Bears week 6: Commanders on Thursday night

[WrigleyField 22]

If you're gonna part with draft picks for a player, like Moore, you better be willing to spend in FA in 2023 too.

 

I cannot imagine a scenario where they are unwilling to spend in 2023. Ownership has opened the wallet in the past, and Poles already punted his first season. It’s not like you can carryover unused cap for future use. They have to spend in 2023.

Well you can carry over cap space literally.

 

But they do have a minimum cash spend they have to hit before the first day of the 2024 league year. So they'll spend a decent amount just to hit the minimum. How high they draft slot is will have some material aspect there, but mostly it's up to Poles. 2022 wasnt super encouraging there.

 

They could spend just the minimum required and Moore would help there, but if you're trading 1sts for vets, you better be in full win now mode and maxing cap spend, not barely scraping at the minimum.

Edited October 10, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

 

 

there is absolutely nothing about signing Moore that would prohibit them from being "opportunistic" in the offseason. Not to mention, who in the offseason would be a better FA to get than Moore for the same value? If you could get him with a 2nd round pick, why wouldn't you?

 

hes good, cheap and young

I mean, saying for only a second negates a huge portion of my point. I'm highly skeptical that the cost would be that low.

 

Unfortunately with the 2023 FA group, I don't think you match Moore, but if there were a Cooper equivalent trade that would be pretty opportunistic and then you keep your high value picks and also try and draft some budding stars, and use FA on line and some better WR depth.

 

man, I'd even be very tempted to go with a 1st for him.

Oh I'd still be tempted, but it's such a win move now for a team that was anything but in 2022 (way beyond any need to be).

 

Like it's hard to understand 2022 as anything other than a tank job, but then you go anti tank 5 games in, but also still too late to make you think theres a good chance its merely some mid round pick you'll part with.

Edited October 10, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[minnesotacubsfan]

.... but if you're trading 1sts for vets, you better be in full win now mode and maxing cap spend, not barely scraping.

 

I'd agree for the Bears if that FA was older, but Moore is just coming into his prime years and would be worth a #1. That addition alone along with a strong draft/FA could get you the division if other chips fell your way, or wc. Teams rebuild overnight all the time in the nfl.

[raw]

 

exactly. If Moore could be had at a reasonable pick, go for it. If it cost them a #2, they could still trade down in the 1st (assuming they would have top 10 pick) and get their 2nd rd pick back. At that point, they could start drafting bpa for all the holes they have and not have to be fixated on WR in the draft

 

I'm pretty sure there is a cap floor (though I think it's based on actual cash spent) so the Bears pretty much HAVE to spend on something. And yeah, you can't punt on multiple seasons at the NFL level and expect to have a job.

 

As for the trade, that's still a lot of moving parts. I'd love DJ Moore, but I don't think you can "plan" on spending a 2nd and recouping it in the draft. If teams know you are going to trade down, and Poles now has a history and based on the roster would have the desperation to trade down, then you probably aren't getting as much on a trade down as you would otherwise. Plus, the right players have to be on the board, etc.

 

oh I agree, but trades in the 1st rd happen frequently enough that it's something that Poles could consider. And fwiw, why would he tell anyone that would be his plan? he wouldn't have to. But he also has FA to play in. My only point is there are ways that he could recoup that pick (or fill holes that 2nd rd pick would be for) and still walk away with a young stud WR for our young (hopefully) stud QB to throw to.

 

I mean, nobody has to know he wants to trade. But it can probably be assumed by the other 31 GMs that a team with like 15 holes for their 22 starting positions would be desperate to trade down. And to be fair, it could also work in the Bears favor if they have a lot of suitors for their pick.

 

Basically, I don't think Poles will make a trade at this point to go to 5 picks again. He already lost one for Harry. So, unless he can flip Quinn and maybe a couple other guys, I don't think he goes to that low a number of picks again.

[WrigleyField 22]

.... but if you're trading 1sts for vets, you better be in full win now mode and maxing cap spend, not barely scraping.

 

I'd agree for the Bears if that FA was older, but Moore is just coming into his prime years and would be worth a #1. That addition alone along with a strong draft/FA could get you the division if other chips fell your way, or wc. Teams rebuild overnight all the time in the nfl.

Like value wise worth a number one or talent wise? Because he has to outperform your #1 by about 11.5M (let's assume it's the number 10 pick, which will be like 22/4 vs his 51/3) to be worth it value wise, strictly speaking.

 

So a #10 pick and 10M in annual cash or DJ Moore. Obviously the certainty value carries some worth, but to what extent is kinda hard to grade. But at the very least changes based on teams' contention mode.

