Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Backtobanks]

How about trading Bote and Smyly for Moncada and Kopech. The money ends up $27million -$15.5 million = $11.5 million  net gain this year and next year $5 million (DFA Moncada) + $5-$6 Kopech arbitration - $9.6 million = $1.4 million net gain next year.  Hopefully Moncada has a decent year and then hope that Shaw is ready for 2025.  Add Kopech to our list of young pitchers while giving the WS some salary relief. BBTV shows Smyly + Bote (-4.8 + 0) for Moncada + Kopech (-10.6 + 0.1).

 

[Tryptamine]

The money may be similar,  the upside definitely isn't. Kopech still has actual trade value and Moncada has immense upside if you can get him interested in baseball again.  If I remember correctly,  he has more or less been mentally checked out for a couple years now. He's the kind of guy I'd love to see Counsell get a shot at.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I feel like if the Sox were desperate enough to unload Kopech and Moncada's salaries that they'd take on 12 million in salary that has zero use to their next competitive team to get rid of them, that trade would've happened before mid-January.

 

I do still remain intrigued by Moncada, but the uncertainty with his injuries along with the nature of his contract and the White Sox position makes a match unlikely.  You can't in good conscience take on a 24M LT hit for him this year, and if they're fine holding on to him you're gonna have to definitely talk them into trading him with something of value(doubly so if they're taking on any money).  At that point it becomes a bad type of risky very quickly unless it's a last resort "we struck out on all our other options and this is a way to gamble with found money for 2024" type of situation.

[Bertz]

Yeah Moncada's salary is disqualifying.  You'd need to get him down way further than is realistically going to happen for me to have interest. 

On top of that, he doesn't have a carrying skill you can lean on.  He's not a great glove, he's not super platoonable (and to the extent he is he's a short side guy), he's not like Wisdom where he eats certain pitch types and locations alive, etc.

[Jason Ross]

 

[chopsx9]

19 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

So, you took all of that information and you boiled it down to...that? My very first sentence? That's a bit of a  poor faith argument on your part I very clearly explained how David Bote's exit velocity had plenty of process issues, as well as providing data from Mike Petriello on Bellinger. Yes, hitters who strike out less can have lower rates, but it's not a hard and fast rule. Cody's average exit velocity sucked. So did his max exit velocity. So did his HR distance. This isn't someone who just made a lot of contact and so his exit velocity was bad, it was that he made weak contact consistently regardless. His max exit velocity was 221st and his max HR distance was 124th. 

Comparing Bellinger to Freeman also goes off the rails pretty quickly. Yes, Freeman's average exit velocity was 92nd, but his barrel% was 15th in baseball, the guy found the barrel constantly. He literally doubled Bellinger's barrel total. ZiPS has Bellinger at a 108 wRC+ next year versus 143 for Freeman. While I think former seasons and injury years are dragging Bellinger down a bit, ZiPS takes into account batted ball data, too. There's a reason why ZiPs thinks Freeman is 43% better than average and Bellinger is...well 8%. Is ZiPS end-all-be-all? No. But it's a much better projection system than "well I just feel" and that feels like what you're doing with Bellinger. You want so badly for him just to be great that you've allowed that to be all you can see.

Teams should care. Clearly they do. If they didn't, Cody Bellinger, the 135 wRC+ player would have been signed. You sign a135 wRC+ CF'er to a $200m during the Winter Meetings if you truly believe he's 35% better than average. Not a single team has made him a priority for that amount to date. And before we get into the "Boras clients!" argument, Boras had a CF free agent already sign with a team (who could have used a 35% better than league average CF'er!)...Boras clients can be signed. 

I think Bellinger is a fine player. I also think he's likely a 3 or a 3.5 fWAR player moving forward unless he changes his batted ball profile. I'd be fine with the Cubs signing him to something like 6/$25m AAV or so. But we have to live in reality where his batted ball data matters when we talk about 2024 and beyond.

 

Well guess part of my response would be that you seem to want the the batted ball data to be the be all and end all and that is all you are seeing.   In any case if Bellinger finishes the year with 2.7 WAR for a full 2024 I will quote this post and tip my hat...should he finish with 5.5 however....

Edited January 15, 2024 by chopsx9

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Well guess part of my response would be that you seem to want the the batted ball data to be the be all and end all and that is all you are seeing.   In any case if Bellinger finishes the year with 2.7 WAR for a full 2024 I will quote this post and tip my hat...should he finish with 5.5 however....

