Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[ToolDRT]

Assuming that’s what happened, there’s a way to get Soto without dealing Horton or PCA, and I think Jed needs to find it if we miss Ohtani. The padres are going to ask for the moon to start, of course. They’d be poorly run if they didn’t. That’s what negotiations are. 
 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The bottom line is a guy who already under contract with another team for next year and really isn't even the best hitter or player available was never going to be Plan A this offseason. I'm not saying they're forever out on Soto, but it never made sense that suddenly this offseason became about him. It's an exciting rumor in the sense that the Cubs seem have their  priorities straight: pay the better and more obviously available player rather than hope another great one under contract becomes available, is traded to Cubs, and is then willing to extend with Cubs

 

 

 

My concern is not the Plan A vs Plan B but that Rogers made it seem (at least per Taylor) was that Soto wasn't Plan anything. Soto wasn't going to be dealt before Ohtani, but it'd likely be better for the Cubs to be engaging here the entire time instead of coming in hot if they miss Ohtani. I'm all for Ohtani as the first option (all in on it), but hearing the Cubs may not be interested on the Soto front at all (if, again, Taylor's interpretation is correct) would not be the best thing to hear coming from the Cubs, either.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Makes sense to me. Why would he be while under contract with another team chasing a WS, not clearly available, and probably leaning towards testing FA next year? It's not as if Rogers writing this changes the past, we know the Cubs have at least talked to the Padres, but it seems obvious that the priority should be and has been the better and for sure available player is all

 

 

Not clearly available? Soto available for trade is the worst kept secret in baseball. He is clearly available. SD main focus this off season is dumping salaries not winning a WS. Thanks also pretty obvious. 

[Bertz]

26 minutes ago, username said:

Wait... Jesse Rogers somehow became connected?  Are we sure about this?  I always viewed him as a guy you could trust to give you the starting lineup for a game and not much else.  Until someone else proclaims that the Cubs are out on Soto, I'd trust him saying that as much as I'd trust some random kid on the street's sources.  

He was first to get wind of the Darvish trade among many many other things over the last few years.  He is an idiot but he is very well connected to Jed.

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Makes sense to me. Why would he be while under contract with another team chasing a WS, not clearly available, and probably leaning towards testing FA next year? It's not as if Rogers writing this changes the past, we know the Cubs have at least talked to the Padres, but it seems obvious that the priority should be and has been the better and for sure available player is all

 

 

It's high time for the Cubs to be in on good players regardless of their control. Soto is under control for one year, but again, this is reflective in the cost of acquisition as well. I think the Cubs should be interested in other players who have one year of control as well. I would also argue Juan Soto is clearly available. The only people saying he's not has basically been San Diego (and likely to retain control). Most in the industry are firmly on the "he'll be traded" camp.

 And do we know we have at least talked to the Padres? Levine and Cermani said we were interested, but Rogers seems to have a different opinion. If anything, Rogers is pretty connected to the Cubs, while Cermani has broken a trade or two, and Levine, who has fallen off over the last decade, likely lag behind in terms of "current connections". Regardless a lot of this is up for interpretation, and none of it is fact. So if the Cubs have engaged with the Padres on Soto, I'd be happy. I think the Cubs are in a situation where they need to be more aggressive in acquiring the top talents available. If the Cubs are not involved in Soto, in the way that Brett Taylor interpreted Rogers words, then I would be concerned to a degree on their offseason plans. That doesn't mean I think the offseason is dead, but that perhaps the Cubs won't be acquiring the type of player I believe they should be targeting. I'm not in any way suggesting the Cubs must sell the farm for a single year of Juan Soto, but it's the type of a trade I firmly believe the Cubs should be very much around.

I'm happy the Cubs seemingly are doing the right things to attempt to acquire Shohei Ohtani. That's the right thing to do. But sometimes you do everything you can (realistically) and in the end and have it not work out. They should be prepared for that, and I think part of that is making sure you're involved in Juan Soto as well.

