2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Tryptamine]

Boss is out of the office so, let's kill some time.

 

I'm not going to trade Madrigal simply because the return isn't going to be much and I think he's a solid bet to be a 2 to 3fWAR. After July 1st a he put up a 95 wRC+ on a .308 babip while his season numbers were a 70 wRC+ and .286 babip.

 

Conforto 3/48

 

Cubs acquire Sean Murphy for Thompson, Alcantara and Hernandez(This is probably a prospect light)

 

I'm not convinced he's willing to be a full time DH, but if he is, then Abreu 3/54

 

Smyly 2/14

 

Senga 5/75

 

Correa 8/250

 

 

 

 

 

1B: Mervis

2B: Madrigal

SS: Hoerner

3B: Correa

RF: Suzuki

CF: Happ

LF: Conforto

C: Murphy

DH: Abreu

 

I actually quite like this. A lot more pop than the 2022 squad and significant defensive upgrades in Correa/Murphy.

 

SP: Stroman, Senga, Steele, Smyly, Hendricks

 

The staff isn't great but solid and with Killian/Wicks/Wesneski all likely to see innings in 2023 and Sampson a capable fill in, the depth is really good.

 

Why would Abreu get more money than he did 3 years ago?

 

Because I typo'd 45 into 54 and didn't notice it

[Bertz]

I think this is a good way of describing the options. I really want to think the answer is B, it means they aren't committing long years to a less reliable class of player, and it leans on their existing strength to be a competitive team since they don't have to not spend on pitching in following years. The thing that sticks in my mind about being an intentional strategy is how specific the news has been about Smyly. If you aren't investing much $$ in pitching, is giving Smyly 2/14 or similar really the way to spend minimal pitching funds? Maybe they just love their existing group so much and they think they can buy low on someone like Daniel Lynch or a very cheap FA that they aren't worried about adding a surefire playoff series starter. If they were particularly confident about Hendricks and/or Wesneski that could at least have some internal logic, but if you're only spending ~10 million on SP, that is probably not how I would do it.

 

EDIT: I guess the other thing that informs my thinking here is I'm skeptical they're going to spend the prospect capital to make a trade for a SP clearly better than Smyly, like Lopez. The ones I can see them making(like Marquez) are for guys with big enough salary numbers to not stay within the 'not investing $$ in SP' lines.

 

Yeah it's really tough to say. It feels like A aligns more generally with Jed's historical approach, while B seems to fit better with the recent rhetoric coming out of the org.

 

I agree that just punting on established pitching seems unlikely. Jed clearly loves Hottovy and Breslow and believes they have the secret sauce, but even still I don't see Drew Smyly headlining the offseason from the pitching side. Like the Dodgers last winter, who knew they had something with both Heaney and Anderson, also signed Kershaw and Danny Duffy and kept David Price in the bullpen.

 

I'm going back and forth about how skeptical to be of a big trade, specifically I'm wondering about Brennen Davis. PCA is clearly the golden boy of the org now, while Canario and Davis are two guys who feature the exact same profile and the exact same ETA as each other. If you think short term Canario and Davis are mostly redundant and medium-long term PCA is your guy, you could probably get quite a bit of pitching by cashing in Davis this winter without impacting the long outlook appreciably. Like eyeballing BTV, Davis is in the ballpark value-wise of guys like Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Brady Singer, Tarik Skubal, etc. And aside from Lopez you're getting at least three years of team control on any of those so it's not like that's a major mortgage the future move. I don't think Jed wants to piss away a bunch of prospect talent, but I do wonder if you're making him choose if he'd rather preserve financial flexibility.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm going back and forth about how skeptical to be of a big trade, specifically I'm wondering about Brennen Davis. PCA is clearly the golden boy of the org now, while Canario and Davis are two guys who feature the exact same profile and the exact same ETA as each other. If you think short term Canario and Davis are mostly redundant and medium-long term PCA is your guy, you could probably get quite a bit of pitching by cashing in Davis this winter without impacting the long outlook appreciably. Like eyeballing BTV, Davis is in the ballpark value-wise of guys like Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Brady Singer, Tarik Skubal, etc. And aside from Lopez you're getting at least three years of team control on any of those so it's not like that's a major mortgage the future move. I don't think Jed wants to piss away a bunch of prospect talent, but I do wonder if you're making him choose if he'd rather preserve financial flexibility.

