Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[WrigleyField 22]

Okay, got my first mock of the offseason already. PFF just dropped their top 100 FA list, which includes salary estimates for all 100.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

So I used all of their contract estimates, and then ran a PFF Mock Draft as well;

 

Pre-Free Agency

 

Resign David Montgomery - 3 years, 19.5M, 12.25M guaranteed, 4.5M signing bonus

 

Free Agency

 

Wave 1:

Da'Ron Payne - DT - 4y, 80M, 55M G, 16M s.b.

- Best FA at a major need. Just splurge and do it

Mike McGlinchey - RT - 4y, 62M, 37.25M G, 12M s.b.

- Bit better as a run blocker than pass blocker, but should raise OL floor considerably and put Borom as a swing T

Zach Allen - DT - 3y - 37.5M, 26M G, 9M s.b.

- The need multiple bodies on that D front. I am not done yet....

 

Wave 2:

Ethan Pocic - C - 3y, 21M, 11 G, 4.5M s.b.

- Fire Mustipher into the sun

Arden Key - DE - 2y, 18.5M, 11 G, 7M s.b.

Samson Ebukam - DE - 3y, 30.75M, 20 G, 7.5M s.b.

- Little bit of a volume approach here at DE. hopefully with DT pressure, everyone's job is easier. Both have good underlying pressure metrics and are young.

 

Wave 3:

Bobby Okereke - LB - 3y, 25.5M, 15.75 G, 4.5M s.b.

Parris Campbell - WR - 3yr, 23.25M, 13.25 G, 4.5M s.b.

-Flus gets a couple Indy connections. Need another WR body and Cambell can line up wide an in slot. Okereke would be instant fit in Flus' D, obviously.

 

The grand total of this FA spree (+ Montgomery) is 97.25M in APY contacts. I worked out the structure on each so that on average 71% or ~70M hits in year 1, but year 1 cash would be ~$116M. This should put them on track to meet their cash minimum, but also keeps them well within their current 82M of effective cap space without any restructures/cuts of current deals.

 

Minor Re-signings at/near minimum:

RFA: Mustipher, Evans (possibly just at minimum and not the actual RFA tender)

ERFA: Blackwell, Eiselen

Other: Scales, Houston-Carson, Blasingame, Adams, other vet min as needed

 

Extensions (my own estimates, not PFF)

Darnell Mooney - WR - 4y, 67M, 34 G, 8M s.b.

Cole Kmet - 4y, 56M, 32 G, 6M s.b.

 

This adds a very de-minimis current year additional hit of 2.8M, but additional cash of $14M which together with draft class and other minimum spending, should get them to where they need to be.

 

Looking ahead to 2024, they'd have about 89M in future guarantees committed, but most of those would be through 2024 only. With a cap likely to bump another 20M+, they'd still be a Jackson and Whitehair cut away (in 2024) from having another 60-70M of cap room - hopefully in preparation for some key extensions and to be fairly active in 2024 FA as needed.

 

Draft:

Trade 1.1 to Indy for 4, 35, 79, and 2024 FRP

 

1.4. Will Anderson - DE - Alabama

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/will-anderson-jr-088fb540-2ac2-474f-a7b0-579774d3aac6/

-This could easily be Carter as well. Or another Edge if they end up trading past 4. I think I like Anderson > Carter though. But its a deep edge class and there'd definitely be opportunity to still grab a good edge prospect later if they go Carter.

 

2.35. Josh Downs - WR - UNC

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/josh-downs-a427aa10-9e49-4f91-8e1c-047aec5e7dad/

-Pure slot player, but has good contested catch stats, despite small size

 

2.54. John Michael Schmitz - IOL - Minnesota

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/john-michael-schmitz-fa90a077-99ef-4bfe-8098-51e330a595fa/

-Just a good value. With signing Pocic at C, I think one will be able to move to LG

 

3.64. Tuli Tuipulotu - DL - USC

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/tuli-tuipulotu-6bc6cfe5-5d04-427a-a1d1-07b1518d1376/

-May be able to provide versatility at DE and slide down to 3T.

 

3.79. Jordan Battle - S - Alabama

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jordan-battle-c65538c1-e8a3-4bd4-bfaa-0e18ed0ae63c/

-Can you ever go wrong with Bama safeties?

 

4.103. Kendre Miller - HB - TCU

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/kendre-miller-6a7c7ee5-2c64-45e8-806a-bbc9598399f0/

- Should definitely add to RB room as I was unimpressed with Ebner and Evans is JAG

 

5.137. Riley Moss - CB - Iowa

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/riley-moss-3f7f331e-87f5-4616-9de2-7df3a2a99075/

- Some question is a move to safety is needed, but has good PFF grades. Probably other CB options too - and I think one other prospect is needed for the group.

