The only trade proposal required: the Cubpocalypse must start paying off

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

What did we go through selling our heroes off for? To be here now: just a few pieces from a new core for years

And we are indeed here, or, we have definitely made our choices: The Cubs are locked in long-term at 2b, SS, LF, RF - no change possible.

We are also locked in at 3b and DH, despite contrary opinion: Both Morel and Madrigal must be in the lineup every day.

It's insane to old heads, but Justin Turner is currently 10th in the NL in BA at just .278. .278! I find it impossible to believe that there's truly no spot in the modern MLB for a guy who is a GUARANTEED top 10 BA guy year in and year out like Madrigal would definitely be. I hold this truth on principle, but I also think his OBP and SLG would not be so atrocious as others think. If Madrigal could hit .299 - totally realistic - he'd currently be 4th in NL in BA. Crazy, but true, and you can't tell me a guy who is 4th in BA is a 4A player. His original nickname was "Nicky 3,000" after all, and not "Nicky 2 strikes", after the 3,000 hits he could get if he could avoid being "Nicky Medical". Morel is by far the most dynamic bat we have, and his game has matured this year in a way no one could imagine. Both of these cheap guys need to share DH and 3B and develop - hopefully both do. Locked in. 

We are locked in - if we're smart - with Steele, Taillon, Stroman and - assuming his first 9 starts are maintainable - Hendricks through next year. CF will be manned by PCA next year (spoiler: there's not many HR there, FYI). C is being held by Jhanny Bench Gomes and Barnart, with Amaya as the obvious future. All locked-in pieces. 

Where does that leave us? We NEED TO USE OUR MANY ASSETS to get a slugging 1B, a closer and a #2 strikeouting starter.

Baseball Prospectus has us having a whopping 52 legit prospects - Matt Mervis is just #46, to give some indication of how deep we are. The kool-aid is strong on our farm right now, we have only these 3 actual spots to improve, we cannot improve in ANY OTHER spots as we have made our choices already, and we have NO ROOM for all these prospects, many of which came over during the Cubpocalypse. 

So trade away our assets now, again? What on EARTH do we need more prospects for? Why on earth would we do ANOTHER white flag trade, and with this division? Why would we commit to Seiya, Happ, Hoerner and (we should) Stroman if we're not competing now? 

We get these 3 things and WE ARE SET - that's our team, for better or for worse. A slugging 1B is the top priority because we have NO other place who can give SLG - every other lineup spot is set. We have to get a closer because our original plan - create a closer via our great bullpen development from the farm - went out with Codi Heuer's elbow; WS contenders have lockdown closers, and we do not. Sure we'd love a true #1 Ace but with Steele, Stroman and another #2, one who can provide us with the strikeouts/lane-changing game to game look we need - that's a darn good 3-headed monster for the playoffs; that's one which can actually win. 

So they MUST USE as many of these 52 prospects AS IT TAKES to get these 3 things THIS YEAR because WE HAVE OUR TEAM ALREADY, practically.

The only untouchable prospects are PCA, Horton, a guy who might be the Strikeouting ace we need and Caissie, a guy who might be the HR monster we need at 1b/DH. Morel is untouchable because he's the only guy who has some of what we most definitely need and can only get from a new 1b - HR and SLG power, so that'd be robbing Peter to pay Paul. I wouldn't like it but Madrigal can be traded in the right deal, I suppose. I wouldn't like it but Amaya can be traded in the right deal, as we have some C prospects and Jhanny Bench/Barnhart do so very well calling games. But ONLY for these 3 needs, and 1b is by far the most urgent need on our team.

Wake up! We have our team already! From what I see there aren't hardly any 1b FA this offseason, so use our vast quantity of good-not-great prospects to get one. Use Jordan Wicks, possibly next year's Caleb Killian, or Alcantara, who could become next year's Brennan Davis - the point is STOP overrating prospects cuz we have TOO MANY already. Use them to BUY! 