Edited October 10, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[minnesotacubsfan]

I mean, saying for only a second negates a huge portion of my point. I'm highly skeptical that the cost would be that low.

 

Unfortunately with the 2023 FA group, I don't think you match Moore, but if there were a Cooper equivalent trade that would be pretty opportunistic and then you keep your high value picks and also try and draft some budding stars, and use FA on line and some better WR depth.

 

man, I'd even be very tempted to go with a 1st for him.

Oh I'd still be tempted, but it's such a win move now for a team that was anything but in 2022 (way beyond any need to be).

 

Like it's hard to understand 2022 as anything other than a tank job, but then you go anti tank 5 games in, but also still too late to make you think theres a good chance tis merely some mid round pick you'll part with.

 

I tend to think that Mustipher playing center alone guarantees a tank season, so you might as well grab a guy like Moore while you can!

[minnesotacubsfan]

.... but if you're trading 1sts for vets, you better be in full win now mode and maxing cap spend, not barely scraping.

 

I'd agree for the Bears if that FA was older, but Moore is just coming into his prime years and would be worth a #1. That addition alone along with a strong draft/FA could get you the division if other chips fell your way, or wc. Teams rebuild overnight all the time in the nfl.

Like value wise worth a number one or talent wise? Because he has to outperform your #1 by about 11.5M (let's assume it's the number 10 pick, which will be like 22/4 vs his 51/3) to be worth it value wise, strictly speaking.

 

So a #10 pick and 10M in annual cash or DJ Moore. Obviously the certainty value carries some worth, but to what extent is kinda hard to grade. But at the very least changes based on teams' contention mode.

 

luckily, they have so much cap space they could make the dollar amount a moot point by restructuring him. or maybe they cant I really dont know but lets pretend they can and trade for Moore anyway

[raw]

Yeah, I know Carolina is bad. But I think some are discounting DJ Moore's price tag. He's the same age as AJ Brown and has 3 seasons over 1100 yards, compared to AJ who has never hit that number and only hit 1000 twice. Obviously, there's a huge redzone difference and yeah the contract plays a big part in that you don't have to sign Moore to a new 20M/year deal, but there's no way you get him less than a 2+ and I wouldn't put it past a team certainly drafting late to not give up a 1st for him.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yeah, I know Carolina is bad. But I think some are discounting DJ Moore's price tag. He's the same age as AJ Brown and has 3 seasons over 1100 yards, compared to AJ who has never hit that number and only hit 1000 twice. Obviously, there's a huge redzone difference and yeah the contract plays a big part in that you don't have to sign Moore to a new 20M/year deal, but there's no way you get him less than a 2+ and I wouldn't put it past a team certainly drafting late to not give up a 1st for him.

 

 

obviously there is a break-even point on what it would cost to get Moore, but the Bears not being contenders should not be a part of that convo

[minnesotacubsfan]

I just want to see Fields with a competent possession wr before Mustipher gets him killed

[Tim]

Yeah, I know Carolina is bad. But I think some are discounting DJ Moore's price tag. He's the same age as AJ Brown and has 3 seasons over 1100 yards, compared to AJ who has never hit that number and only hit 1000 twice. Obviously, there's a huge redzone difference and yeah the contract plays a big part in that you don't have to sign Moore to a new 20M/year deal, but there's no way you get him less than a 2+ and I wouldn't put it past a team certainly drafting late to not give up a 1st for him.

 

 

obviously there is a break-even point on what it would cost to get Moore, but the Bears not being contenders should not be a part of that convo

The problem is the same one the Cubs had this year with acquiring Soto.

 

Moore has "X" amount of value to the Bears for future seasons. For teams that are contending this year, he has "X" + "Y" value since they will value his contributions for this season, as well. To actually acquire him, the Bears have to pay for the value for this season *and* future seasons. Which is why it is really unlikely to happen.

[Bertz]

The Bears currently project to pick 7th in next year's draft so a 1st is a complete non-starter

[WrigleyField 22]

 

I'd agree for the Bears if that FA was older, but Moore is just coming into his prime years and would be worth a #1. That addition alone along with a strong draft/FA could get you the division if other chips fell your way, or wc. Teams rebuild overnight all the time in the nfl.

Like value wise worth a number one or talent wise? Because he has to outperform your #1 by about 11.5M (let's assume it's the number 10 pick, which will be like 22/4 vs his 51/3) to be worth it value wise, strictly speaking.

 

So a #10 pick and 10M in annual cash or DJ Moore. Obviously the certainty value carries some worth, but to what extent is kinda hard to grade. But at the very least changes based on teams' contention mode.

