Article: Cubs Winter Top Prospects Rankings: #2 Cade Horton

[Jason Ross]

When Cade Horton was drafted seventh overall in 2022 by the Chicago Cubs, many fans questioned the Cubs' choice. A year later, arguing that this is anything short of a "best-case scenario" is hard. Just where do we go from here with the fireballing right-handed pitcher? And when might we see him taking the mound in Chicago?

Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK

2023 Season Review
Entering draft night 2022, rumors swirled that the Cubs would likely draft a hitter. Some believed second baseman Temarr Johnson could float his way down to the seventh pick, others like college sluggers like Jacob Berry or Brooks Lee, and there were possibilities of the Cubs going catcher with Kevin Parada. It was only an hour before the draft that it was suggested a team within the top 10 was looking into Oklahoma right-handed starting pitcher Cade Horton. When it was the Cubs' turn to make their selection (with Brooks Lee and Kevin Parada still on the board), it became apparent just who that team was.

To say opinions on the pick were initially "mixed" would have been an understatement. Statistically, it would be easy to be underwhelmed with the college junior's numbers. With just 53 innings under his college belt and an ERA nearing 5.00, Horton being a top 10 pick seems curious. Where Horton came into his own was his last few starts of the season, as Horton showed at the College World Series, striking out a record 13 Notre Dame hitters, which put his name on the map. Displaying a new slider, the power righty became interesting. Many were wary that the Cubs were buying into the hype and less the pitcher, though, with such a limited track record, and it coming at the very end of the season. 

Entering 2023, Horton curiously started in Myrtle Beach, their low-A affiliate. This was somewhat odd for a first-round selection, but it was reported that the Cubs were just looking after his arm, as Horton was only a little over a year removed from rehabbing Tommy John. Myrtle Beach represented a more welcoming early-season climate, but the former Sooner was not long for low-A. Striking out five in just over two innings, Horton started fast. By May 10th, he was in South Bend.

Despite his first start with the South Bend Cubs being arguably his worst start of the season (six earned runs, three home runs surrendered, in under four innings), Horton again made quick work of the league. At one point, in a 13-inning span from May 24th through June 7th, Horton struck out an astronomical 27 hitters in 13 innings while walking one. The righty would make 11 starts in South Bend before the Cubs again decided that his 12.45 K/9 and 3.83 (2.57 FIP) were just too good for the level, promoting him to Tennessee. 

Upon reaching the Smokies and AA, it wasn't long before it was clear he was also their best arm. In 27 innings, once again, Horton dominated. Striking out ten hitters per nine innings and with a 1.33 ERA,  Horton started the two most important games of the season for Tennessee: their first playoff game and the title clincher. 

It was clear that with a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90s and flashes 98mph, Horton's velocity wasn't an issue. We also knew about the slider: it's good. It was nice to see that Horton continued working on the changeup. While not a pitch he used often, it was a pitch he began to throw more and more as the season went along, specifically against left-handed hitters. Overall, the goateed pitcher struck out 117 hitters, walked just 27, and had a 2.65 ERA throughout 88 innings and 21 starts. It should be no shock that he was eventually named the 2023 Cubs MiLB Pitcher of the Year. There wasn't anyone else who was particularly close.

Circling back to draft day, a lot of credit should go to Cubs area scout Ty Nichols on being high enough on Horton to suggest him in the 2022 draft. While fans may have only have seen the late season hype stemming from his scintillating College World Series starts, it was Nichols who had been in on Horton since his high school days (coming across him while scouting former first round pick Ed Howard). Cade Horton deserves all the awards he earned from his 2023 season, but I'd be remiss if Nichols didn't get mentioned for being the guy who found and lobbied for the MiLB Pitcher of the Year, too.

2024 Season Outlook and ETA
There is no debate about how good of a season Cade Horton had, and there's little doubt that the Cubs made the right choices in the 2023 draft. Other players have had good starts, but Horton is behind Jackson Holliday as having the best starts of the entire field so far. Horton exceeded almost any "best case" for 2023 and allowed the Cubs to draft fellow-top-10 prospect Jackson Ferris. Does it get any better than 1-2 punch in the draft than these two?

