2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Bertz]

I'm starting to eye Will Smith as one of the reliever adds.

 

He had a pretty uninspired run in Atlanta, but after some changes to his pitch mix was really good after the trade to Houston. He didn't get any real leverage work (including not being used at all in the playoffs), but given his long history in late inning relief I take that more as them not trusting that his changes had fully taken yet moreso than thinking he didn't have it anymore. It probably doesn't hurt that Houston's bullpen was like 6-7 deep on legitimate late inning options, so they never really had to press their luck.

 

At his worst Smith's still been rough on lefties. If you bet right he's a legitimate closer, if you're wrong he's still likely a solid lefty middle reliever.

[Named After Maddux]

I'm starting to eye Will Smith as one of the reliever adds.

 

He had a pretty uninspired run in Atlanta, but after some changes to his pitch mix was really good after the trade to Houston. He didn't get any real leverage work (including not being used at all in the playoffs), but given his long history in late inning relief I take that more as them not trusting that his changes had fully taken yet moreso than thinking he didn't have it anymore. It probably doesn't hurt that Houston's bullpen was like 6-7 deep on legitimate late inning options, so they never really had to press their luck.

 

At his worst Smith's still been rough on lefties. If you bet right he's a legitimate closer, if you're wrong he's still likely a solid lefty middle reliever.

Ha! Great minds.

I have a thread coming tomorrow on Will Smith. Short answer is I really like him as a cheap reclamation closer. Houston and Atlanta started moving his horizontal release point closer to his body and increased his spin efficiency. Along with that they changed his slider from a baby sweeper to a gyro slider. And it’s a great pitch but it came at the expense of everything else in his profile. I think the cubs have him go back to a more horizontal release, bump up horizontal movement on slider. He should be very cheap and could get closer innings wary in the year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah I can get on board with Smith essentially being the new Robertson pretty easily. Another one that is a little more speculative is Alex Colome. He's been Fastball/Cutter for a while(which probably explains at least some of his Rockies tenure) and he still has the same velo from when he was a strong closing option, which feels like a good foundation for this staff to work with.

[Cubswin11]

I want to add at least 1 of (depending on other moves maybe even 2) Smith, Britton, Estevez and Lugo

[Bertz]

 

The Ray's have so much pitching at various expected performance levels it's hard to get a sense on who this could be for

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Twitter is jumping on the idea of Glasnow being a target, I have no complaints with his ability but a 15M AAV plus significant trade cost is a lot to choke down for a guy who has never reached 15 MLB GS in a season.

 

My 'I looked up a bunch of guys I had heard of once before' take is Beeks might be the guy? Arb eligible reliever whose peripherals don't match the performance justifies it for the Rays, but maybe some room for development given his TJS in 2021 and big LHP fastball to either be a late inning RP or LH Thompson?

 

The other two off the wall ideas are best posed as questions. 1) How many starts do they think they could get out of Chirinos if they only wanted SP2 to be a Wesneski hedge instead of a bigger investment? 2) How much have the Rays soured on Patiño, and relatedly, how healthy is his arm?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

^ Yeah I like Beeks…was also looking at maybe being Garrett Cleavinger’s 5th org, he’s a stuff lefty who has floated around btw the Phillies, Giants, Dodgers, and Rays…Yonny Chirinos (93.6) as SP depth…but Beeks seems like best fit

 

Seems like a good offseason to go after Taylor Walls with Franco and Lowe coming back for them

 

I almost included Cleavinger but didn't with his pre-arb salary and solid performance, but given what you say about his nomadic career and that TB might not see his 2022 BB% as his true talent, that's a distinct possibility.

[Cubswin11]

Love Glasnow as a trade target if we’re gonna try and build a winning team. Any of the Thompson’s/Assads/Sampson/Franklins would all seem like dudes the Rays would like with some adder stuff.

[Bertz]

Jeffrey Springs might make a lot of sense? Assuming both are under no illusion that what he did this year is his expected level of future performance?

 

But a mid/back of the rotation arm under two years of control at arb prices might land right at the perfect intersection of reasonably available and reasonably priced. MLBTR projects a $3M salary, so you could do something like Senga and Springs and take care of the rotation for <$20M.

[Tim]

If they're specifically looking to free 40 man space, wouldn't they want targets not on the 40?

[Cubswin11]

If they're specifically looking to free 40 man space, wouldn't they want targets not on the 40?

