2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[17 Seconds]

i would give almost anything for ohtani

[Transmogrified Tiger]

All respect to Sahadev but he is one of several people in that article who are trying to pretend that Ohtani has Soto trade value instead of Mookie trade value.

[17 Seconds]

[Andy]

Rizzo opted out.

[Cubswin11]

[Irrelevant Dude]

Rizzo opted out.

Opting out was a no brainer. Will he take the QO though?

[Bertz]

[Cubswin11]

Depending on the overall moves we make, Wendle or Anderson could be nice additions in the margins depending if we trade guys/who we sign.

 

[Bertz]

 

Curious to see how Kluber, or someone else Kluber-like, would fit into the broader plan. Is the plan someone like Senga, who there's a lot of smoke around, paired with someone like Kluber or Smyly? Or is it a trade for a cost controlled SP and then sign another SP in the $10-15M range? With Senga seeming to be plan A.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

 

 

This made me curious what could fit in an offseason where you aren't getting one of the SS. I came up with

 

Extend Nico (10M AAV) and Happ(16M)

Sign 2 SP, e.g. Senga (16M) and Smyly(8)

Sign a bat, probably Abreu (18M)

Sign a C, e.g. Narvaez (8M)

Sign a CF, e.g. Bellinger (12M)

Sign a couple RP

 

That gets you to a level of spending I think is within the likely range, maybe still a bit light depending on specifics(e.g. you can splurge a little on RP). Is this my idea of an ideal plan of action? No. I think this only makes sense if the FO is deathly allergic to long term deals, and it could also make a little sense in the context of 1) really prioritizing pitching depth(~25M on SP and no outgoings) 2) believing in Madrigal and/or wanting to keep Morel on the infield 3) keeping powder dry for next offseason when the team is better and Heyward/Hendricks are essentially a free extra 35 million to go nuts for your player of choice(Ohtani for the rarity? Devers for the age?). But it seems a lot simpler to me to suck it up on your SS of choice(especially since Correa in particular is 28 and his value plays fine at 3B) and make do with lesser/speculative options elsewhere to make it fit.

[Tim]

I hate extending Happ.

[Bertz]

I hate extending Happ.

 

Me too.

 

I'd guess a no shortstop offseason likely involves going hard on the rotation. Senga/Smyly seems to be a level of settling you do to facilitate 30-35M allocated to shortstop, but if you're punting there I think Rodon or Verlander is likely leading the pitching staff.

 

To me though, my read on Jed's drawing the line on five/six years is that Swanson becomes the guy. I mentioned this a few weeks ago but he helps make a lot of other pieces fit together better. Right now it's a tough puzzle to get a SS, two SPs, extend Nico, and address both of 1B/CF. But save ~$10M at short and suddenly you can more realistically address the full to do list.

[17 Seconds]

god damnit

[Transmogrified Tiger]

To me though, my read on Jed's drawing the line on five/six years is that Swanson becomes the guy. I mentioned this a few weeks ago but he helps make a lot of other pieces fit together better. Right now it's a tough puzzle to get a SS, two SPs, extend Nico, and address both of 1B/CF. But save ~$10M at short and suddenly you can more realistically address the full to do list.

 

Maybe this is my coping mechanism then because boy do I really not like giving Swanson 20+ million. It could make sense for say, the Phillies, but this team is so low on firepower that spending that chunk of change on a guy with 1 full season of above average hitting to his name just strikes me as a different flavor of the Jeff Blauser mistake from all those years ago. I'd honestly rather just spread it all around and/or take more chances on prospects coming through.

[Tim]

I hate extending Happ.

 

Me too.

 

I'd guess a no shortstop offseason likely involves going hard on the rotation. Senga/Smyly seems to be a level of settling you do to facilitate 30-35M allocated to shortstop, but if you're punting there I think Rodon or Verlander is likely leading the pitching staff.

 

To me though, my read on Jed's drawing the line on five/six years is that Swanson becomes the guy. I mentioned this a few weeks ago but he helps make a lot of other pieces fit together better. Right now it's a tough puzzle to get a SS, two SPs, extend Nico, and address both of 1B/CF. But save ~$10M at short and suddenly you can more realistically address the full to do list.

I'd much rather it mean that Xander is the guy.

