Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, ILMindState said:

Oak Brook would be a terrible commute to Wrigley. Especially once construction starts back up. Doesn’t really make sense IMO. 

Unless Bellinger hasn't lived in Chicago long enough to know traffic patterns.

They'd just be looking anyways, it's just a follow.  Bellinger and his wife would by now have an idea of who the top suitors are for a longterm deal.  If it's down to a few teams the wife might be starting to look for a house in these cities in prep when a deal happens.  It's not like she needs a real job to fill her day haha.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It's also 1 year of Burnes at 15 million coming off his worst season.  Maybe they could've consolidated the value more, but that seems uncertain given how teams have clung to prospects, and in their position they're probably better off with more bites at the apple in looking for good players to be a part of their next core.

We only got some lottery tickets for 3 years of control of Yu Darvish, who wasn't quite Burnes but still.  At the time of both deals I'd much prefer the package the Brewers got.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I'd think this would open up an Adames trade and if they go that route they might as well flip Contreras and Williams too.

Ortiz and Hall are MLB ready players.  They didn't get Hoskins to start losing, and Chourio is pretty much ready.  Brewers looking for a quick turnaround.  Wish Jed was able to secure some prospects closer to the MLB when Cubs sold off in 2021

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Brewers have a chance to be pretty bad.  They have enough sophomores and prospects in the upper levels that they could make the transition somewhat smooth, but Wade Miley is their #2 SP and their best hitter might be their catcher?  Like you don't have to squint to see them net a lottery pick.

Can't ever count them out.  But again, they also just received 2 MLB-ready players and might have a very good pen again, and added Hoskins + just saved 15m to use in FA.  Not sure the status of their finances at the moment, but maybe they could turn around and sign Chapman or Montgomery, who knows, especially if they decide to trade Adames.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

This kinda establishes the Dylan cease market right? Because if so, I’m in. 

I think it's a pretty safe bet the Cubs are done with the rotation this offseason, unless someone comes on a 1-year or Montgomery or Snell fall into their lap at a good price.  But I doubt they're actively looking for a key SP piece.

Edited February 2, 2024 by Stratos

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Ortiz and Hall are MLB ready players.  They didn't get Hoskins to start losing, and Chourio is pretty much ready.  Brewers looking for a quick turnaround.  Wish Jed was able to secure some prospects closer to the MLB when Cubs sold off in 2021

Adames is hitting free agency after this year. He will be traded for sure. Ortiz will slot in SS.

[Rcal10]

I have a question on Madrigal’s defensive rating. Is he rated on balls he gets to based on his zone of coverage at 3rd base or is the rating based on all third baseman’s expected zone? In other words if a 3rd baseman plays a little further back he has more area and range. So he would be expected to get to more balls. It is clear Madrigal gets to a lot of balls in his zone. But because he plays in closer, his zone is smaller. Is this accounted for when deeming Madrigal as a plus defender at 3rd base. I would be curious to know how many doubles went down the line or singles that went just over his head that other third baseman may have gotten to. Also curious as to if this is accounted for in his ranking? 

[thawv]

11 hours ago, gocubs218 said:

That package seems light.

Ortiz grades out like Shaw.  Hall is a hard throwing LHP with a good K rate.  And they get next years 34th draft pick.  For one year of Burnes, I think the Crew did more than fine.  Maybe I'm just missing something. 

[thawv]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have a question on Madrigal’s defensive rating. Is he rated on balls he gets to based on his zone of coverage at 3rd base or is the rating based on all third baseman’s expected zone? In other words if a 3rd baseman plays a little further back he has more area and range. So he would be expected to get to more balls. It is clear Madrigal gets to a lot of balls in his zone. But because he plays in closer, his zone is smaller. Is this accounted for when deeming Madrigal as a plus defender at 3rd base. I would be curious to know how many doubles went down the line or singles that went just over his head that other third baseman may have gotten to. Also curious as to if this is accounted for in his ranking? 

Outs Above Average (OAA) is the cumulative effect of all individual plays a fielder has been credited or debited with, making it a range-based metric of fielding skill that accounts for the number of plays made and the difficulty of them. For example, a fielder who catches a 25% Out Probability play gets +.75; one who fails to make the play gets -.25.

At 3B, Nick was tied for 3rd at +11 OAA

Edited February 2, 2024 by thawv

[CubinNY]

34 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have a question on Madrigal’s defensive rating. Is he rated on balls he gets to based on his zone of coverage at 3rd base or is the rating based on all third baseman’s expected zone? In other words if a 3rd baseman plays a little further back he has more area and range. So he would be expected to get to more balls. It is clear Madrigal gets to a lot of balls in his zone. But because he plays in closer, his zone is smaller. Is this accounted for when deeming Madrigal as a plus defender at 3rd base. I would be curious to know how many doubles went down the line or singles that went just over his head that other third baseman may have gotten to. Also curious as to if this is accounted for in his ranking? 

defensive metrics and systems have come a long way, but their still not all that great. However, his defense is pretty good by all the metrics and they take into account what you are getting at. His unorthodox throwing style is offputting but he's been a solid defender at 3rd base both from an eye test (except throwing) and measurement. 