And we have just literally a few true holes: a homer-heavy 1b, a Strikeouting #2ish SP, a closer. 

That's a team that actually could go all the way. What else was the Cubpocalypse for? We're closer than we think, but not if we hoard prospects like it's August 2020, still! It ain't!  

I think the Cubs brass knows this - they gave out the contracts I talked about - so if they don't come thru with those 3 needs this year as it's SO CLEARLY the correct move - it's off with their head, in honor of yesterday's Bastille Day. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the team 5 games under .500 is more than three pieces away.

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

Not really. The only 3 needs we have (the only 3 places we can even make changes) are quite big and would have a major impact. #4 hitter, #2 SP and closer - these are huge game changers. 

Unless you're talking about trading Happ or Seiya, this is our team. Everywhere else is locked in except 1b, closer and #2ish strikeouting SP.  

Trading for more prospects we don't need, instead of using our many prospects to fill those 3 needs, is crazy dumb. Only Stroman could bring us something which fills one of those 3 needs, anyway. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Nearly no one on this team should be considered “locked in” for 2024. Swanson, Hoerner, and Steele is probably about it. That doesn’t mean the roster needs to be turned over aside from those three, but if there’s an opportunity to improve on current production, it should be done.

[Rex Buckingham]

Sure, Happ and Suzuki aren't going anywhere, but they're basically only producing league average numbers at the plate, and Happ's is OBP-heavy (which is obviously good, but the biggest problem - as you stated - is a lack of SLG).  Also, if Madrigal is who he was for the last stretch between injuries, then maybe he's fine in the lineup, but again, it's without any real SLG at a position where you need SLG.  You need to be shopping Madrigal for someone who thinks they need his contact bat in their lineup.

[Sosa21MVP]

You lost me with the nonsense about Madrigal. 

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

My bad, Turner was 10th last year at .278.

Madrigal is at .278 this year (i.e. tied for #10 in BA this year, if he had enough plate appearances), despite a very rough start.

Betts is #9 this year at .287. Madrigal is a lifetime .287, despite a bad year last year and bad start this year.

The guy is a top 10 BA hitter, guaranteed. There's got to be a place for him in today's MLB or the world is upside down. It's not what this team needs - which is SLG - but to undervalue him is an obvious mistake.

We need a true HR masher #4 hitter at 1b - that's what those 52 prospects should be going to buy first. And then a closer and #2 pitcher. If we get those things, then we can complain about Madrigal at 3b.  

[jersey cubs fan]

Why are we talking about batting average in the year of our lord twenty twenty three?

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

Because only 4 players are hitting .300 in the NL this year, thus it's actually hard to do, and Madrigal can do it?

And because a lineup stuffed with 3-outcome hitters has produced 1 playoff win since 2017? 

Edited July 17, 2023 by Javy Is Still A Cub

[jersey cubs fan]

3 minutes ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

Because only 4 players are hitting .300 in the NL this year, thus it's actually hard to do, and Madrigal can do it?

Being able to do something isn’t the same as doing it. He’s like the 12th best player on a bad baseball team. There’s nothing there. 

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

Nah, not when he's healthy.

Anyway, a WS-winning team has - what - 15 good-to-great pieces? 7 G-to-G hitters, 3 G-to-G fielders, 3 great SP, 2 great reliever. That's a minimum.  

Which proves the point of my reference of him in the OP: Madrigal is not the problem. The problem is no SLG 1b, no closer and no #2 Strikeouter. Madrigal is a very good piece on the right team, but the Cubs won't be "right" until they get the above 3.

If they gotta trade Madrigal to get one of the above 3, fine, but he's not the flaw that needs fixing.  Use the #52 to fix them. The Cubpocalypse of 2020 should be paying off now, ESPECIALLY because we have set in stone many pieces and ONLY have those 3 major holes. 