 

That's an interesting thought, and I think it could come down to what the defensive evaluation looks like. Third parties seem to have Davis as a capable CF but probably more plus in a corner. Happ is probably a decent minds-eye approximation here. If you're thinking that you care enough defense to not want Davis as a long term CF, and maybe you're really confident in PCA being that guy soon or even Morel's ability to be Davis-caliber defensively in the short run, then yeah I think you can probably arbitrage Davis pretty well when you have Canario sitting right there having a similar pattern of success(and some loud tools of his own). Doing that for *pitching* feels like a weird step though and I would still be surprised to see that happen. But if Devers comes available, or they really believe in Sean Murphy as the long term C, or there's a somewhat surprising SP trade candidate(someone with big enough stuff/success/control, e.g. McLanahan, Manoah, Gilbert), I could see that being the bet being made about the OF logjam.

[Tim]

Just want to keep hammering it home that Canario's not actually as good a prospect as Davis, not even close really. It's like tomato/tomahtoing Kris Bryant and prospect Alec Bohm from 2019-2021 because there's some surface similarities plus the former was in a position to be criticized while the latter praised. Also if the latest and greatest crown jewel of the farm system is still in the low minors with a near 6:1 K/BB in High A but everyone's on board anyway, proooobably not the worst time to sell

I'm not going to try re-hashing the first part of this with you since I don't feel that Canario is a better prospect than Davis.

 

But I'm trying to figure out what the heck you're talking about with the last sentence. Ed Howard with a 5.5% BB / 30.1% K last year?

[Tim]

Sorry - Ed was Low A. :)

[Tim]

I can only guess that you're actually talking about Canario's stint in High A last year with your reference to the "latest crown jewel". Which is a statement that literally nobody on here is making. Please quote any post that is saying so.

 

As for the 6:1 k/bb ratio...he had a 5.5% bb rate and a 25.3% k rate. Which makes for a 4.60 k/bb ratio. Definitely not ideal. Also definitely not 6:1.

 

People would take your posts a lot more seriously if you didn't exaggerate most everything you say.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He's talking about PCA.

[Tim]

He's talking about PCA.

Ah! With the 4.9% and 24% rates and 4.89 k/bb ratio.

 

Got it.

[Tim]

But I'm trying to figure out what the heck you're talking about with the last sentence. Ed Howard with a 5.5% BB / 30.1% K last year?

 

Ed Howard had a 9% BB / 20% K rate @ High A this year...Oh boi

Sorry - my confusion was that he's the only big prospect in the system with a ratio over five in A ball the past couple years. He was showing a lot of improvement this season before the injury. I really hope he comes back strong next spring.

[Tim]

my confusion

 

Call it a hunch but I don't think there was any confusion. Also don't see the relevance of Howard's 2021 towards PCA's 2022 :dontknow: ....6...4.89...are either of these untouchable golden boy good?

PCA also had a 3:2 K/BB ratio in MB this year, and was at a much more reasonable 3:1 ratio in SB for the final month of the season. He is a really good prospect. If Ed Howard comes back strong from his injury and posts an ISO 2.5 times as high as he ever has before while still playing great defense up the middle, then he'll be a really good prospect, too.

[Tim]

I honestly had no idea you had swapped from talking about Canario and Davis to talking about PCA in the middle of that paragraph without mentioning PCA by name.

[champaignchris]

Is Abreu really going to be that expensive when Nelson Cruz got a single year guaranteed at $15 with a mutual second year option last year?

 

Coming off the major power outage of a year he just had and given his age, I’d guess he’d be closer to Rizzo’s 2-year, $32.

[Bertz]

Is Abreu really going to be that expensive when Nelson Cruz got a single year guaranteed at $15 with a mutual second year option last year?

 

Coming off the major power outage of a year he just had and given his age, I’d guess he’d be closer to Rizzo’s 2-year, $32.

 

On the one hand he's a pretty blah defender and gonna be 36 and a RH hitter without elite power. On the other hand he was worth 3.9 WAR this year even while Statcast says he was a little unlucky, and he's supposedly a ++ clubhouse guy.

