Cubs offseason chit chat...

[thawv]

17 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Where would Grissom land in the pecking order of Cub similar top prospects?

I think that 1908 would know more, but I'd pencil him in the middle of our 45 FV prospects.  Maybe mid teens?

[Backtobanks]

16 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

2 seasons since 2015 putting up over 1.1 fWAR and never having broken 2.8. You could get that same production out of Madrigal

2019	27	NYY	AL	132	476	442	73	139	34	0	21	74	1	1	25	87	.314	.355	.534	.889	133	236	13	5	0	4	1	*5H/D37
2020	28	NYY	AL	43	174	151	24	45	11	0	6	30	1	0	18	25	.298	.368	.490	.858	137	74	6	1	0	4	0	*5/H
2021	29	NYY	AL	116	442	420	42	112	18	2	14	49	1	0	20	109	.267	.301	.419	.720	96	176	16	1	0	1	0	56/H
2022	30	MIN	AL	144	551	501	61	143	27	3	13	64	1	0	41	96	.285	.338	.429	.767	119	215	21	2	0	7	2	*5/DH6
2023	31	L  Injured

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

2019	27	NYY	AL	132	476	442	73	139	34	0	21	74	1	1	25	87	.314	.355	.534	.889	133	236	13	5	0	4	1	*5H/D37
2020	28	NYY	AL	43	174	151	24	45	11	0	6	30	1	0	18	25	.298	.368	.490	.858	137	74	6	1	0	4	0	*5/H
2021	29	NYY	AL	116	442	420	42	112	18	2	14	49	1	0	20	109	.267	.301	.419	.720	96	176	16	1	0	1	0	56/H
2022	30	MIN	AL	144	551	501	61	143	27	3	13	64	1	0	41	96	.285	.338	.429	.767	119	215	21	2	0	7	2	*5/DH6
2023	31	L  Injured

I would say he is an upgrade over MadrigL. Seems you would get league average offense as the floor in him with a chance at a 120+’guy who can hit 15-25 homers if he is healthy for the year. That is  it Madrigal numbers. He isn’t a guy I would want to be the bat they got, but if he is a second or 3rd piece added that would be ok. IMO he isn’t a guy they should be targeting, but he is exactly the type Jed likes. (The “Mancini” signing of 2024). 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

 

Red Sox do not appear to be shopping top of market 

Quote

To do so, however, more subtraction may come first. According to a baseball source, the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to. It’s no coincidence, then that the Sox shaved nearly $4 million in salary by swapping Verdugo (projected to earn $9.2 million in arbitration) for O’Neill (projected $5.5 million) and $8.6 million more (based on CBT calculations) by moving on from Sale.

 

Quote

Breslow’s budget for 2024 remains unclear, at least publicly. But recent history shows that the first CBT threshold, where penalties start coming into play, isn’t necessary ownership’s guiding light. According to baseball sources, the front office went into last winter with a mandated budget of $225 million, which was significantly under the first CBT threshold of $233 million.

 

Quote

 

The free agent market still boasts plenty of options for teams looking for starters, including two front-line options in Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell and a bevy of other options like Shōta Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, Yariel Rodriguez, Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea, James Paxton and Hyun Jin Ryu. The industry does not view the Red Sox as frontrunners to sign either Montgomery or Snell, though, meaning cheaper options like Clevinger, Lorenzon, Paxton or Ryu might be better fits, especially after the $19 million commitment to Giolito. The trade market remains a potential, if not more likely, avenue through which Breslow could make a sizable upgrade.

The Red Sox are unlikely to be major players for rentals like Cleveland’s Shane Bieber and Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes or even White Sox righty Dylan Cease, who is two years away from free agency. The goal, then, will be to add a young, controllable starting pitcher — a piece one source recently described as the organization’s “white whale” in recent years.

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Giving Breslow a favored pet pitching prospect down system for Jansen is an idea I don't hate on its face.

[Rcal10]

Would an off season where the Cubs sign Urshela, a pen arm around $5M annual, and one of the top lefties available, plus trade for Bieber and Naylor be a successful off season? With each passing day I find myself expecting less and less. Is this as little as they can do and still be called a division favorite. Or is this not good enough. They would have a nice rotation. PCA or Tauchman in center and Morel the DH. 
 

