Cubs offseason chit chat...

[17 Seconds]

I don't know how many times we have to have the discussion about how most of the cubs' rumored targets are still on the market. when you consider what they spent last offseason, it's pretty clear what the plan is. they're trying to get deals on bellinger and the other guys we have heard about over and over. will it work? I don't know, but it's pretty clear that they plan to spend (intelligently, of course) this offseason. it's embarrassing that they aren't in on the top guys, and it's pretty ugly right now, but they are not punting 2024.

now please start hating the cubs for the correct reasons

 

 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Swanson was the 4th SS after the other 3 signed. It was hardly a bidding war for him. Cubs took the guy who fell. Same with Stoman. Other FA pitchers got 5 and 6 year deals and Stroman was left to sign for 2 with an option. Even last year when they pivoted to Taillon, the early talk was Senga. But then many teams were interested so suddenly he was no longer the Cubs target.

I think the big culprit here is that You are conflating Jed not putting every sordid detail of negotiations in the press with him not being active.  Like c'mon now, players like Swanson or Stroman don't get $25M a year when only one team is bidding for them.

Senga got basically the same money as Taillon (lower AAV but an extra year), so again I'm not sure how you're rationalizing that as losing a bidding war.  Do you really think that Jed liked Senga way more but that last $7M was just a non starter? (not that it matters Senga reportedly loved the idea of pitching in the bright lights of NYC)

And even if you're right, do you really think the markets for Bellinger/Chapman/Imanaga/Montgomery/etc. are especially robust?  That much moreso than e.g. Swanson?  After all no one has signed them yet.  And none of them has had more than a couple of teams connected to them.

[Layoutman]

Polanco being shopped.

Max Kepler Trade Rumors: Twins listening to offers on $35,000,000 star, Jorge Polanco also expected to be dealt (msn.com)

[We Got The Whole 9]

48 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You're missing the point. The point isn't about what we've missed,  the point is that, with each FA off the board, those teams who didn't win the bid will pivot to other players potentially putting more competition on the guys the Cubs want. 

I get the point, I just think that those suitors were always going to be there and the FA actually has to decide he wants to sign with you. Blame Boras for this horsefeathers. People are like, go get the guy(s), but I don't think those players are ready to decide yet, or neither suitor has hit their number and they don't want to accept the fact that they have overpriced themselves. This is all part-and-parcel if you target Boras clients. 

 

 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

 

No one is freaking out. And Ricketts not attending the conversion isn’t the only sign of a lackluster off season. 

You literally updated your 'offseason expectations' or whatever based on this tidbit. It was on the last page.

46 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Swanson was the 4th SS after the other 3 signed. It was hardly a bidding war for him.

Hm, Dansby, it seems like no one else wants you to play baseball for their team. Given that information, and your apparent total lack of bargaining power.....would you like $177 million dollars?

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the big culprit here is that You are conflating Jed not putting every sordid detail of negotiations in the press with him not being active.  Like c'mon now, players like Swanson or Stroman don't get $25M a year when only one team is bidding for them.

Senga got basically the same money as Taillon (lower AAV but an extra year), so again I'm not sure how you're rationalizing that as losing a bidding war.  Do you really think that Jed liked Senga way more but that last $7M was just a non starter? (not that it matters Senga reportedly loved the idea of pitching in the bright lights of NYC)

And even if you're right, do you really think the markets for Bellinger/Chapman/Imanaga/Montgomery/etc. are especially robust?  That much moreso than e.g. Swanson?  After all no one has signed them yet.  And none of them has had more than a couple of teams connected to them.

 Basically we just think differently on how we feel the off season will turn out. There are some who feel the Cubs aren’t going to do enough to be the favorites in the division and some who still expect them to. Those who expect them to are no more unrealistically optimistic than those who don’t expect them to do much, are freaking out. We just think differently. I am fine with you pointing out the off season is young and there are still a lot of opportunities for the Cubs. And, I agree with you, there are. But, IMO, based on reading and listening to things Jed and Hawkins have said I don’t expect many big moves via free agency that will lock them into deals of 4 or more years and I don’t expect any big trades that will cost the Cubs multiple prospects and give them a young’ish’ controlled established star major league ballplayer. I think they are content to add a few short term guys while the young guys come up. 

