2023 AFL

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Rosters haven’t dropped but it appears Alexander Canario is headed there: 

https://twitter.com/tommybirch/status/1696894132357099848?s=46&t=W37ISIrjUHdGm-Y3K3j6Aw

 

[Jason Ross]

Based on the recent past, I expect the Cubs to prioritize:

1.  Players who have missed time with injury (Canario) 

2. Hitters they believe are going to be MLB ready sometime next season  (Shaw maybe McGeary?)

3. College hitters who were drafted late (Kalmer/Long?) who they want to see what they have

 

Last year we saw players like Davis, Mervis and Murray get the call to AFL, and I think we'll see similar.  I doubt any of the fun arms see any AFL action, the Cubs bubble wrap their pitchers like no other.

Edited August 30, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CubinNY]

Jake Slaughter? He's had a terrific year at the plate. 

[mul21]

You saying things like this when there's clearly 2-3 guys better than him regardless of whatever made up criteria you're working off of is why people get annoyed with you.

[Tim]

Just a few methods of ranking pitchers based on performance and Gallardo's rank in the system amongst pitchers with 50+ IP:

• K-BB%:  15th
• K%: 30th
• BB%: 4th
• HR/9: 17th
• FIP: 10th
• ERA: 27th

He's durable, has been young for his level (which you no longer seem to care about depending on the argument), has good control, and has thrown harder the past couple years. He also doesn't get much swing and miss, probably because his breaking stuff isn't great, didn't keep the ball in the yard this year, and his actual results have not been great as a result of all that.

It's a good profile to have in the system, but that's nothing close to a #1 pitcher unless you foresee a revolution in his off speed pitches on the horizon.

[Jason Ross]

I am not a Richard Gallardo fan.  I think upside, you're looking at up/down organizational depth.  With some luck, maybe you get a decent Adrian Simpson run (not saying he's Adrian Simpson-esque in how he goes about it) or something in there for a 2nd division team.  None of that would be horrendous or awful when it comes to an outcome; that's useful, but I don't see an MLB arm with staying power.  The velocity jump is somewhat interesting, but nothing he throws really looks like anything more than a 40 or a 45 grade pitch to me.  So you've got a lot of average-replacement level pitches with a 50 or maybe a 55 level command.  Guys like this generally do well in the lower levels where strike-throwing is more important.  As they move up to better competition, swing and miss and chase becomes necessary and I just don't see it with Gallardo.  

I hope he surprises me and there's something more.  But in terms of "guys I like" he probably behind a good handful of names, and a few of those names are players who have had statistically worse seasons, but have upside pitch mixes that could come together.  To each their own in the end; anyone who is a Gallardo fan isn't entirely alone on an island, but he's not someone I have high hopes for myself.

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Just going to point out...

Gallardo SwStr% 2022: 9% (8.6%)

Gallardo SwStr% 2023: 12% (12.3%)

This while moving up to full time at High A and then AA...I charted probably a dozen starts this year with a 30+% CSW too....

 

 

Totally a fair point!   I honestly think the issues with Gallardo go past the data that we have and goes to things like his ceiling with his pitch mix.  The best thing about Gallardo is that for a 22 year old (he turns 22 in just a few days), he's pretty polished.  His command is better than that of an A+ pitcher and it's probably better than most AA pitchers.  I also think his level of polish works against him because I think there's a limited amount of growth between here and what I expect him to be able to achieve.  His velocity has seen some gains, but I haven't seen anything to suggest the older reports of a repertoire of 45/50-grade pitches has really changed much (though at seasons end and some re-scouting may change that and it'd be fair to say that's on the table; guys like Zumach and Hess and Smith have access to scouting information and may report that his pitches have improved in run/spin/shape, etc which would clearly change a pitches grade).  I think a lot of the issues Killian has had getting over the hump will be the same type of issues Gallardo (Luis Devers is another name in this group) will face; they're able to command middling stuff past MiLB hitters, but they can't out command MLB hitters with that same middling stuff.  

 

I'd rather players have good numbers than not, and this isn't to dissuade you from being a Gallardo guy, either, just explaining where I'd put him and why.  I'll be more than happy to look back on this post in 2 years and laugh at my stupidity if he proves me wrong as I'd rather be wrong about a prospect I doubt than be right (I'll always root against my opinions if it helps the Cubs).  

Edited August 31, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I'm actually glad you brought up Devers. His 2022 is a *terrific* example of fans uncritically scouting the low minors stat line in the post-pandemic meta only to come up empty. Guy's not even a prospect outside of the sense that seemingly everyone especially pitchers is a prospect now

By fans, I assume you mean the Cubs organization. 

