Article: 2023 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Tryptamine]

"Shaw might be one of the better college hitters in the Draft class. He rarely strikes out and draws walks while making consistently hard contact. He can drive the ball to all fields and he showed off impressive opposite-field power last year for Maryland, with many of his homers going out to right and right-center field. He’s a plus runner who is a legitimate basestealing threat."

From mlb.com 

[CubinNY]

According to BN Shaw raked in the Cape Cod League last year  (.360/.432/.574)

Edited July 10, 2023 by CubinNY

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

According to BN Shaw raked in the Cape Cod League last year  (.360/.432/.574)

Was the MVP

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Matt Shaw's rankings:

Athletic - 7

BA - 13

ESPN - 10

FanGraphs - 18

MLB Pipeline - 16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law, Athletic:

Quote

Let’s get the big thing out of the way first — Shaw is a shortstop now, but he is not a shortstop, and if he’d just played second base all spring I think he’d sail into the top 10 picks. So much of the conversation around him has centered on his defensive shortcomings, notably his below-average arm, that there’s been too little focus on the fact that this guy hits. Shaw makes consistent, hard contact, and his average launch angle of 26 degrees puts him right in line for a high Barrel percentage. He’s walked more than he’s struck out so far this year, and after hitting 22 homers as a sophomore, he hit 23 this spring before even getting to the Big Ten tournament — despite getting COVID-19 early in the season, which cost him a weekend when he looked exhausted and may have given some scouts a bad look. I think he’ll be an above-average defender at second, as he’ll show adequate range at short — it’s his arm that will move him off, not his hands or feet. Even at second base, he has All-Star upside because of the bat.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA:

Quote

Ht: 5'11" | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

 

School: Maryland Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted 
Age At Draft: 21.7 
BA Grade:55/High
Tools:Hit: 55. Power: 55. Run: 55. Field: 45. Arm: 45. 

A highly-competitive middle infielder, Shaw started his career as the everyday second baseman for Maryland as a freshman in 2021, before assuming the starting shortstop role in his sophomore year. Shaw has been a powerful hitter throughout his collegiate career and broke Maryland’s program home run record in 2023, while also blitzing through the Cape Cod League in 2022, where he ranked as the No. 1 prospect. He is listed at 5-foot-11, 185 pounds, but has significantly more strength than you’d expect from that frame thanks to snap-quick hands and immense wrist and forearm strength. He hit .344/.447/.695 in 61 games in 2023, with 23 home runs and 20 doubles, a 13.8% walk rate and 13.5% strikeout rate. Shaw has a closed stance and large leg kick but his bat speed and strength allow him to drive the ball to all fields with authority and he wore out the right-center gap with home run power as a junior, with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 107 mph. After struggling with contact against secondaries as a freshman and sophomore, Shaw improved significantly in that area in 2023, though he does still expand the strike zone a bit too much. He’s an above-average runner with standout baserunning instincts and went 18-for-19 (94.7%) on the bases in 2023. Shaw should have the defensive ability to stick on the infield, but there’s skepticism that shortstop is his long-term home. He should be fine as a serviceable second baseman with fringe-average arm strength.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

ESPN:

Quote

10. Matt Shaw (21.6), 2B, Maryland

Hit: 35/55, Power: 35/55, Speed: 55/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50

I've liked Shaw the most of this run of college position players from my in-person looks. At first, his swing looks to be too busy, but then you see that he can repeat it to put up numbers. His frame does not look like that of a shortstop, and he isn't, but his hands are plenty good for other spots on the infield. He feels like Justin Foscue, who went 14th overall in the 2020 draft out of Mississippi State, but maybe a better hitter.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fangraphs:

Quote

Matt Shaw
TLDR
Full Report
Shaw is a 5-foot-11 stick of dynamite who swings really, really hard. He is looking to do huge damage with every hack, and he often does. He smacked 22 homers for Maryland in 2022 and 24 more in 2023, with most of them soaring out to the opposite field. Shaw's compact, Dan Uggla-like frame is part of what enables him to swing with such effort without striking out excessively. His bat path doesn't cover the top third of the zone very well and that might be an issue eventually, but the strength and bat speed to hit 20 or 25 homers in the big leagues is here, which would be great for a middle infielder. Medium arm strength likely funnels him to second base even though he played short at Maryland.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fangraphs also had these tool grades

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline:

Quote

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

The University of Maryland has produced some solid middle-infield talent that has gone in the top five rounds, notably 2015 third-rounder Brandon Lowe and fourth-rounder Kevin Smith in '17. Shaw has a good chance to beat both Terrapins alumni after hitting .332 as a freshman, blasting 22 homers as a sophomore and then greatly enhancing his Draft stock by capturing Cape Cod League MVP honors thanks to a .360/.432/.574 line.