[UMFan83]

Yeah those reports have dampened my enthusiasm a little for this offseason. Not to say that the Cubs cant cobble together a playoff team with shorter term additions, but the Cubs definitely need a big bat at some point. I know Jed is obsessed with his principles around long term deals and is probably petrified that Ricketts is going to screw him over with another hard cap for spending but seems like the Cubs should be able to afford at least 1 long term deal. If it turns into another Heyward, it shouldn't be something that destroys the Cubs chances to contend in the future.

 

I just don't like the idea of having this unbreakable rule that the Cubs cant sign anyone for more than 4 years.

[Bertz]

To me though, my read on Jed's drawing the line on five/six years is that Swanson becomes the guy. I mentioned this a few weeks ago but he helps make a lot of other pieces fit together better. Right now it's a tough puzzle to get a SS, two SPs, extend Nico, and address both of 1B/CF. But save ~$10M at short and suddenly you can more realistically address the full to do list.

 

Maybe this is my coping mechanism then because boy do I really not like giving Swanson 20+ million. It could make sense for say, the Phillies, but this team is so low on firepower that spending that chunk of change on a guy with 1 full season of above average hitting to his name just strikes me as a different flavor of the Jeff Blauser mistake from all those years ago. I'd honestly rather just spread it all around and/or take more chances on prospects coming through.

 

Yeah I think I'd probably just try to go quality everywhere else and punt on shortstop. Something similar to what you laid out, probably with a more primo SP in lieu of the Happ extension?

 

But Jed alluded to adding a shortstop during his end of season interview tour. Talking up the importance of having a primo defensive 2B along with SS again because of no shift, etc. I know he doesn't do the patented Theo "I'm gonna leave a trail of breadcrumbs to my offseason master plan" move with his end of season chat but the implication still sounded pretty clear IMO. He also REALLY talked up adding power, which setting Judge aside is best done at short this winter. I'd be really surprised if Jed punted on the position this winter.

 

I'm hoping that the talk about Jed's reticence on years is more nuanced than what we're hearing. Like for instance, I think it makes sense to limit the number of multi-year deals handed out? Or as you've mentioned before limiting post-prime years. But like Correa projects as a 5 WAR player next year at age 28. Would a 5 year deal to a 3 WAR player really be that much less risky?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think this is *likely* because I think Hoyer loves the comp pick as much as he loves shorter term deals, but it does make me wonder again about Nimmo. I don't think he's going to be a steal, but between the comp pick, his top line salary demands, and his injury history there's a lot of teams that could get weeded out of that sweepstakes. If he starts looking at being more of a 4/95 type guy, I wonder if the front office might see that as a good fit.

 

1. He's a LHH that can really hit. Career 134 wRC+(for comparison Correa is 130), and since the pandemic he's had plus BB/K numbers to go with it.

2. He fills a spot of need in CF, especially if they don't love Morel out there(Morel's history and MLB metrics would agree). UZR doesn't love Nimmo but OAA thinks he's plus, and worst case he has the bat to slide to LF and allow PCA to be the one to replace Happ to continue to prioritize defense.

3. His injury history is potentially a gamble worth taking. Here's Nimmo's fWAR per 150 games the last 5 seasons: 5.4, 5.4, 4.6, 3.0, 5.1 for an average of 4.7(for comparison Correa is 5.3). Yes, you run the risk that he doesn't accrue value like another player, but OF is a place where the existing floor is decent and you can take that risk as the cost of getting a manageable contract for a player with star-level production.

 

He would also make sense in the context of other rumors being tossed around. Abreu + Nimmo are two excellent bats to add from each side of the plate that bring damage without a lot of plate approach risk, and Senga + Smyly/Kluber/etc would seem to match up from an AAV perspective to fit all of that(plus a C & RP help) safely under the LT.

[Backtobanks]

I don't think this is *likely* because I think Hoyer loves the comp pick as much as he loves shorter term deals, but it does make me wonder again about Nimmo. I don't think he's going to be a steal, but between the comp pick, his top line salary demands, and his injury history there's a lot of teams that could get weeded out of that sweepstakes. If he starts looking at being more of a 4/95 type guy, I wonder if the front office might see that as a good fit.

 

1. He's a LHH that can really hit. Career 134 wRC+(for comparison Correa is 130), and since the pandemic he's had plus BB/K numbers to go with it.