[Outshined_One]

You can live with Madrigal as a pre-arb guy who provides positive defensive contributions in the infield, but his bat actively detracts from those defensive contributions he provides.

If you want him as a budget-conscious bottom of the order type whose presence lets you allocate resources elsewhere, fine, but he's basically Juan Pierre at a more valuable position with more strikeouts and significantly fewer stolen bases.

[Derwood]

8 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

You can live with Madrigal as a pre-arb guy who provides positive defensive contributions in the infield, but his bat actively detracts from those defensive contributions he provides.

If you want him as a budget-conscious bottom of the order type whose presence lets you allocate resources elsewhere, fine, but he's basically Juan Pierre at a more valuable position with more strikeouts and significantly fewer stolen bases.

 

I was going to say David Eckstein, but it's the same idea

[Transmogrified Tiger]

20 minutes ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

Nah, not when he's healthy.

Anyway, a WS-winning team has - what - 15 good-to-great pieces? 7 G-to-G hitters, 3 G-to-G fielders, 3 great SP, 2 great reliever. That's a minimum.  

Which proves the point of my reference of him in the OP: Madrigal is not the problem. The problem is no SLG 1b, no closer and no #2 Strikeouter. Madrigal is a very good piece on the right team, but the Cubs won't be "right" until they get the above 3.

If they gotta trade Madrigal to get one of the above 3, fine, but he's not the flaw that needs fixing.  Use the #52 to fix them. The Cubpocalypse of 2020 should be paying off now, ESPECIALLY because we have set in stone many pieces and ONLY have those 3 major holes. 

I don't think your overall conception of a good team here is completely off base, but I think you'll find most people here are thinking about roster building at a more detailed level than the "slugging 1B" "strikeout #2" roles you're describing.  So more people are gonna disagree with the initial assumptions even before you get into the specifics of a player like Madrigal

 

As it relates to Madrigal, I'm maybe the biggest Madrigal optimist on the site, but I think he's a poor fit for this team.  The best version of Madrigal is a decent starter on a good team, a 3 win player in those peak years that's driven by hit tool and positional value that makes up for taking few walks and hitting for no power.  Those deficiencies are big enough that even if he is elite at getting hits, there's a hard ceiling on how much value he can add that most players don't have.  The problem though is less that he's got those limitations, and more that this player isn't maximized on a team that 1) doesn't have enough HR power and 2) has a core player that plays everyday at 2B that also gets more value from defense than they do patience or power.  Even if Madrigal does hit to the optimistic outcome, he can mostly only fill in at 3B, which shines a brighter light on his shortcomings considering that Hoerner isn't compensating for that with his bat.  And while Madrigal has hit better recently, he's not only not hitting to that optimistic outcome but he can't stay healthy enough to play his way into the consistent time he needs to keep that hit tool sharp.  

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

Juan Pierre had a really good career, and was unfairly denigrated by Cubs fans, but Madrigal can be better if he stays healthy (at least over a few years, though maybe not over a whole career)

Pierre only finished in the top 10 in BA twice, even though he hit nearly .330 both times. It's a different era. Pierre had SB but he also had a noodle arm - Madrigal is looking like a plus defender at 3rd. 

Madrigal playing a full season and not hitting .304, i.e. #4 in BA this year? Seems unlikely. If he stays healthy he's a top 5 BA guy year in and year out, because BA has become so undervalued/Madrigal is so good at it. 

Anyway, the point is: BUY what's needed with the prospects we have, don't SELL to get even more prospects. 

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

Juan Pierre had a really good career, and was unfairly denigrated by Cubs fans, but Madrigal can be better if he stays healthy (at least over a few years, though maybe not over a whole career)

Pierre only finished in the top 10 in BA twice, even though he hit nearly .330 both times. It's a different era. Pierre had SB but he also had a noodle arm - Madrigal is looking like a plus defender at 3rd. 