 

I think a healthy AAV is almost a certainty, and the big question is whether he can find someone to give him a 3rd year (hopefully not us).

[squally1313]

FTR on Abreu a RHH 1B/DH with high GBs rates and bad defense is a terrible fit and it’s probably noise. Like if you’re open to Abreu at all then Contreras as a C/DH/1B during the life of an extension should have tons of appeal

 

If you're open to a superior hitter for a shorter, cheaper contract, a worse hitter for longer and more money should have tons of appeal. Am I doing this right?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If I could sign Abreu or Contreras to identical short term contracts as a 1B/DH, I would lean towards Contreras because of age, even though Abreu has been a more productive hitter each of the last 3 years. They will not have the option to choose between Abreu and Contreras signing identical short term contracts, and part of the reason Contreras is functionally gone is that the front office doesn't value him as a catcher while he is not interested in being next-gen Nick Castellanos positionally, so it's a fairly pointless comparison to make.

[squally1313]

FTR on Abreu a RHH 1B/DH with high GBs rates and bad defense is a terrible fit and it’s probably noise. Like if you’re open to Abreu at all then Contreras as a C/DH/1B during the life of an extension should have tons of appeal

 

If you're open to a superior hitter for a shorter, cheaper contract, a worse hitter for longer and more money should have tons of appeal. Am I doing this right?

 

In what reality is a soon to be 36 YO RHH 1B/DH coming off a 15 HR season in nearly 700 PAs a superior option to Conteras? You can’t be serious and/or surely no one call fall for cheap tricks. There’s no meaningful gap btw his .361

wOBA / 137 wRC+ to Contreras’ .357 / 132 given the massive gaps in defensive value, this should be obvious to anyone willing to do

more than just recite or seem momentarily clever

Ugh. Fine. We started with GB rates, of which Contreras carries a higher one, both in 2022 and his career. We can talk about xSLG, where Contreras is in the 85th percentile and Abreu is in the 92nd. Average exit velocity is 76% to 93%. There's a significant K rate gap, again in Abreu's favor. Abreu's career 133 wRC+ is better than any single season Contreras has. Contreras is, the last time I checked, also a RHH, so not sure why that keeps getting mentioned. Contreras vs Abreu for 2 years? Sure, good debate, probably lean Contreras. Tack on having to pay $60m for the three years after that? Pass.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- You’re getting ages 31-35 from Contreras v 36-37, maybe 38 from Abreu

 

- The gap in AAVs on any deal of any length will be negligible

 

- If they value Abreu the hitter as is at 1B/DH, then any not caring about Contreras’ glove at catcher is covered by being a catcher capable DH…One type of /DH is significantly and obviously more Valuable than the other here

 

- One DH just hit 15 HRs in 679 PAs as a part time 1B, the other 22 in 487 as a part time catcher

 

See…Easy peasy…Prb could keep going even

 

For filling this particular roster spot, there is a large difference in magnitude of investment in giving Contreras 4/75 vs. giving Abreu 2/32, and those estimates are probably more conservative for Contreras than they are for Abreu(at least in years). The 3rd and 4th year belonging to a younger player doesn't change that they'll be ages 33 and 34 for a guy with about 1000 pro games of catching wear on his body.

 

More importantly, what makes this pointless is that the front office is not interested in Contreras as a catcher capable DH, and Contreras is not interested in being a 1B/LF/DH. If the front office were enthusiastic about Contreras the catcher, they'd be pursuing him independent of Abreu because they need to add a catcher anyway or are knowingly underinvesting in the position.

[Derwood]

Where has there been any indication that Contreras would move to 1B next year?

[Derwood]

Where has there been any indication that Contreras would move to 1B next year?

