Article: Which of These Cody Bellinger Deals Would You Do?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Don't cave in to Boras. Eventually he will accept 6/150.

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Those steamer projections suck imo.  Agree Happ is healthier.   But I think it's reasonable for Bellinger to put up around 115-120 wRC+

You can make an argument for it. But the 108 wRC he's projected for is based on a .330 wOBA, which is one point off his .331 xwOBA last year. Happ's projections were regressed too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Don't cave in to Boras. Eventually he will accept 6/150.

This is the question for me.  If I can oversimplify in terms of total contract value:

 

• 175+: Cody/Boras would likely accept, there doesn't appear to be any team particularly interested at this level
• 130-175: Unclear if Cody/Boras would accept, they may prefer short term/opt-outs over this.  Unclear how many teams interested at this level, probably a few
• 90-130: Cody/Boras may eventually accept on a short term/opt-out deal, likely a number of teams interested at this level

Obviously there are shades of gray because you can have a larger guarantee that also has opt-outs, but I think that illustrates the tension.  No one wants to give Cody/Boras the top line number they want(or maybe close to it), and there's a lot of haggling on what they actually will accept once they start dipping below that line, since Cody/Boras may want to go well under it for a short term deal to be able to get the big top line number after another year.

One thing that does work in the Cubs favor is they have maximum information on Cody, and Cody clearly loves playing in Chicago, so even in a shorter deal where we go from barely any aggressive suitors to many, they should still be in good position if they choose to do so.

[LBiittner]

Painfully obvious, any projected BORAS contract forecast has to begin with a 2. Nuff said. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Painfully obvious, any projected BORAS contract forecast has to begin with a 2. Nuff said. 

Maybe Boras can sweet talk Arte Moreno into overriding his GM or hold a seance with the ghost of Mike Ilitch or something, but demanding a total value that high isn't going to make an offer at that level manifest itself.  I'd say at this point given who the suitors are and how many have essentially shut themselves off from a contract of that size with other moves, I'd put heavy odds against Bellinger getting 200 million this offseason.  If he does it likely would come through some elaborate option/opt-out machinations.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This is the question for me.  If I can oversimplify in terms of total contract value:

 

• 175+: Cody/Boras would likely accept, there doesn't appear to be any team particularly interested at this level
• 130-175: Unclear if Cody/Boras would accept, they may prefer short term/opt-outs over this.  Unclear how many teams interested at this level, probably a few
• 90-130: Cody/Boras may eventually accept on a short term/opt-out deal, likely a number of teams interested at this level

Obviously there are shades of gray because you can have a larger guarantee that also has opt-outs, but I think that illustrates the tension.  No one wants to give Cody/Boras the top line number they want(or maybe close to it), and there's a lot of haggling on what they actually will accept once they start dipping below that line, since Cody/Boras may want to go well under it for a short term deal to be able to get the big top line number after another year.

One thing that does work in the Cubs favor is they have maximum information on Cody, and Cody clearly loves playing in Chicago, so even in a shorter deal where we go from barely any aggressive suitors to many, they should still be in good position if they choose to do so.

This feels right.  I expect Jed is angling for the low end of door #2 or door #3, but it just takes one of the  Angels/Rockies/Nats to cave in and Boras to get what he wants.  I'll also say if Boras does agree to the third type of deal my confidence that Cody's Renaissance is for real will go up a little bit.

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

  If he does it likely would come through some elaborate option/opt-out machinations.

And Boras will consider it a win. And reap his %

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

And Boras will consider it a win. And reap his %

Boras isn't the bad guy here. I don't get this with fans. 

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Boras isn't the bad guy here. I don't get this with fans. 

I don't think he's a bad guy at all. He sets the parameters in the media. He says something along the lines : Belli will sign for 250m. And then gets no movement. He's perceived as being the beaver that built the dam . 

[Rob]

I hate the billionaire owners. I like most of the players (or at least hate them less than the owners).

If a player is ever in a position to take a bite out of one of the owners, I love that. And if Boras helps them do so, I'm a fan.

[Joj]

7 years, 200M.  Yeah, sure, that's fine.  Even though Bellinger's not really an elite hitter (everyone gets it), the Cubs don't have much leverage.  He's the best available option, by far, and the Cubs CERTAINLY DO have money to spend.

I'm not losing any sleep when they eventually have to overpay by a few million or whatever.  After all, we've watched them underpay for too many years now.  And that's no joke.