Article: September Call Ups: Bring Me Canario

[Hairyducked Idiot]

51 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

No one's saying that OPSing .900 in AAA means MLB success ya goober, you tried parlaying that idea into the claim that OPSing .900+ is a "barely above average AAA hitter", which you've subsequently proven incorrect yourself with your hand-derived (and still overstated since *leagues* consistently perform better at home due to non-park related factors) park factor and statement of the league's average OPS.

The most recent actual park factor for Iowa that I can find was published in 2022 by baseball america and had Iowa at 111 for generic run production and 119 for home runs. So if anything, I'm being generous by merely calling it 6%. 

It's hard to be more right than I am on this one.  At the end of the day, all you have is generic sputtering fake outrage and no facts.

[Tim]

9 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

My issue remains that the swing and the miss is just massive.  The ISO is fun, the power is fun, the OPS/wRC+ is good, but none of these correlate to MLB success like contact ability (which remains the best indicator of next level success).  There was a really cool study done recently (tweet embedded below) that that talks about bat speed, bat to ball, and swing decisions and how they relate to dealing with better and better stuff.  

As you can see from the chart, bat to ball matters more and more when we get to a point of elite stuff.  Canario, even over his strong run, has a whopping 33.8% K%.  His bat to ball skills right now, aren't there.  Is it rust from the injury?  Is it a step backwards in development?  I don't have an answer to either question, but I do know that he's probably going to struggle until that goes back to what we saw in 2022 (if it ever does).  

100 Stuff+ is an average MLB pitcher (by definition). Facing the majority of pitchers in MLB, bat speed is more than twice as important as bat to ball. By the time that you reach 200 stuff+ where bat to ball is nearly as important, you're talking about just a handful of pitchers in MLB.

Don't get me wrong. Canario still has a lot of development to do. But that elite bat speed is a much more important factor for success than the swing and miss.

[Tim]

Today's stats definitely count for Canario. 4/5, 2 2B, 2 HR

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Tim said:

Today's stats definitely count for Canario. 4/5, 2 2B, 2 HR

Yes but he wasn't raking immediately following his return from 2 surgeries,  so he's bad

[muntjack]

31 minutes ago, Tim said:

Today's stats definitely count for Canario. 4/5, 2 2B, 2 HR

In that run environment,  that's akin to going 1-5 with a single and 3Ks

Edited August 25, 2023 by muntjack

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Do Wisdom Down/Canario Up

Edited August 25, 2023 by itisallpartoftheplan

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, Tim said:

100 Stuff+ is an average MLB pitcher (by definition). Facing the majority of pitchers in MLB, bat speed is more than twice as important as bat to ball. By the time that you reach 200 stuff+ where bat to ball is nearly as important, you're talking about just a handful of pitchers in MLB.

Don't get me wrong. Canario still has a lot of development to do. But that elite bat speed is a much more important factor for success than the swing and miss.

Right.  But if the debate is to bring Canario up to be someone who comes off the bench, we know that BP arms stuff+ goes up especially as the game goes along and you're in tight situations you'll be facing better and better stuff.  Realistically, how many starts is Alexander Canario going to get over Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the OF?  Is he going to jump Christopher Morel/Patrick Wisdom as well at DH?  The premise of a lot of this is that he'd be a power bat on the bench.  His swing and miss is already atrocious in AAA, even when he's playing well.  Add in that bat to ball skills matter more and more when we look at stuff increasing and I just don'tthink there's a good scenario for Canario, personally, to see him succeed.  Not yet, anyways.  None of this is to suggest he's an incapable prospect, but his swing and miss right now is such a red flag that I cannot see much of a reason to think he's going to be anything productive as a guy you'd trust in those kinds of situations off the bench.  The overall point isn't that bat to ball is the end all be all, but I think Canario's bat to ball right now is so poor that his bat speed wouldn't make up for the situations he'd be asked to hit in.  

 

If Canario's swing decisions and contact rate from last year were translating, even in his strong run as of today, I'd sing a different tune.  And I don't think it's impossible to see Canario get back to that down the road.  But as of now, I have little confidence that he'd come up and be anything more than a strikeout machine printing K's.  There's some real rust there and even when he's hitting for power, he's striking out.  He's got 23 strikeouts over his last 61 PA's and the last time he didn't strike out at least once in a game was August 3rd, while striking out at least twice in half of those games.

