Article: Is Josh Hader's Market Falling Into Jed Hoyer's Sweet Spot?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Recently, we ventured deep into the wilderness of imagination, to try to understand why waiting into January doesn't dent the asking price of Scott Boras's top free agents. There is a huge-name free agent hurler out there, though, whom Boras doesn't represent.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It's not as though Josh Hader is represented by some hayseed lawyer out of the same rural slice of southern Maryland from which he himself hails. He's signed up with CAA Sports, the second- or third-largest agency for MLB players. It's just that, be it CAA or Wasserman or Octagon or anyone else, every agency other than the Boras Corporation loses some leverage as the calendar flips to January. It's not weird that that happens to everyone. It's only weird that Boras manages to be (almost) immune to that effect.

When Hader hit the market in November, all the buzz was about his desire to top the record contract to which the Mets signed Edwin Diaz last winter. Díaz got the most money ever guaranteed to a relief pitcher, when he inked a five-year, $102-million deal in Nov. 2022. Here's the thing, though: Díaz was never a realistic goal at which to aim. Hader's platform season in 2023 wasn't as good as Díaz's 2022 was. Díaz is a mere two and a half weeks older than Hader, which means he was a full year younger when he signed his deal. 

Most importantly, though, Díaz was signing a deal at the Buy It Now price. Steve Cohen, the Mets' wildly aggressive and mega-rich owner, wanted to keep his beloved closer and the trumpets that became such a sensation alongside him at Citi Field in 2022, and he didn't care about shelling out several million more dollars than other teams would have given Díaz. Once Hader actually hit free agency (rather than being brought back by an overeager incumbent, which was never on the table in his case), $100 million was essentially off the table.

Two months have passed since then, and while this winter's market for player talent has moved much slower than other recent ones, that much time depresses the asking price and shifts leverage away from a player and toward whatever teams have interest in him. At this point, I don't think it's at all certain that Hader will get a five-year deal. If he does, it'll come in at the same $16-million annual average value for which Kenley Jansen has been working for almost a decade. If he wants to eclipse that number and get closer to $20 million in AAV, he'll have to settle for a four-year term.

We're starting to get into the realm, then, at which Jed Hoyer's ears perk up. Hoyer might not want to spend massive money on a reliever, but he's opportunistic when he senses good value. Much could depend on Craig Counsell, here. If Counsell gives the green light on Hader's makeup and clubhouse presence (which, by the end of his time in Milwaukee, were widely praised), then a four- or five-year deal worth a total of $80 million probably makes sense. 

A Cubs bullpen with Hader would be such a different animal than the current hodgepodge that it's hard to express it in simple terms. He's a very traditional closer who expects to be used pretty lightly, and that should and will restrict his value a bit. It's why he's not going to get Díaz money. On the other hand, slotting him into a low-maintenance, high-octane role shutting down games with ruthless efficiency in the ninth inning would free Counsell up to make more creative, versatile use of all the other arms already in the mix for Chicago.

Adbert Alzolay is a good-not-great relief ace. As the second-best arm in a bullpen with an elite closer, he goes from fun to downright sterling. Stack Mark Leiter, Jr. and Julian Merryweather in with Alzolay, and you've got an impressive corps of setup men, plus the ability to rest them more often. As is true of signing an ace starter, bringing in an ace reliever pushes everyone else on the depth chart down one space, thereby making them all a bit more valuable.

Hader comes with plenty of red flags. He has already gone through one or two miniature crises, as almost every great closer does during their careers, and while it's encouraging that he seems to have adjusted and moved past them, those rough patches leave us with vivid insight into his particular mortality as a great reliever. Despite careful usage and the lightest total innings load for which any closer can reasonably hope, Hader's fastball velocity dipped in 2023, and his slider velocity keeps climbing. 

Diminished velocity separation makes it harder to miss bats with either offering, especially when the arsenal is relatively limited. Hader has seen his release point creep upward, such that he's not creating quite as extreme a horizontal or vertical angle for hitters as he used to, and while doing that has maintained a steady vertical movement differential between his two crucial offerings, it's come at the cost of some horizontal movement gap. Changes like these can seem trivial for a starter with a deeper arsenal, or for any pitcher in his mid-20s. For a two-pitch reliever who turns 30 in April, they beget some genuine concern.