This is far from what I hoped at the start of the off season. And I still am hoping for more. But I can honestly say I am not even sure they do this much. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Rcal10

[Tryptamine]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Would an off season where the Cubs sign Urshela, a pen arm around $5M annual, and one of the top lefties available, plus trade for Bieber and Naylor be a successful off season? With each passing day I find myself expecting less and less. Is this is little as they can do and still be called a division favorite. Or is this not good enough. They would have a nice rotation. PCA or Tauchman in center and Morel the DH. 

I'm not sure this makes them any better than they ended 2023. Urshela is a bit of a 3B offensive upgrade, but a defensive downgrade. Naylor should be a significant upgrade at 1B, but realistically,  the Cubs are getting a significant offensive down grade in CF. So maybe the offense is very slightly better. I'm not sure that Bieber is even an upgrade over 2023 Stroman.  This is ,more or less, bring back the same talent level as the 2023 Cubs, but with pieces swapped.

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not sure this makes them any better than they ended 2023. Urshela is a bit of a 3B offensive upgrade, but a defensive downgrade. Naylor should be a significant upgrade at 1B, but realistically,  the Cubs are getting a significant offensive down grade in CF. So maybe the offense is very slightly better. I'm not sure that Bieber is even an upgrade over 2023 Stroman.  This is ,more or less, bring back the same talent level as the 2023 Cubs, but with pieces swapped.

You are leaving out a top pitcher. That is where they are better. They were an 83 win team last year that may have underachieved at the end. If they bring back an offense as good as last year, maybe a better defense, with an upgrade in center and 1B and add a TOR starter wouldn’t that make them an 87-90 win team. 
 

A far cry from what I had hoped staring the off season. But probably closer to what they will do. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Rcal10

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

You are leaving out a top pitcher. That is where they are better. 

Was top lefty meant to be a starter? I read it as reliever.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Was top lefty meant to be a starter? I read it as reliever.

Sorry, I meant starter. Then a relief pitcher at $5M. 

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, thawv said:

I think that 1908 would know more, but I'd pencil him in the middle of our 45 FV prospects.  Maybe mid teens?

Higher. He was 21 and put up a 135 wRC+ in AAA. There's some question on the overall power profile and if he's really a SS, but I'd put him in the 2nd tier of prospects. I'd have PCA (floor) and Horton (I think he's that good) above him. Grissom would live with the Shaw/Alcantara/Caissie group for me. Rank 'em at your pleasure.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Higher. He was 21 and put up a 135 wRC+ in AAA. There's some question on the overall power profile and if he's really a SS, but I'd put him in the 2nd tier of prospects. I'd have PCA (floor) and Horton (I think he's that good) above him. Grissom would live with the Shaw/Alcantara/Caissie group for me. Rank 'em at your pleasure.

I think I'd have Shaw ahead of him as well, but I'd comfortably put him 4 with arguments that could be made for #3.

[Jason Ross]

39 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I think I'd have Shaw ahead of him as well, but I'd comfortably put him 4 with arguments that could be made for #3.

Personal standpoint: I'd have him at the bottom of that group. Which on the surface sounds like I'm being a Cubs-rosey glassed guy, but I just don't love the upside. Don't think he's a SS. Questionable power. I think his floor is around that of a Shaw in that both have upside contact but iffy defense but the upside on Grissom is much less. Alcantara's pure upside is so huge and Caissie's bat, even as a strong side platoon, has so much potential. Still think he's a good prospect but I like our three more.

 

Good writeup from a few scouts here can show you where industry folks sit:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html

[Tryptamine]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Personal standpoint: I'd have him at the bottom of that group. Which on the surface sounds like I'm being a Cubs-rosey glassed guy, but I just don't love the upside. Don't think he's a SS. Questionable power. I think his floor is around that of a Shaw in that both have upside contact but iffy defense but the upside on Grissom is much less. Alcantara's pure upside is so huge and Caissie's bat, even as a strong side platoon, has so much potential. Still think he's a good prospect but I like our three more.

 

Good writeup from a few scouts here can show you where industry folks sit:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html

I only put him above Caissie because I think Caissie is destined for 1B and you need to absolutely mash to create significant value there, while Grissom can be a solid 2B and put up a 3 fWAR season. With Alcantara I still don't know what to think. He's a guy who, if it comes together, could seriously post 6 and 7 fWAR seasons, but could also be a complete wash out based on his contact issues as he continues to progress.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I only put him above Caissie because I think Caissie is destined for 1B and you need to absolutely mash to create significant value there, while Grissom can be a solid 2B and put up a 3 fWAR season. With Alcantara I still don't know what to think. He's a guy who, if it comes together, could seriously post 6 and 7 fWAR seasons, but could also be a complete wash out based on his contact issues as he continues to progress.

