What does it mean to sell this year?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've seen a lot of conversation about the Cubs being resigned to selling this year, and I get the impression that a lot of it is a reflex response to previous trade deadlines.  If you aren't buying, you're selling, makes sense.  And I think this also leads to consternation because it creates the idea that not only are things not going to plan(by all accounts the team expected to be better than their current record), but it means a change in their tactics from trying to make the next season more competitive to 'rebuilding' tactics of waiting for a future influx of talent.  But when I look at the current state of things, while it's impossible to argue that things are going to plan, it's also difficult for me to see a big change in the team's approach.  Here's why I think the approach may not match the mental model many people have of selling.

• Last year the team 'sold' to the extent that it traded 3 relievers, 2 of them on expiring deals(and the third's arm immediately exploded).  While there's no doubt they shopped Happ and Contreras, Happ's market never seemed to materialize and they extended him(meaning they clearly prioritized near term productivity), and the closest Contreras came to being dealt was for an MLB starter(just don't look at Urquidy's 2023).  Since that deadline they've added Swanson & Taillon, as well extended the aforementioned Happ and Hoerner, so from a roster build standpoint they're *closer* than 2022 even with the uncertainty surrounding Stroman(more on him in a minute).
• This year's roster doesn't have as many matches to the types that are sold at deadlines.  This year's FA relievers have been a bust, and most of the position player core is under contract for several years and aren't on the downslope of their career.  Mancini might be attractive in different circumstances but he's been poor. Bellinger may prove to be an interesting case, but I suspect he is most similar to Contreras in that his uncertainties will not create a market that outweighs the draft compensation they would get for keeping him.  Plus, as a prime-aged FA they may view keeping him under their roof beneficial for the odds of signing him in the future.
• There are some less common deadline deals that could happen, but those don't really fit the spirit behind 'selling'.  The Effross deal last year is an excellent example, especially in hindsight but even at the time the impact on the 2023 roster of swapping him for Wesneski was thought to be neutral or an improvement.  You could see that type of deal happen again, possibly with a reliever like Merryweather or Hughes, possibly with someone like Wisdom or Morel.  
• But the real litmus test of this deadline season is going to be Stroman.  If the front office likes him and feels an extension is possible, I would be very surprised to see him go.  It's unlikely that extension adds much AAV so the LT impact is minimal, and with the uncertainty in the rest of the rotation(Taillon's struggles, Steele's elbow, Smyly's opt out, Wesneski's inconsistency), simply freeing up his money to use elsewhere is risky given how many holes you'd have to fill.  But if the FO doesn't favor him over the next few years, or they think his desire to stay in Chicago is insincere or his salary demands untenable, then they have a really difficult decision.  They can try to trade him, but as we saw with previous seasons you aren't going to get comparable maker in return(doubly so given Stroman's lesser scouting attributes in size/velo).  But letting him walk for nothing(remember he can't be QO'd) would be an unacceptable drain of resources given the setback that 2023 has been on the whole.  There isn't one right way to do it(maybe he signs and the plan is obvious, maybe a good trade is there to be had, maybe Brown and Horton are great in MLB next year, maybe they want to sign Urias and Ohtani), but I suspect that given how the pieces are laid out, this is possibly the most influential decision Hoyer will have to make in his tenure.

 

So that's too many words on how I see the landscape, but really I started this as a thread so people can get specific on what the approach means to them.  There's no question that it's a bummer the team isn't going to be gearing up for the stretch run at the deadline, and as such it makes sense to try to improve the roster in future seasons.  But given that even the optimists among us thought a playoff spot was uncertain at best in 2023, I think it's worth thinking about what you expect to see happen at the deadline, and what consequences that has (and does not have) for 2024 and beyond.

[CubinNY]

I don't have an opinion, but I have questions

1. Who do they have that other teams want that are worth anything other than a lottery ticket? I guess Stroman. I don't think Bellinger gets them anything. 

2. Would they trade Happ or Nico after signing them to extensions?

3. Would they trade high value prospects for a young ML player(s) who may be a part of their future? A move for the future, not for the present. 

