Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-19-23

[Tryptamine]

I haven't really thought about it, but what do we think PCA profiles as a hitter in MLB? Maybe a .275/.340/.440 guy with 15HR and 30 SB and elite CF defense? If he can pull that off, that's crazy valuable. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I haven't really thought about it, but what do we think PCA profiles as a hitter in MLB? Maybe a .275/.340/.440 guy with 15HR and 30 SB and elite CF defense? If he can pull that off, that's crazy valuable. 

Jackie Bradley Jr's peak is the upside you can dream on I think.  Maybe trade a few walks for SB, especially in the current environment.

 

Season	Team	Level	Age	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2016	BOS	MLB	26	156	636	26	94	87	9	9.9%	22.5%	.219	.312	.267	.349	.486	.354	.331	118	5.1	19.1	13.9	5.6

 

 

[Jason Ross]

PCA's hit tool will be what carries him at the MLB, but his hyper aggressiveness at the plate will likely deflate the OBP/walk rates.  Even as he matures there, he's a free swinger, and MLB pitchers will exploit this.  His peak, best case scenario for me is something like a .300/.330/.450 type, with ~5-6% walk rate, a K% in the 20-22%, and 20 HR's, 30 doubles, 5 triples and 30 stolen bases with +10 DRS in CF.  That's crazy valuable, and I know that, but we're going "peak" here.  I think his most likely outcome is in the Kevin Kiermaier mold; a 2.5-3.5 fWAR guy in CF who can hit 15 home runs, adds value on the bases and the field first and foremost, and sits between a 90-110 wRC+ hitter most seasons as his hyper aggressive nature at the plate takes BABIP turns up and down.  

Edited July 20, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CubinNY]

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

PCA's hit tool will be what carries him at the MLB, but his hyper aggressiveness at the plate will likely deflate the OBP/walk rates.  Even as he matures there, he's a free swinger, and MLB pitchers will exploit this.  His peak, best case scenario for me is something like a .300/.330/.450 type, with ~5-6% walk rate, a K% in the 20-22%, and 20 HR's, 30 doubles, 5 triples and 30 stolen bases with +10 DRS in CF.  That's crazy valuable, and I know that, but we're going "peak" here.  I think his most likely outcome is in the Kevin Kiermaier mold; a 2.5-3.5 fWAR guy in CF who can hit 15 home runs, adds value on the bases and the field first and foremost, and sits between a 90-110 wRC+ hitter most seasons as his hyper aggressive nature at the plate takes BABIP turns up and down.  

I wrote on the page back, that he has a lot of Javy in him. I think he's a higher BA version of Javy in CF, If we could get a peak version of Javy (2018) out of him for a few years, that would be incredible. 

40 doubles, 9 triples, 34 HR, .290/.326/.554 gold glove CF. 

[sneakypower]

only real ones know

[sneakypower]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

40 doubles, 9 triples, 34 HR, .290/.326/.554 gold glove CF. 

i hate to be that guy but if you're expecting "Nolan Arenado but CF" you might wind up a little bit disappointed

[CubinNY]

27 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i hate to be that guy but if you're expecting "Nolan Arenado but CF" you might wind up a little bit disappointed

disappointed is my homeland. 

But a guy can dream. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Hmm, there's a legit chance that PCA might be your opening day CFer. Of course knowing the Cubs, they'll let Tauchmann be that guy for the first 4-6 weeks then bring up PCA.

I think he’ll start the year with the big league team if only so they have a chance at an extra first rounder in 2025.

[Hrubes20]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Jackie Bradley Jr's peak is the upside you can dream on I think.  Maybe trade a few walks for SB, especially in the current environment.

 

Season	Team	Level	Age	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2016	BOS	MLB	26	156	636	26	94	87	9	9.9%	22.5%	.219	.312	.267	.349	.486	.354	.331	118	5.1	19.1	13.9	5.6

 

 

That seems just about right for peak.  As a hitter, I keep going back to Starling Marte for my comp.

[Tryptamine]

31 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

That seems just about right for peak.  As a hitter, I keep going back to Starling Marte for my comp.

Actually I kind of like this, I hadn't thought of this comp before. I think PCA might have a slightly worse hit tool, but it's pretty close.

[Tim]

54 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

That seems just about right for peak.  As a hitter, I keep going back to Starling Marte for my comp.

Starling Marte with outstanding defense? Sign me up.

[sneakypower]

4 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I think he’ll start the year with the big league team if only so they have a chance at an extra first rounder in 2025.

i don't think i know what mechanism you're suggesting here

how would this be a possibility?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i don't think i know what mechanism you're suggesting here

how would this be a possibility?

 

https://theathletic.com/3187914/2022/03/16/mlbs-collective-bargaining-agreement-guide-to-the-changes-in-the-2022-26-labor-deal/

Quote

Teams who promote players in time to receive a full year of service, which is 172 days — so, Opening Day, or very shortly thereafter — have a chance at additional picks in the amateur draft. (If an international draft is agreed to, teams can potentially receive international picks, as well). Players with 60 days of service or less, who have rookie eligibility and are included in two or more of the preseason top-100 prospect lists put out by Baseball America, MLB.com or ESPN, are eligible. If, in the time before they hit salary arbitration, those players go on to win Rookie of the Year, finish top three in MVP voting or top three in Cy Young voting, their team gets an amateur draft pick following the end of the first round. A player can only create one new amateur draft pick for his team over time. But if an international draft arrives, a team can get as many as three total picks: two international and one amateur, with a max of one such pick per year).

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

38 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

https://theathletic.com/3187914/2022/03/16/mlbs-collective-bargaining-agreement-guide-to-the-changes-in-the-2022-26-labor-deal/

 

This year, the Mariners got the 29th pick (and ~$2.9 million more pool money) because Julio Rodríguez was up on Opening Day 2022 and won the AL Rookie of the Year.

[JD94]

 

[JD94]

likely nothing, but interesting. I’m sure he was just fooling around