9/23 - Rockies (Flexen) vs Cubs (Stroman): 1:20pm, Marquee

[UMFan83]

Had a feeling there’d be another chapter in this saga

[Derwood]

Elly K'd!

[Derwood]

PIRATES WIN!

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, Derwood said:

PIRATES WIN!

Yahoo!

[UMFan83]

lol Reds lose. If that was the Cubs I’d be devastated. 

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

lol Reds lose. If that was the Cubs I’d be devastated. 

9-0, blow lead, then fake rally. Classic Cubs loss (for the Reds)

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

lol Reds lose. If that was the Cubs I’d be devastated. 

I was just going to say... Can you even imagine?

[Irrelevant Dude]

So win tomorrow, hope for a Miami loss and an Arizona split. Going into the final 6 games with a 2 game cushion (effectively 1 game with the tiebreaker) and also a chance to beat out Arizona if somehow Miami goes on a winning streak.  That would be a good position to be in.

[abuck1220]

the 13 inning loss in AZ is nothing compared to that loss by the reds my goodness. 

[UMFan83]

Man I’d feel so good about the Cubs right now if the Brewers finished off that game. At least we’ve brought Arizona back into the mix so it’s 3 teams playing for 2 spots separated by 2 games. 
 

We deserve some good karma for being the odd man out in the “4 teams playing for 3 NLDS spots” derby in 2018

[UMFan83]

I saw the Cubs at around 63% playoff odds before the Marlins win. They dropped 5% due to that. Here is FG playoff odds after tonight:

Arizona - 81.9%

Cubs - 58.1%

Miami - 51.9%

Cincinnati - 7.1%

San Diego - 0.6%

San Francisco - 0.5%
 

SD game just ended and they lost so they might drop and the Cubs might get an extra percentage point or two. 

[Stratos]

Assad has been huge in the 2nd half.  He really helps out the pen.

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I saw the Cubs at around 63% playoff odds before the Marlins win. They dropped 5% due to that. Here is FG playoff odds after tonight:

Arizona - 81.9%

Cubs - 58.1%

Miami - 51.9%

Cincinnati - 7.1%

San Diego - 0.6%

San Francisco - 0.5%
 

SD game just ended and they lost so they might drop and the Cubs might get an extra percentage point or two. 

Miami has an easy schedule rest of the way (Mets, Pirates).  Ours is brutal (Braves, Brewers).  Dbacks get WSox and Astros.  Cubs need a sweep tomorrow badly.  Pretty sure we'd lose any tiebreakers.

[soccer10k]

30 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I saw the Cubs at around 63% playoff odds before the Marlins win. They dropped 5% due to that. Here is FG playoff odds after tonight:

Arizona - 81.9%

Cubs - 58.1%

Miami - 51.9%

Cincinnati - 7.1%

San Diego - 0.6%

San Francisco - 0.5%
 

SD game just ended and they lost so they might drop and the Cubs might get an extra percentage point or two. 

I understand why but I still think it's funny that the DBacks, Cubs and Marlins are all more likely than not to make the playoffs yet one won't. It was the opposite a week or so ago where the DBacks, Marlins, Reds and Giants were all less than 50% to make the playoffs but one of them will make it.

[Brian707]

Kudos to Ross for lighting a fire under the pirates ass

East coast weather going to be dicy today.  I wonder if they will just make tomorrow a double header? Az-NYY

Edited September 24, 2023 by Brian707

[Derwood]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Miami has an easy schedule rest of the way (Mets, Pirates).  Ours is brutal (Braves, Brewers).  Dbacks get WSox and Astros.  Cubs need a sweep tomorrow badly.  Pretty sure we'd lose any tiebreakers.

The Pirates aren't terrible. They're a .500 team against everyone but the Cubs.

[chibears55]

57 minutes ago, Derwood said:

The Pirates aren't terrible. They're a .500 team against everyone but the Cubs.

If you take away the head to head matchups between the Cubs and Pirates,  they have the same record at 71-71 versus everyone else.

[UMFan83]

32 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

If you take away the head to head matchups between the Cubs and Pirates,  they have the same record at 71-71 versus everyone else.

That’s a cool factoid but you can’t ignore that they went 3-10 against a 84ish win team. You’re right they aren’t a bad team they are probably slightly below average with a -93 RD for the season. Much better than I expected them to be this season though

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Derwood said:

The Pirates aren't terrible. They're a .500 team against everyone but the Cubs.

They have a -95 run differential.  That's bad.

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, chibears55 said:

If you take away the head to head matchups between the Cubs and Pirates,  they have the same record at 71-71 versus everyone else.

Well hopefully they play well vs the Marlins.

[UMFan83]

22 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They have a -95 run differential.  That's bad.

54 of that RD alone was to the Cubs.  But again, you can't just remove those games and consider how good they are in the other games.  They played those games against the Cubs and the Cubs walloped them a whole bunch and that factors into their evaluation as a whole, just as the 13 games played against the Pirates does for the Cubs.

[Stratos]

On 9/25/2023 at 12:08 AM, UMFan83 said:

54 of that RD alone was to the Cubs.  But again, you can't just remove those games and consider how good they are in the other games.  They played those games against the Cubs and the Cubs walloped them a whole bunch and that factors into their evaluation as a whole, just as the 13 games played against the Pirates does for the Cubs.

The games all count.  We could do this all day and cherrypick for any team.

[Tim]

On 9/24/2023 at 10:43 PM, Stratos said:

They have a -95 run differential.  That's bad.

Does that mean that the Marlins and their -50+ run differential are bad, too?

Apparently we have nothing to worry about!

[Stratos]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:05 PM, Tim said:

Does that mean that the Marlins and their -50+ run differential are bad, too?

Apparently we have nothing to worry about!

Well the Marlins are about half as bad 🙂