Edited February 2, 2024 by CubinNY

[Jason Ross]

Sounds like Boston is about to make a move. Might be worth a monitor. 

EDIT: Epstein back in Boston as part owner. Kind of cool for him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Ortiz and Hall are MLB ready players.  They didn't get Hoskins to start losing, and Chourio is pretty much ready.  Brewers looking for a quick turnaround.  Wish Jed was able to secure some prospects closer to the MLB when Cubs sold off in 2021

Circling back to this comment - I think Jed did as well as we could have expected with those trades. Ironically the best player we traded brought back the worst package in hindsight. But neither of the players we traded had value comparable to Burnes. Since 2020, Burnes is 2nd in MLB in P fwar. He's only making 15.6 this year. All the smoke around our firesale was teams weren't offering much in terms of MLB ready players. I remember there was some ties to Bohm. That would have been a friggin disaster as he sucks. You have to remember, in 2020, granted under unprecedented circumstances, Bryant was god-awful, and he was slated to make $25m in his final year. Nobody was looking to give up anything substantial for him in the winter. He went out and proved he was still mostly the same hitter but then he had just 2 months to offer a team anything. Rizzo is a 1B who was on a clear decline, and Baez brought the most-enticing return of a recent 1st round CF. 

 

I would also like to point out that from 4/1/2018-06/30/2019 Yu Darvish had thrown 126 innings and ranked 193rd in fwar among P that had thrown 100+, He turned it around and pitched brilliantly for the next 1.5 years/165 IP but halfway into a 6-year deal he had given very mixed results. Not a great bet to make. At 22M salary and coming off a year where teams faced unfamiliar financials I think it's safe to say he had a tepid trade market. Again Jed chose the recent high draft pick. A great deal of patience was required and Caissie still has warts but he's also a EV and barrel monster and looks like likely to be an above-average MLB hitter. Maybe if any of Bryant, Rizzo, or Baez would have performed well in 2020 Jed would have traded them instead of Darvish at the time.  Who knows. I'm sure it hurt to trade a guy that had just finished 2nd in the CY.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

defensive metrics and systems have come a long way, but their still not all that great. However, his defense is pretty good by all the metrics and they take into account what you are getting at. His unorthodox throwing style is offputting but he's been a solid defender at 3rd base both from an eye test (except throwing) and measurement. 

Ok, thanks for the explanation. I feel a little better about his defense. Hopefully he grades out well again next year. 

[Bertz]

 

 

[Rob]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

 

 

I'd love to see the Giants sign one of them. I don't like the fact that they're out there with so much money on hand and so little to spend it on. If they can spend themselves out of the Bellinger/Chapman market, that helps us quite a bit.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Rob said:

I'd love to see the Giants sign one of them. I don't like the fact that they're out there with so much money on hand and so little to spend it on. If they can spend themselves out of the Bellinger/Chapman market, that helps us quite a bit.

I don't think they're a threat at all on Bellinger.  They're too left handed in their OF/1B mix as it is.  But yeah this would potentially crater Chapman’s market.  Like his options would seem to be the Cubs or a small market or rebuilding team like the Tigers or Nats coming out of the woodwork.  Maybe the Angels make Rendon a full time DH?

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, thawv said:

At 3B, Nick was tied for 3rd at +11 OAA

And that's not even close to a full season of work.   He was on a gold glove caliber pace.

Maybe he doesn't do that again, but it still looks like a very good glove there.

[Derwood]

If Bellinger picks Anaheim over Chicago, it's purely a money move, not a "ready to win" move.

Anaheim is in perennial 78-win-purgatory

[Stratos]

38 minutes ago, Bertz said:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=80_39eAx3z8&pp=ygUgVGhlcmUncyBzb21ldGhpbmcgaGFwcGVuaW5nIGhlcmU%3D

[gocubs218]

This account broke the Middleton signing before anyone else.

[Rob]

15 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

This account broke the Middleton signing before anyone else.

So something may or may not have happened, and it may be either good for the Cubs, or bad for the Cubs.

[gocubs218]

Tanner Scott? 

[Post Count Padder]

Catching up, I'm really happy for the Orioles. They get out from under Angelos' cheapskate thumb and get an ace for a reasonable price. Go for it, guys.

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Tanner Scott? 

Yeah one of the Marlins lefty relievers, with Scott being the most likely, should probably be the assumption.