 

Besides being a thing no one’s said…1B is one of 7 positions Contreras has spent MLB time at. Not once has he said he is solely a catcher, nor

is an offensive catcher in his 30s playing some 1B something unique

 

You've implied it by making Abreu vs. Contreras a binary decision

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Curious how folks feel about one of the possible position player tradeoffs. To my eyes, the two position player needs aside from star IF and catching help are 1B/DH/"Bat", and CF help that is ideally defensively strong. With the aforementioned IF, C, and pitching help, it seems likely that you'll have to choose one to invest significant resources in while going cheaper with the other. So would you rather have:

 

1)Greater investment in a bat(e.g. Abreu, Josh Bell, Wil Myers) and less investment in the CF(there's a bunch of cheap LHH defensive CF that K too much: Phillips, Quinn, Zimmer, etc)

 

2)Greater investment in the CF(e.g. Bellinger, Nimmo if his market isn't strong), and go cheaper on the bat(find another Frazier/Reyes, maybe Tellez)

 

 

There are probably ways to split the difference a bit(e.g. Kiermaier and Mancini), but I'm more interested in if people feel strongly about which one should be prioritized.

[Tim]

Aesthetically, I'd prefer to win 10-6 games. All other things being equal.

[Backtobanks]

Curious how folks feel about one of the possible position player tradeoffs. To my eyes, the two position player needs aside from star IF and catching help are 1B/DH/"Bat", and CF help that is ideally defensively strong. With the aforementioned IF, C, and pitching help, it seems likely that you'll have to choose one to invest significant resources in while going cheaper with the other. So would you rather have:

 

1)Greater investment in a bat(e.g. Abreu, Josh Bell, Wil Myers) and less investment in the CF(there's a bunch of cheap LHH defensive CF that K too much: Phillips, Quinn, Zimmer, etc)

 

2)Greater investment in the CF(e.g. Bellinger, Nimmo if his market isn't strong), and go cheaper on the bat(find another Frazier/Reyes, maybe Tellez)

 

 

There are probably ways to split the difference a bit(e.g. Kiermaier and Mancini), but I'm more interested in if people feel strongly about which one should be prioritized.

 

Bellinger trying to rebuild his value could be the solution to a few of those problems (CF/!B/"bat"/DH) or he could really be bad, but it might be worth a shot in CF. Obviously, trading for Ohtani would be the best solution.

[JeffH]

Curious how folks feel about one of the possible position player tradeoffs. To my eyes, the two position player needs aside from star IF and catching help are 1B/DH/"Bat", and CF help that is ideally defensively strong. With the aforementioned IF, C, and pitching help, it seems likely that you'll have to choose one to invest significant resources in while going cheaper with the other. So would you rather have:

 

1)Greater investment in a bat(e.g. Abreu, Josh Bell, Wil Myers) and less investment in the CF(there's a bunch of cheap LHH defensive CF that K too much: Phillips, Quinn, Zimmer, etc)

 

2)Greater investment in the CF(e.g. Bellinger, Nimmo if his market isn't strong), and go cheaper on the bat(find another Frazier/Reyes, maybe Tellez)

 

 

There are probably ways to split the difference a bit(e.g. Kiermaier and Mancini), but I'm more interested in if people feel strongly about which one should be prioritized.

 

Option 1.

 

Offense, offense, offense. Please, please, please.

 

Actually, I'd prefer BOTH Turner and Bogaerts, plus a 1B/DH bat. Then go bargain shopping for pitching. While acknowledging that this isn't realistic.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Beyond that I don't really see it as an either/or situation going in. That's something they have to manufacture/trap themselves into by only being focused on free agency. Trades as a route of improvement are being massively downplayed

 

I didn't list trade candidates to avoid getting too bogged down in what folks thought were possible options/reasonable prices, but I did frame this as 'investment' because I think the same dynamic holds true with the trade market. They aren't going to run a 300 million dollar payroll and they aren't going to trade half their Top 10 prospects, and moving downwards from that extreme example they will need to make some tradeoff on whether they use marginal players/money on plugging one hole vs. another. Yes there are probably trade candidates who are better bets than others without breaking the bank, but there's also buy low free agents(one example being our near universal interest in a non-tendered Bellinger) and ultimately there's a sacrifice of some certainty or ceiling in doing so.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bellinger's kind of an interesting situation. What's the price you bow out on buy low? He can probably ask for $20 million in FA just on being a plus defensive CF with a high ceiling, LH bat still in his 20s

 

Without thinking too deeply about it, I'd say 10-12 million. If he can get to 20 million then my guess is he won't be non-tendered because the Dodgers could extract at least something for him on his Arb 3 salary if the market is that strong.