None of this should suggest the pitcher is perfect today. The moxie and the mound presence the first-year professional showed was special. Unlike other pitchers I've seen, Cade Horton flat-out-dominates hitters. He does not care about you and will throw his fastball down the pipe, asking you to do something about it. He can get away with that against hitters in lower levels, but it's going to be something he can't do at higher ones. It's not so much a command/control thing but a mentality he has. Being a bulldog is great, but you have to know your limits, too. 

I'd also like him to continue refining the pitch mix and the changeup. His fastball-slider combination is reminiscent of Spencer Strider. You could give him a 70 grade on his fastball and slider if you wanted to, and I don't think you'd sound insane. While Strider has also developed a changeup on the job, it'd be nice if Horton could dial that pitch in just a little more before he makes his debut. It's likely to be a place to work this offseason. The good news? There's a lot of data out there that suggests he could have a third plus pitch in his arsenal sooner rather than later.

The question I've been debating for a while is, "When does Cade Horton make his debut in Chicago?" the answer might surprise you; my hot take of the offseason is that he will debut before May ends. That's an incredible timeline, but I think that highly of him. I think he's close to being ready now, and I'm not alone. Byran Smith, formerly of Bleacher Nation, thinks similarly. There isn't much more here to work on. A little tweaking. A little refining. But his fastball-slider combo plays now, and a little extra work with the changeup should give him enough of a mix to attack right-handed hitters and left alike. Someone will get hurt, and Cade Horton will get a chance to make a start. Based on what I've seen, I have a feeling Horton will impress enough that he does not go back down. I reserve this for few prospects, but I genuinely believe Cade Horton is a special talent. He's not generational, but he is special. This is the best pitching prospect the Cubs have had for a while, and dare I say, since Mark Prior. 

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[CubinNY]

I think before he breaks into the majors he has to show or be let to go longer in a game. I know it’s a six inning game for a lot of starters these days but I’d love to see the Cubs let him throw close to 100 pitches in a game 

[Rex Buckingham]

I predict Horton is on the Opening Day roster and wins ROY, earning the Cubs a PPI draft pick

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think before he breaks into the majors he has to show or be let to go longer in a game. I know it’s a six inning game for a lot of starters these days but I’d love to see the Cubs let him throw close to 100 pitches in a game 

The Cubs just don't do this in the MiLB right now. For example, look at Wicks. He didn't go over 5 innings last year while in Tennessee or Iowa, but went 6+ his first MLB start. They seem to have a set limit they feel comfortable with at lower levels, while they ramp up PC and length at the MLB level.

Edited November 28, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

The complicating factor to him for 2024 is innings.  He's got a cap of what, 120 innings tops?  Even if he's shoving prodigiously, I'm not sure how to bring him up before July-ish.  Like he will need to be in a situation where he can have starts skipped, extra days added, etc. unless we want to either A) do him dirty and send him to the minors even though he's performing in MLB or B) have a Strasburg situation where he's got to be shut down prematurely.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The complicating factor to him for 2024 is innings.  He's got a cap of what, 120 innings tops?  Even if he's shoving prodigiously, I'm not sure how to bring him up before July-ish.  Like he will need to be in a situation where he can have starts skipped, extra days added, etc. unless we want to either A) do him dirty and send him to the minors even though he's performing in MLB or B) have a Strasburg situation where he's got to be shut down prematurely.

I have a feeling they'll go with a 6-man rotation of sorts (though maybe no a full-set-6 man, if that makes snese?) The Cubs have 5 guys right now who can start (though not the 5 guys who should be "the rotation" if that makes sense) in Steele, Hendricks, Wicks, Asad, and Smyly. Wicks has already a good amount of "6-man rotation" in him. Whether the Cubs go with a Glasnow, or a Bieber, or one of the Japanese arms, they'll also be somewhat of an innings-watcher. Japnese arms tend not to pitch as often/much as American arms, and Glasnow/Bieber have plenty of injury concerns. Kind of the perfect situation for a 6-man, if you ask me. So maybe someone gets a break here or there through the order, or a rest. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Outshined_One]

Injuries are inevitable with rotations, sad to say. Even if the Cubs manage to bolster the rotation this offseason with Yamamoto or Imanaga, someone's going to go down with something, or someone is going to need time to deal with dead arm, and that'll be Horton's time. Or hell, maybe the Cubs will tinker with piggybacking him and Wicks or him and Assad to save his innings to get him deeper into September/October.