2. He fills a spot of need in CF, especially if they don't love Morel out there(Morel's history and MLB metrics would agree). UZR doesn't love Nimmo but OAA thinks he's plus, and worst case he has the bat to slide to LF and allow PCA to be the one to replace Happ to continue to prioritize defense.

3. His injury history is potentially a gamble worth taking. [glow=red]Here's Nimmo's fWAR per 150 games the last 5 seasons: 5.4, 5.4, 4.6, 3.0, 5.1 for an average of 4.7[/glow](for comparison Correa is 5.3). Yes, you run the risk that he doesn't accrue value like another player, but OF is a place where the existing floor is decent and you can take that risk as the cost of getting a manageable contract for a player with star-level production.

 

He would also make sense in the context of other rumors being tossed around. Abreu + Nimmo are two excellent bats to add from each side of the plate that bring damage without a lot of plate approach risk, and Senga + Smyly/Kluber/etc would seem to match up from an AAV perspective to fit all of that(plus a C & RP help) safely under the LT.

 

There's a lot to love about Nimmo, but the injury history is very worrisome. Your quote about his fWAR per 150 games is deceiving because he only approached 150 games once in his career and never even came close in all of the other years.

[Cubswin11]

No interest in Nimmo with his history if he’s taking a 9 figure deal/costing a pick. But with everything else, early as can be in the offseason and everyone is getting their talking/negotiation points out there so who knows what’s real or not. Also that Full Count Tommy guy is kinda an idiot and says a lot of stupid horsefeathers/gives dumb opinions on reports.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I don't think this is *likely* because I think Hoyer loves the comp pick as much as he loves shorter term deals, but it does make me wonder again about Nimmo. I don't think he's going to be a steal, but between the comp pick, his top line salary demands, and his injury history there's a lot of teams that could get weeded out of that sweepstakes. If he starts looking at being more of a 4/95 type guy, I wonder if the front office might see that as a good fit.

 

1. He's a LHH that can really hit. Career 134 wRC+(for comparison Correa is 130), and since the pandemic he's had plus BB/K numbers to go with it.

2. He fills a spot of need in CF, especially if they don't love Morel out there(Morel's history and MLB metrics would agree). UZR doesn't love Nimmo but OAA thinks he's plus, and worst case he has the bat to slide to LF and allow PCA to be the one to replace Happ to continue to prioritize defense.

3. His injury history is potentially a gamble worth taking. [glow=red]Here's Nimmo's fWAR per 150 games the last 5 seasons: 5.4, 5.4, 4.6, 3.0, 5.1 for an average of 4.7[/glow](for comparison Correa is 5.3). Yes, you run the risk that he doesn't accrue value like another player, but OF is a place where the existing floor is decent and you can take that risk as the cost of getting a manageable contract for a player with star-level production.

 

He would also make sense in the context of other rumors being tossed around. Abreu + Nimmo are two excellent bats to add from each side of the plate that bring damage without a lot of plate approach risk, and Senga + Smyly/Kluber/etc would seem to match up from an AAV perspective to fit all of that(plus a C & RP help) safely under the LT.

 

There's a lot to love about Nimmo, but the injury history is very worrisome. Your quote about his fWAR per 150 games is deceiving because he only approached 150 games once in his career and never even came close in all of the other years.

Yeah, I gotta side with Stu on this one. Although 2020 he did hit 55 games, which is almost 150. And he hit 140 when he was at an age when he should have been able to play a full 190.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I hate extending Happ.

Yep, me too. I think his absolute ceiling is what he did last year, but he is unlikely to repeat that performance and he is only a year plus away from being 30 years old. It feels like any extension at this stage is going to be an overpay. Not that it has to be one or the other, but I would much rather lock Nico up now and take a wait and see approach with Happ.

[CubinNY]

Why do I feel like this is the same melody with different lyrics with the Ricketts?

 

2022 #1 hit: The time is not right to spend a lot of money.

 

2023 #1 hit: These guys want too many years

 

Not a good way to start the offseason.

Edited November 10, 2022 by CubinNY

[Irrelevant Dude]

Why do I feel like this is the same melody with different lyrics with the Ricketts?

Gotta wait for that new core to develop, while they all suffer significant freak injuries and push the timeline back even further.

[David]