2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Re: Canario’s major injury last night in the LIDOM:

 

Beyond that, it also impacts how team president Jed Hoyer could address holes on his roster this winter. Canario could have helped the team with his performance, but because of the Cubs’ prospect depth (particularly with outfielders), he could have been part of a bigger trade to bring in win-now talent. Sources with other teams indicated they’d begun advanced scouting of Canario over the final months of the minor-league season in preparation for potential trades. Teams with surplus major-league pitching seemed to be particularly interested.

 

https://theathletic.com/3740759/2022/10/28/cubs-prospects-alexander-canario-brennen-davis/

[Gilby]

I've been playing with the baseball savant defensive positioning graphics: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/batter-positioning?playerId=621020&teamId=144&opponent=&firstBase=0&shift=1&season=2022&attempts=10&batSide=R&gb=1&fb=0.

 

Regarding the big free agent SS, looks like Swanson might benefit the most from the shift rule changes. I know shifts aren't totally going away but you can see where the 2B normally plays him, and they'd have to move over. In 2022, Swanson had a .289 wOBA in 223 PA's vs a shift and a .360 wOBA in 473 PA's vs no shift. In 2021 though, his numbers weren't worse when shifted. It does look like his % shifted against was a lot higher than the other 3 SS. I just thought it was kinda interesting, as I'm trying to talk myself into liking Swanson more than I previously did since I don't see Jed doing an 8+ year deal.

[Bertz]

 

While clearly the Cubs will be looking at DH types, I don't know if they are going to want a guy who can't play any defense at all. But JD's still a very legit hitter.

[cl smooth]

 

Uhhhhh is Stroman Team Kyrie?

[Cubswin11]

 

Uhhhhh is Stroman Team Kyrie?

Appears so. Disappointing to say the least.

 

[UMFan83]

 

Uhhhhh is Stroman Team Kyrie?

Appears so. Disappointing to say the least.

 

 

smh...

[17 Seconds]

stroman has been a known dumbass for a long time

[Transmogrified Tiger]

All I need is one random person claiming he can play a legit CF and I’ll be on board to an obnoxious level

[UK]

All I need is one random person claiming he can play a legit CF and I’ll be on board to an obnoxious level

 

You'll be disappointed. He's a fringy LF'er.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

okay but if I put this tweet I found from buffaloesorix43928491842 through google translate it says he is a peerless defender with the heart of a condor, so seems like there's good arguments on both sides

[UK]

okay but if I put this tweet I found from buffaloesorix43928491842 through google translate it says he is a peerless defender with the heart of a condor, so seems like there's good arguments on both sides

 

I'm now sold.

 

https://en.yakyudb.com/players/view/9001.S32iaaaaab

 

Edit: I don't if B as your blood type is good for the heart of a condor or why that would be in an internet scouting report.

[Bertz]

 

This is a fun idea. Baseball Trade Values says Stanton's contract is $115M in the red. That seems a little harsh, but even if it's closer to $100M, I'd be pretty ecstatic to take Stanton if the Yankees are covering 70+% of his salary.

 

Maybe something where the Cubs pay ~$20M each of the next two years, while the Yankees cover everything else? Yankees get some fairly sizable short term salary relief, the Cubs get their infusion of power and the ability to painlessly peace out either after '24 or once he shows he's no longer viable.

[Bertz]

 

Good stuff, hopefully they moved up the arb deadline too. A lot of recent offseasons have been slowed because these administrative dates come so slow and late.

[CubinNY]

Let's go!

[Bertz]

 

The crowdsourced numbers are historically always a little low, but directionally correct. So if you want a mental model of what guys are going to get take those numbers and add $1-2M of AAV and for a few of the bigger contracts maybe an extra year.

[Tim]

Thanks - that's a handy list.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes, I've been waiting for these. Some quick reactions:

 

- Nothing in the Turner/Correa contracts that scares me away, I'm happy to see it's not assumed they'll get all the way to 35M on top of mega-years.

 

- I'm pretty intrigued by the consensus of where Bell is going to be, if it's at all possible he gets to the 2/25 range that could be a pretty smart move

 

- If Rodon ends up being accurate that's probably at the edge of what I'd consider possible that Jed would hand a FA SP, so fun to at least have that as a hypothetically realistic option.

 

- Like seeing no 5 years or > 15M for Senga

 

- Kiermaier getting a little more than I'd hope to see, but not dramatically so. Maybe the injury scares some teams off?