Needless to say, I am legitimately excited for him. His highlight reel from this past season was pure filth, and it's been awhile since the Cubs had a SP prospect of his caliber.

[CubbyBlue2008]

8 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I have a feeling they'll go with a 6-man rotation of sorts (though maybe no a full-set-6 man, if that makes snese?) The Cubs have 5 guys right now who can start (though not the 5 guys who should be "the rotation" if that makes sense) in Steele, Hendricks, Wicks, Asad, and Smyly. Wicks has already a good amount of "6-man rotation" in him. Whether the Cubs go with a Glasnow, or a Bieber, or one of the Japanese arms, they'll also be somewhat of an innings-watcher. Japnese arms tend not to pitch as often/much as American arms, and Glasnow/Bieber have plenty of injury concerns. Kind of the perfect situation for a 6-man, if you ask me. So maybe someone gets a break here or there through the order, or a rest. 

They technically already have six if you included Taillon.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

They technically already have six if you included Taillon.

He was so bad last year, I forgot he existed. 

[CubbyBlue2008]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He was so bad last year, I forgot he existed. 

That’s certainly fair. I hope he can bounce back and at least be a solid 3 given what we are paying him. Not much hope there though.

[CubinNY]

Cade Horton, a badass. The best pitcher in the Cubs system since Mark Prior. Can't wait to see him in Wrigley. 

[craig]

On 11/28/2023 at 11:54 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

I have a feeling they'll go with a 6-man rotation of sorts (though maybe no a full-set-6 man, if that makes snese?) The Cubs have 5 guys right now who can start (though not the 5 guys who should be "the rotation" if that makes sense) in Steele, Hendricks, Wicks, Asad, and Smyly. Wicks has already a good amount of "6-man rotation" in him. Whether the Cubs go with a Glasnow, or a Bieber, or one of the Japanese arms, they'll also be somewhat of an innings-watcher. Japnese arms tend not to pitch as often/much as American arms, and Glasnow/Bieber have plenty of injury concerns. Kind of the perfect situation for a 6-man, if you ask me. So maybe someone gets a break here or there through the order, or a rest. 

As mentioned, add Taillon to that rotation, Hoyer has no intention of having him not be a part of it.  But take Smyly out.  He was HR-fodder in rotation, but was solid in relief, and the pen is really short on lefty relievers.  Smyly  is better suited for relief than in rotation, and the roster has more need for him in that role.  

I agree on the plausibility of 6-man talk.  I thought Steele looked tired at times late in season; and it probably would have been worse without being on the DL in June.  After only a month in rotation Assad did too.  In years past, vet starters would often have "dead arm" periods.  Wicks has obviously been a 6-day rotation guy, and Horton.  Agree that aquisition names (Glasnow, Bieber, Yamamoto, Imanaga...) are not prepared for 180-inning >30-start grind. 

I think having a depth of guys who can start, so that regular starters all get some breaks, is very desirable.  And as Hoyer continues with the rebuild and involves home-grown pitchers, they'll want to handle those guys with a lot of care.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by craig

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

As mentioned, add Taillon to that rotation, Hoyer has no intention of having him not be a part of it.  But take Smyly out.  He was HR-fodder in rotation, but was solid in relief, and the pen is really short on lefty relievers.  Smyly  is better suited for relief than in rotation, and the roster has more need for him in that role.  

I agree on the plausibility of 6-man talk.  I thought Steele looked tired at times late in season; and it probably would have been worse without being on the DL in June.  After only a month in rotation Assad did too.  In years past, vet starters would often have "dead arm" periods.  Wicks has obviously been a 6-day rotation guy, and Horton.  Agree that aquisition names (Glasno, Bieber, Yamamoto, Imaga...) are not prepared for 180-inning >30-start grind. 

I think having a depth of guys who can start, so that regular starters all get some breaks, is very desirable.  And as Hoyer continues with the rebuild and involves home-grown pitchers, they'll want to handle those guys with a lot of care.  

Oh, Smyly wasn't necessarily "apart" of the rotation, but a guy I expect will make a few starts (and can). I'm not a big Smyly guy (still mad he got a multi-year deal).