Idk if it’s so much freeing 40-man space, it’s getting rid of guys about to be expensive on the 40-man for them

[Tim]

If they're specifically looking to free 40 man space, wouldn't they want targets not on the 40?

Idk if it’s so much freeing 40-man space, it’s getting rid of guys about to be expensive on the 40-man for them

Everything I've seen about why they are looking to make trades now is to clear space ahead of Tuesday's rostering deadline. I'd think they'd either be looking to consolidate spots or trade for guys who don't need to be rostered.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah I think it's mostly about the 40 man space, aside from Glasnow and Margot(both of whom signed their current deals in the last 12 months), there's no one making more than a couple million, and they lost Kiermaier, Zunino, and Kluber's salaries which were like a third of their payroll. That said, I'm sure they'll be more willing to trade the arb guys than the pre-arb guys, but I'd be surprised if they took on current 40 man obligations.

[Named After Maddux]

I'm starting to eye Will Smith as one of the reliever adds.

 

He had a pretty uninspired run in Atlanta, but after some changes to his pitch mix was really good after the trade to Houston. He didn't get any real leverage work (including not being used at all in the playoffs), but given his long history in late inning relief I take that more as them not trusting that his changes had fully taken yet moreso than thinking he didn't have it anymore. It probably doesn't hurt that Houston's bullpen was like 6-7 deep on legitimate late inning options, so they never really had to press their luck.

 

At his worst Smith's still been rough on lefties. If you bet right he's a legitimate closer, if you're wrong he's still likely a solid lefty middle reliever.

Ha! Great minds.

I have a thread coming tomorrow on Will Smith. Short answer is I really like him as a cheap reclamation closer. Houston and Atlanta started moving his horizontal release point closer to his body and increased his spin efficiency. Along with that they changed his slider from a baby sweeper to a gyro slider. And it’s a great pitch but it came at the expense of everything else in his profile. I think the cubs have him go back to a more horizontal release, bump up horizontal movement on slider. He should be very cheap and could get closer innings wary in the year.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bowden and Wittenmyer have prediction columns up that despite being unsourced, both have Correa going to the Cubs. Wittenmyer also has a non-tendered Bellinger signing, which is the only other Cubs mention of either piece.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

[CubinNY]

27 year old 2nd baseman who had a cup of coffee in the bigs last year? Ok baseball people, tell me why this is something to maybe get excited about.

[Cubswin11]

27 year old 2nd baseman who had a cup of coffee in the bigs last year? Ok baseball people, tell me why this is something to maybe get excited about.

Probably means Mckinstry is gone if they don’t get him through waivers. Mastrobuoni put up some good minor league numbers last year, can play CF and he has options left (Mckinstry doesn’t). Seems like a simple swap out for Mckinstry with more flexibility. Also if you want to speculate….. a LHH CF/OF bench/utility guy is more valuable than Mckinstry’s ability as a utility/bench guy to play SS if we are adding one of the big SS’s.

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Post Count Padder]

Is this just Esteban quiroz? How this guy better than what we have in the system already?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Sure would be nice if the power breakout was real

[champaignchris]

27 year old 2nd baseman who had a cup of coffee in the bigs last year? Ok baseball people, tell me why this is something to maybe get excited about.

 

Seems like the kind of guy the Cubs already have several of.

 

Basically .300 with a .370 OBP over his last 3 minor league seasons in AA and AAA, with his SLG being improving each year.

 

Seems pretty damn redundant with McKinstry, Bote and Madrigal.

[CubinNY]

27 year old 2nd baseman who had a cup of coffee in the bigs last year? Ok baseball people, tell me why this is something to maybe get excited about.

 

Seems like the kind of guy the Cubs already have several of.

 

Basically .300 with a .370 OBP over his last 3 minor league seasons in AA and AAA, with his SLG being improving each year.

 

Seems pretty damn redundant with McKinstry, Bote and Madrigal.

I think Bote will be gone after today if he isn't already gone.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that the most likely thing this portends is that McKinstry didn't save himself with his decent September line, and he's getting outrighted the moment it becomes necessary(maybe today, maybe in 2 weeks, maybe in January). Other less likely possibilities include an increased likelihood of Madrigal/Morel getting traded, a lesser 40 man squeeze than assumed that can afford to carry Mastrobuoni(who still has options), or even the Cubs wanting to give him a look in CF in some form.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[Bertz]

Yeah this is probably a 1 for 1 swap with Mckinstry. I think I like Mckinstry better, but Mastro has minor league options and Steamer likes him quite a bit (2.6 WAR/600 PAs).