 

- The Narvaez/Vazquez contracts look fair and reasonable

[Bertz]

Yes, I've been waiting for these. Some quick reactions:

 

- Nothing in the Turner/Correa contracts that scares me away, I'm happy to see it's not assumed they'll get all the way to 35M on top of mega-years.

 

- I'm pretty intrigued by the consensus of where Bell is going to be, if it's at all possible he gets to the 2/25 range that could be a pretty smart move

 

- If Rodon ends up being accurate that's probably at the edge of what I'd consider possible that Jed would hand a FA SP, so fun to at least have that as a hypothetically realistic option.

 

- Like seeing no 5 years or > 15M for Senga

 

- Kiermaier getting a little more than I'd hope to see, but not dramatically so. Maybe the injury scares some teams off?

 

- The Narvaez/Vazquez contracts look fair and reasonable

 

Yeah a lot of promising signs for Jed here. Eyeballing the list the team could do something like

 

Turner, Senga, Bell, Heaney, Narvaez

 

For about $80M. Like you've mentioned previously that's probably a bit on the high end of what we could see spent this winter, but that's some talent. Maybe throw an extra year at somebody and try to get down closer to $75M? Jed would still need to address CF and the bullpen on a shoestring (likely via trade), but something like this provides some serious reinforcements.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

 

I....don't think this is how it works? A couple of the quote tweets confidently refer to taking the present value of deferrals and incorporating that into the AAV/CBT calc, which might change it but only in a very minor sense. If Diaz's CBT number isn't 20, I think it should be pretty close to 20(especially in the current interest rate environment, as one QT notes).

[fromthestretch]

 

Yeah a lot of promising signs for Jed here. Eyeballing the list the team could do something like

 

Turner, Senga, Bell, Heaney, Narvaez

 

For about $80M. Like you've mentioned previously that's probably a bit on the high end of what we could see spent this winter, but that's some talent. Maybe throw an extra year at somebody and try to get down closer to $75M? Jed would still need to address CF and the bullpen on a shoestring (likely via trade), but something like this provides some serious reinforcements.

 

 

If you could get Bellinger for cheaper than Bell though, wouldn't that make more sense? I know there's more uncertainty around Bellinger's bat, but defensively, he gives you more versatility than Bell, especially with his ability to play CF well. That should free up some money for the bullpen at least.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Yeah a lot of promising signs for Jed here. Eyeballing the list the team could do something like

 

Turner, Senga, Bell, Heaney, Narvaez

 

For about $80M. Like you've mentioned previously that's probably a bit on the high end of what we could see spent this winter, but that's some talent. Maybe throw an extra year at somebody and try to get down closer to $75M? Jed would still need to address CF and the bullpen on a shoestring (likely via trade), but something like this provides some serious reinforcements.

 

 

If you could get Bellinger for cheaper than Bell though, wouldn't that make more sense? I know there's more uncertainty around Bellinger's bat, but defensively, he gives you more versatility than Bell, especially with his ability to play CF well. That should free up some money for the bullpen at least.

 

I don't think there's a whole lot of difference in Bellinger's 1 year deal and a 12-13M AAV for Bell. You do gain the defensive flexibility and competency at a premium position, but you also lose the offensive certainty, BB/K profile, and can more easily hide a lesser player in CF via Morel.

[Cubswin11]

I have no interest in Bell

[Bertz]

 

Chicago Cubs

Some injuries to key prospects dings the confidence in this prediction, but the Cubs will make a big trade for an established starting pitcher to lead their rotation. -Sahadev Sharma

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Chicago Cubs

Some injuries to key prospects dings the confidence in this prediction, but the Cubs will make a big trade for an established starting pitcher to lead their rotation. -Sahadev Sharma

 

I'm always curious who qualifies in writers' heads for that type of subjective filter. Someone like Bieber qualifies without question. Does Pablo Lopez? Not sure who else would be in that pool of players that has had any type of trade chatter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A couple other predictions stood out:

 

- Their D’Backs prediction is trading one of the LHH CF capable OFs. They say Varsho, the oldest and only arb eligible of the bunch, is likely untouchable which seems like these people don’t read what they’re usually writing

 

Varsho is 26, has 4 years of control, and was the best player on the roster last year by fWAR(and best OF by a long ways). It's never been clear why they'd entertain trade offers for him unless they were confident he was about to tank, when has that type of trade happened before?