Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[CubbyBlue2008]

5 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Levine says according to his sources it’s all Cubs - Dodgers for Ohtani . With all the talk about no leaks this makes me a bit nervous but whatever .

I think the Ohtani leaks thing was more about meeting with teams, right?

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Levine says according to his sources it’s all Cubs - Dodgers for Ohtani . With all the talk about no leaks this makes me a bit nervous but whatever .

Yeah, it’s going to be tricky to decide which info to trust and not trust regarding Ohtani. I know he wants it quiet, but I do think there will still be info that gets out. 
 

For example, insiders will still be able to get info from the FO of teams that are out on Ohtani. So for instance, I can buy into what you posted here as having some meaning. 
 

Like yesterday it came out that Seattle was out. Somebody inside their FO telling Levine or name your insider, that they are out, but Chicago and LA are the most aggressive in their pursuit can and will definitely happen. 
 

Now the teams that are really in it aren’t going to talk. Jed will never admit or leak to an insider any details about their pursuit of Ohtani as long as they are still in it. 

[gocubs218]

I mean, it’s not really going out on a limb to say it’s between us and the Dodgers. 

[JD94]

14 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

I mean, it’s not really going out on a limb to say it’s between us and the Dodgers. 

I mean… if that’s true, that’s major news. Not really something to scoff at. 

[Bertz]

I saw a little smoke around Matt Chapman to the Giants.  Considering they also very much need to set some funds aside for a frontline pitcher, if they're going down the road with Chapman that's a sign they might not feel great about their Ohtani pursuit?

If Giants and Mariners are indeed out, it very much would feel like it's more or less Dodgers vs. Cubs.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I saw a little smoke around Matt Chapman to the Giants.  Considering they also very much need to set some funds aside for a frontline pitcher, if they're going down the road with Chapman that's a sign they might not feel great about their Ohtani pursuit?

If Giants and Mariners are indeed out, it very much would feel like it's more or less Dodgers vs. Cubs.

Yeah, that's true. And really, probably fits with the Ohtani-timeline. If there are two serious clubs here, one of which is in the city that Shohei has been in for his career date, it probably shortens the signing timeline. It isn't like another club is going to magically find $400m in budget in December. 

[Rcal10]

I don’t know if it matters to Ohtani or not, but he has to consider with the Dodgers he shares the spotlight with Betts and Freeman. With the Cubs he owns the spotlight. Also, he has been in LA for several years. We have no idea his thoughts on the city. There is a report that Darvish talked Chicago up. Darvish was also in LA, yet he spoke highly of Chicago. He did that a few years back with Suzucki too. Having Suzucki here can also influence Ohtani. And if they get a Japanese pitcher as a FA as well, he has a few Japanese players on the team.  That could matter. Bottom line is the Cubs do have a lot going for them. I just matters what Ohtani feels is important, besides just money…..of course.

[JD94]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t know if it matters to Ohtani or not, but he has to consider with the Dodgers he shares the spotlight with Betts and Freeman. With the Cubs he owns the spotlight. Also, he has been in LA for several years. We have no idea his thoughts on the city. There is a report that Darvish talked Chicago up. Darvish was also in LA, yet he spoke highly of Chicago. He did that a few years back with Suzucki too. Having Suzucki here can also influence Ohtani. And if they get a Japanese pitcher as a FA as well, he has a few Japanese players on the team.  That could matter. Bottom line is the Cubs do have a lot going for them. I just matters what Ohtani feels is important, besides just money…..of course.

Plus those California state tax <<<<
 

that’s not nothing 

[JD94]

So apparently Ohtani just brought in $100M in revenue for the Angels last year. In one year. I mean wow. This is right up Ricketts ally. It’s a win-win for them. No matter what Ohtani gets, Ricketts still makes money on this deal and he gets to keep hundreds of thousands of fans happy by signing off on getting them the best player in baseball. I see why we are all in on Ohtani. He’s going to bring in WAY more money than his contract. I mean we already knew Ohtani would bring in crazy money in revenue, but I didn’t think $100M ANNUALLY. That number might be even higher if he’s a Cub. All the Japanese that will buy Marquee with him and Suzuki on the team. All the jersey sales. It’s a no brainer for Tom. 
 

Here’s the article:

 

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, gocubs218 said:

I mean, it’s not really going out on a limb to say it’s between us and the Dodgers. 