 

5.150. Ivan Pace Jr - ILB - Cincinnati

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/ivan-pace-jr-1a2b51af-d229-49f0-ae88-f7317533c7cf/

- Really like the write-ups of this guy - especially in Rd 5. Biggest knock is height. Let him and Sanborn battle it out for Mike role.

 

7.199. Keytaon Thompson - WR -Virginia

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/keytaon-thompson-7a88839c-506f-4ddc-bcb6-f69c1c738fd4/

- Just a flier on a versatile weapon. Project and likely Practice Squad candidate

 

7.220. Jaren Hall - QB - BYU

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jaren-hall-eec1d832-6937-47b1-8e71-aa8ae403ff9a/

- Athletic and Toolsy QB prospect as possible long term backup, but needs at least a year on Practice Squad.

 

Final Depth (filled in with minimum depth pieces where needed)

QB- Fields - Sieman - Hall*

RB- Montgomery - Herbert - Evans - Miller* - Ebner

FB- Blasingame

TE- Kmet - Tonges

WRX- Claypool - St. Brown

WRZ- Mooney - Jones - Thompson*

Slot- Campbell+ - Downs*

LT- Jones - Leatherwood

LG- Schmitz* - Whitehair (likely cut or pay-reduction)

C- Pocic+ - Patrick - Mustipher - Kramer

RG- Jenkins - Carter - Eiselen

RT- McGlinchy+, Borom

 

DE- Anderson*, Key+, Ebukam+, Gipson, Robinson, Muhammad

DL- Tuipulotu*

NT- Payne+

DT- Allen+, Jones

WLB - Okereke+, Weatherford

MLB - Sanborn, Pace*

SAM - Adams

CB - Johnson, Gordon, Jones, Moss*

NB - Vildor, Blackwell (possibly Gordon bumped inside)

FS - Jackson, Battle*

SS - Brisker, Houston Carson, Hicks

 

Specialists: Scales, Santos, Gill. Velus Jones as KR - need to figure out a PR... Pettis might get a job back over St. Brown - or find a CB who can.

 

DL and OL hit hard. Can't complain about that. One thing I will say, is it seems like overkill at C. If I'm drafting Schmitz, I'm putting him at C. I understand if he's not ready Day 1 to play C, but I wouldn't play him at LG. I'd let him snap it and leave him there. Of course, you might need to add a LG in that case because Whitehair and Patrick have shown they aren't good enough there. Also, Mustipher seems like overkill. Just don't tender him, because you know all those guys will get hurt in training camp and Mustipher will start all 17 games again.

 

Also, I refuse to believe Moss is a CB. I know he has great speed, but he is white.

Yea I mean on the Schmitz part, obviously they arent going to know in March who they're picking at 54. And as the top C he could certainly be gone by then, so I don't think you can pencil him in before FA. I went back and forth between Pocic and Risner for a IOL FA add. I just wish I had more faith in Patrick, but I really don't want him or Mustipher as a de facto starter at C. Wish it was a better IOL FA class, or a guy with at least some potential C/G versatility. Re Mustipher being overkill, he'd be on a unguaranteed deal (whether the tender or just waived and resigned at the minimum). But yea probably need a vet G minimum flier instead of or in addition to. Need a vet NT too to backup Payne. I think Pocic may have some G experience so maybe he could slide there but I deferred as the vet to C.

 

lol at Moss. I figured with that name he was, but made that pick before looking up a picture. Anyways the heir to Jason Sehorn's legacy will arrive one day!

[WrigleyField 22]

Don't really want to drop below 10... But Titans would definitely need to be a haul type scenario and either that 2024 or 2025 FRP could be a top 5 pick.

 

11, 41, 2024 1+2, 2025 1+2... Not even sure that's enough honestly.

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Riley Moss has some incredible ball skills and great instincts on run plays. I think he's going to be a safety at the next level.

[Bertz]

I don't know enough non-star players to do a fully detailed offseason, but I think my broad strokes offseason would look like:

 

- Star level FA investments in LT (Brown or McGlinchey), and the D-Line (Payne or Hargrave?)

