2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Bertz]

 

I think if the team signs a real 1B, Kiermaier is my preference in CF. Bellinger is cool if we need the 1B coverage too, but if the smoke around Bell/Abreu is real I'd rather go with less of a risk in CF. Plus Kiermaier seems likely to cost a bit less.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I think if the team signs a real 1B, Kiermaier is my preference in CF. Bellinger is cool if we need the 1B coverage too, but if the smoke around Bell/Abreu is real I'd rather go with less of a risk in CF. Plus Kiermaier seems likely to cost a bit less.

 

In a vacuum I'd be pretty happy with Kiermaier + Abreu, but that's a big chunk of the likely available $ so you'd be jeopardizing some other significant addition or needing it to come via trade(e.g. Lopez instead of Senga).

 

If I try to (probably unsuccessfully) read between the lines, it sounds like they want to quickly bank some significant offensive improvement via Abreu, since he's a well rounded hitter and significant upgrade that doesn't block any other moves positionally. Then they can start playing tetris with how much their significant SS/SP targets want, what trade convos look like, etc, to see how much maneuverability they have for things like CF, SP2, or even C. But with the knowledge they've made progress on the biggest weakness to start with.

[Cubswin11]

 

I think if the team signs a real 1B, Kiermaier is my preference in CF. Bellinger is cool if we need the 1B coverage too, but if the smoke around Bell/Abreu is real I'd rather go with less of a risk in CF. Plus Kiermaier seems likely to cost a bit less.

 

In a vacuum I'd be pretty happy with Kiermaier + Abreu, but that's a big chunk of the likely available $ so you'd be jeopardizing some other significant addition or needing it to come via trade(e.g. Lopez instead of Senga).

Kiermaier and Abreu can’t take more than ~$30 mil on the AAV side and overall commitment can’t be more than ~$50-60ish. If that’s a big chunk of our money, with where we stand then idk what we’re even doing here.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I think if the team signs a real 1B, Kiermaier is my preference in CF. Bellinger is cool if we need the 1B coverage too, but if the smoke around Bell/Abreu is real I'd rather go with less of a risk in CF. Plus Kiermaier seems likely to cost a bit less.

 

In a vacuum I'd be pretty happy with Kiermaier + Abreu, but that's a big chunk of the likely available $ so you'd be jeopardizing some other significant addition or needing it to come via trade(e.g. Lopez instead of Senga).

Kiermaier and Abreu can’t take more than ~$30 mil on the AAV side and overall commitment can’t be more than ~$50-60ish. If that’s a big chunk of our money, with where we stand then idk what we’re even doing here.

 

I'm only thinking of AAV, because the LT threshold(or some amount under it like 5-10M) is where I expect there to be an upper limit this offseason. We've talked before about how we can probably expect them to spend 70-80 million of AAV with this in mind, maybe a touch more in very specific circumstances. If Kiermaier and Abreu are 25 million, and you still want to pursue a SS(30-35M), add 2 SP(~25M?), add a C(3-8M), fill in the bullpen(10M last year), and extend Nico(~8M AAV increase), well you can add it up and see that gets difficult pretty quickly.

[Bertz]

If I try to (probably unsuccessfully) read between the lines, it sounds like they want to quickly bank some significant offensive improvement via Abreu, since he's a well rounded hitter and significant upgrade that doesn't block any other moves positionally. Then they can start playing tetris with how much their significant SS/SP targets want, what trade convos look like, etc, to see how much maneuverability they have for things like CF, SP2, or even C. But with the knowledge they've made progress on the biggest weakness to start with.

 

Yeah if the Abreu signing comes down as quickly as Levine keeps implying it will I think this is the right read. Honestly I'd view 1B/DH, C, and one SP as the only absolutely essential adds this winter. Everything else is a matter of degree and opportunity. I wonder if we see those three things addressed expediently and then everything else drag until the winter meetings or later when the market is clearer.

[Tim]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/rays-place-nick-anderson-on-outright-waivers.html

 

Anderson seems like a nice injury-rehab target.

[Tim]

40 man moves today:

 

Here’s the rundown …

 

Activated off the 60-day IL: Kyle Hendricks, Codi Heuer, Ethan Roberts, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Alec Mills, and Brad Wieck.