 

Sure it is, when the Giants, Yankees, Mets, and other big spenders are out there

[SOFNR]

49 minutes ago, JD94 said:

So apparently Ohtani just brought in $100M in revenue for the Angels last year. In one year. I mean wow. This is right up Ricketts ally. It’s a win-win for them. No matter what Ohtani gets, Ricketts still makes money on this deal and he gets to keep hundreds of thousands of fans happy by signing off on getting them the best player in baseball. I see why we are all in on Ohtani. He’s going to bring in WAY more money than his contract. I mean we already knew Ohtani would bring in crazy money in revenue, but I didn’t think $100M ANNUALLY. That number might be even higher if he’s a Cub. All the Japanese that will buy Marquee with him and Suzuki on the team. All the jersey sales. It’s a no brainer for Tom. 
 

Here’s the article:

 

I don't know about the accuracy of this guy's source but I don't think that would be shocking. It's the only reason I've been slightly optimistic on Ohtani. It's just a different situation than most FA. Opens up a lots of opportunities in a new market and he's possibly paying for himself even if the team sucks. Their #1 priority is always make the most money and this move probably fits for them. And you might as well create a good team around him for a few years and to try create new fans. I think Yamamoto has to be very intriguing too. They can always pull the rug out again in a few years and still make money off Ohtani.

Edited November 18, 2023 by SOFNR

[CubbyBlue2008]

I mean if he made $100 mil with the damn Angels of all teams, he’d make stupid money here in Chicago.

Edited November 18, 2023 by CubbyBlue2008

[Bertz]

Marquee is the reason I allow myself to believe Ricketts would okay this.  For many years fans have been like "he'll pay for himself in attendance and jersey sales" about that year's star, and it's just not true.  Apparel goes into a league-wide pot, and attendance really only moves with team-competitiveness.  And in the RSN model revenue was locked in.

But now that the Ricketts own Marquee, and with the DTC offering finally launched, there are actually legitimate externalities to be had from a star.  And Ohtani is by a million miles the most popular baseball player in the world.

One thing I wonder about relatedly is payroll.  If you sign Ohtani, you probably have to make some pretty concrete assurances on the team that will be surrounding him.  So I'd think you definitely need to run a payroll in the ~$260 range this season?  And even that feels a little tight.  And then dipping under the LT to reset penalties doesn't really look feasible until '27 when Happ/Seiya/Nico/Taillon come off the books.  Approaching, much less exceeding, the 3rd LT level and running LT repeater penalties for a 3rd year are two things that were off limits for Theo and Jed circa 2019, so are they in play now.  Does the launch of Marquee and/or the unique circumstances around Ohtani change that?

Edited November 18, 2023 by Bertz

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

So apparently Ohtani just brought in $100M in revenue for the Angels last year. In one year. I mean wow. This is right up Ricketts ally. It’s a win-win for them. No matter what Ohtani gets, Ricketts still makes money on this deal and he gets to keep hundreds of thousands of fans happy by signing off on getting them the best player in baseball. I see why we are all in on Ohtani. He’s going to bring in WAY more money than his contract. I mean we already knew Ohtani would bring in crazy money in revenue, but I didn’t think $100M ANNUALLY. That number might be even higher if he’s a Cub. All the Japanese that will buy Marquee with him and Suzuki on the team. All the jersey sales. It’s a no brainer for Tom. 
 

Here’s the article:

 

If he makes 50m a year and brings in 100m.... he might sign for more than 50m AAV.  And he stillpays for himself.

Going over the cbt line for both Dodgers and Cubs changes the calculation but we still have a good shot.

With Yamamoto and other Japanese pitchers being posted for only 45 days and Dodgers and Cubs being interested there too, gotta believe Ohtani signs before Xmas

Edited November 18, 2023 by Stratos

[Jason Ross]

While I do not doubt Ohtani is worth a good amount of revenue, I cannot buy he's worth $100m in revenue, per season. Thats kind of absurd. 

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If he makes 50m a year and brings in 100m.... he might sign for more than 50m AAV.  And he stillpays for himself.

Going over the cbt line for both Dodgers and Cubs changes the calculation but we still have a good shot.