- ~$10Mish investments in RB, OG, and WR. Something like Josh Jacobs, Seumalo, and Michael Thomas

- Use as much of the remaining ~$30M on depth defensive players as you can, with the exception of maybe an extension or two

- Trade back with the Colts to #4, netting a '23 2nd and 3rd among other future picks

- Take Anderson or Carter at 4 (Anderson seems more likely). Among your four Day 2 picks add another WR, OL, and TE (not a huge need but apparently it's a great TE draft)

- Use that last Day 2 pick and everything from Day 3 on defense

 

The offense should be very good right from the jump. There's no true #1 WR but there's everything else you could possibly want. The defense I imagine will eventually be pretty good, but probably quite weak early on. I think plugging various holes with better than replacement level players will improve it immediately over '22, but given that so much of the resource investment is youths, I'd totally buy a trajectory like the ~25th ranked defense in the NFL in the first half of the season and the 10th in the second half. Overall a good team (and enough depth that I think fairly high floor), but to be great Fields needs to take another step forward or Poles has to nail this draft.

[raw]

Yea I mean on the Schmitz part, obviously they arent going to know in March who they're picking at 54. And as the top C he could certainly be gone by then, so I don't think you can pencil him in before FA. I went back and forth between Pocic and Risner for a IOL FA add. I just wish I had more faith in Patrick, but I really don't want him or Mustipher as a de facto starter at C. Wish it was a better IOL FA class, or a guy with at least some potential C/G versatility. Re Mustipher being overkill, he'd be on a unguaranteed deal (whether the tender or just waived and resigned at the minimum). But yea probably need a vet G minimum flier instead of or in addition to. Need a vet NT too to backup Payne. I think Pocic may have some G experience so maybe he could slide there but I deferred as the vet to C.

 

lol at Moss. I figured with that name he was, but made that pick before looking up a picture. Anyways the heir to Jason Sehorn's legacy will arrive one day!

 

Pocic is from Chicago right? I know he went to Illinois. The local tie makes him a possibility, but I've always operated under the assumption they would give Patrick a shot to play the position he was brought in to play last year. Broke his hand in camp, then finally started at C and got hurt like 9 plays into it. That being said, he was a swing type player in GB so it's not an unfamiliar role for him. I prefer Risner. I'm surprised his projected contract is so reasonable per PFF (like 7M AAV). He seems to be a pretty solid guard.

[UMFan83]

Don't really want to drop below 10... But Titans would definitely need to be a haul type scenario and either that 2024 or 2025 FRP could be a top 5 pick.

 

11, 41, 2024 1+2, 2025 1+2... Not even sure that's enough honestly.

 

 

I don't hate a scenario that forces us into a position to draft the best WR available. To be clear its not my preference and obviously the Bears need multiple playmakers on the DLine and OLine, but I keep thinking about the Bengals WR trio of Chase, Higgins and Boyd with a solid TE option and meh line and then think about how good the Bears projected WRs would be if everyone slid down a spot...Chase as a Z wide receiver and Mooney in the slot with a true X in JSN or Reed or whoever the best WR is projected to be. I'd prefer a no doubt game changing pass rusher like Anderson, but if we can get the top WR and pick up a 2nd plus 2 more first round picks, I'd consider it.

Edited February 3, 2023 by UMFan83

[raw]

Riley Moss has some incredible ball skills and great instincts on run plays. I think he's going to be a safety at the next level.

 

Multiple pick 6's against my Hoosiers last year. I agree on the safety thing, and not because he's white. LOL. I think he seems a little stiff to turn and run, and I think you can take advantage of his ball skills and long speed at FS and letting him just break downhill on the ball. That being said, the Bears are zone heavy, so I think he could be an outside CB in a zone scheme.

[Splendid Splinter]

Don't really want to drop below 10... But Titans would definitely need to be a haul type scenario and either that 2024 or 2025 FRP could be a top 5 pick.

 

11, 41, 2024 1+2, 2025 1+2... Not even sure that's enough honestly.

 

 

I feel like Titans would be that 2nd team we traded down to get as many picks as possible if they went that route. Like say we traded with Colts at 4 and Poles isn't completely enamored with Carter/Anderson and Titans wanted to get whoever left of the top 3 QBs. I can see that happening. Same thing with Carolina at 9.

 

Although first 2 picks for 3 years is pretty enticing although I agree that they probably have to throw in another pick or 2 with Bears throwing in 1-2 picks with the 1st their way. Like their 2023 3rd and we throw like 2023 5th and 2024 5th or something along that line.

[raw]

I don't know enough non-star players to do a fully detailed offseason, but I think my broad strokes offseason would look like:

 

- Star level FA investments in LT (Brown or McGlinchey), and the D-Line (Payne or Hargrave?)