But, one thing I think we all should agree about is what 17 seconds said. We all should be upset with them for choosing the plan of waiting out the off season for value signings. As a major market there is a time to actually target a guy and get him and build an off season based on that signing instead of waiting around for the rest of baseball to dictate your off season accomplishments. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I get the point, I just think that those suitors were always going to be there and the FA actually has to decide he wants to sign with you. Blame Boras for this horsefeathers. People are like, go get the guy(s), but I don't think those players are ready to decide yet, or neither suitor has hit their number and they don't want to accept the fact that they have overpriced themselves. This is all part-and-parcel if you target Boras clients. 

 

 

Yeah so many of these complaints are just totally taking away agency from the players. Maybe they don't want to play in Chicago in April and May, maybe they think Chicago is some hellhole, maybe they don't want to play under a Ricketts ownership, maybe there's some dude on another team they like playing video games with, maybe like 17 other reasons. If I'm already a multimillionaire in my late 20s, there's like 15 cities I'm immediately crossing off my list. Why are these guys any different?

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

 

But, one thing I think we all should agree about is what 17 seconds said. We all should be upset with them for choosing the plan of waiting out the off season for value signings. As a major market there is a time to actually target a guy and get him and build an off season based on that signing instead of waiting around for the rest of baseball to dictate your off season accomplishments. 

Define 'value signings'. 5 teams have spent over $100m so far this year. 7 teams over $50m. That includes such 'major markets' as Arizona, Cincinnati, and Kansas City. The major market Mets have spent $18m, Astros have spent $12m, Red Sox $1m, Yankees $0m.

As mentioned earlier like, 70% of the top 50 free agents are still available. Maybe we should just take a horsefeathers breather and see what happens? Or, alternatively, take the sun setting in the west each day as yet another piece of evidence that Jed hates all of us and has already penciled Mervis and Madrigal into the starting lineup. Whichever one works better for you!

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Define 'value signings'. 5 teams have spent over $100m so far this year. 7 teams over $50m. That includes such 'major markets' as Arizona, Cincinnati, and Kansas City. The major market Mets have spent $18m, Astros have spent $12m, Red Sox $1m, Yankees $0m.

As mentioned earlier like, 70% of the top 50 free agents are still available. Maybe we should just take a horsefeathers breather and see what happens? Or, alternatively, take the sun setting in the west each day as yet another piece of evidence that Jed hates all of us and has already penciled Mervis and Madrigal into the starting lineup. Whichever one works better for you!

Maybe you should stop telling me how I should feel. Who the hell are you to decide how someone should view the off season. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

There are some who feel the Cubs aren’t going to do enough to be the favorites in the division and some who still expect them to. Those who expect them to are no more unrealistically optimistic than those who don’t expect them to do much, are freaking out.

On one hand, you have today alone people suggesting the Cubs will add no one better than Brandon Belt and a "MORP/BORP" starter, and people calling ownership cowards for not letting 15 Al Yellons ask their weird personal pet peeve questions of them at the convention.  On the other hand, you have people saying that is silly and to let the offseason play out since they've clearly spent significantly in FA before and there's numerous options available.  Sure seems like two sides of the same coin to me?

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe you should stop telling me how I should feel. Who the hell are you to decide how someone should view the off season. 

Is this just like a blog for you? Do you not want people replying to the things that you post here? 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Is this just like a blog for you? Do you not want people replying to the things that you post here? 

I would like people to respect other people’s opinions. Just because people don’t think the same doesn’t mean those who think different should stop posting or step away. Suggesting someone is freaking out because they change their outlook on the off season or suggesting someone should step away because his thoughts don’t line up with others is not acceptable. I am fine with disagreement. Not fine with being talked down to. 

[Layoutman]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would like people to respect other people’s opinions. Just because people don’t think the same doesn’t mean those who think different should stop posting or step away. Suggesting someone is freaking out because they change their outlook on the off season or suggesting someone should step away because his thoughts don’t line up with others is not acceptable. I am fine with disagreement. Not fine with being talked down to. 

Think you are being a little sensitive there was no personal attack here mate.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Layoutman
grammer

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Layoutman said:

Think you are being a little sensitive there was no personal attack here mate.

I’m sorry mate. But when I am told that I should take a horsefeathers breather I do consider that a personal attack. 