Madrigal playing a full season and not hitting .304, i.e. #4 in BA this year? Seems unlikely. If he stays healthy he's a top 5 BA guy year in and year out, because BA has become so undervalued/Madrigal is so good at it. 

Anyway, the point is: BUY what's needed with the prospects we have, don't SELL to get even more prospects. 

 

BA is traditionally OVER-valued, not undervalued

[CubinNY]

A guy like Madrigal has more value on a team like Philly or Boston than he does on the Cubs. He's not going to drive in runs, but he can motor around on a trott after HR. On the Cubs, he's standing on 1st base or the lead out on a DP. With the way the Cubs are constructed he doesn't fit. 

Please don't bring up Juan Pierre. Hendry wanted "a leadoff hitter" as if that is a position in baseball. 

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

"I don't think your overall conception of a good team here is completely off base, but I think you'll find most people here are thinking about roster building at a more detailed level than the "slugging 1B" "strikeout #2" roles you're describing.  So more people are gonna disagree with the initial assumptions even before you get into the specifics of a player like Madrigal"

 

Well TT, what is there to disagree with, other than semantics? We're locked in at all places except 1b, closer and another good SP. This is the team. We have some flexibility at 3b/DH, but I'd say just develop Morel & Madrigal there. If we don't build those 3 spots of our roster, we will have failed in fixing what are clearly our biggest holes. 

I appreciate the Madrigal sidebars, but he's not a ginormous problem like those 3 spots. I can't believe our brass wouldn't see it this way either - they better use some of these #52 assets this year... as opposed to waiting years for Caissie and Horton to be the saviours WHEN our team is mostly all set -3 everywhere else. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by Javy Is Still A Cub

[sneakypower]

Nick Madigral as a Cub is 22% below league average OPS+; he's part of the problem not the solution

hitting an empty .280 still makes you a very bad offensive player

Edited July 17, 2023 by sneakypower
*

[champaignchris]

Nick Madrigal has yet to play 60 games in any Major League season and hasn’t surpassed 70 games total in a professional season since 2019. 
 

I’d like to see him prove he can stay healthy for more than a month at a time before I count on him to fill a MLB roster spot. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Nick Madrigal is a low baseball IQ player with one tool that actually isn’t that strong of a tool.

 

Also the Cubs don’t have 52 worthwhile prospects. Stop it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

I was going to say David Eckstein, but it's the same idea

Madrigal has a ways to go to catch Eckstein, who was very valuable in 2002 and a solid regular for quite awhile, accumulating 16 fWAR in his career.

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

1 hour ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Nick Madrigal is a low baseball IQ player with one tool that actually isn’t that strong of a tool.

 

Also the Cubs don’t have 52 worthwhile prospects. Stop it.

Take it up with Fangraphs. 

The Cubs have 52 prospects, some of which should be turned into our 3 main needs in order to make this a complete, contending team. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think you're misunderstanding what it means to be a "legit" prospect on the Fangraphs list.  The Cubs have a deep farm, they had the 3rd most prospects on a FG list and their 6 prospects with 50 or better FV's is tied 4th best among teams(behind 3 orgs w/ 7).  They should absolutely use their prospect depth to improve the team for 2024 and beyond.  That doesn't mean they have no room for prospects or that they have a big talent surplus compared to other teams though.  Fangraphs lists have enough prospects across all teams to completely fill every 40 man roster in MLB, most of those prospects won't have any type of MLB future.  Mervis being listed #46 is not a testament to insane depth, it's Fangraphs saying they think Mervis is not much of a prospect at all.

[mul21]

The batting average conversation is way out in left field but I think the larger point of "The Cubs should try to buy roster cornerstones with their excess of prospects regardless of playoff hopes this year" is a salient point.  The likelihood of that happening is near zero because they don't have any high end prospects they aren't counting on in the near term and other teams who are actually in contention will be willing to pay more.  If Jed were to pull something like that off, tip of the cap, but I don't think he has the vision or creativity to make it happen.