Edited August 25, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Tim]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Right.  But if the debate is to bring Canario up to be someone who comes off the bench, we know that BP arms stuff+ goes up especially as the game goes along and you're in tight situations you'll be facing better and better stuff.  Realistically, how many starts is Alexander Canario going to get over Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the OF?  Is he going to jump Christopher Morel/Patrick Wisdom as well at DH?  The premise of a lot of this is that he'd be a power bat on the bench.  His swing and miss is already atrocious in AAA, even when he's playing well.  Add in that bat to ball skills matter more and more when we look at stuff increasing and I just don'tthink there's a good scenario for Canario, personally, to see him succeed.  Not yet, anyways.  None of this is to suggest he's an incapable prospect, but his swing and miss right now is such a red flag that I cannot see much of a reason to think he's going to be anything productive as a guy you'd trust in those kinds of situations off the bench.  The overall point isn't that bat to ball is the end all be all, but I think Canario's bat to ball right now is so poor that his bat speed wouldn't make up for the situations he'd be asked to hit in.  

 

If Canario's swing decisions and contact rate from last year were translating, even in his strong run as of today, I'd sing a different tune.  And I don't think it's impossible to see Canario get back to that down the road.  But as of now, I have little confidence that he'd come up and be anything more than a strikeout machine printing K's.  There's some real rust there and even when he's hitting for power, he's striking out.  He's got 23 strikeouts over his last 61 PA's and the last time he didn't strike out at least once in a game was August 3rd, while striking out at least twice in half of those games.

Don't get me wrong - I am not in favor of bringing him up right now unless he keeps hitting like yesterday. I'm just really excited about him getting back to what he was last year and what that can mean for the future.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Don't get me wrong - I am not in favor of bringing him up right now unless he keeps hitting like yesterday. I'm just really excited about him getting back to what he was last year and what that can mean for the future.

Of, for sure.  That's my goal here as well.  Him making better swing choices and contact is only good; he'll be more valuable via trade, or he'll be a better bet at the MLB level.  

[Brandon Glick]

16 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

What does being a finished product have to do with it?  We're talking about calling him up for a roster spot right now, not his prospect status.

All the games count. The games before the last 21 were also official minor league baseball games that count on his record.  There's no reason to pick out his last 21 games other than to make him look better, it's motivated reasoning.

What more do I want him to do? Not be 7th on his AAA team in OPS (min. 100 PAs).  

I know we've already had the "context" discourse so I won't re-open that rabbit hole, but again, the dude is coming off two literal career-threatening injuries at the same time. The fact he isn't showing MORE rust and problems with his results is a miracle. 

The goal with a roster move this late in the year is just to catch a guy on a heater. You're not going to add anyone at this point that's legitimately going to change the dynamic of a team. If Canario is on one of his patented home run binges for the new few weeks, better for that to happen in Chicago than Iowa, no?

And if he struggles in a 50 at-bat cup of coffee? Them's the brakes. He'll learn from it. This team should be good enough to withstand a cold stretch from a prospect occupying the 9th spot in the lineup anyways. The hope is that he helps around the margins, maybe adding an extra win or two to the ledger. No one's asking him to be a superstar yet. 

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

I know we've already had the "context" discourse so I won't re-open that rabbit hole, but again, the dude is coming off two literal career-threatening injuries at the same time. The fact he isn't showing MORE rust and problems with his results is a miracle. 

The goal with a roster move this late in the year is just to catch a guy on a heater. You're not going to add anyone at this point that's legitimately going to change the dynamic of a team. If Canario is on one of his patented home run binges for the new few weeks, better for that to happen in Chicago than Iowa, no?

And if he struggles in a 50 at-bat cup of coffee? Them's the brakes. He'll learn from it. This team should be good enough to withstand a cold stretch from a prospect occupying the 9th spot in the lineup anyways. The hope is that he helps around the margins, maybe adding an extra win or two to the ledger. No one's asking him to be a superstar yet. 

Mervis would be a better fit if that is the criteria 

[Billy62]

I am just excited about September. We are going to be in the hunt and we have some talented kids to take a look at. I think it will be plug and play to see what combination works best. As a fan, the prospect leaves me geeked. In my mind, I see one of the kids going on a Morel like tear or strikeout another 20. I know, I need to come back down to reality. Still, its ok to dream....right? Besides, I think I am in need of another jersey. Visa card has plenty of room and the Mrs. isn't really paying attention. 🙂

[Derek_Lee_Truther]

Welp Canario is coming up. For the exact reasons you said. Hopefully he doesn't suck.

[Brandon Glick]

3 hours ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

Welp Canario is coming up. For the exact reasons you said. Hopefully he doesn't suck.

Well said. Let's all hope he "doesn't suck". 

[NorthsideAvenger]

It would be something exciting if Canario is the Cubs version of Randy Arozarena. Not expecting that to happen but it would be fun. 

 

[Brandon Glick]

8 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

It would be something exciting if Canario is the Cubs version of Randy Arozarena. Not expecting that to happen but it would be fun. 

 

He certainly has the "set the world on fire" hot streak-ability in him to do it. I think expecting anything more than a nelson velasquez-type (for right now) is a dangerous game, but Canario is going to be the most electric prospect debut since Morel regardless.