- ~$10Mish investments in RB, OG, and WR. Something like Josh Jacobs, Seumalo, and Michael Thomas

- Use as much of the remaining ~$30M on depth defensive players as you can, with the exception of maybe an extension or two

- Trade back with the Colts to #4, netting a '23 2nd and 3rd among other future picks

- Take Anderson or Carter at 4 (Anderson seems more likely). Among your four Day 2 picks add another WR, OL, and TE (not a huge need but apparently it's a great TE draft)

- Use that last Day 2 pick and everything from Day 3 on defense

 

The offense should be very good right from the jump. There's no true #1 WR but there's everything else you could possibly want. The defense I imagine will eventually be pretty good, but probably quite weak early on. I think plugging various holes with better than replacement level players will improve it immediately over '22, but given that so much of the resource investment is youths, I'd totally buy a trajectory like the ~25th ranked defense in the NFL in the first half of the season and the 10th in the second half. Overall a good team (and enough depth that I think fairly high floor), but to be great Fields needs to take another step forward or Poles has to nail this draft.

 

IDK if you meant RT, but I think Jones is set at LT. I think this regime loves him and he was their handpicked player on the OL. He had no real competition for snaps as a 5th round rookie, I doubt he will be moved after a full season of near adequate play.

 

But I agree in general. I think the 1 big investment would be at DT. They tried to get a 3-tech last year with no money, deep FA class, even more money, arguably biggest need. No brainer. IDK if they'll make a star investment at OL. Those are really the only 2 (Brown, McGlinchey). I don't think Brown is a fit. McGlinchey will have a lot of suitors in the Shanahan tree. So, I think by default they may have to go to the 10M investment level on the OL, maybe even a couple of them.

 

15M+ DT

10M- OG, OT, WR, maybe 1 wildcard position (RB or CB)

6-9M- DE, maybe a LB

Then depth signings everywhere else.

 

While I like Anderson much better than Carter, I like DEs 2-10 MUCH better than DTs 2-5. Ideal would be trade back, get an early 2nd. Get Carter, OL, offensive weapon, and DE with the first 4 picks in top 65. Day 3, add another OL, another offensive weapon, a LB, and a CB

[Splendid Splinter]

Don't really want to drop below 10... But Titans would definitely need to be a haul type scenario and either that 2024 or 2025 FRP could be a top 5 pick.

 

11, 41, 2024 1+2, 2025 1+2... Not even sure that's enough honestly.

 

 

I feel like Titans would be that 2nd team we traded down to get as many picks as possible if they went that route. Like say we traded with Colts at 4 and Poles isn't completely enamored with Carter/Anderson and Titans wanted to get whoever left of the top 3 QBs. I can see that happening. Same thing with Carolina at 9.

 

Although first 2 picks for 3 years is pretty enticing although I agree that they probably have to throw in another pick or 2 with Bears throwing in 1-2 picks with the 1st their way. Like their 2023 3rd and we throw like 2023 5th and 2024 5th or something along that line.

 

[attachment=0]pff_mock_results.png[/attachment]

 

I did this mock just to see what kind of picks we would stockpile if we traded down twice. In this case, it was to 4 then 9. Bears ended up with a pick in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in 2024 while also gaining a 2- 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year. Poles would have a ton of ammo to do whatever he wants. Could trade down for more present/future picks, move up into the end of 1st (most likely) or any other rounds. This is pretty much a best case scenario and I don't think anything like this has ever happened before or at least not within the top 10 so wouldn't count on it.

[pitchcs]

Yea I mean on the Schmitz part, obviously they arent going to know in March who they're picking at 54. And as the top C he could certainly be gone by then, so I don't think you can pencil him in before FA. I went back and forth between Pocic and Risner for a IOL FA add. I just wish I had more faith in Patrick, but I really don't want him or Mustipher as a de facto starter at C. Wish it was a better IOL FA class, or a guy with at least some potential C/G versatility. Re Mustipher being overkill, he'd be on a unguaranteed deal (whether the tender or just waived and resigned at the minimum). But yea probably need a vet G minimum flier instead of or in addition to. Need a vet NT too to backup Payne. I think Pocic may have some G experience so maybe he could slide there but I deferred as the vet to C.

 

lol at Moss. I figured with that name he was, but made that pick before looking up a picture. Anyways the heir to Jason Sehorn's legacy will arrive one day!

 

Pocic is from Chicago right? I know he went to Illinois. The local tie makes him a possibility, but I've always operated under the assumption they would give Patrick a shot to play the position he was brought in to play last year. Broke his hand in camp, then finally started at C and got hurt like 9 plays into it. That being said, he was a swing type player in GB so it's not an unfamiliar role for him. I prefer Risner. I'm surprised his projected contract is so reasonable per PFF (like 7M AAV). He seems to be a pretty solid guard.

 

Pocic brothers are from Lemont, but it was Graham who went to Illinois. Ethan went to LSU.