[Jfoley89]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Define 'value signings'. 5 teams have spent over $100m so far this year. 7 teams over $50m. That includes such 'major markets' as Arizona, Cincinnati, and Kansas City. The major market Mets have spent $18m, Astros have spent $12m, Red Sox $1m, Yankees $0m.

As mentioned earlier like, 70% of the top 50 free agents are still available. Maybe we should just take a horsefeathers breather and see what happens? Or, alternatively, take the sun setting in the west each day as yet another piece of evidence that Jed hates all of us and has already penciled Mervis and Madrigal into the starting lineup. Whichever one works better for you!

You know, if we didn't have 3 years of Jed accomplishing basically nothing in the offseason, your take would definitely be realistic and valid. However, we're in year 3 of shopping for the scraps no one else wanted.  We waited late to overpay for the last shortstop on the market and we bargain-binned Taillon to be virtually unusable over half the year.  We're still paying this year because Jed screwed up bargain shopping by giving out two years to guys he couldn't even keep on the team. If we paid a little bit more for Senga, this is a playoff team last year. 

[CubinNY]

Cubs signed an AAAA lefty who Carter Hawkins drafted or something in Cleveland a million years ago. 
 

party on.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

You know, if we didn't have 3 years of Jed accomplishing basically nothing in the offseason, your take would definitely be realistic and valid. However, we're in year 3 of shopping for the scraps no one else wanted.  We waited late to overpay for the last shortstop on the market and we bargain-binned Taillon to be virtually unusable over half the year.  We're still paying this year because Jed screwed up bargain shopping by giving out two years to guys he couldn't even keep on the team. If we paid a little bit more for Senga, this is a playoff team last year. 

This is just divorced from reality, there's no coherent argument to be made that they've been 'shopping for scraps no one else wanted'.  It's taking your frustration about the team and retrofitting a narrative for why that is, even if it doesn't fit(and it does not).

[Randall Simon]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

You're missing the point. The point isn't about what we've missed,  the point is that, with each FA off the board, those teams who didn't win the bid will pivot to other players potentially putting more competition on the guys the Cubs want. 

Which is likely why those FAs haven't signed yet. They're waiting until their market builds up, (after others have signed) so they can increase their asking price. The only way to sign these players now, before bigger names sign, is to overpay. Which Jed won't do. So we have to wait until it's their turn in the FA hierarchy. 

[Rcal10]

So in an attempt to explain my reasoning on why I am not expecting much this off season without sounding like I am freaking out, here it goes.

First, listening to Hawkins and Hoyer it honestly sounds like they really like the minor league system. I am not sure they will want to move what is needed in a trade to bring back real talent. Next, based on what has been reported the Cubs are looking for bargains, getting guys who have their market drop. It also appears they don’t want to block prospects, so that FA would probably only be someone they would sign for 3 years. To me, there are only 3 higher end free agents if you include Hoskins. And I don’t think Bellinger or Chapman accept a 3 or 4 year deal. I also don’t know if they would even want Chapman for 4 years. So maybe Hoskins. But it has to be a Jed’s price. So if anyone else wants him over Jed’s comfort level he goes elsewhere.  After those guys there really isn’t much else. JD Martinez for a year, but then does Morel play 3rd?

As for pitchers, I don’t see them going 6 years at $22-$25M for guys like Montgomery, Snell or Imanaga. So where does that leave them? Shopping for MOR or BOR starters. 

And then you have the pen. That is the easiest to predict. Same as every year. Fill in with an arm or two at under $5M. I actually have no problem with this. 
 

This is not Jed bashing. This is not on the edge of the cliff reasoning. This is an honest assessment of what I am seeing..
 

Maybe they make a few smaller trades for guys with one year left on their contract. But based on what Glasnow cost, that might be too pricey too. But, maybe it doesn’t cost a lot of minor league assets. Maybe that is how he puts a good team in the field. I just doubt it is with larger deals or larger trades. 

[Layoutman]

When was the last time Jed traded prospects to upgrade the roster during the off season?  Under Theo does not count. I honestly don't know. But I suspect NEVER as I fear our fearless GM is a prospect hoarder. 