With Yamamoto and other Japanese pitchers being posted for only 45 days and Dodgers and Cubs being interested there too, gotta believe Ohtani signs before Xmas

Rumors are he's signing before the Winter Meetings. Not just Christmas, it could be within 2 weeks. If he doesn't sign by the end of the WM it would be shocking at this point.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, JD94 said:

I agree, but I think it’s been proven that you don’t have to be the Dodgers winning 100+ games and the division each year to be a WS contender. You just have to be a good team that gets hot at the right time. We just watched a WS with 2 wild card teams in it… not the Dodgers, Braves, or Astros. The Phillies went to the WS last year as a Wild Card team. The Nats won it a few years ago as a Wild Card team. Don’t get me wrong, you’d rather be the Dodgers than the Giants or Dbacks hoping to just sneak in the WC and do it that way, but what’s important at the end of the day is just being good enough to get in. 
 

I do think we can sell Ohtani that we are set up to run this division for the foreseeable future. The Brewers are about to take a massive step back. The Pirates aren’t anywhere close. The Cardinals aren’t good right now. The Reds have a few nice young players, but they aren’t a threat. The Cubs however have a solid MLB team as it is, plus a top 3 farm system in baseball, & money to spend. We are far and away in the best position of anybody in the division. 

Yep, it has been proven you don’t have to win the division to be in the World Series. But the NL team in the WS is also in SF division. I just don’t believe SF has all that great a chance at the playoffs every year because of how tough there division is. Cubs, on the other hand, “should” dominate and very well could dominate if they decide to spend like a large market team that they are. 
Of course the Dodgers, being the most likely destination of Ohtani, can not only claim they could dominate the division, they have proved it for years. 

[Cubs70]

8 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, that's true. And really, probably fits with the Ohtani-timeline. If there are two serious clubs here, one of which is in the city that Shohei has been in for his career date, it probably shortens the signing timeline. It isn't like another club is going to magically find $400m in budget in December. 

You mean the Pirates aren't a contender for him?

[Brian707]

23 hours ago, JD94 said:

Plus those California state tax <<<<
 

that’s not nothing 

Yeah it's a nothing burger. LeBron had no issues with it nor does just about any other sports star. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Brian707

[JD94]

30 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Yeah it's a nothing burger. LeBron had no issues with it nor does just about any other sports star. 

Sure stars still go to Cali. I never said they didn’t. But plenty have chosen not to, or to leave at first opportunity. In golf, Tiger and Mickleson both left Cali due to state taxes. When the 49ers drafted Trey Lance, his rookie deal / signing bonus was $34M… after paying $18M in taxes, he only walked away with $16M. I never said it was a deciding factor regarding Ohtani. All I said was it’s a negative. And it is. Losing money is a negative. Whether you’re an athlete making hundreds of millions, or an average person making 100k a year. 

[JD94]

45 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Yeah it's a nothing burger. LeBron had no issues with it nor does just about any other sports star. 

Also it wasn’t a nothing burger for Bryce Harper. He didn’t sign with the Giants due to California state taxes. 

[Brian707]

40 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Also it wasn’t a nothing burger for Bryce Harper. He didn’t sign with the Giants due to California state taxes. 

Come on. It wasn't the state taxes. The Giants were on the decline as to why he chose Philly over SF. 

[JD94]

29 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Come on. It wasn't the state taxes. The Giants were on the decline as to why he chose Philly over SF. 

“As his agent, Scott Boras noted, it didn’t hurt Philadelphia’s chances that its highest marginal tax rate was about 10 percent less than the 13.3 rate Harper would have faced in California.”

Jesus man. Nobody is saying Cali state taxes is the deciding factor EVER. I made one little comment that said “it’s not nothing.” It doesn’t matter. It was a tongue in cheek comment. I literally just gave you an example of a super star player whose agent mentioned it. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Brian707 said:

Yeah it's a nothing burger. LeBron had no issues with it nor does just about any other sports star. 

I disagree with you. It isn’t nothing. Maybe not a huge deal. Maybe the team he is signing with in CA has to come up with more money to make up for the tax loss. Maybe it isn’t a huge deal, but it is something. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Rcal10

[ToolDRT]

Yeah, I think it’s a player by player thing. If he really has his heart set on the dodgers for instance, I’m sure the taxes won’t be a “dealbreaker”.

If he’s completely open to any and all teams it might be on the list of very tiny things that go into making such a large decision. I’m sure there’s factors well ahead of it, but it might feature somewhere on the list. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by ToolDRT