[jumbo]

Guess there's now speculation the Commanders may not franchise Payne, regardless of his status. I wonder if Poles is going to target him at all, as many here have written and, I agree, Poles is going not only looking for quality but, value as well. May not sit well with the fans however, if he's able to identify, for example, DL's who are about to break out. It'll not only pay dividends on the field but, allow for financial flexibility should the Bears get to the point where they're one big money player away from being Super Bowl contenders.

 

I will be royally pissed if we do not sign Payne if he's available. Clear need, young proven stud, lots of space. Guys like him don't hit the market more often than not. Can't afford to punt two offseasons in a row on some absurd value principle.

 

It's not absurd at all. And there will be 30 other teams trying to sign him. It makes no sense to be pissed off if Payne decides to pick Miami over playing over Chicago or something. Just setting yourself up to be disappointed. But yeah, I explained the value thing. I don't think you are clear on what I am saying. Value does not mean, cheap.

 

I get what you're saying. I realize he can choose another destination and every GM will have his limit as far as what they would spend on player X out there. I should have said I'd be pissed if they don't make a serious run at him or whoever the top players are that actually hit FA. We have the need at almost every position and the money and need to be flexible and add the best talent available. I'd rather pay the top player at their position and set the market (or non-Donald market in this case) than overpay a second tier player that you're dreaming on turning into the guy.

 

Not really in response to anything, but I didn't intend to say that the Bears are cheap. I think they've spent plenty and let their GMs do what they want. I never bought the meddling owner conspriacy that is out there either.

[knoblejr]

Which quarterbacks are you interested in the bears taking in the draft, and where? With Fields already getting battered, and his punishing style of play, you have to keep the supply chain of backups rolling. I have no interest in veterans. Maybe you get lucky and draft a guy you can trade down the line.

 

I understand where you are coming from but I don't think the Bears have the luxury of using draft capital on a QB too many other holes to fill that are more likely to impact the team next year. Maybe a 7th if one makes sense or UDFA

 

I agree we shouldn-t use draft capital but if a guy that is worth a look goes undrafted we should bring him in as an UDFA. If we want to have another mobile QB Malik Cunningham would be worth a look or this division 2 kid looks solid https://www.draftdive.com/tyson-bagent-scouting-report/

[raw]

Dealing with some insomnia and just thinking out loud a bit. So, I was completely wrong about what the Texans would do. I thought for sure they A) wouldn't hire a 3rd straight black coach or B) a 3rd straight black coach wouldn't accept a job he could get fired from in a year that the organization didn't even try to win. But I didn't take into account DeMeco Ryans being a former Texan player and team leader. I also assumed they wouldn't go with another black QB after the Deshaun Watson debacle, which only left Will Levis as a legit option for them early in the draft.

 

But with Ryans, I don't think they'd shy away from a black QB fearing that he could be a rapist. And Ryans, coincedentally, went to Bama where one of the top QBs went, obviously in Bryce Young. From the rumors, it doesn't really sound like the Colts are big on Bryce Young and may prefer Levis or Stroud. That being said, they don't even have a coach yet, so they don't even know what type of offense they would run. But the Ryans hire could take away the Colts incentive to trade for #1 if they don't feel the Texans would take their guy.

[BigbadB]

Dealing with some insomnia and just thinking out loud a bit. So, I was completely wrong about what the Texans would do. I thought for sure they A) wouldn't hire a 3rd straight black coach or B) a 3rd straight black coach wouldn't accept a job he could get fired from in a year that the organization didn't even try to win. But I didn't take into account DeMeco Ryans being a former Texan player and team leader. I also assumed they wouldn't go with another black QB after the Deshaun Watson debacle, which only left Will Levis as a legit option for them early in the draft.

 

But with Ryans, I don't think they'd shy away from a black QB fearing that he could be a rapist. And Ryans, coincedentally, went to Bama where one of the top QBs went, obviously in Bryce Young. From the rumors, it doesn't really sound like the Colts are big on Bryce Young and may prefer Levis or Stroud. That being said, they don't even have a coach yet, so they don't even know what type of offense they would run. But the Ryans hire could take away the Colts incentive to trade for #1 if they don't feel the Texans would take their guy.

 

I think Indy has to trade up. They risk getting the 4th best QB if they sit still. Houston is taking a QB. Bears are trading down with someone. AZ could trade down also if they are offered a crazy package for the 3rd pick and the last of the top 3 QB prospects.

 

I think the Indy pick is one of the best picks the Bears can get. They have a chance to get the best player in the draft this year and next year as I think the Colts will have a tough year. If I'm Poles, I try to get as much out of Indy as I can. If AZ doesn't trade down and takes the guy the Bears covet, they can then consider dropping back again to the team that wants that last top QB prospect. In other words, I feel like the Bears will be in another great spot to trade back a second time (or even a third time if they swapped with Houston, although highly unlikely).