[sneakypower]

there's so much pure, uncut mediocrity throughout the entire organization, top to bottom that it's very hard to dream up scenarios where something inspiring can happen in the foreseeable future

has been this way for a while though tbh

[jersey cubs fan]

Should have gotten rid of Happ when they had the chance, Nico too. 
 

The only selling they will be doing is selling Ricketts on the idea that they should all keep their jobs. This front office is terrible. 

[sneakypower]

11 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Hoyer’s uses the word “holistic” alot when describing the current roster build approach.

this is ultimately his one identifiable skill, impressing people with MBA buzzwords

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, sneakypower said:

there's so much pure, uncut mediocrity throughout the entire organization, top to bottom that it's very hard to dream up scenarios where something inspiring can happen in the foreseeable future

has been this way for a while though tbh

I can find optimism/spin for a fair amount of the MLB circumstances, but yeah I'm the most bummed out by what feels like stagnation when it comes to the prospect pool.  There's good stuff happening, and maybe the weirdness with AA is particularly influential given how many top prospects it touches(PCA, Caissie, Wicks, Brown, Amaya).  But even the guys with the strongest upwards trajectory this year have had their share of odd struggles(e.g. Brown and Horton's disaster outings), and the Iowa cohort has many that have either struggled there(Velazquez, Davis, Kilian, Heuer) or not been able to translate it in call ups(Mervis, Morel, Estrada), which really dims some of the short term hopes for improvement.

[sneakypower]

"hey there's some guys in Iowa putting up pretty nice offensive numbers.."

*Aaron Miles gets sent down and goes 1500 OPS for a month*

[gflore34]

Given  his lackluster to terrible returns do we really want Hoyer making anymore trades?

[UMFan83]

Possible candidates imo:

Leiter, Jr - Cubs could easily keep him too but having a career year and 32 years old...might be better to sell high even if his improvement is sustainable

Hendricks - Final year of deal but team option if he pitches well.  All depends on how well he pitches.  If he pitches well he becomes a somewhat attractive piece.  Otherwise, Cubs will probably just keep him and run out the clock.

Merryweather - Similar to Leiter....he'll be 32 in October and having a solid enough season to potentially get something of use for him

Smyly - Less likely because he has another year on his deal and to TT's point I don't think the Cubs are looking to take a huge step back, but if you get a crazy offer from a SP needy team and it includes MLB or near MLB players, you at least consider it.

Stroman - everyones talked about this enough

Gomes - highly regarded pitch framer having a solid hitting season is bound to have some value for a team needing catching help, though the same questions that Contreras had about adding a catcher mid-season is a factor, plus the Cubs probably plan to have him in a similar role next year.

Mancini - talked about enough, your standard extra low cost bat for a contender.  Was in the same role last year with Houston

Mastrobuoni/Tauchman/Madrigal - I guess?  Don't really have any strong ties to them and if a team is looking for a bat, cya.  Madrigal is probably better keeping and giving regular PT to see if you can get anything from him long term but he's very limited by having an everyday starter at 2B and SS.

Bellinger - covered by TT and I agree with his take

Yeah, after typing all this up, there's definitely not a ton there.  I think you shop most of those guys, if you get a strong offer you take it.  You definitely shop Stroman to see if a SP needy team will throw something crazy at you.  Would be stupid to not at least shop him.

Edited June 9, 2023 by UMFan83

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Leiter Jr is a good call, I could definitely see that with similar motivation as Merryweather(who is a sneaky 31 himself).  I do wonder if the appetite for that will be lower given the pen's responsibility in this year's outcome.  Sure on average you should be able to do that more cheaply than you could find another Wesneski or Brown, but you also need a little bit of a foundation to work from and Thompson's collapse doesn't leave you with a deep stable you're for sure gonna ride into the 2024 pen with.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So long story short we don't have anything anyone would want except Stroman and we would like to keep Stroman 

[Irrelevant Dude]

8 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Should have gotten rid of Happ when they had the chance, Nico too. 

Agree on Happ. He's a decent enough hitter, but not enough power for the position.