 

Outrighted off the 40-man roster: Alec Mills, Brad Wieck, David Bote, Steven Brault, Narciso Crook, Anderson Espinoza, and Franmil Reyes.

 

40 man down to 36 people after the moves.

[Post Count Padder]

40 man moves today:

 

Here’s the rundown …

 

Activated off the 60-day IL: Kyle Hendricks, Codi Heuer, Ethan Roberts, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Alec Mills, and Brad Wieck.

 

Outrighted off the 40-man roster: Alec Mills, Brad Wieck, David Bote, Steven Brault, Narciso Crook, Anderson Espinoza, and Franmil Reyes.

 

40 man down to 36 people after the moves.

So have these guys been sent to Iowa or are they choosing FA? None of those are surprises really.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Hartman is a 2020 4th rounder who missed most of 2021 and 2022 w/ TJS, coming back for 18 (bad) low A IP. For someone with Choi's offensive floor and modest 2022 salary I wouldn't have hated him for that price.

[Derwood]

Take it to the non-Cubs thread

[Bertz]

40 man moves today:

 

Here’s the rundown …

 

Activated off the 60-day IL: Kyle Hendricks, Codi Heuer, Ethan Roberts, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Alec Mills, and Brad Wieck.

 

Outrighted off the 40-man roster: Alec Mills, Brad Wieck, David Bote, Steven Brault, Narciso Crook, Anderson Espinoza, and Franmil Reyes.

 

40 man down to 36 people after the moves.

 

Several ended up as FAs along with some others

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a little bit of Bogaerts chatter picking up, between Wittenmyer reporting that the Cubs met with his agent and Heyman on the radio today saying that might be the best fit for the Cubs. Fangraphs has his contract at 6/168, which would leave some room even if it's a little low for the Cubs to be competitive on a 5 year deal that doesn't completely wreck all other plans(e.g. 5/170 probably carries more appeal than 6/180). That would fit if it were true that the FO wants to get that star SS but really hates long term deals, even if it's a bit silly to be deathly afraid of 8 years for 28 y/o Correa but then give 5 to 30 y/o Bogaerts. I have my reservations about Bogaerts(the defense is unclear and again, 30 v. 28), but he has an offensive profile that looks like it should age gracefully and still play at 3B if they do move him. Preferable to rolling the dice on Swanson repeating his 2022 at the plate for me.

[champaignchris]

There's a little bit of Bogaerts chatter picking up, between Wittenmyer reporting that the Cubs met with his agent and Heyman on the radio today saying that might be the best fit for the Cubs. Fangraphs has his contract at 6/168, which would leave some room even if it's a little low for the Cubs to be competitive on a 5 year deal that doesn't completely wreck all other plans(e.g. 5/170 probably carries more appeal than 6/180). That would fit if it were true that the FO wants to get that star SS but really hates long term deals, even if it's a bit silly to be deathly afraid of 8 years for 28 y/o Correa but then give 5 to 30 y/o Bogaerts. I have my reservations about Bogaerts(the defense is unclear and again, 30 v. 28), but he has an offensive profile that looks like it should age gracefully and still play at 3B if they do move him. Preferable to rolling the dice on Swanson repeating his 2022 at the plate for me.

 

Is Bogaerts good enough defensively to move Nico off of SS? Or is Bogaerts going to be the 2B?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a little bit of Bogaerts chatter picking up, between Wittenmyer reporting that the Cubs met with his agent and Heyman on the radio today saying that might be the best fit for the Cubs. Fangraphs has his contract at 6/168, which would leave some room even if it's a little low for the Cubs to be competitive on a 5 year deal that doesn't completely wreck all other plans(e.g. 5/170 probably carries more appeal than 6/180). That would fit if it were true that the FO wants to get that star SS but really hates long term deals, even if it's a bit silly to be deathly afraid of 8 years for 28 y/o Correa but then give 5 to 30 y/o Bogaerts. I have my reservations about Bogaerts(the defense is unclear and again, 30 v. 28), but he has an offensive profile that looks like it should age gracefully and still play at 3B if they do move him. Preferable to rolling the dice on Swanson repeating his 2022 at the plate for me.

 

Is Bogaerts good enough defensively to move Nico off of SS? Or is Bogaerts going to be the 2B?