Shaw might be one of the better college hitters in the Draft class. He rarely strikes out and draws walks while making consistently hard contact. He can drive the ball to all fields and he showed off impressive opposite-field power last year for Maryland, with many of his homers going out to right and right-center field. He’s a plus runner who is a legitimate basestealing threat.

Shaw is currently the Terrapins' shortstop, but he’s shown off some defensive versatility, playing second, third and the outfield as a freshman and seeing time on both sides of second on the Cape. A team taking him could certainly send him out as a shortstop, but most feel his arm will push him to second long-term. Wherever he plays, it’s his bat that could get him drafted in the first round.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Develop Arjun well, Toronto.

[CubsLeaf]

At least Shaw hits for a little power.  Other than that, seems like a typical Cubs hitter pick since the Bryant/Baez/Schwarber core fell apart.

[Tim]

8 minutes ago, CubsLeaf said:

At least Shaw hits for a little power.  Other than that, seems like a typical Cubs hitter pick since the Bryant/Baez/Schwarber core fell apart.

I'm a bit confused. What players have they picked in the first round similar to Shaw?

[Outshined_One]

I am so effing jealous of the Marlins' draft so far.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I am so effing jealous of the Marlins' draft so far.

They are absolutely killing it so far.

[Outshined_One]

28 minutes ago, Tim said:

I'm a bit confused. What players have they picked in the first round similar to Shaw?

Prolific college hitter who mashed on the Cape with a rock solid hit tool?

It actually fits the mold for the team's approach to the MLB Draft since Theo took over. And it's not necessarily a bad thing, but where Shaw could end up with Ian Happ's career, it's more fun to dream on a guy like Nimmala.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

5 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Prolific college hitter who mashed on the Cape with a rock solid hit tool?

It actually fits the mold for the team's approach to the MLB Draft since Theo took over. And it's not necessarily a bad thing, but where Shaw could end up with Ian Happ's career, it's more fun to dream on a guy like Nimmala.

Original comment said “since the Báez/Bryant/Schwarber core fell apart.” Shaw is the first hitter they’ve selected in the first round since any and all of those players left the organization.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

19 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They are absolutely killing it so far.

Too much prep pitching for my risk tolerance but they are drafting to their strengths.

I prefer Seattle, Detroit and Cincinnati’s draft so far but Seattle and Cincinnati aren’t fair since they up to 3 picks.

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Original comment said “since the Báez/Bryant/Schwarber core fell apart.” Shaw is the first hitter they’ve selected in the first round since any and all of those players left the organization.

Other than Nico, who is a much, much different hitter.

 

-- edited to add

 

Depending on what was meant by "fall apart"

[CaliforniaRaisin]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

Other than Nico, who is a much, much different hitter.

Nico was drafted in 2018, when that core still had 3 playoff games to go. We’re playing semantics with that “core falling apart” but they’ve only drafted two hitters in the first round since 2018.

[Tim]

Just now, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Nico was drafted in 2018, when that core still had 3 playoff games to go.

Yeah, that's why I made my edit. But just going back in time, we have to get back to 2015 with Happ before there's a guy at all similar.

(Horton, Wicks, Howard, Jensen, Hoerner, Lange, Little)

[Outshined_One]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Nico was drafted in 2018, when that core still had 3 playoff games to go.

I'll agree that the timing of the criticism is off, but the pick definitely feels familiar.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Just now, Tim said:

Yeah, that's why I made my edit. But just going back in time, we have to get back to 2015 with Happ before there's a guy at all similar.

(Horton, Wicks, Howard, Jensen, Hoerner, Lange, Little)

Heh, made a similar edit.

[Tim]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Even still he was a 3 year starting MIF at Stanford with a succcessful CCBL run

Generalize the pick enough and anyone sounds similar. "Hey, they all play baseball!"

[Irrelevant Dude]

7 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'll agree that the timing of the criticism is off, but the pick definitely feels familiar.

I could be off here too, but I think it's more the perception that the Cubs lean toward selecting "high floor" guys in the first round.