Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-9-23

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Omaha, 7:05 pm

Tennessee at Biloxi, 6:35 pm

South Bend at Lake County, 11:05 am

Myrtle Beach vs. Fayetteville, 6:05 pm

DSL Cubs Blue at DSL Arizona Diamondbacks Black (completion of suspended Aug 7 game), 10:00 am

DSL Cubs Red vs DSL LA Dodgers Red (completion of suspended Aug 7 game) 10:00 am

ACL Cubs have the day off

Probable Starters:

South Bend: RHP Tyler Santana

[We Got The Whole 9]

Caissie's un-tacked numbers now 356/473/712

 

Future lineups with him, McGeary/Murray and PCA are fun to think about. 

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

53 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

McGeary’s got the same problems Caissie does IMO: too many GBs from a player who doesn’t play much defense is just not whatever I picture for The Future of Cubs 

Caissie has hit 1 less ground ball than BJ Murray in 2 less PA

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

3* and don’t just ignore 41 fewer flyballs

Oof, here I am doing napkin math and not scrolling down to the raw totals. 

 

Anyway, Caissie has 18 more line drives and 8 more home runs as well.  These are just not dramatically meaningful distinctions to think that a player with a standard deviation less offensive production(even before considering ARL) is somehow a better bet or that a difference in variance or measurement error is pass/fail for the player's future prospects.

[We Got The Whole 9]

33 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

McGeary’s got the same problems Caissie does IMO: too many GBs from a player who doesn’t play much defense is just not whatever I picture for The Future of Cubs 

He has lowered his GB rate at every stop and his current 43% is about the league average. This is just too rigid a line of thinking for me. FBs are nice, so are line drives. He and Caissie are 5th and 1st, respectively, in their league in LD%. Even if you take that rate with a grain of salt, it's still likely that they are LD machines. As they mature, I expect the Launch Angle will increase, and they will have above average FB rates, 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I wouldn’t chalk up 41 more of anything here for variance or measurement error 

The stuff about raw production and age are fair but LD rate is less stable than GB and FB. I’m still taking the more polished hitter here and trusting that process more. Murray’s not a standard issue 23 YO anyway having grown up playing much less competitive baseball than others his age 

When Caissie hits 26 more LD + HR and the distinction betwee LD v. FB is not absolute both from a measurement perspective and therefore the objective benefit of getting one v. the other, then yeah you're getting into like a 15 batted balls over 400+ PA, variance can absolutely play a part.  And again that assumes we put this enormous importance on hitting things classified as FB(or not classified as GB) to begin with, and ignore the actual outcomes or the other underlying stuff like Caissie putting up like 98th percentile EVs or w/e it is.  I'm begging you to not be a single issue voter on minor league batted ball %, you're way too smart to put this much weight on it.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Horton's start tonight is featured on mlb.com and will be free to watch for everybody. He faces off vs Jacob Misiorowski, so this should be a really fun watch.

 

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/watch-minor-league-baseball-games-for-free?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Edited August 9, 2023 by We Got The Whole 9

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t think I’m ignoring Caissie’s outcomes outright - he’s a Good Prospect or whatever so much as think the Cubs need to get picky and less happytobehere to become an elite org. I’m sure the Dodgers liked Alex Verdugo but what’s the ceiling of a COF/1B/DH glove with enough holes on offense to not entirely trust the bat developing all the way? The Cubs traded a Future 30 WAR MLer for Ian Stewart and no one cares. I just think its more worth risking Caissie’s Jay Buhner or DJ LeMahieu than holding on too long

Don't get me wrong, this isn't me crusading that Caissie is an uber-prospect, though relevant to the Mervis conversation the chasm for future seasons at 1B/DH combined with his breakout does tempt me more than in April.  The point I'm driving at is his batted ball numbers are like 7th on the list of things that might derail him or limit his ceiling, and constantly picking that out first and foremost steers us away from what is more meaningful in whether or not a player makes it.  For Caissie it's the K rate(or contact rate if you prefer)  first, second, third, and probably fourth, followed by his huge frame making him an almost certain 1B/DH even if he's not an embarrassment in RF now.  There are only so many Joey Gallos and betting on someone being another(especially seeming to lack Gallo's agility/athleticism that let him fake it at 3B and CF up to the MLB level) is not going to win very often.

