Article: Shota Imanaga Cubs Deal Will Include Club Options, Opt-Outs, Incentives

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs have made a major addition to their 2024 roster, but there are serious questions about the health of the player they're bringing in—enough of them to compel the two sides to cobble together a complicated contract.

Image courtesy of © Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Late Tuesday night, Jon Heyman tweeted a sketch of the details on the deal between the Cubs and left-handed starter Shota Imanaga, which is still not official but should become so Wednesday.

Shota Imanaga Cubs deal is complicated and includes player/team options and escalators that could boost it to way up to $80M. Guarantee suggested to be somewhere around $30M for two years by @JimBowdenGM @jonmorosi 1st said $15M/year

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 10, 2024

Jim Bowden of The Athletic offered a similar (though equally incomplete) outline.

According to club source #Cubs deal with Imanaga is something close to 2 yrs 30 can grow to 4 yrs 60 and can even reach 80 m with multiple opt outs ...deal is Very Complicated. Player/Team Options/Escalators…etc but thats the general ball park agreement

— Jim Bowden⚾️? (@JimBowdenGM) January 10, 2024

In short, the deal reflects the real concerns teams had about Imanaga as they got more information about his shoulder (which was operated on in late 2020) and the prognosis for long-term durability there. There's an important distinction to be drawn, there, between those concerns about long-term commitments and the idea that Imanaga is damaged goods. 

Just last winter, we saw this play out on a much larger and more familiar scale. Multiple teams flinched at the finish line of deals with Carlos Correa because of a plate in his lower leg that they believed could hobble him in his 30s. Correa ended up with a deal that included multiple team options and guaranteed him only $200 million, as opposed to the $350 million and $315 million the Giants and Mets, respectively, had first put on the table. The concern there wasn't present inability to perform, though. If it had been, Correa would have ended up signing for far, far less money. Rather, the sticking point with both scuttled deals was disagreement about how much a team should discount a player from the value they would otherwise have because of a projected health issue.

Longer ago but, perhaps, more directly comparably, the Dodgers signed Kenta Maeda to an eight-year deal when he came over from Japan prior to 2016. Because of concerns about his elbow, Maeda only got $3 million in guaranteed salary for each season of that deal, but he could earn more than $10 million more each year if he stayed fully healthy and in the starting rotation. The contract only guaranteed him $25 million, but he made roughly $52.7 million over its span, even with the pandemic season forcing everyone to take prorated shares of their official salaries and despite Tommy John surgery robbing him of his entire 2022 campaign. Maeda pitched just over 866 innings over the life of the deal, but when he was on the mound, he was very, very good. 

Imanaga's situation falls somewhere between those two cases on the spectrum. His asking price wasn't knocked down as much as Maeda's was, although one team never in the center of the reported mix for him felt so emboldened by the collective unease within the last week that they waded in with a one-year offer attached only to a vesting option, and they were not immediately rebuffed. However, while Correa's issue only shortened his deal from 13 years to six, the 30-year-old Imanaga will end up with just two years of guaranteed money. After that, this deal will include options for both parties, and it could incorporate some incentives, too.

If his shoulder were in pristine condition, Imanaga would have successfully commanded a nine-figure deal, given the current market for starting pitchers with upside. There are legitimate concerns about how his approach will translate to MLB, but the team can work with him to make his repertoire work just fine Stateside. Far more intractable are worries about his arm holding up, but again, that doesn't mean that it's currently in tatters. This is where the gap between our knowledge of MLB and NPB pitchers becomes important. Were Imanaga already in MLB when he underwent his surgery three years ago, we would all have a clearer understanding of the exact nature of that injury, and it would surprise no one that the fact of that injury affected his market.

On the other hand, Carlos Rodon had shoulder surgery in 2019, and he signed for $162 million last winter. We can confidently say, then, that Imanaga's health record diminished his market, and that that has left the Cubs with a somewhat complex contract and an uncertain asset in the person of their new No. 2 starter. Nonetheless, he's an exciting addition, and this deal appears to limit risk for the team while allowing the player to preserve some upside in his own right. 

Do you expect the Cubs to pursue another starter after signing Imanaga? Let's discuss that, and other questions that leap to mind in the wake of the team's first substantial move of the winter.

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[Jason Ross]

Sounds like a creative way for both parties to come out as winners and mitigate being losers. The Cubs likely have a few ways that they can make sure this is closer to a two year deal if Imanaga's shoulder explodes in the next two years where as Imanaga can opt out at some stage if he shows those concerns are not founded. 