Either way, before or after Cassie, just being in that group seems to be a lot for 1 year of Sale. So does Bieber costs the Cubs Alcantara. Bieber has to be considered similar to Sale as far as cost to acquire, right? 

[LBiittner]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Either way, before or after Cassie, just being in that group seems to be a lot for 1 year of Sale. So does Bieber costs the Cubs Alcantara. Bieber has to be considered similar to Sale as far as cost to acquire, right? 

I wouldn't do alycat for Bieber- nope

[Derwood]

I went on vacation a week ago and come back to the exact same conversation. Oof 

[Tryptamine]

31 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Either way, before or after Cassie, just being in that group seems to be a lot for 1 year of Sale. So does Bieber costs the Cubs Alcantara. Bieber has to be considered similar to Sale as far as cost to acquire, right? 

I'm not sure I go any higher up the prospect ladder than Triantos

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not sure I go any higher up the prospect ladder than Triantos

But the Guardians would have a pretty good argument for more, if Sale got a guy in that level. Maybe the Cubs can give a couple guys. Canario+ kind of deal. 

[CubinNY]

32 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But the Guardians would have a pretty good argument for more, if Sale got a guy in that level. Maybe the Cubs can give a couple guys. Canario+ kind of deal. 

Maybe they should not do that though. Bieber is not a long term option. 
 

I’ve been as critical as anyone, but some of this is people wanting something to happen for its own sake. 
 

I don’t want them giving up much for him. 

[Bertz]

Quote

So while the Blue Jays have maintained interest in Cody Bellinger this off-season, recent deals with Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa made it abundantly clear they’re not waiting on a decision from the 28-year-old. It’s now hard to see Bellinger landing with the Blue Jays, who have turned their attention to one of his former teammates.

 

Quote

One way or another, though, it continues to seem more likely that the Blue Jays add a number of players on more modest deals instead of going ‘all-in’ for a single player. And for the time being, Pederson’s a name worth watching.

In my mind a Matt Chapman reunion still seemed pretty likely before reading this.  I'm a bit nervous on the pitching front, but things are playing out for Jed to absolutely clean up on the position player front.

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Maybe they should not do that though. Bieber is not a long term option. 
 

I’ve been as critical as anyone, but some of this is people wanting something to happen for its own sake. 
 

I don’t want them giving up much for him. 

That is fair. Really the point I am making is maybe Jed isn’t making moves because for trades he has to overpay with prospects he doesn’t want to deal, and shouldn’t. And in free agency guys like Bellinger or Chapman or one of the top pitchers are still not reasonable. Maybe the delay works. But it only takes one team to cave on each guy and Jed will be left with nothing to add. Guess it is a high stakes gamble by Jed. Maybe it works or maybe we start next year with Assad and Wicks at the back of the rotation and Mervis as the first baseman, Madrigal at 3rd and PCA/Tauchman in center. And 3rd place in the central locked down. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

In my mind a Matt Chapman reunion still seemed pretty likely before reading this.  I'm a bit nervous on the pitching front, but things are playing out for Jed to absolutely clean up on the position player front.

Love the enthusiasm Bertz. Sure hope the hell you are right. 

[ToolDRT]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

I went on vacation a week ago and come back to the exact same conversation. Oof 

Where did you go? 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not sure this makes them any better than they ended 2023. Urshela is a bit of a 3B offensive upgrade, but a defensive downgrade. Naylor should be a significant upgrade at 1B, but realistically,  the Cubs are getting a significant offensive down grade in CF. So maybe the offense is very slightly better. I'm not sure that Bieber is even an upgrade over 2023 Stroman.  This is ,more or less, bring back the same talent level as the 2023 Cubs, but with pieces swapped.

If the Cubs have more or less similar talent level as 2023 but upgrade the pen and the SP do a bit better, like Taillon, there's a chance they could hit 90 wins.  Their depth in Iowa will be even better this year, pretty elite AAA depth frankly.

The Cubs had a good run differential in 2023, 4th in NL.  The Phillies scored 15 fewer runs than the Cubs and had 90 wins.  The Cubs had a better run differential than the Brewers, who could lock down close leads while the Cubs had major problem for half the year.  I think they add 5 runs easy if they had a better pen in April/May and Sept.