Well, now we're just putting words in my mouth, Chops. I've never once said that his batted ball data is the "end all be all". I've said I don't think he can keep being 35% better than average with well below average batted ball data. That isn't to say he also doesn't do somethings that mitigate that; his base running turns a few singles into doubles, and his two strike approach will likely allow him to BABIP a bit better than others. It's that it's incredibly hard to make that much weak contact and be as good as he was last year on a consistent, year to year basis.

I'm not alone, either, as fangraphs, ZiPS, Mike Petriello...they all seem to agree. I'm not just making up these concerns or anything. It's okay to point out concerns in players profiles. This is no different than pointing out swing% issues, or launch angle issues, BABIP issues, HR/FB% issues...almost every player has some question marks. It's not disparaging to point them out and Bellinger doesn't need defended at every crossroads. 

Lastly, I won't be quoting any posts at the end of the season. I will gladly admit I'm wrong if he posts similar batted ball and keeps being a 136 wRC+ hitter, but I can't see any realistic scenario in which Cody Bellinger will post similarly bad batted ball data and then end up better than last year (he wasn't even playing at a 5.5 fWAR pace last year if he played 162 games). If he gets to 5.5 fWAR, it'll be, almost assuredly, that he improved his batted ball (or that his defense was just other worldly); something I've never claimed he couldn't do (though based on his trends, does feel a bit unlikely, however certainly not impossible). In which case, I'll still be correct today for pointing out that he can't keep the same batted ball profile and repeat a 136 wRC+. It's just really unlikely.

In the end, if the Cubs sign Cody Bellinger I'll root for him to have a great season. He seems well liked by his teammates and a pretty decent dude from the outside. He seemed to like being here...that's good. The Cubs doing well is always more important than my silly little opinions. But I'll remain steadfast in that I very strongly believe that unless Cody Bellinger's batted ball gets better, he'll likely regress some.

[thawv]

On 1/13/2024 at 9:51 PM, Stratos said:

After what happened last season with this group of arms, if they only add 1 more arm plus Almonte, who sucks, then that's a huge fail.  Just like how Cuas wasn't enough.

Little is a new arm this year.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Brown isn't another new arm.  I'm hoping that either Brown or Little end up in the closer's role, with the other being the 8th inning guy.  Adbert for the 7th or middle relief. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

Little is a new arm this year.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Brown isn't another new arm.  I'm hoping that either Brown or Little end up in the closer's role, with the other being the 8th inning guy.  Adbert for the 7th or middle relief. 

It's pretty unlikely they'll replace Alzolay in the 8th and 9th innings this season. Alzolay had a wonderful year last season, tied for the 13th best according to fWAR in 2023. Unless he falls off a decent amount, there's little to no way two rookies will replace him there. Not saying I'm not rooting for Little and Brown who both look very interesting, just that...that's probably a good step too far. Brown probably won't be up until July, anyways. Not really enough time to become the closer in a playoff race as a rookie.

[thawv]

21 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If Morel can’t play 3rd(which it appears he can’t) and Busch is at 1st, there are a few options via trade but all come with some issues. Kim of SD if they want to dump some more salary, Polanco (but he hasn’t played much third), Lowe of Tampa(but he hasn’t played 3rd), JDDavis, Gleybor Torres, Bohm, Burger. I guess Moncada too, but with that salary I have to think a much bigger deal would have to be made for the Cubs to take Moncada and that salary. I’m sure some of these guys aren’t even available. Just looking at options. I guess you can add Bregman and Bichette if you want to go big. Several of the guys mentioned are either FA after this season or the next. Which works for the Cubs if they want to leave the position open for someone in the organization in a year or two. Much better options that Chapman for the next 4-6 years. 

You don't see Shaw as the long term answer?  Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but I personally think that it's a forgone conclusion that he's going to be playing 3B for the next 6, maybe more years.  I'm a huge Shaw fan, and I'd be very upset if they brought in yet another third baseman. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 

Then maybe they should should have actually landed the names that would have drawn all the attention in Japan. When 1 team has Ohtani and Yamamoto and the other has Seiya and Imanaga, it's obvious who kids are going to grow up watching and cheering for. It's an incredibly half ass attempt.

[WhyCantWeWin]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Then maybe they should should have actually landed the names that would have drawn all the attention in Japan. When 1 team has Ohtani and Yamamoto and the other has Seiya and Imanaga, it's obvious who kids are going to grow up watching and cheering for. It's an incredibly half ass attempt.