[Tim]

We always wanted Adam Dunn. That may be Caissie all the way down to the red hair.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Wrong thread

Edited August 10, 2023 by Irrelevant Dude

[CubinNY]

Sneaky’s boy went yard again. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

I thought Horton was supposed to go tonight 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[sneakypower]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Sneaky’s boy went yard again. 

yep it didn't escape my notice that Yohn donged 😏

[Rcal10]

15 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I thought Horton was supposed to go tonight 

Did he get promoted to AAA. According to the Sun Times, he got promoted. We might see him this year. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Did he get promoted to AAA. According to the Sun Times, he got promoted. We might see him this year. 

 

I hadn't seen anything, but yeah that's what it says: https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2023/8/9/23826866/cubs-comeback-falls-short-despite-seiya-suzukis-breakout-vs-mets-ben-brown-ryan-jensen

 

Quote

One recent addition to the Triple-A roster is Cade Horton, the Cubs’ 2022 first-round draft pick. 

 

“We laid out the idea that we should try to add a breaking ball and add a changeup, and that probably puts the finishing touches on his development at least from a repertoire standpoint,” Breslow said of Horton’s rise through the farm system. “Didn’t imagine that it would happen so quickly. And that’s a testament to him, his aptitude, his willingness.”

It's just ambiguous enough that I'm not 100% certain it's a typo, but I'd still bet that's what it is.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I hadn't seen anything, but yeah that's what it says: https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2023/8/9/23826866/cubs-comeback-falls-short-despite-seiya-suzukis-breakout-vs-mets-ben-brown-ryan-jensen

 

It's just ambiguous enough that I'm not 100% certain it's a typo, but I'd still bet that's what it is.

Now that would be crazy if Horton got promoted. He did blow through his last two starts pretty easily. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I hadn't seen anything, but yeah that's what it says: https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2023/8/9/23826866/cubs-comeback-falls-short-despite-seiya-suzukis-breakout-vs-mets-ben-brown-ryan-jensen

 

It's just ambiguous enough that I'm not 100% certain it's a typo, but I'd still bet that's what it is.

He didn’t pitch yesterday and he was scheduled. Maybe he was brought up to AAA. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

It's a smart move. The rotation could use the boost big time. That's the type of arm that can really change a staff's outlook. 

 

Just really glad they pulled the trigger. Exciting!

 

 

[Jason Ross]

I'm not sure he's been promoted or not.  Is there anything more official than the Chicago Sun Times article?  Or any other source?  I've twitter-seached Cade Horton and haven't seen any discussion on the topic.  Because it'd be very easy to slide in an extra "A" and have it sneak by.  I know I had checked the week in advance on MiLB At Bat on my phone and TN did not have any probable starters this week.  Not to say it didn't change, just that I noticed they didn't have anyone listed.  

Iowa is also listed as TBD, but they always list TBD on the app.

The Cubs are usually pretty conservative with pitchers.  Giving Horton an extra day, especially when he's still being kept at specific pitch counts, seems more likely than the Cubs promoting him to AAA after 4 innings in AA.  It'd be fun if its the case, but seems unlikely.

Edited August 10, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Can’t imagine Horton was promoted after 1 AA start. I assume that’s a typo by the Sun-Times.

And as mentioned by 1908, Tennessee especially doesn’t list probable starters ever so I’m not sure he truly missed a start. It’s always an educated guess when I list them.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not sure he's been promoted or not.  Is there anything more official than the Chicago Sun Times article?  Or any other source?  I've twitter-seached Cade Horton and haven't seen any discussion on the topic.  Because it'd be very easy to slide in an extra "A" and have it sneak by.  I know I had checked the week in advance on MiLB At Bat on my phone and TN did not have any probable starters this week.  Not to say it didn't change, just that I noticed they didn't have anyone listed.  

Iowa is also listed as TBD, but they always list TBD on the app.

The Cubs are usually pretty conservative with pitchers.  Giving Horton an extra day, especially when he's still being kept at specific pitch counts, seems more likely than the Cubs promoting him to AAA after 4 innings in AA.  It'd be fun if its the case, but seems unlikely.

Honestly I haven’t seen or heard anything. It was just in an article when the story was suggesting the cubs could bring up someone from AAA. And in the article it mentioned Horton as an option of one of those AAA pitchers. Since he was scheduled to pitch yesterday and didn’t I thought maybe that meant the article knew what it was talking about. But maybe it didn’t.