[Jason Ross]

I don't hate Luis Devers, but he falls in a similar category as someone who I think has one good pitch (his changeup) but outside of that has a host of 45/50 pitches with 50 command who basically out-commanded hitters at lower levels.  This year he got hurt and it just hasn't worked for him since then.  I'm on the fence about him, as I still think there's an outside chance his one good pitch+command could maybe get you a bottom of the rotation arm, but think he's probably in that same group of "up/down org" guys if he can get right, but if he's never going to get healthy enough than it just won't happen.  I'll be happy if he can find it again, wouldn't be shocked if he can't (that's pitchers for ya).  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

39 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

My criticism of Devers last year is that he's a 90-92 RH without any breaking stuff in an age where it's standard for an elite SP to have two breaking balls. This likely isn't due to a lack of exposure to resources and technology since he's been in the org since 2017, and it's not a youth thing at 22-23 the past two years. He and Gallardo aren't even on the same planet as far as talent is concerned, which covers pretty much all of why his big breakout came in the low minors a year older than Gallardo played 2023

 

Yeah but stuff's the easiest part about a pitcher to improve these days, particularly a durable strike thrower with command and control like Devers.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:57 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

Based on the recent past, I expect the Cubs to prioritize:

1.  Players who have missed time with injury (Canario) 

2. Hitters they believe are going to be MLB ready sometime next season  (Shaw maybe McGeary?)

3. College hitters who were drafted late (Kalmer/Long?) who they want to see what they have

 

Last year we saw players like Davis, Mervis and Murray get the call to AFL, and I think we'll see similar.  I doubt any of the fun arms see any AFL action, the Cubs bubble wrap their pitchers like no other.

I'd add one more category: Likely or fringe Rule-5 guys who get one more chance (such as: Brendon Little, Bailey Horn, Kohl Franklin, Porter Hodge, Riley Thompson, Pablo Aliendo, Luis Vazquez, Cole Roederer)

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I'd add one more category: Likely or fringe Rule-5 guys who get one more chance (such as: Brendon Little, Bailey Horn, Kohl Franklin, Porter Hodge, Riley Thompson, Pablo Aliendo, Luis Vazquez, Cole Roederer)

I actually think the Cubs will avoid having those players play more.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I think they'll try to hide some of these guys a bit more.  A strong AFL performance may convince a team to snag them up, versus being more likely to sneak them through the draft.

[CubinNY]

I definitely would like to see Luis Vazquez in the AFL especially if there is good pitching this year. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

41 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I definitely would like to see Luis Vazquez in the AFL especially if there is good pitching this year. 

There rarely is good pitching in the AFL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I mean that’s fair if you want to buy Devers is actually a control and command guy based off  his age 22 line in Low A and High A during his 5-6th pro season, but how much longer do you plan on holding your breath?

 

 

I'm not holding my breath, that's what I was getting at by quoting you and replacing the name with Devers.  If I look at Devers 2022 and Gallardo 2023, I'm not sure I see a meaningful enough difference in their profiles or performance to see this chasm that you're describing between Devers being just-a-guy(justifiable) and Gallardo being the best and/or highest upside SP in the system(..less justifiable)

[Tim]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Welp, take off the blinders and note that the older one with less velo and no breaking ball threw most of his innings in A ball some 5-6 years into being with the org. We’ll never what a 22 YO Gallardo might do seeing A ball hitters, just that throwing pretty well against them didn’t do a whole lot for Devers’ chances as a SP let alone ceiling

We'll never know what a 20-year old BJ Murray would have done against AA pitching, either. But you still seem to prefer him over Caissie.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Welp, take off the blinders and note that the older one with less velo and no breaking ball threw most of his innings in A ball some 5-6 years into being with the org. We’ll never what a 22 YO Gallardo might do seeing low minors hitters, do know that throwing pretty well against them hasn’t done a whole lot for Devers’ chances as a SP let alone ceiling 

One of these is Devers in A+ at age 22 in 2022 and the other is Gallardo in A+ at age 21 in 2023

• 66.1 IP, 5.0 IP/GS, 8.55 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 18.2 K-BB%, 3.93 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 49.2 GB%
• 51.1 IP, 5.0 IP/GS, 8.24 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 17.9% K-BB%, 1.05 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, 51.9% GB%

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

So 21 YO Gallardo’s better than 22 YO Devers at everything but xFIP at the same level, throws harder, keeps gaining velo, has a variety of curves while the latter struggles to develop anything, moved out of the level already….What is Similar about the Profiles here? 

I typoed the IP/GS, but the line that is 'better at everything but xFIP' is Devers.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Two more more big name Cubs prospects headed to the AFL:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Full list of Cubs going to the AFL:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Christian Franklin has replaced Alexander Canario in the AFL. I’m assuming and hoping the Cubs decided to give Canario a rest after playing winter ball last offseason and then going through a grueling rehab.

https://twitter.com/ivyfutures/status/1708917567727784122?s=46&t=W37ISIrjUHdGm-Y3K3j6Aw

The Mesa Solar Sox season gets underway this evening.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kevin Alcántara is batting third and playing right for Mesa. There are no other Cubs in the starting lineup.

[mul21]

19 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Christian Franklin has replaced Alexander Canario in the AFL. I’m assuming and hoping the Cubs decided to give Canario a rest after playing winter ball last offseason and then going through a grueling rehab.

https://twitter.com/ivyfutures/status/1708917567727784122?s=46&t=W37ISIrjUHdGm-Y3K3j6Aw

The Mesa Solar Sox season gets underway this evening.

I'm sure you probably saw this already as close as you follow things but Canario is playing in the Dominican Winter League apparently with the Cubs approval, so he must be feeling okay.  I don't mind him getting a bunch of plate appearances there against a decently high level of competition.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10/2 box score:

RF K. Alcántara 1/4, 2 RBI, BB, K, SB (1)
PR-2B J. Triantos 0/2, RBI, K, E (1, fielding)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

10/3 box score:

2B J. Triantos 3/4, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB (1)
RF K. Alcántara 0/6, 3 K

Nick Hull is the starting pitcher for Mesa today.