Edited December 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, username said:

More likely, as with all guys like this, Jesse is/was connected to someone in the broader front office rather than the head honcho.  Who knows if that source is still a Cubs employee after some offseason changes.  

But I do appreciate your response.  I didn't realize he had graduated from "here's who is playing today" to actually knowing some behind the scenes stuff.  He always struck me as a HUGE blowhard.  

He's a blowhard. But he's been on it since the Epstein regime took over. He was, for example, all over Jason Heyward too. In terms of connections, he's probably been the most consistently connected Cub beat reporter since like, 2013. I also feel like he can be a bit of a mouthpiece for the team, as well (likely why he's connected), and that, in turn, makes him a blowhard.

Edited December 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, username said:

More likely, as with all guys like this, Jesse is/was connected to someone in the broader front office rather than the head honcho.  Who knows if that source is still a Cubs employee after some offseason changes.  

No.  It's Jed.  You don't want it to be true because what Jesse's saying isn't great but it's Jed.  Like before Jed got the big chair this was an annual thing between them:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28607798/jed-hoyer-qa-where-cubs-stand-kris-bryant-more

Quote

Every year, as he packs his car with his luggage and his dog, Chicago Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer picks up the phone for some football and Major League Baseball talk. ESPN found him near Tulsa, Oklahoma, on the way to Mesa, Arizona, where the Cubs train. His beloved New England Patriots aren't in the Super Bowl this season, but that doesn't stop Hoyer from making a prediction on the game and talking some baseball. But we start with a question he's been wondering about as well.

 

[ToolDRT]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

No.  It's Jed.  You don't want it to be true because what Jesse's saying isn't great but it's Jed.  Like before Jed got the big chair this was an annual thing between them:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28607798/jed-hoyer-qa-where-cubs-stand-kris-bryant-more

 

So his slight pessimism on Ohtani should be taken seriously, right? I mean, he’d be the one to know.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, ToolDRT said:

So his slight pessimism on Ohtani should be taken seriously, right? I mean, he’d be the one to know.

I'd say his slight pessimism should be considered more than other's. But it really, to me, feels like even Rogers right now is likely being left out in the lurch (thus the hemming of probably and felt, in the tweet). I think if the Cubs are super serious here, they're not even telling Rogers.

[ToolDRT]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'd say his slight pessimism should be considered more than other's. But it really, to me, feels like even Rogers right now is likely being left out in the lurch (thus the hemming of probably and felt, in the tweet). I think if the Cubs are super serious here, they're not even telling Rogers.

Let’s hope. The last two days have left me genuinely pessimistic about the direction of this offseason. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, ToolDRT said:

Let’s hope. The last two days have left me genuinely pessimistic about the direction of this offseason. 

I think it's likely. The Cubs basically pulled the wool over everyone's eyes on Counsell. Did the same with Seiya Suzuki. I loved Seiya that offseason and I had gotten pretty pessimistic that the Cubs weren't in at all (with how little they were even mentioned) only to be incredibly shocked to see them having locked him up. When the Cubs move quietly, they move quietly. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Having a foot out of the door on Ohtani because a 2025 FA might become available via trade is a great way to walk out of the offseason with neither.

There is no meaningful sentiment of folks here wavering on pursuing Ohtani because Soto is a trade target.  