[minnesotacubsfan]

nvm...my own insomnia is kicking in. its going around, must be tax season

[raw]

Dealing with some insomnia and just thinking out loud a bit. So, I was completely wrong about what the Texans would do. I thought for sure they A) wouldn't hire a 3rd straight black coach or B) a 3rd straight black coach wouldn't accept a job he could get fired from in a year that the organization didn't even try to win. But I didn't take into account DeMeco Ryans being a former Texan player and team leader. I also assumed they wouldn't go with another black QB after the Deshaun Watson debacle, which only left Will Levis as a legit option for them early in the draft.

 

But with Ryans, I don't think they'd shy away from a black QB fearing that he could be a rapist. And Ryans, coincedentally, went to Bama where one of the top QBs went, obviously in Bryce Young. From the rumors, it doesn't really sound like the Colts are big on Bryce Young and may prefer Levis or Stroud. That being said, they don't even have a coach yet, so they don't even know what type of offense they would run. But the Ryans hire could take away the Colts incentive to trade for #1 if they don't feel the Texans would take their guy.

 

I think Indy has to trade up. They risk getting the 4th best QB if they sit still. Houston is taking a QB. Bears are trading down with someone. AZ could trade down also if they are offered a crazy package for the 3rd pick and the last of the top 3 QB prospects.

 

I think the Indy pick is one of the best picks the Bears can get. They have a chance to get the best player in the draft this year and next year as I think the Colts will have a tough year. If I'm Poles, I try to get as much out of Indy as I can. If AZ doesn't trade down and takes the guy the Bears covet, they can then consider dropping back again to the team that wants that last top QB prospect. In other words, I feel like the Bears will be in another great spot to trade back a second time (or even a third time if they swapped with Houston, although highly unlikely).

 

Yeah, Colts are an ideal trade partner. It makes so much sense. Division foe that needs a QB is sitting at 2. Years of vet QBs who haven't worked out. Likely going with an offensive coach (thinking Eagles OC gets the job, hence why no hire yet). They really need an identity as a franchise. And they have had good luck (pun intended) with drafting QBs at #1. Plus from the Bears perspective, they could be top 10 bad again next year. Also, as you said, if the Bears really like Carter and/or Anderson it gives them a shot to get either with a trade back.

 

That being said, I think Carolina has close to the same level of desperation. Even down to a division foe potentially getting the QB they want as Tampa and Atlanta could trade up as well (NO has no 1st). Less obvious path to their division foe getting their guy, but also less obvious path to actually sit still and get their guy than the Colts. And if moving down from 1 to 9, you're talking potentially getting an absolute mint for the pick. Poles said he wants value, and if he's not sold on the top guys in this draft, this could be a more desirable trade.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yea, quantity is a quality.

[knoblejr]

thoughts on adding another corner in the draft? I love this kid from Utah https://www.draftdive.com/clark-phillips-iii-scouting-report/

[Rex Buckingham]

Dealing with some insomnia and just thinking out loud a bit. So, I was completely wrong about what the Texans would do. I thought for sure they A) wouldn't hire a 3rd straight black coach or B) a 3rd straight black coach wouldn't accept a job he could get fired from in a year that the organization didn't even try to win. But I didn't take into account DeMeco Ryans being a former Texan player and team leader. I also assumed they wouldn't go with another black QB after the Deshaun Watson debacle, which only left Will Levis as a legit option for them early in the draft.

 

But with Ryans, I don't think they'd shy away from a black QB fearing that he could be a rapist. And Ryans, coincedentally, went to Bama where one of the top QBs went, obviously in Bryce Young. From the rumors, it doesn't really sound like the Colts are big on Bryce Young and may prefer Levis or Stroud. That being said, they don't even have a coach yet, so they don't even know what type of offense they would run. But the Ryans hire could take away the Colts incentive to trade for #1 if they don't feel the Texans would take their guy.

 

I think Indy has to trade up. They risk getting the 4th best QB if they sit still. Houston is taking a QB. Bears are trading down with someone. AZ could trade down also if they are offered a crazy package for the 3rd pick and the last of the top 3 QB prospects.

 

I think the Indy pick is one of the best picks the Bears can get. They have a chance to get the best player in the draft this year and next year as I think the Colts will have a tough year. If I'm Poles, I try to get as much out of Indy as I can. If AZ doesn't trade down and takes the guy the Bears covet, they can then consider dropping back again to the team that wants that last top QB prospect. In other words, I feel like the Bears will be in another great spot to trade back a second time (or even a third time if they swapped with Houston, although highly unlikely).