I agree. If ohtani and Yamamoto play well, it's going to be all about the Dodgers. Players are going to follow the big names 

[thawv]

50 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It's pretty unlikely they'll replace Alzolay in the 8th and 9th innings this season. Alzolay had a wonderful year last season, tied for the 13th best according to fWAR in 2023. Unless he falls off a decent amount, there's little to no way two rookies will replace him there. Not saying I'm not rooting for Little and Brown who both look very interesting, just that...that's probably a good step too far. Brown probably won't be up until July, anyways. Not really enough time to become the closer in a playoff race as a rookie.

It's my wishful thinking scenario.  I'm not a fan of Adbert closing out games.  Last year he did a nice job.  But when they're ready to win the WS, I don't think for on minute that he's the guy that should be closing.  I just don't see him as a closer on a WS team.  I'd like to see him in the 7th inning role sooner than later.

Why do you think that Brown won't be up until July.  Is he still hurt?  If not, he's 24 entering his 8th year in the minors, with 3 plus pitches.  Surely that will play out of the pen on OD.  That's if he's healthy.  If he's healthy, the Cubs will be the reason he's not on the OD roster, and not him.   

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, thawv said:

You don't see Shaw as the long term answer?  Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but I personally think that it's a forgone conclusion that he's going to be playing 3B for the next 6, maybe more years.  I'm a huge Shaw fan, and I'd be very upset if they brought in yet another third baseman. 

I absolutely am not counting on Shaw this year. As usual you are way out ahead of the timeline, He played 40 games after college and you have him a star. IMO. I can see him maybe in 25’ if he does well this year. Hopefully for sure by 26’. And I can see him for a solid 6 years. But I definitely am not penciling him in the lineup now. He is the reason I don’t see Chapman. I want a guy with 1 or 2 years left. This way Shaw could take over. I just don’t want to count on him in May. 

[Tim]

39 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Then maybe they should should have actually landed the names that would have drawn all the attention in Japan. When 1 team has Ohtani and Yamamoto and the other has Seiya and Imanaga, it's obvious who kids are going to grow up watching and cheering for. It's an incredibly half ass attempt.

Go get Sasaki next year (or the year after, I forget which). It won't be even, but we'd be head and shoulders over the other 28.

[Tim]

8 minutes ago, thawv said:

It's my wishful thinking scenario.  I'm not a fan of Adbert closing out games.  Last year he did a nice job.  But when they're ready to win the WS, I don't think for on minute that he's the guy that should be closing.  I just don't see him as a closer on a WS team.  I'd like to see him in the 7th inning role sooner than later.

Why do you think that Brown won't be up until July.  Is he still hurt?  If not, he's 24 entering his 8th year in the minors, with 3 plus pitches.  Surely that will play out of the pen on OD.  That's if he's healthy.  If he's healthy, the Cubs will be the reason he's not on the OD roster, and not him.   

I have to say, I looooove having a closer that doesn't walk the tying run into scoring position.

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 minutes ago, thawv said:

It's my wishful thinking scenario.  I'm not a fan of Adbert closing out games.  Last year he did a nice job.  But when they're ready to win the WS, I don't think for on minute that he's the guy that should be closing.  I just don't see him as a closer on a WS team.  I'd like to see him in the 7th inning role sooner than later.

Why do you think that Brown won't be up until July.  Is he still hurt?  If not, he's 24 entering his 8th year in the minors, with 3 plus pitches.  Surely that will play out of the pen on OD.  That's if he's healthy.  If he's healthy, the Cubs will be the reason he's not on the OD roster, and not him.   

Do you think fans of the Rangers thought Jose Leclerc or Josh Sborz would be capable of closing out a World Series in 2023? 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Do you think fans of the Rangers thought Jose Leclerc or Josh Sborz would be capable of closing out a World Series in 2023? 

Probably not.  But I personally see both Little and Brown as better options in the 9th.  Just my opinion. 

[chopsx9]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well, now we're just putting words in my mouth, Chops. I've never once said that his batted ball data is the "end all be all".

Absolutely not putting words in your mouth.

" that you seem to want the the batted ball data to be the be all and end all" is what I typed which is much less making proclamations on someone else's behalf than your "You want so badly for him just to be great that you've allowed that to be all you can see."  I at least qualified my statement.

Yes I realize 5.5 WAR would be higher than this year - that's my figure - partly for effect - because I think he will be better.  Go hard or go home.

As to him achieving that level of WAR if his batted ball data returns to previous data is kind of my point.  I think the batted ball data is the outlier not the results.  You've already stated - and please correct me if in I am wrong - that there are no indications he can return to his previous BBD and achieve similar results.  I don't believe one years worth of data is a rock solid indicator of that - especially when coupled with actual typical results.

Again...we'll see.