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Unfortunately that doesn't make players under contract more available. That Cubdom's whole angle on Juan Soto is "we can get this great player for cheap because payroll issues and one year" kinda hints at what the spirit of the interest even is: most about always getting an obvious bargain rather than a more pure baseball oriented pursuit. Bargains are great but players are going to notice if the Cubs' version of big market is always looking for even more of a bargain than what's already artificially available for teams

Yes we know they talked to the Padres! That was the rumor a month ago. If we can extend the Rogers room from not in to never talked because Brett says so then surely the same can be done the other way for reported interest

Having a foot out of the door on Ohtani because a 2025 FA might become available via trade is a great way to walk out of the offseason with neither. Playing leverage games with one during their FA and hoping to "steal" the other just like...that's not the kind of "in" I want the Cubs to be

I don't think anyone here wants Juan Soto because they can "get a great player for cheap", and I certainly don't want that. I want the Cubs to get great players and Juan Soto is one. I would also very much advocate the Cubs to engage Juan Soto in legitimate extension talks during the season, and after the season if he is dead set on making his way to the free agent market in any event the Cubs acquire him. This isn't a case of "hey, it'd be great to get a good player for less" but "this great player is available and I think the Cubs should be acquiring those types". 

I also don't think the Cubs would have "one foot out" of the Shohei Ohtani door by also working on secondary avenues to acquire high impact players. I would not expect the Ohtani camp being offended if the Cubs were, simultaneously engaged with the Padres (a team who almost assuredly won't sell Soto until Ohtani makes a decision) nor would I expect the Cubs should be just sitting there and ho-humming until Ohtani makes a choice.

Edited December 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bobson Dugnutt]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m more concerned with how pursuing both at the same time with only one fully available leaves them more exposed to ending  up with neither. The either/or thing is dead IMO: sign Ohtani and Soto is still available.

Heck with enough patience on Soto the imagined contract maybe goes down $100 million. One thing we can count on is that no star or superatar hitting FA is Actually as exciting and good as when they were younger and cheaper 

I tend to think the opposite is true. If Ohtani chooses LAD or TOR, which is highly possible, I’d hate to see that tank the entire offseason for the Cubs because they had such tunnel vision on one player while the rest of the league made headway on all the other available options. I love that the Cubs are leaving no stone unturned and have been mentioned in connection with quite literally every FA and every possible trade option. That doesn’t mean that Ohtani isn’t option #1 by 100 country miles.

 

Back in the Theo/Jed days it often came up that the two were able to divide and conquer. One would take the lead on FA/trade pursuit A, the other would handle FA/trade pursuit B. I’m sure that’s still in play with the Hoyer/Hawkins regime.

[Cuzi]

This news is less painful if you just took a moment to understand the mindset of the PoBO and realize this team is not near built enough for 1 player to be a difference maker for a single season.

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

This news is less painful if you just took a moment to understand the mindset of the PoBO and realize this team is not near built enough for 1 player to be a difference maker for a single season.

This "one player away" thing is so pervasive considering how dumb it is

- First off, I'm not sure it's even true on the merits?  A team that projects in the low 80's for wins adding a player worth 5+ by himself is just about the textbook for maximizing impact on the win curve

- There's no indication Jed would add Soto and then just turn his phone off til March

- Even if we assume Soto will not sign an extension, you get a leg up on resigning him.  If he signs elsewhere, you have $35M that was earmarked for Soto free to use on others (Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, etc.)

[Cuzi]

Do I think he would turn his phone off? No. But a guy that has said multiple times that he will always value long term over short term isn't going to turn around and trade good prospects for a guy on a 1 year deal thats going to get $30M+ in arbitration.

Soto would be a final move, not a first move, and the Cubs havent made any yet.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do I think he would turn his phone off? No. But a guy that has said multiple times that he will always value long term over short term isn't going to turn around and trade good prospects for a guy on a 1 year deal thats going to get $30M+ in arbitration.

Soto would be a final move, not a first move, and the Cubs havent made any yet.

I know you know how wrong this is.  If you have a finite budget and you're looking at a couple players that on their own would eat up ~50% of it, you're obviously going to focus on resolving things with them first before moving onto others.  If options get scarce somewhere else you want to improve (e.g. 1B) you might move that up, but outside of market context you obviously start big and work small.

[Cuzi]

If I'm wrong then why are you so upset that you are wrong about the Cubs lack of interest in Soto?

