Is Josh Hader's Market Falling Into Jed Hoyer's Sweet Spot?

It's not as though Josh Hader is represented by some hayseed lawyer out of the same rural slice of southern Maryland from which he himself hails. He's signed up with CAA Sports, the second- or third-largest agency for MLB players. It's just that, be it CAA or Wasserman or Octagon or anyone else, every agency other than the Boras Corporation loses some leverage as the calendar flips to January. It's not weird that that happens to everyone. It's only weird that Boras manages to be (almost) immune to that effect.

When Hader hit the market in November, all the buzz was about his desire to top the record contract to which the Mets signed Edwin Diaz last winter. Díaz got the most money ever guaranteed to a relief pitcher, when he inked a five-year, $102-million deal in Nov. 2022. Here's the thing, though: Díaz was never a realistic goal at which to aim. Hader's platform season in 2023 wasn't as good as Díaz's 2022 was. Díaz is a mere two and a half weeks older than Hader, which means he was a full year younger when he signed his deal. 

Most importantly, though, Díaz was signing a deal at the Buy It Now price. Steve Cohen, the Mets' wildly aggressive and mega-rich owner, wanted to keep his beloved closer and the trumpets that became such a sensation alongside him at Citi Field in 2022, and he didn't care about shelling out several million more dollars than other teams would have given Díaz. Once Hader actually hit free agency (rather than being brought back by an overeager incumbent, which was never on the table in his case), $100 million was essentially off the table.

Two months have passed since then, and while this winter's market for player talent has moved much slower than other recent ones, that much time depresses the asking price and shifts leverage away from a player and toward whatever teams have interest in him. At this point, I don't think it's at all certain that Hader will get a five-year deal. If he does, it'll come in at the same $16-million annual average value for which Kenley Jansen has been working for almost a decade. If he wants to eclipse that number and get closer to $20 million in AAV, he'll have to settle for a four-year term.

We're starting to get into the realm, then, at which Jed Hoyer's ears perk up. Hoyer might not want to spend massive money on a reliever, but he's opportunistic when he senses good value. Much could depend on Craig Counsell, here. If Counsell gives the green light on Hader's makeup and clubhouse presence (which, by the end of his time in Milwaukee, were widely praised), then a four- or five-year deal worth a total of $80 million probably makes sense. 

A Cubs bullpen with Hader would be such a different animal than the current hodgepodge that it's hard to express it in simple terms. He's a very traditional closer who expects to be used pretty lightly, and that should and will restrict his value a bit. It's why he's not going to get Díaz money. On the other hand, slotting him into a low-maintenance, high-octane role shutting down games with ruthless efficiency in the ninth inning would free Counsell up to make more creative, versatile use of all the other arms already in the mix for Chicago.

Adbert Alzolay is a good-not-great relief ace. As the second-best arm in a bullpen with an elite closer, he goes from fun to downright sterling. Stack Mark Leiter, Jr. and Julian Merryweather in with Alzolay, and you've got an impressive corps of setup men, plus the ability to rest them more often. As is true of signing an ace starter, bringing in an ace reliever pushes everyone else on the depth chart down one space, thereby making them all a bit more valuable.

Hader comes with plenty of red flags. He has already gone through one or two miniature crises, as almost every great closer does during their careers, and while it's encouraging that he seems to have adjusted and moved past them, those rough patches leave us with vivid insight into his particular mortality as a great reliever. Despite careful usage and the lightest total innings load for which any closer can reasonably hope, Hader's fastball velocity dipped in 2023, and his slider velocity keeps climbing. 

Diminished velocity separation makes it harder to miss bats with either offering, especially when the arsenal is relatively limited. Hader has seen his release point creep upward, such that he's not creating quite as extreme a horizontal or vertical angle for hitters as he used to, and while doing that has maintained a steady vertical movement differential between his two crucial offerings, it's come at the cost of some horizontal movement gap. Changes like these can seem trivial for a starter with a deeper arsenal, or for any pitcher in his mid-20s. For a two-pitch reliever who turns 30 in April, they beget some genuine concern.

That said, the man struck out 36.8 percent of opposing batters in 2023, and that was his worst mark since he was a rookie. It's a video-game number. He's become more walk-prone as he's adapted and (inevitably, because every reliever does almost as soon as they drive off the lot of their Triple-A apartment building) declined, but he's also become an adroit avoider of home runs. His stuff overpowers hitters and induces extremely weak contact. During his tenure in Atlanta, Hader only gave up home runs to 1.3 percent of opposing batters. That's less than half the league's rate.

If the Cubs can get Hader for what I think they can now get Hader for, they ought to be interested. The fact that he rejected a qualifying offer and will cost whichever team signs him at least one draft pick does make him slightly less appealing, but then again, maybe you add that to the list of reasons why his leverage is evaporating. If he could be had for $75 million, so much the better. The Cubs would still need to do much more to finish a successful offseason, but as Hader waits, his value sinks. Hoyer will, eventually, smell blood in the water.

What do you make of Hader's unique career and stalled free agency? At what price would he appeal to you? Let us know.