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Absolutely not putting words in your mouth.

" that you seem to want the the batted ball data to be the be all and end all" is what I typed which is much less making proclamations on someone else's behalf than your "You want so badly for him just to be great that you've allowed that to be all you can see."  I at least qualified my statement.

Yes I realize 5.5 WAR would be higher than this year - that's my figure - partly for effect - because I think he will be better.  Go hard or go home.

As to him achieving that level of WAR if his batted ball data returns to previous data is kind of my point.  I think the batted ball data is the outlier not the results.  You've already stated - and please correct me if in I am wrong - that there are no indications he can return to his previous BBD and achieve similar results.  I don't believe one years worth of data is a rock solid indicator of that - especially when coupled with actual typical results.

Again...we'll see.

You can see his batted ball data. Here's the thing: this is the norm, Chops. It's been the norm since his injury. It got better but not significantly better. What data here suggests he can get back to 2019? It's 2024. We have had 1,699 PA's of results from 2020 to 2023. I think we can say that he's healthier now and that 2023 was better. He made some important approach changes, specifically with two strikes. But what in this information do you think suggests he's ever reaching 2019 levels again? This isn't one year of data, it's years of data. We can say that 2023 Cody Bellinger was better, but that doesn't mean we just simply ignore 2020-2022 because we feel like it. 

If you think this is me making the "batted ball data the end all be all" then you're not really being fair to my overall argument. I'm saying that the batted ball data highly suggests regression from 2023 to something more around 110-120 wRC+. That's a good player; and better than 2020-2022.  I've also said there are some underlying things that he does better to help mitigate the batted ball data, too, but that it's just not enough. That's not the "end all be all" that's just the reality. 2019 Cody Bellinger probably isn't coming back unless his batted ball data gets much better very quickly and without warning. I also think 2023 Bellinger is a bit better than we can expect 2024 Bellinger to be. But that also doesn't mean he'll be bad...just....not as good as he was last year, probably.

[WhyCantWeWin]

16 minutes ago, Tim said:

Go get Sasaki next year (or the year after, I forget which). It won't be even, but we'd be head and shoulders over the other 28.

Sasaki can be posted next year I think. Murakami is the guy after next year I think. Slugging lefty 3rd basemen 👀

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 minutes ago, thawv said:

Probably not.  But I personally see both Little and Brown as better options in the 9th.  Just my opinion. 

Pure lunacy thawv, damn 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Sasaki can be posted next year I think. Murakami is the guy after next year I think. Slugging lefty 3rd basemen 👀

Sasaki is gonna get 400m. 23 y/o, healthy as a horse, no size concerns, some of the best stuff in the world. 

[Jason Ross]

35 minutes ago, thawv said:

It's my wishful thinking scenario.  I'm not a fan of Adbert closing out games.  Last year he did a nice job.  But when they're ready to win the WS, I don't think for on minute that he's the guy that should be closing.  I just don't see him as a closer on a WS team.  I'd like to see him in the 7th inning role sooner than later.

Why do you think that Brown won't be up until July.  Is he still hurt?  If not, he's 24 entering his 8th year in the minors, with 3 plus pitches.  Surely that will play out of the pen on OD.  That's if he's healthy.  If he's healthy, the Cubs will be the reason he's not on the OD roster, and not him.   

Okay so first...why? Adbert Alzolay was really good last year. He struck out over a hitter per inning and he doesn't walk anyone. He had the 13th best fWAR. It's just about being good. Alzolay is good.

Secondly, you cannot believe for half a second Ben Brown is making the OD roster. You know better then that. He was hurt and terrible last season in AAA over the last 2 months. Now I think part of that was he was hurt, but he has major control issues. Also, the Cubs have a bunch of arms ahead of him. He's going to be in Iowa OD and he's going to start down there. Unless a rash of injuries hit the BP, yes, he's going to be down until July. You know that, thaw. He might not even be in the BP in Chicago! He very well may start games. He's been a consistent starter thus far and until the Cubs decide to move him to the pen, he'll remain a starter. They've made no such decision to my knowledge. 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, thawv said:

Probably not.  But I personally see both Little and Brown as better options in the 9th.  Just my opinion. 

How do you make such statements? You saw one guy throw maybe 15 innings and the other guy hasn’t even been up. And you see them over a guy who was one of the best closers in the game once he got the official role. TBH, I hope you are right. Because if you are the Cubs will have a dominate pen. And then they have another guy you consider a star, Canario, in center and with Shaw at 3rd, another star, they should win 100 games. Somehow I doubt any of this actually happens.