 

Bogaerts has been pretty insistent on playing SS in a similar situation last year(Boston signing Trevor Story), so I think in 2023 you would see a default of Bogaerts SS/Nico 2B. There's reasons to think that wouldn't be so bad. Bogaerts has consistently had good UZRs, and this year had OAA easily above average too. Nico was very strong defensively last year, but also a decent chunk of that value came from constantly being flipped to play in the hole on LHH shifts, which could persist in this arrangement. And while the default would be this way there's also keeping Bogaerts rested or any minor injuries, so I'd expect Nico to be over there 10-20 games regardless. Plus, Bogaerts' insistence on playing SS may go down if he's paid like an elite SS and gotten his big FA deal.

[champaignchris]

There's a little bit of Bogaerts chatter picking up, between Wittenmyer reporting that the Cubs met with his agent and Heyman on the radio today saying that might be the best fit for the Cubs. Fangraphs has his contract at 6/168, which would leave some room even if it's a little low for the Cubs to be competitive on a 5 year deal that doesn't completely wreck all other plans(e.g. 5/170 probably carries more appeal than 6/180). That would fit if it were true that the FO wants to get that star SS but really hates long term deals, even if it's a bit silly to be deathly afraid of 8 years for 28 y/o Correa but then give 5 to 30 y/o Bogaerts. I have my reservations about Bogaerts(the defense is unclear and again, 30 v. 28), but he has an offensive profile that looks like it should age gracefully and still play at 3B if they do move him. Preferable to rolling the dice on Swanson repeating his 2022 at the plate for me.

 

Is Bogaerts good enough defensively to move Nico off of SS? Or is Bogaerts going to be the 2B?

 

Bogaerts has been pretty insistent on playing SS in a similar situation last year(Boston signing Trevor Story), so I think in 2023 you would see a default of Bogaerts SS/Nico 2B. There's reasons to think that wouldn't be so bad. Bogaerts has consistently had good UZRs, and this year had OAA easily above average too. Nico was very strong defensively last year, but also a decent chunk of that value came from constantly being flipped to play in the hole on LHH shifts, which could persist in this arrangement. And while the default would be this way there's also keeping Bogaerts rested or any minor injuries, so I'd expect Nico to be over there 10-20 games regardless. Plus, Bogaerts' insistence on playing SS may go down if he's paid like an elite SS and gotten his big FA deal.

 

I think I’m getting more sold on Bogaerts. I don’t pay enough attention to the AL and didn’t realize how good and consistent his bat’s been over the last 5 years.

 

My thought on Trea Turner all along has been that I didn’t really mind paying him like an elite SS despite the fact that he might not play SS over the last half of his contract because that bat will play anywhere. I’m coming to the same conclusion on Bogaerts.

[UMFan83]

Can someone sell me on Dansby Swanson not being an infield Heyward without bringing up his vaccination status?

[Cubswin11]

Swanson shouldn’t be any consideration, imo. Gonna be 29, not a special career slash line .260/.320/.420, 94 career wRC+. Doesn’t steal bases, doesn’t walk really, Ks enough already and those typically trend wrong ways as dudes age, other than this year his defense doesn’t grade great either. He just seems very ordinary and wouldn’t be my big bet. It’s just not a 9 Figure commitment to put ~10% of the payroll on a guy who’s mostly, realistically a 2-3 win dude and closing in on wrong side of the aging curve, imo. There isn’t another 6+ win season in him, imo, unless the defense stays like this (which there’s no proof it will). Edited November 11, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Bertz]

Can someone sell me on Dansby Swanson not being an infield Heyward without bringing up his vaccination status?

 

Right off the bat he hits the ball in the air a ton. And he doesn't hit many popups either (which a lot extreme flyball hitters do) so it's not just that we'd be trading groundouts to 2nd for infield flys. If Statcast had been around a few years earlier Heyward would have been more obviously a ticking time bomb, Swanson doesn't have any such red flags.

 

At a 5000 foot view though, it is a similar defense first profile though. He's a plus defensive shortstop, plus baserunner, and merely a pretty good hitter (109 wRC+ last three years).

