Article: Will Ben Brown and Cade Horton Be Part of the Bullpen Solution for the 2024 Cubs?

[Matthew Trueblood]

By broad consensus, the Cubs need more pitching depth to avoid a reprise of the disappointing finish they experienced in 2023. Given the track record of their new manager, one partial solution to the problem might be to do something their old one refused to.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs didn't ultimately decide to move on from David Ross until they realized they had a real chance to get Craig Counsell as his replacement. For many fans and neutral observers, though, the Rubicon was really crossed during the late stages of the season, when Ross responded to some late-season call-ups by letting young players waste away on the bench.

"We're not developing players right now," Ross said in mid-September, when asked whether Pete Crow-Armstrong would play regularly after his arrival from Triple-A Iowa. The underlying mentality--that the priority was winning games down the stretch, not giving Crow-Armstrong time to learn and adjust to big-league pitching--was sound, but it was so woefully incomplete as to be counterproductive. A good manager develops players and pursues the playoffs at the same time. They're not insecure or uncomfortable with complexity. They think in pages, rather than paragraphs or simple sentences, and they know how to juggle torches and chew gum at the same time.

One of the reasons why the Brewers have cruised past the Cubs more often than not over the last half-decade is that Counsell is that kind of multi-track mind. He's always been better at balancing the competing interests and contradictory tasks that fall to a manager of a team trying to be good both in the present and in the future. To take one example, along with longtime pitching coach Chris Hook, Counsell masterfully onboarded and utilized some young Brewers hurlers during his tenure there--including by having some starting pitching prospects work, first, as relievers.

Counsell is far from the inventor of this developmental stratagem. It's almost as old as the professional game, and Earl Weaver popularized it during his long run of success with the Orioles in the 1970s. In Weaver's book, Weaver on Strategy, he gives this as his Eighth Law: "The best place for a rookie pitcher is in long relief." He believed in easing guys with starter upside into the mix as penmen.

Quote

If you have a good club, the prime objective is to win the pennant, and a manager doesn't experiment with kids. Not only is this first year a learning process for the pitcher, it's a learning process for the manager. The manager doesn't know what the pitcher can do in the majors. He has an idea and makes judgments about his talent, but a manager must see the pitcher in game conditions. When the manager puts a rookie into a game and the rookie comes through a few times, the manager begins evaluating,

Rhetorically, that's not far from what Ross said in September. In practice, though, Weaver was being more open-minded, and more proactive. He made his evaluations by giving players a chance to sink or to swim, and he trusted the Baltimore higher-ups to put talented people under his charge so that he wasn't placing that probationary opportunity in undeserving places.

Counsell's way of working in the likes of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes was different than what Weaver did with guys like Dennis Martinez and Scott McGregor, because the game is far different now. In 2018, Burnes made 30 appearances with the Brewers, and 20 of them last three outs or fewer. That still leaves 10, and he did stretch out to as many as three innings, but in short, Counsell and the Brewers brought up a highly-touted pitching prospect to work mostly in short relief, as a means of apprenticing with the parent club. 

Woodruff worked as much more of a true long man that year, even making four spot starts along the way. These weren't any kind of capitulation on promising arms. Using them in relief was just a convenient way to kill two birds with one stone: deepening the team's bullpen, and giving Counsell and Hook much more thorough and intimate knowledge of both hurlers than they'd have had before. A team fortunate enough to develop a surfeit of good pitchers should let some of them reach the majors in relief, as a means of managing growth and dispersing opportunities, and because it's the best way to leverage that extremely valuable strength.

Let's talk, then, about Ben Brown and Cade Horton. The Cubs view both as starting pitchers, in the long run. If the team has a successful winter, though, neither will be in line for starts any time in the first half in Chicago. Maybe the highest short-term use of them is to promote them to the big-league bullpen and lend the club that depth and swing-and-miss that would otherwise be in deficit without some significant external investment.