 

luckily, they have so much cap space they could make the dollar amount a moot point by restructuring him. or maybe they cant I really dont know but lets pretend they can and trade for Moore anyway

Yea, I'm far from worried about any cap mechanics. Its just losing the high value picks (all over again).

[WrigleyField 22]

Yeah, I know Carolina is bad. But I think some are discounting DJ Moore's price tag. He's the same age as AJ Brown and has 3 seasons over 1100 yards, compared to AJ who has never hit that number and only hit 1000 twice. Obviously, there's a huge redzone difference and yeah the contract plays a big part in that you don't have to sign Moore to a new 20M/year deal, but there's no way you get him less than a 2+ and I wouldn't put it past a team certainly drafting late to not give up a 1st for him.

And despite what you want to say about sunk costs, its hard to imagine ownership walking away in mere months and eating that signing bonus and not getting a very high value pick out of the deal.

[WrigleyField 22]

For anyone curious about the Bears standing in terms of the minimum spend requirement.

 

My latest estimate (all pretty conservative estimates)

 

Estimated spend minimum (554M - 90% of 615.7M)

Estimated spend + scheduled spend = 442M (this assumes something like a 7 or 8 pick slot rookie bonus pool)

Spend deficit = 112M (I'd say +/- 5M depending on final draft positioning).

 

If you look at probable vet cuts (such as Quinn @ 14M, Whitehair @9.9M), the minimum spend deficit could grow another 20-25M

 

You have Smith and Montgomery as in house guys who might sign big deals with first year numbers. Mooney, Johnson, and to a much lesser extent Gipson and Kmet as early extension candidates. So maybe you get another 50M in year 1 signing bonuses to lower that outlay. But I think that's far from guaranteed and you're talking about lots of questionable money at RB/LB anyways then.

[UMFan83]

Like value wise worth a number one or talent wise? Because he has to outperform your #1 by about 11.5M (let's assume it's the number 10 pick, which will be like 22/4 vs his 51/3) to be worth it value wise, strictly speaking.

 

So a #10 pick and 10M in annual cash or DJ Moore. Obviously the certainty value carries some worth, but to what extent is kinda hard to grade. But at the very least changes based on teams' contention mode.

 

luckily, they have so much cap space they could make the dollar amount a moot point by restructuring him. or maybe they cant I really dont know but lets pretend they can and trade for Moore anyway

Yea, I'm far from worried about any cap mechanics. Its just losing the high value picks (all over again).

 

Which is why its fine to speculate but seems extremely unlikely that the FO will even consider it. There was a report a couple weeks ago that the Bears would be looking at WRs on the trading block, but I think that was/is more looking for decent veteran guys that can be had at a low draft pick cost.

 

I'm kind of in the middle between "give Justin Fields some real help" and "I respect the FO's plan to build through the draft as long as they are hitting on their picks"

[raw]

The Bears currently project to pick 7th in next year's draft so a 1st is a complete non-starter

 

Actually, they'd pick 17th if the season ended today. https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/full_draft

 

Granted they are tied with all the teams that pick from 7th on down, and 7th is about where they will probably finish, but they have played the toughest schedule so far of the 2-3 teams.

[bukie]

I don't really see the value in signing Montgomery to a sizable deal this offseason. I'd much rather have a longer term deal for a 25yo WR than a 25yo RB, particularly as the value of a single RB getting lesser and lesser with each passing season given the evolving scope of the NFL offense these days. Just because the Bears are rushing more than average doesn't mean much in terms of NFL offensive capability.

 

They need 2-3 capable WRs and a solid OL/TE to really be able to run a NFL-caliber offense with Fields. They're currently about 2-3 WR short and 2-3 OL short, and possibly a TE short. I get trying to develop inexpensive talent via the draft, but you can't expect the team to hit on all that in the draft, so at that point it becomes about what's worth spending FA/trade value on, and I'd love Moore as a piece if the price is at all reasonable. I don't see much in the offseason FA WR market that would match that.

[raw]

 

luckily, they have so much cap space they could make the dollar amount a moot point by restructuring him. or maybe they cant I really dont know but lets pretend they can and trade for Moore anyway

Yea, I'm far from worried about any cap mechanics. Its just losing the high value picks (all over again).

 

Which is why its fine to speculate but seems extremely unlikely that the FO will even consider it. There was a report a couple weeks ago that the Bears would be looking at WRs on the trading block, but I think that was/is more looking for decent veteran guys that can be had at a low draft pick cost.