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Actually I do. For several reasons. First, I think we all misread what getting Counsell was about. He likes to play younger guys and give them a chance. So this is fine with him. Then you listen to what Hawkins and Hoyer are saying about wanting to filter in the young guys and not wanting to block them, add their lack of any kind of activity and then finally the convention decision to not have the Ricketts Q&A and it has me truly believing they are not going to do much. Might not be exactly how I am suggesting, but I think it will be under the LT, won’t have any major trades and will not sign a guy for more than 3 years. And that guy won’t be a high end FA anyway. I hope I am wrong. But sure seems to me they are not going to be very aggressive. IMO when the season starts they will not be the central favorite and they will be around an 80-82 win projected team. But they will have all their young talent, for whatever that is worth!!!! 

I didn't,  I've been saying that it likely that the plan may be to see more of what they have in the system with all the guys now that are ready and near ready this season. 

 

Like Carter already admitted, they dont want to block their young prospects with long term commitments. 

They have 3 positions that are open..

1B, 3B, and CF

1B prospect: Mervis,  McGeary 

3B prospect: BJ Murray 

CF prospect: PCA, Kevin Alcantara 

If they bring anyone new in for either of those 3 positions , it'll likely be short term bridge players.

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I didn't,  I've been saying that it likely that the plan may be to see more of what they have in the system with all the guys now that are ready and near ready this season. 

 

Like Carter already admitted, they dont want to block their young prospects with long term commitments. 

They have 3 positions that are open..

1B, 3B, and CF

1B prospect: Mervis,  McGeary 

3B prospect: BJ Murray 

CF prospect: PCA, Kevin Alcantara 

If they bring anyone new in for either of those 3 positions , it'll likely be short term bridge players.

Matt Mervis is 25 years old and will be essentially 26 come opening day. Hayden McGeary is interesting enough. Neither are prospects the Cubs are going to be worried about blocking. They very much could sign a long term option and block either of those two.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Still hoping they sign Belt and JD and either Imanaga or Montgomery, then a cheap dependable leverage RP like Robertson. 

 

I think the Counsell effect needs to be taken into consideration. Jed believes that he put together a playoff team last year and his Manager blew it. He also believes that Counsell had secured a lot of wins over the years that not a lot of Managers would have. So by taking that Manager away from the team that has controlled the division lately he believes they have a shot to take the division back if he at least puts a similarly projected squad out there. 

He also believes that the farm is better equipped this season to supplement the MLB roster and has a Manager now who will help with their development. 

I said when the off-season started that I could see him going whale hunting or bargain hunting for bridge types, not much in between. Unfortunately Ohtani allowed us to be finalists but never considered us. The Yamamoto market has gone haywire. We apparently made a serious offer to Lee but lost that one. Soto would have cost Horton and more. 

 

I guess I just have a hard time really being mad at Jed here. Unless I wanted Sonny Gray or something. 

[Dfan25]

6 hours ago, LBiittner said:

No offence Dfan

But there is no offense in this lineup.

None taken , because I am not saying they should do this . I think they will end up like this due to how Hoyer works . 

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I would like people to respect other people’s opinions. Just because people don’t think the same doesn’t mean those who think different should stop posting or step away. Suggesting someone is freaking out because they change their outlook on the off season or suggesting someone should step away because his thoughts don’t line up with others is not acceptable. I am fine with disagreement. Not fine with being talked down to. 

I don't know what your definition of 'personal attack' is and I certainly didn't imply that you should like, not log onto the board or whatever. But taking the lack of a panel at the Cubs convention and using that as a foundation for lowering your expectations, again, for the offseason, is....kinda the definition of unnecessarily freaking out to me?

Apologies if you took my response as some low blow or insulting or something, but at the same time you've kinda made a habit of coming on here every day and being super negative about this being a lost offseason and using every piece of news out there to like, confirm this pre-set agenda that you have. And I don't think I'm alone here but I'll speak only for myself in that I think you're being overly negative and fatalistic and like, taking pride in how right you think you are because another 24 hours have passed or the Cubs aren't explicitly listed in a tweet about Free Agent X.

And it's a message board, which to my understanding encourages direct interaction, so if you're going to keep posting about it I'm going to tell you that I think you're wrong. Otherwise we're all just like, shouting past each other and we might as well just be tweeting into the void. 

Also, to maybe unfairly appeal to the time I've spent here, but I really don't feel like my responses were anywhere near the level of normal debate here. By all means, feel free to call me a stupid idiot when Matt Mervis is the opening day first baseman. But at least then it will be April.