Is bringing these two top pitching prospects up to buttress the bullpen the right way to address the team's reliever needs going into 2024? Or should they take the plunge and pay for someone like Josh Hader or Robert Stephenson? Let's weigh the options together.

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[Jason Ross]

I think Ben Brown is far more likely to make a bullpen impact than Horton, personally. Especially if the Cubs get, say, a Glasnow, there will likely be starts available. Hendricks, Steele, Taillon and Glasnow have injury histories, and it's likely they'll go down. I'd expect Horton, who's pretty ready as of now, will be option #1 and kind of think he'll make 10-15+ MLB starts this year. Brown, however, with the more spotty fastball control is less likely ready to start, but also, could be a really fun BP addition post-TDL. Might make a few spot starts, but I think I expect him to make more impact bullpen wise.

[Rex Buckingham]

Horton is breaking camp with the big league team and winning ROY. I'm speaking it into existence.

With Brown, it might depend more on who is brought in for the rotation/traded out

[CubinNY]

I could see a future where both will start games in MLB this year. Brown may be filling the swingman role. I can also see a future where he is pitching for another organization. I think he's going to be high on the ask list.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rex Buckingham said:

Horton is breaking camp with the big league team and winning ROY. I'm speaking it into existence.

With Brown, it might depend more on who is brought in for the rotation/traded out

Love the confidence in Horton! 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have a high amount of confidence Horton pitches in the big league pen this year, potentially meaningful innings too.  We know he's probably not ramped to start the whole year, we know Jed really likes breaking in pitchers via the bullpen, and while there are promising options for MIRP(Smyly/Assad/Wesneski) we shouldn't have high confidence that for whatever reason(trade, underperformance, injury) there won't be a need in that role.  Caveat: Counsell may lean less heavily on MIRP than Ross so maybe that part matters a bit less.  I think the telltale sign for Horton is how many net SP they add relative to today's roster, inclusive of Assad/Wesneski/Brown.  If it's zero then they probably are prepared to let it ride with Horton starting games through the season, if it's two he's probably ticketed for the pen, if it's one then it probably depends on the details.

Brown I just don't really know.  Don't know if he'll be in the organization in March, don't know how he'l bounce back from his injury and if his AAA walk rate will calm down, don't know how many innings the org wants to get out of him this year.  I suspect that he's in a bit of a bizarro goldilocks zone where he'll quickly be surpassed by Horton if the team wants impact, but won't show enough improvement in command to be near the top of the pecking order for reliability relative to the trio above or even other AAA RP options(Little, Roberts, Palencia, etc).  So his fate may be dependent on an uncommonly good outcome from him individually or a series of negative circumstances from others.

[Bertz]

I'd expect one or the other but not both to get some lengthy run in the bullpen.  Brown was weeks, maybe days, away from joining the MLB pen this past year, so he feels more likely.  Like TT mentioned he's in this awkward spot where Wicks and Assad are clearly more ready to take immediate MLB innings and Horton is the golden child and not far behind developmentally.  Combined with a cap of probably 130ish innings this year and I don't think it takes a lot more adversity for the attitude to change to "Horsefeathers it let's put him in the pen and let him throw 100"

[Outshined_One]

One of my Cubs predictions I've been tinkering with is that Brown ends the 2024 season as closer, and not because of injuries. His stuff seems tailor-made for late inning relief, and there have been enough questions with Brown's health and durability that it might make more sense to get him innings in AAA until it's clear his command/control issues are in the past, and then promote him for a relief role. Then again, he also could be excellent trade bait for a pitching hungry team.

Horton is more difficult to project in this area. I can see the value if you're concerned about IP and pitch counts, but I also don't want to deviate from what's worked for him so far.  I also think he might be better off sticking as a starter in 2024 to develop his changeup, which he'll at least need as a show me pitch to make it as a starter in the majors.

[Stratos]

Cubs will need to keep some guys stretched out in Iowa.  I think Brown and Horton may stay stretched out in case of injury.  But I guess pen roles aren't out of the question at some point.  They both need more work as SP in AAA for now.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Stratos