[Guest234]

Craig Counsell will hire the next manager of the Cubs.

[Bertz]

Matt you've brought up a modified 6 man rotation before and I'm wondering more and more if that might be in the cards.  

Literally thr entire rotation has some IP questions

- You laid out Imanaga’s but he's got some shoulder stuff plus generally as a Japanese import he's used to pitching once a week

-Steele's huge innings jump last year would probably necessitate some extra rest

- Kyle's not far removed from a major shoulder injury, plus generally he's no longer a spring chicken

- Assad's the only one of the youths you'd feel comfortable going much past 150 innings

It could stand to help things all around.

[ILMindState]

 

Probably the Angels

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

 

Probably the Angels

Do the Angels have an Orange County problem?

[Jason Ross]

I think the word "guarantee" is likely doing some work here, as I think the "guarantee" is that Imanaga gets 2/$30m here. With the structure (that we haven't fully seen) I bet that the Cubs total may be more, or that with opt-outs it gives Imanaga more power. These things happen all the time. But it does seem like Imanaga liked Chicago and chose the power/earning potential over the promise, however.

[squally1313]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Matt you've brought up a modified 6 man rotation before and I'm wondering more and more if that might be in the cards.  

Literally thr entire rotation has some IP questions

- You laid out Imanaga’s but he's got some shoulder stuff plus generally as a Japanese import he's used to pitching once a week

-Steele's huge innings jump last year would probably necessitate some extra rest

- Kyle's not far removed from a major shoulder injury, plus generally he's no longer a spring chicken

- Assad's the only one of the youths you'd feel comfortable going much past 150 innings

It could stand to help things all around.

No issues with the concept of a six man rotation, but think if we go that route I want another at least semi reliable starter, not Assad, to fill it out. None of these are serious problems on their own, but when you consider:

• Outside of Steele not sure how often we want these guys getting into a third time through the order situation
• With the 13 pitcher max you're limiting yourself to 7 pen guys and just moved your best swing man to the rotation
• Assad's top level numbers look about the same in a starting and reliever role but his FIP was 1.2 runs better as a reliever
• Just generally: get more pitchers. You need so many of them these days, and clearly the top teams (Dodgers, Braves) are planning to mix and match throughout the year. 

Imanaga signing for what he did, based on the rumors, opens up a lot of options (at least until Bellinger and Hoskins sign elsewhere). Would have liked Shohei or Soto, but like where we're at for the time being. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the word "guarantee" is likely doing some work here, as I think the "guarantee" is that Imanaga gets 2/$30m here. With the structure (that we haven't fully seen) I bet that the Cubs total may be more, or that with opt-outs it gives Imanaga more power. These things happen all the time. But it does seem like Imanaga liked Chicago and chose the power/earning potential over the promise, however.

Yeah, just to put round numbers to it, let's say the contract is 2/30 plus a 2/30 player option with incentives that can make it 2/40, along with a team option that override it at 2/45.  If someone offered Imanaga a straight 4/60 that is in fact double the 'guarantee', but meaningfully the Cubs offer is better because Imanaga can't make less than that doubled guarantee unless he chooses to, and he has more paths to exceeding it.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

No issues with the concept of a six man rotation, but think if we go that route I want another at least semi reliable starter, not Assad, to fill it out. None of these are serious problems on their own, but when you consider:

• Outside of Steele not sure how often we want these guys getting into a third time through the order situation
• With the 13 pitcher max you're limiting yourself to 7 pen guys and just moved your best swing man to the rotation
• Assad's top level numbers look about the same in a starting and reliever role but his FIP was 1.2 runs better as a reliever
• Just generally: get more pitchers. You need so many of them these days, and clearly the top teams (Dodgers, Braves) are planning to mix and match throughout the year. 

Imanaga signing for what he did, based on the rumors, opens up a lot of options (at least until Bellinger and Hoskins sign elsewhere). Would have liked Shohei or Soto, but like where we're at for the time being. 

I think I like Assad as a starter more than most, but yeah I'd still like to dangle Morel in front of teams like the Mariners and Tigers and grab an optionable young starter like a Bryan Woo or a Reese Olson.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think I like Assad as a starter more than most, but yeah I'd still like to dangle Morel in front of teams like the Mariners and Tigers and grab an optionable young starter like a Bryan Woo or a Reese Olson.

I'd even settle for something more speculative, expanding a deal for Taylor Scott to try to peel off Cabrera or Rogers would scratch the itch, for example.