 games last year, and that's about where they are this year in my estimation.  That could serve as a springboard to a better 2025 if they're smart about their additions and lucky about who plays well though.

[KCCub]

Didn't the Pirates start off something like 20-8 last year? They've got some nice young pieces, but I don't think they are deep enough to compete for a full year. 

[Tim]

3 hours ago, Rob said:

At this point, the projected spread in the win total between the NL Central teams is 3 wins. The Pirates may be a true-talent sub .500 team, but they've already banked five wins, and are now projected for 79.8 wins in a division where 82-84 wins could theoretically take it.

This division could be a dogfight.

Cubs are winning 90+

Pirates aren't a threat.

[PackLandVA]

2 hours ago, KCCub said:

Didn't the Pirates start off something like 20-8 last year? They've got some nice young pieces, but I don't think they are deep enough to compete for a full year. 

Yep, they started out 9-7. Then they won 11 of their next 12 to go 20-8. Then they lost 11 of their next 12.  That's so "pirate".

[Derwood]

Remember a couple of years ago when the Pirates started like 32-16 and then finished well below .500?

 

Yeah

[CubinNY]

We need a Cubs in season mega thread. 

Anyway, The Cardinals are the only team in the division under .500 (suck it, redneck cousin horsefeathers). 

The Marlins are the only team who have not won a game yet. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

16 hours ago, Derwood said:

Remember a couple of years ago when the Pirates started like 32-16 and then finished well below .500?

 

Yeah

Well that didn't quite happen, but last year they were 20-8.

[Derwood]

26 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Well that didn't quite happen, but last year they were 20-8.

Sure, that. I’m not a Pirates historian

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Cubs have only attempted 4 steals and were successful just twice. The defense is 6th worst in MLB, which - early SS - but, that has been surprising, even if Morel is largely the culprit. None of the regulars have been particularly good, even Nico and Swanson are middle-of-the-pack at their respective positions. 

Nico is 10th in walk rate, tied with Happ. He needs just 41 walks in the last 150 games to set a new career-high. His approach is not really paying off yet, but I'd like to see him stick to it, draw 75+ walks. That would be great and likely set a new career-high in OBP and wRC+, because he wont hit 150 all year. 

Morel still has a 10% K rate and his improvement in plate discipline has been loud and clear. Pitch Info has him with a 15% chase rate - WHAT?!?!?!?! This is too early to go overboard on but this is Ronald Acuna 2023 type of improvement - a 60% Zswing-Oswing, gotdamn. And still hitting the piss out of the ball with a 91 EV.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Non-Cubs related, William Contreras currently has a 418 xwoba with a 3.6 (!) Launch Angle. This is insane. His hard-hit rate is just a shade under 75%. He has a 99.8 EV in 29 events. 

Bobby Witt Jr is at 99.5 in 33 events and has a 528 xwoba. 

[Derwood]

Cubs on pace for 100 wins