You think this team is projected to win 80 games. This team has Madrigal at 3rd, Wisdom at 1B, Tauchman in CF, Canario at DH, and Taillon as its #2 pitcher. There is no way this team is projected to win 80 games.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If I'm wrong then why are you so upset that you are wrong about the Cubs lack of interest in Soto?

You think this team is projected to win 80 games. This team has Madrigal at 3rd, Wisdom at 1B, Tauchman in CF, Canario at DH, and Taillon as its #2 pitcher. There is no way this team is projected to win 80 games.

If the reason Jed isn't interested in Soto, why would he be interested in Ohtani?  You don't give out the largest contract in North American sports history if you don't have championship aspirations in year 1

Fangraphs has the team, as presently constructed, with a .489 (winning percentage 79 game pace).  ZiPS likes several Cubs (most notably Swanson) more than Steamer, so it'll likely add a win or three after it's incorporated.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

[CubinNY]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This "one player away" thing is so pervasive considering how dumb it is

- First off, I'm not sure it's even true on the merits?  A team that projects in the low 80's for wins adding a player worth 5+ by himself is just about the textbook for maximizing impact on the win curve

- There's no indication Jed would add Soto and then just turn his phone off til March

- Even if we assume Soto will not sign an extension, you get a leg up on resigning him.  If he signs elsewhere, you have $35M that was earmarked for Soto free to use on others (Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, etc.)

No MLB team is one player away from winning. Baseball, like soccer, and unlike basketball is a weak-link sport. You can't win with a star or two and scrubs. The best teams are the ones with the most depth. The Cubs and most other teams know that. 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes at the start of the offseason most every competitor has a number of holes to fill, that's how offseasons work when a big chunk of the player pool is no longer attached to a team.  The Dodgers rotation at the moment needs multiple guys to come back from TJS real strong real fast, they have no DH and are apparently betting real heavily on Heyward being a starting caliber corner OF. The Padres rotation is Musgrove(coming off shoulder injury), Darvish, and a pile of sorrow.  Last year's division winners the Brewers have Jake Bauers and Tyrone Taylor as their 1B/DH and Adrian Houser as their 3rd best SP.  

At the root of this anti-logic is the sentiment that the worst thing you could possibly do is spend resources a year too early, I get it but it just isn't a significant risk.  The Cubs were garden-variety variance from a playoff berth, will either have leg up in keeping Soto or recoup some cost through a pick, and he is a very snug roster fit.  Waiting until you have all the other pieces in place before considering a star player(and I mean a real star level impact, not Pete Alonso/Jordan Montgomery level guys) who isn't a perfect contract fit is a great way to run into a situation where you don't have the ability to acquire one because they aren't available or not in a spot where you need to improve.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If the reason Jed isn't interested in Soto, why would he be interested in Ohtani?  You don't give out the largest contract in North American sports history if you don't have championship aspirations in year 1

Fangraphs has the team, as presently constructed, with a .489 (winning percentage 79 game pace).  ZiPS likes several Cubs (most notably Swanson) more than Steamer, so it'll likely add a win or three after it's incorporated.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

ZiPs hasn't even released its completed projections for all 30 teams, so that number most certainly does not represent the roster as currently constructed.

And if you have to ask what the difference is in pursuit of a FA on a 10+ year deal than a player in trade on a 1 year deal then there's really no use in continuing the conversation.

[David]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

ZiPs hasn't even released its completed projections for all 30 teams, so that number most certainly does not represent the roster as currently constructed.

And if you have to ask what the difference is in pursuit of a FA on a 10+ year deal than a player in trade on a 1 year deal then there's really no use in continuing the conversation.

Those projections are based on Steamer and he acknowledged that zips hasn't released yet and will likely project them to be better.

[17 Seconds]

also the revenue thing. I could see the Ricketts being willing to pay Ohtani but not Soto 

Edited December 1, 2023 by 17 Seconds