2023 NL Playoff Race

[bukie]

On 8/19/2023 at 10:23 PM, bukie said:

In the two weeks since I started this thread, everyone has effectively treaded water aside from the Braves, Dodgers, Giants and Padres. What does it all mean?

1.  The Braves and Dodgers effectively have the top 2 seeds locked up, so no byes are realistically in play anymore.
2. The Giants have fallen from safely clear of a playoff spot to in the muddle for the last 2 playoff spots.
3. The Padres have fallen more than 5 games out of a playoff spot, barely ahead of the Mets who gave up a month ago. Despite their solid underlying numbers, they're really in an uphill battle now and would have to go on an unreal tear to pass 4 teams that are 5+ games ahead of them.
4. The Cubs are still in a playoff spot at the moment, but could use another good run of wins to get into a solid position.

 

End of August update:

Since the last post, the Cubs have gone 9-3 against the Royals, Tigers, Pirates and Brewers, which would be successfully a "good run of wins to get in a solid position".

NL Contenders' records since August 19:

1. Dodgers 9-2
2. Brewers 8-2
3. Cubs 9-3
4. Braves 8-3
5. Phillies 8-3
6. Dbacks 7-4
7. Giants 5-6
8. Reds 5-7
9. Marlins 2-8

So...separation has begun to happen. Braves and Dodgers still 10 games clear of anyone else and have the byes effectively locked up unless someone else effectively goes undefeated in September. Brewers have played out of their minds and have gained just a half game on the Cubs in 2 weeks (thanks to the last 2 days). Phillies and Cubs have bought 2 games on the rest, while the Giants, Dbacks and Reds are within a game of each other for the last playoff spot, and the Marlins have slid to 3 back of the playoffs and 5 back of the Cubs.

 

[UMFan83]

The Marlins were 9.5 games ahead of the Cubs at the all star break. Wild

[PackLandVA]

Just keep winning (and splitting) series.

[bukie]

7 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The Marlins were 9.5 games ahead of the Cubs at the all star break. Wild

I don't want to say the Pythagorean record came through here, but...it totally came through here.

[Tim]

I told the doubters they were a bunch o' ninnies earlier in the year. I'm also feeling pretty good about my preseason prediction of 88-89 wins.

[soccer10k]

On 8/30/2023 at 8:52 PM, UMFan83 said:

The Marlins were 9.5 games ahead of the Cubs at the all star break. Wild

Marlins weren't just 9.5 games ahead of the Cubs but they had the second best record in the NL at the ASB.

Arizona was 9 up on the Cubs too. They were also tied with the Dodgers for 1st in the NL West. Now they're, well, not close to being tied for 1st place.

[PJCubfan]

It's still good to expect the playoffs, but it hurts to lose two 9th inning leads to the Reds on successive nights.  Need to hit the ball and get the last game of the series tomorrow!

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, PJCubfan said:

It's still good to expect the playoffs, but it hurts to lose two 9th inning leads to the Reds on successive nights.  Need to hit the ball and get the last game of the series tomorrow!

Welcome!

[bukie]

After another solid 5-2 week by the Cubs, here are updated Fangraphs projections for the end of the season among NL contenders:

1.  ATL: 106-56
2. LAD: 99-63
3. MIL 90-72
4. PHI 89-73
5. CHC 89-73
6. CIN: 84-78
7. MIA: 83-79
8. ARI: 82-80
9. SFG: 81-81

Darn the tiebreakers, but the Cubs are effectively in a dead heat with MIL and PHI for the 3-4-5 spots. Atlanta is pulling away with the top seed, and the Dodgers despite their hiccup against the Marlins this week are still 9 games ahead of the field. It's amazing to me that the Cubs are practically on a 90-win pace after being 43-50 in mid-July.

[PJCubfan]

Only 1.5 games behind the Brewers too!😉

[BigbadB]

On 8/31/2023 at 7:37 AM, Tim said:

I told the doubters they were a bunch o' ninnies earlier in the year. I'm also feeling pretty good about my preseason prediction of 88-89 wins.

I believe I recall my prediction was 85-90 wins. It's been a lot of fun watching them during this hot streak.

[cecilJ_]

who's in the booth with JD launching into pitching stats after Marte goes down in agony like not even acknowledging? 

 

-- thought I was in game thread. just weirded me out - seemed like my audio & video got outta sync but just an oblivious/delayed announer.

Edited September 9, 2023 by cecilJ_
wrong thread

[bukie]

The Colorado Rockies have been eliminated from playoff contention.

[PackLandVA]

3 hours ago, bukie said:

The Colorado Rockies have been eliminated from playoff contention.

And Kris Bryant is still getting a full-time check despite being a part-time player.

Good contract/signing Colorado (sarcasm).

Good contract/signing KB (serious).

[Brian707]

Cubs Magic number to clinch a playoff spot=15

Cubs Tragic number for the Central Division=16