 

I'm kind of in the middle between "give Justin Fields some real help" and "I respect the FO's plan to build through the draft as long as they are hitting on their picks"

 

Since Moore is signed for 3 more years, I wonder if Carolina would take something like a 2023 3rd or 4th rounder + a 2024 2nd rounder? I think something like that would interest the Bears since they would have another draft and 2 FA periods to fill holes before losing that top 60 pick. Carolina is probably facing a multi-year rebuild so they may be interested in something like that if that's the most they could get for Moore and they think that Bears pick will be high (and they passed on Fields so it's possible they don't think he's good enough).

 

Would also give the Bears more time to recoup some picks between guys like Quinn and potentially comp picks for Roquan + Montgomery coming in 2024 if they focus on salary cap casualty types instead of UFAs.

[Brian707]

Kind of sucks that this is their only home game between September 26 and November 5, and its on a short week. While the schedule coming into the season looked easier the structure of it is not.

 

Yeah the structure sucks. Meanwhile 3 straight December home games with a bye sandwiched in there

[raw]

I don't really see the value in signing Montgomery to a sizable deal this offseason. I'd much rather have a longer term deal for a 25yo WR than a 25yo RB, particularly as the value of a single RB getting lesser and lesser with each passing season given the evolving scope of the NFL offense these days. Just because the Bears are rushing more than average doesn't mean much in terms of NFL offensive capability.

 

They need 2-3 capable WRs and a solid OL/TE to really be able to run a NFL-caliber offense with Fields. They're currently about 2-3 WR short and 2-3 OL short, and possibly a TE short. I get trying to develop inexpensive talent via the draft, but you can't expect the team to hit on all that in the draft, so at that point it becomes about what's worth spending FA/trade value on, and I'd love Moore as a piece if the price is at all reasonable. I don't see much in the offseason FA WR market that would match that.

 

So a Montgomery deal would look a lot like Mixon's or Aaron Jones' deal to me. They both signed for 4/48Mil, which seems like a bit much, but they only got 10-13Mil guaranteed. Mixon's cap hits are 8Mil this year, and 11 next, then they can get out of it with 8 dead over 2 years. Jones was restructured after Rodgers' deal and has an ugly 20M cap hit next year, but they can get out of that deal after 2023 for 7Mil over 3 years. Or more likely, they restructure him and push money around.

 

The Bears wouldn't have to do that with Montgomery, because they don't have anyone else they have to pay. And luckily, paying him doesn't prevent them from doing anything else reasonable on the free agent market. So, you could give Monty a 4/48 deal, that's really like 18-20 guaranteed, and you can get out of all that guaranteed money after 2024....before Fields is due for a payday (hopefully) and before anyone other than maybe Mooney and Johnson are due any big money.

 

So basically, I probably re-sign Montgomery, just because he's the only good player on O right now. You can structure an easy out of the deal and make him feel respected at the same time. Also of note, Herbert can't block AT ALL. So, he's probably not worthy of being RB1 on a team that's trying to win games. That means you are either going to pay someone else less than Montgomery next year or you're using a somewhat valuable draft pick to replace him (thinking anywhere from 2nd to 4th). I know you can find RBs anywhere, but most good ones are still found in that range. So an investment needs to be made there anyway. Might as well make the monetary only investment now, while you are able. Contracts like Elliott only hurt those teams because they have other expensive players (Dak, OL, WRs) and they lost Cooper and a couple OL because of it. Bears don't have good players to worry about losing.

[WrigleyField 22]

The Bears currently project to pick 7th in next year's draft so a 1st is a complete non-starter

 

Actually, they'd pick 17th if the season ended today. https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/full_draft

 

Granted they are tied with all the teams that pick from 7th on down, and 7th is about where they will probably finish, but they have played the toughest schedule so far of the 2-3 teams.

Yea that schedule that was supposed to be easy is currently killing their draft tie breaker with the hardest SOS. I expect that to normalize at least some, but projects to still be higher than expected.

[pitchcs]

I'd be beyond pissed in trading a 1st round draft pick for D.J. Moore

[UMFan83]

JT O'Sullivan did a breakdown on Fields performance yesterday but its behind a paywall now:

 

 

Sucks because I loved watching these, but its good enough content that he deserves to make money from it.

 

He did tweet this out though:

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

The Bears desperately need a WR.

 

The Panthers desperately need salary relief.

 

Sounds good to me.

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

Smoke....fire?

 

https://twitter.com/jaylonlockson/status/1579542342419484672?s=46&t=Zwog8y5Q7Yd2mq-8fsWvLQ