 

Yeah, Colts are an ideal trade partner. It makes so much sense. Division foe that needs a QB is sitting at 2. Years of vet QBs who haven't worked out. Likely going with an offensive coach (thinking Eagles OC gets the job, hence why no hire yet). They really need an identity as a franchise. And they have had good luck (pun intended) with drafting QBs at #1. Plus from the Bears perspective, they could be top 10 bad again next year. Also, as you said, if the Bears really like Carter and/or Anderson it gives them a shot to get either with a trade back.

 

That being said, I think Carolina has close to the same level of desperation. Even down to a division foe potentially getting the QB they want as Tampa and Atlanta could trade up as well (NO has no 1st). Less obvious path to their division foe getting their guy, but also less obvious path to actually sit still and get their guy than the Colts. And if moving down from 1 to 9, you're talking potentially getting an absolute mint for the pick. Poles said he wants value, and if he's not sold on the top guys in this draft, this could be a more desirable trade.

 

Feel like if they go to 9, they're getting 2 picks in each of 24 and 25 in addition to 9 and hopefully Carolina's 2 this year. Then I would guess they pick up an OT (Johnson? Skoronski?) Or maybe the 1st receiver off the board. Think they could get a solid pass rusher in the 2nd.

[jumbo]

Dealing with some insomnia and just thinking out loud a bit. So, I was completely wrong about what the Texans would do. I thought for sure they A) wouldn't hire a 3rd straight black coach or B) a 3rd straight black coach wouldn't accept a job he could get fired from in a year that the organization didn't even try to win. But I didn't take into account DeMeco Ryans being a former Texan player and team leader. I also assumed they wouldn't go with another black QB after the Deshaun Watson debacle, which only left Will Levis as a legit option for them early in the draft.

 

But with Ryans, I don't think they'd shy away from a black QB fearing that he could be a rapist. And Ryans, coincedentally, went to Bama where one of the top QBs went, obviously in Bryce Young. From the rumors, it doesn't really sound like the Colts are big on Bryce Young and may prefer Levis or Stroud. That being said, they don't even have a coach yet, so they don't even know what type of offense they would run. But the Ryans hire could take away the Colts incentive to trade for #1 if they don't feel the Texans would take their guy.

 

I think Indy has to trade up. They risk getting the 4th best QB if they sit still. Houston is taking a QB. Bears are trading down with someone. AZ could trade down also if they are offered a crazy package for the 3rd pick and the last of the top 3 QB prospects.

 

I think the Indy pick is one of the best picks the Bears can get. They have a chance to get the best player in the draft this year and next year as I think the Colts will have a tough year. If I'm Poles, I try to get as much out of Indy as I can. If AZ doesn't trade down and takes the guy the Bears covet, they can then consider dropping back again to the team that wants that last top QB prospect. In other words, I feel like the Bears will be in another great spot to trade back a second time (or even a third time if they swapped with Houston, although highly unlikely).

 

Yeah, Colts are an ideal trade partner. It makes so much sense. Division foe that needs a QB is sitting at 2. Years of vet QBs who haven't worked out. Likely going with an offensive coach (thinking Eagles OC gets the job, hence why no hire yet). They really need an identity as a franchise. And they have had good luck (pun intended) with drafting QBs at #1. Plus from the Bears perspective, they could be top 10 bad again next year. Also, as you said, if the Bears really like Carter and/or Anderson it gives them a shot to get either with a trade back.

 

That being said, I think Carolina has close to the same level of desperation. Even down to a division foe potentially getting the QB they want as Tampa and Atlanta could trade up as well (NO has no 1st). Less obvious path to their division foe getting their guy, but also less obvious path to actually sit still and get their guy than the Colts. And if moving down from 1 to 9, you're talking potentially getting an absolute mint for the pick. Poles said he wants value, and if he's not sold on the top guys in this draft, this could be a more desirable trade.

 

I've thought about this and wondering how much less Poles might take to stay at 4 with Indy versus trading further down. Similar idea to Houston.

The only reason I wondered this is because of teams not being in love enough with a clear top QB to pay up for the trade. But, as they say, it just takes one, so they'll likely be able to make some kind of trade. If they can get firsts in 24 and 25 with some other picks I think you just have to do it. Carter and Anderson are still prospects who have to pan out and I don't think you can give up that opportunity for either of them.

[UMFan83]

 

I think Indy has to trade up. They risk getting the 4th best QB if they sit still. Houston is taking a QB. Bears are trading down with someone. AZ could trade down also if they are offered a crazy package for the 3rd pick and the last of the top 3 QB prospects.

