Ohtani Trade/Free Agency Thread

[apete6]

This will eventually be a thing, no better time than now after he closed out the WBC and had an outstanding tournament. Here are my thoughts:

 

1. Unless a team has a chance to win a World Series this year (which, thanks to the new rules, is nearly half the league!), I don't see any way they trade for him because the cost will be astronomical and then you ALSO have to give him a preposterous contract.

2. I see no way his contract is less than $400M total value and probably gets to $500M pretty easily.

3. While it would be the most exciting FA signing in the history of baseball, I can't blame any team for not giving him, say 12/$500M. I know everything he has done so far is once is a lifetime and irreplaceable, but I also don't see how he keeps it up for even 5 more years, let alone 12.

4. But if he does sign with the Cubs, my kids will both have a jersey day 1 and it will be very good for the franchise in the short term.

[UMFan83]

Not Jed's kind of signing, though if he ever makes exceptions I'm sure a talent like Ohtani is one of them. I could see Tom seeing the massive appeal of having the biggest star in baseball on his team and nudging Jed to push hard for him, but I just have a hard time seeing us outbidding probably every other big market club for his services.

[PackLandVA]

If the Angels are actually shopping him at the deadline, that to me would assume they’re “out” when it comes to his next contract. Given that, I could see a scenario where they get a haul, but not necessarily an historical haul. If they know they can’t/won’t sign him, to get a great package in a trade might be appealing instead of getting nothing by holding out out for the best deal (which may never come).

[imb]

im not even giving it a second thought. he's just wasted 5 years on the angels. he's not coming here.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A simple and imperfect way of thinking about it. Ohtani is a 140 wRC+ hitter, and I don't see much reason to think he wouldn't be at least passable in RF if he stopped pitching. Given his sprint speed and arm strength he'd probably be at least a little above average. That profile is basically Kyle Tucker and about a 5 win guy over a full season. He'll be 29 when he hits free agency, so you can probably average the Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa(before the injury concerns) deals and have a decent approximation of the value of Ohtani the hitter. *Then* you add in the value of him pitching, which is him being a 5 win TOR starter last year and probably for at least a couple more years, since he's made noise about giving up pitching. A 5 win starter who recently signed a short term deal because his pitching days are coming close to an end sounds a lot like Scherzer. So tack on Scherzer's money to the SS average and you probably can squint and see 10/450? This doesn't exactly work for a few reasons, but it might be a useful starting point.

[Bertz]

The benefit to having such a deep farm is that you should be able to throw $50M/year at an Ohtani and have no problem building out the rest of your roster. There's no excuse to not go full bore after him.

 

That said, Jed's gonna do like Jung Hoo Lee and Lucas Giolito, which is nice but very much not the same.

[UMFan83]

A simple and imperfect way of thinking about it. Ohtani is a 140 wRC+ hitter, and I don't see much reason to think he wouldn't be at least passable in RF if he stopped pitching. Given his sprint speed and arm strength he'd probably be at least a little above average. That profile is basically Kyle Tucker and about a 5 win guy over a full season. He'll be 29 when he hits free agency, so you can probably average the Turner, Bogaerts, and Correa(before the injury concerns) deals and have a decent approximation of the value of Ohtani the hitter. *Then* you add in the value of him pitching, which is him being a 5 win TOR starter last year and probably for at least a couple more years, since he's made noise about giving up pitching. A 5 win starter who recently signed a short term deal because his pitching days are coming close to an end sounds a lot like Scherzer. So tack on Scherzer's money to the SS average and you probably can squint and see 10/450? This doesn't exactly work for a few reasons, but it might be a useful starting point.

 

I have a feeling that due to his unique talents and the fact that he's basically the face of baseball right now, some team is going to throw an offer out there that defies all logic *coughCohencough*.

[SouthSideRyan]

We have no chance.

[Sammy Sofa]

I have a feeling that due to his unique talents and the fact that he's basically the face of baseball right now, some team is going to throw an offer out there that defies all logic *coughCohencough*.

 

Nah, their logic will be sound.

[imb]

make a pitch for him to come to the cubs that isn't just "here's money." Convince the only 1 of 1 baseball player to ever exist to play on a team that's having serious debates this year about "mckinstry or madrigal????"

[jersey cubs fan]

make a pitch for him to come to the cubs that isn't just "here's money." Convince the only 1 of 1 baseball player to ever exist to play on a team that's having serious debates this year about "mckinstry or madrigal????"

The obvious shirts guys will make a fun slogan referencing you on a t shirt

[squally1313]

make a pitch for him to come to the cubs that isn't just "here's money." Convince the only 1 of 1 baseball player to ever exist to play on a team that's having serious debates this year about "mckinstry or madrigal????"

The obvious shirts guys will make a fun slogan referencing you on a t shirt

We will try to limit the amount of people in the bleachers reusing their old Fukudome tshirts and bandanas to a reasonable number.

[apete6]

make a pitch for him to come to the cubs that isn't just "here's money." Convince the only 1 of 1 baseball player to ever exist to play on a team that's having serious debates this year about "mckinstry or madrigal????"

 

I may or may not believe all of this, but here's a bullet point list that I would imagine would be used in the pitch:

 

1. One of probably the 5 most historic franchises in baseball

2. Top 2 baseball market in the US

3. One of the 2 easiest divisions in baseball and an easier road to the postseason

4. Top 5 farm system that will place several prospects in the majors in 2024 and 2025

5. 2023 team just won 82 games and is on the right track

6. We're also going to sign another big free agent to help out (Giolito? Matt Chapman?)

7. Positive reviews of the organization and how they take care of players/families (nutrition, training, helping acclimate to Chicago, etc.)

[jersey cubs fan]

make a pitch for him to come to the cubs that isn't just "here's money." Convince the only 1 of 1 baseball player to ever exist to play on a team that's having serious debates this year about "mckinstry or madrigal????"

 

I may or may not believe all of this, but here's a bullet point list that I would imagine would be used in the pitch:

 

1. One of probably the 5 most historic franchises in baseball

2. Top 2 baseball market in the US

3. One of the 2 easiest divisions in baseball and an easier road to the postseason

4. Top 5 farm system that will place several prospects in the majors in 2024 and 2025

5. 2023 team just won 82 games and is on the right track

6. We're also going to sign another big free agent to help out (Giolito? Matt Chapman?)

7. Positive reviews of the organization and how they take care of players/families (nutrition, training, helping acclimate to Chicago, etc.)

I don’t think anybody outside the Chicagoland area believes 2 to be accurate. And not many agree with 4. Major leaguers also probably don’t care about that. 5 is meaningless and 6 would have to be a prove it scenario.

 

1 and 7 are really what you have to hang your hat on and that’s touchy-feely stuff that may or may not sway a player.

[squally1313]

Yeah 2 and 7 might disqualify the bottom half of the league, maybe even two thirds, but they were never going to consider throwing this kind of money around anyways. The teams you are actually competing with are all going to be able to offer those things, and we're probably trailing most of them in the rest of your list.

[champaignchris]

My pessimistic/optimistic take is that maybe everybody else will be so focused on Ohtani that the Cubs can sign Julio Urias for under market value.

[apete6]

My pessimistic/optimistic take is that maybe everybody else will be so focused on Ohtani that the Cubs can sign Julio Urias for under market value.

 

I'd love it. Not sure how much they'll be willing to go down that road after the Addison Russell fiasco, though.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2850051-dodgers-julio-urias-suspended-20-games-for-violating-domestic-violence-policy