Bears week 6: Commanders on Thursday night

[raw]

I think we're going to look back and be really pissed off they beat Houston.

 

I'm mostly worried about the teams that will want a QB. Granted, everyone in the top 5-10 probably has to consider taking a QB. But IDK if Houston would or not, since Mills isn't terrible. But ideally, the Bears would be a prime trade up target to a team wanting a QB. Or if the QB needy teams are worse, let them take a QB and let guys like Will Anderson fall (and yes, I do take an elite prospect DE over a non-elite WR prospect).

 

Carolina probably finishes pretty close to the top. Right now, Pittsburgh, Vegas, Arizona, Philly (Saints pick), Jags, and maybe Houston (x2- own & Browns pick) are ahead of the Bears of the teams who likely won't take QB. Losing to Detroit a couple times will probably be most important if high pick is the biggest goal.

[BigSlick]

I used to be all on team 'tank for better picks' but right now we're talking about the difference of 5 or 6 draft spots....which shouldn't be a make or break for putting together a roster. The team is gonna have a top 10 pick regardless.

 

I care less about where they pick than having confidence they know where they're weak on the roster and what talent can help them. And I'm not feeling....overly confident right now.

[WrigleyField 22]

I used to be all on team 'tank for better picks' but right now we're talking about the difference of 5 or 6 draft spots....which shouldn't be a make or break for putting together a roster. The team is gonna have a top 10 pick regardless.

 

I care less about where they pick than having confidence they know where they're weak on the roster and what talent can help them. And I'm not feeling....overly confident right now.

I hate tanking myself, in almost every circumstance, but it's the route Poles took, so I hope they at least execute it well. Them being pitiful but losing out on a top pick due to a SOS tie breaker would be the worst of both worlds.

[Brian707]

I mean how many more games will the Bears win this season? 2-3? 4-13 will get them a top 5 pick at worst, 5-12 should get them in the 6-8 range.

 

Split with the Lions and maybe beat the Falcons. Don't beat a resting Vikings squad that probably will have their #2 or #3 seed locked up.

[raw]

I used to be all on team 'tank for better picks' but right now we're talking about the difference of 5 or 6 draft spots....which shouldn't be a make or break for putting together a roster. The team is gonna have a top 10 pick regardless.

 

I care less about where they pick than having confidence they know where they're weak on the roster and what talent can help them. And I'm not feeling....overly confident right now.

 

Yeah, as much as I'd love to finish with the #2 pick and trade down for multiple firsts to just load this team up with high level talent, ultimately the best thing for this franchise would be for Fields to stay healthy and figure a bunch of things out this year and for them to win some games. The Bears have been in all but 1 game and were a questionable non-TD call away from being in that one. They probably aren't going to be wiped off the field in any game other than Philly and Buffalo. And they won't lose all the games they'll play close.

 

I do have confidence that Poles will attack where they are weak on the roster and add to them. Based on who he's worked under and how KC has done things in recent years, I'd imagine they'll hit OL and WR pretty hard this offseason.

[UMFan83]

I mean how many more games will the Bears win this season? 2-3? 4-13 will get them a top 5 pick at worst, 5-12 should get them in the 6-8 range.

 

Split with the Lions and maybe beat the Falcons. Don't beat a resting Vikings squad that probably will have their #2 or #3 seed locked up.

 

Every year bad teams accidentally beat good teams. The Jets are famous for killing their draft positioning by winning games they shouldn't. The 3-14 Jags beat the Bills last year. As long as Eberflus keeps the players bought in and playing hard, I bet they'll surprise at least 1 team that should beat us this year. And I think he will have them playing hard considering how much of the roster is fringe NFL players and guys on 1 year contracts.

 

5-12 sounds about right to me.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Jaguars also won their last game of the year last year while a half game up on the Lions for the #1 pick…only to keep it because the Lions also won

[WrigleyField 22]

This is pretty unscientific, but if every team played their remaining games to the "expected W-L" record through 6, then you'd finish with Carolina and Pitt as 1-2 and then a 4 way tie with Bears, Arizona, Detroit, and Washington at 6 wins. Bears would then pick 5th under current SOS standing.

 

I think expected W-L is gonna overshoot actual on the low end. The worst teams in the league will undershot their expected W-L. Worst team isn't gonna be a 5 win team.

 

So little variances will make big jumps, but whatever in tier the Bears end at, they are gonna likely fall at the bottom due to SOS.

[Bertz]

This is pretty unscientific, but if every team played their remaining games to the "expected W-L" record through 6, then you'd finish with Carolina and Pitt as 1-2 and then a 4 way tie with Bears, Arizona, Detroit, and Washington at 6 wins. Bears would then pick 5th under current SOS standing.

 

I think expected W-L is gonna overshoot actual on the low end. The worst teams in the league will undershot their expected W-L. Worst team isn't gonna be a 5 win team.

 

So little variances will make big jumps, but whatever in tier the Bears end at, they are gonna likely fall at the bottom due to SOS.

 

FWIW, Football Outsiders has the Bears currently with the 4th highest odds of getting the #1 pick, but the 2nd highest odds of getting a Top 5 pick. So yeah I think to your point the tiebreakers at this point don't look to be doing the Bears any favors.

[WrigleyField 22]

This is pretty unscientific, but if every team played their remaining games to the "expected W-L" record through 6, then you'd finish with Carolina and Pitt as 1-2 and then a 4 way tie with Bears, Arizona, Detroit, and Washington at 6 wins. Bears would then pick 5th under current SOS standing.

 

I think expected W-L is gonna overshoot actual on the low end. The worst teams in the league will undershot their expected W-L. Worst team isn't gonna be a 5 win team.

 

So little variances will make big jumps, but whatever in tier the Bears end at, they are gonna likely fall at the bottom due to SOS.

 

FWIW, Football Outsiders has the Bears currently with the 4th highest odds of getting the #1 pick, but the 2nd highest odds of getting a Top 5 pick. So yeah I think to your point the tiebreakers at this point don't look to be doing the Bears any favors.

I won't survive Bears Twitter from Jan to April if the Bears get the number one pick lol. Even top 2 I may need to delete my account.