 

Mostly it's just going to be a substantially smaller financial commitment when you account for inflation. Swanson's going to get 5 or 6 years and 25 per. Heyward got similar AAV but 7 years ago, but Heyward's deal when signed was one of the 15 biggest ever. Swanson's gonna get outpaid by at least 5 guys just this winter alone.

[Cubswin11]

Not sure why I deleted…Why does Dansby need a special bat headed into FA to be a good and desirable FA? Not only is he the best defensive SS available, a half decade+ durable starter there with above average performances over the span, but he’s the only one moving in the right direction offensively post-pandemic (acknowledging Turner’s lines and also pointing out the low BB% ‘21-‘22 and13% SwStr in 2022, abv lg GBs too, on a player likely to hit leadoff by reputation and contract)

Swanson just isn’t truly an elite player unless you really believe in the defense from this season, the bat is pretty ordinary and average. Just don’t see why we’d spend 9 figures and a draft pick, think there’s far better ways to to use that money to build out a better (or as good team) and not be sunk with a soon to be 30 something ~3 win player for 5-7 years who doesn’t have upside.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not a big Steamer fan, but I think it boils down the point pretty well.

 

Correa 5.1 fWAR

Bogaerts 4.5

Turner 4.7

Swanson 3.2

 

You can do a lot better for your star-level investment, especially when you do have Hoerner so SS defense(the one differentiator for Swanson) is not a gaping hole where you'd get disproportionate benefit. If someone wants to make the case that Swanson made some specific improvement that makes 2022 the new norm I'm open to it, but his candidacy to belong in this category hinges on stuff like his 2022 defensive value(a cartoonish 15 RAA beating a previous career high of 7), and him maintaining an offensive level that (to put it gently) he has not reached with consistency.

[Post Count Padder]

Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young outrighted to Iowa.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Maybe we're just working from different starting points as I don't buy the one star thing. It's definitely not how great teams are built now (Correa was what, like the 5th best player on the Astros while there?*) and neither Hoyer or Hawkins strike me as One Man kind of GMidents. Also not sure I buy the Hoerner angle since they're signing the FA SS to play SS and there's no info suggesting any of these guys but maybe Turner are open to moving anytime soon

 

Not sure what you're getting at here. No one is saying 'well this is their one chance to get a star-level player so it better be great', but they also aren't going to make 3+ or even 2 investments of that caliber AAV *this year* so the difference in certainty/upside certainly matters.

 

 

 

Also don't buy the offensive consistency thing as this requires putting a ton of weight on 2016-2018 with the 2016 debut coming a little over a year after being drafted. His xwOBA over the past 4 seasons: .354, .350, .332, .337...avg EVs sitting above league average 89-90...17 HRs, 10 (in 2020, a 25 HR pace), 27, and 25 over the past 4 years...league average or better OBPs the past 4 years....barrel% above 11+% the past 3 years...hard hit 40+% the past 4 years...below league chase rates the past 4 years...WAR with crazy defensive numbers (he's played with Freeman and Olson at 1B) may not be new norm but Swanson there's not so much doubt Swanson can hit. I'd even say there's more offense as he could pull the ball more for HRs and last years' 7% BBs dragged him to a career league average BB% and just below double digits in over 4500+ PAs btw NCAA, MiLB, and MLB

 

If you like projections: ZiPs midseason update on Swanson had him at +17.1 fWAR through 2028. Plenty on whatever he'll sign...IIRC, might be wrong, Correa projected for 19-21 but I've lost that if it ever existed

 

*I do reserve the right to waffle on Correa and say I overthought all of this

 

If he hits like last year then great! He's a good defender and a year younger than Bogaerts/Turner. But since he's only been above average hitter last year and the pandemic-shortened 2020, I'm extremely skeptical!

[pitchcs]

One guy I really have zero interest in would be Josh Bell

[Cubswin11]

I’ve been a Lugo fan for a few years now and think he’s a fit for the roster if they’re trying to win, but if he’s gonna move fast I wonder how aggressive they will be with all the moving parts of this offseason as a first move.

[Tim]

For a fun Saturday night, I created a spreadsheet!

 

I started with the Fangraphs top 50 free agent list and put that into Excel, with columns for the rank, name, position, age, projected contract years & AAV. Then I added a quick ability to select players to add and see total spend.

 

Then...I turned it into a google sheet so that you all can have as much fun with your weekend as I did!

 

Here you go!