 

I think the Indy pick is one of the best picks the Bears can get. They have a chance to get the best player in the draft this year and next year as I think the Colts will have a tough year. If I'm Poles, I try to get as much out of Indy as I can. If AZ doesn't trade down and takes the guy the Bears covet, they can then consider dropping back again to the team that wants that last top QB prospect. In other words, I feel like the Bears will be in another great spot to trade back a second time (or even a third time if they swapped with Houston, although highly unlikely).

 

Yeah, Colts are an ideal trade partner. It makes so much sense. Division foe that needs a QB is sitting at 2. Years of vet QBs who haven't worked out. Likely going with an offensive coach (thinking Eagles OC gets the job, hence why no hire yet). They really need an identity as a franchise. And they have had good luck (pun intended) with drafting QBs at #1. Plus from the Bears perspective, they could be top 10 bad again next year. Also, as you said, if the Bears really like Carter and/or Anderson it gives them a shot to get either with a trade back.

 

That being said, I think Carolina has close to the same level of desperation. Even down to a division foe potentially getting the QB they want as Tampa and Atlanta could trade up as well (NO has no 1st). Less obvious path to their division foe getting their guy, but also less obvious path to actually sit still and get their guy than the Colts. And if moving down from 1 to 9, you're talking potentially getting an absolute mint for the pick. Poles said he wants value, and if he's not sold on the top guys in this draft, this could be a more desirable trade.

 

I've thought about this and wondering how much less Poles might take to stay at 4 with Indy versus trading further down. Similar idea to Houston.

The only reason I wondered this is because of teams not being in love enough with a clear top QB to pay up for the trade. But, as they say, it just takes one, so they'll likely be able to make some kind of trade. If they can get firsts in 24 and 25 with some other picks I think you just have to do it. Carter and Anderson are still prospects who have to pan out and I don't think you can give up that opportunity for either of them.

 

I'm not convinced that Houston is going to make a play for #1 overall unless they have absolute conviction in one of the QBs and are concerned another team is going to take them at #1. But there doesn't seem to be a consensus between Young and Stroud (and some Levis chatter), so I don't think they'd hate staying at 2 and taking the 2nd guy rather than giving up significant assets to move up a spot. We'll see.

 

I'm torn between the idea of taking less to only move down to 4 and picking an Anderson/Carter, and trading down a little farther for more and going after OT or WR. I mentioned this before but I really don't hate the idea of taking the top WR and pushing Claypool and Mooney down one spot to have an actual strong WR group for Fields. FA decisions might push me in one way or the other.

 

The idea of trading down twice and getting a haul seems logical on the surface but I'll believe it when I see it. Just seems too good to be true.

[raw]

Yeah, it's really tough to think about what happens if the Bears do trade down beyond the 4th pick. I think we all assume they like Carter and/or Anderson, but maybe they don't. And maybe if they do, they may have other prospects who they think are close. But if you trade all the way to 9, you might lose the other top DEs (Murphy, Wilson). It may be too early for WR, though maybe Johnston runs a 4.35 and is high pointing the crap out of the ball in workouts. It may be too early for OL, especially if they are dead set on Braxton Jones at LT. Or if they think Skoronski is more of a guard and they fill holes on the OL in free agency. Maybe they take a top CB, but I think most of us would hate a top pick used on CB 2 years in a row when they have bigger needs.

[UK]

I don't want them trading past 2, IMO.

 

Let's say they're lucky enough to sign Payne, Anderson becomes the no-brainer to put next to him. Follow up with a 1 technique via FA/draft and 3/4th of that line is solid. Depth is improved as well with Jones, etc. going further down the depth chart.

 

Similar to the Oline, improve RT and the interior and you can hide B. Jones a little more with help.

 

It's a multi-year process and the resources and other needs are greater than LT and a #1 WR.

 

DL is their #1 of many weaknesses...

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't want them trading past 2, IMO.

 

Let's say they're lucky enough to sign Payne, Anderson becomes the no-brainer to put next to him. Follow up with a 1 technique via FA/draft and 3/4th of that line is solid. Depth is improved as well with Jones, etc. going further down the depth chart.

 

Similar to the Oline, improve RT and the interior and you can hide B. Jones a little more with help.

 

It's a multi-year process and the resources and other needs are greater than LT and a #1 WR.

 

DL is their #1 of many weaknesses...

Obviously Anderson is a terrific prospect, but it's also supposed a deep DE class, with plenty of early round talent. No saying how Poles will grade Anderson or Carter next to the other DL who will be available.

 

But yea, if they stay at 1 or 2 to ensure their top choice, I won't be upset. I'd love to pickup that extra 2024 FRP, but theres no guarantee such opportunities will even present themselves.