That said, the man struck out 36.8 percent of opposing batters in 2023, and that was his worst mark since he was a rookie. It's a video-game number. He's become more walk-prone as he's adapted and (inevitably, because every reliever does almost as soon as they drive off the lot of their Triple-A apartment building) declined, but he's also become an adroit avoider of home runs. His stuff overpowers hitters and induces extremely weak contact. During his tenure in Atlanta, Hader only gave up home runs to 1.3 percent of opposing batters. That's less than half the league's rate.

If the Cubs can get Hader for what I think they can now get Hader for, they ought to be interested. The fact that he rejected a qualifying offer and will cost whichever team signs him at least one draft pick does make him slightly less appealing, but then again, maybe you add that to the list of reasons why his leverage is evaporating. If he could be had for $75 million, so much the better. The Cubs would still need to do much more to finish a successful offseason, but as Hader waits, his value sinks. Hoyer will, eventually, smell blood in the water.

What do you make of Hader's unique career and stalled free agency? At what price would he appeal to you? Let us know.

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[CubinNY]

He still has the draft pick attached to him. I'd say Jed is very extremely unlikely to target Hader. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

He still has the draft pick attached to him. I'd say Jed is very extremely unlikely to target Hader. 

On top of that, the Cubs are very much a team who tries to maximize every dollar (you can also read this as "prospect") they can. Spending on the bullpen has been something the team has essentially refused to do as well, instead going with the "create a RP" route versus "buy a RP" route. I find Josh Hader a very unlikely candidate for the Cubs as well.

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

He still has the draft pick attached to him. I'd say Jed is very extremely unlikely to target Hader. 

Yeah I think even if Hader gets to a price where Jed can stomach the dollars he's not going to give up the pick.

There was talk Jed is willing to stretch out of his RP comfort zone in deference to Counsell.  But I think that tops out at $20-40M for Robert Stephenson or Jordan Hicks or someone like that.

[Rex Buckingham]

There's little chance they sign Hader and lose a pick... there's 0 chance they sign both Bellinger AND Hader (not that that was necessarily mentioned, but if they sign Belli - thus not getting a pick for him, there's no chance they lose another pick by signing someone)

[Joj]

They need to sign Hader.  I don't really care for quibbling over a few imaginary millions here or there.  We all know the Cubs can afford whatever the number happens to be.  And Hoyer's oft-repeated qualifiers in softball interviews do little to move the needle on that particular reality. 

I'd rather not see Hoyer repeat the mistakes of his predecessor Epstein when it comes to approach on closers.  Epstein traded young talent for closers twice (Chapman and Wade Davis) when he could've just paid the money to a FA and kept everyone (or traded them for other needs).  Money is the easy (and maybe cheap) way.  Especially when you're in a large market.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Joj said:

They need to sign Hader.  I don't really care for quibbling over a few imaginary millions here or there.  We all know the Cubs can afford whatever the number happens to be.  And Hoyer's oft-repeated qualifiers in softball interviews do little to move the needle on that particular reality. 

I'd rather not see Hoyer repeat the mistakes of his predecessor Epstein when it comes to approach on closers.  Epstein traded young talent for closers twice (Chapman and Wade Davis) when he could've just paid the money to a FA and kept everyone (or traded them for other needs).  Money is the easy (and maybe cheap) way.  Especially when you're in a large market.

I don’t know exactly what they end up doing this off season. But I am 99.9% certain the Cubs signing Hader isn’t happening. 

[LBiittner]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t know exactly what they end up doing this off season. But I am 99.9% certain the Cubs signing Hader isn’t happening. 

You sir are 99.9% correct

[LBiittner]

Just now, LBiittner said:

You sir are 99.9% correct

I wish someone would explain how cubs are almost always linked to all these big name  free agents and when all is said and done, we end up with the equivalent to brown juicey-ness running down the backside of our legs.

[Joj]

54 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I wish someone would explain how cubs are almost always linked to all these big name  free agents and when all is said and done, we end up with the equivalent to brown juicey-ness running down the backside of our legs.

Because guys like Hoyer are the gatekeepers.  Be a keymaster, Jed.

[Joj]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t know exactly what they end up doing this off season. But I am 99.9% certain the Cubs signing Hader isn’t happening. 

I see.  Hey, at least it was a great conversation.  Thanks for the memories!