Winning in 2023

[Gilby]

My 2023 plan that seems possible:

 

To start, I think with the way he's hit recently, being right-handed, and can't play defense, Reyes is back in the non-tendered zone. Additionally, I think Morel would benefit from starting the year in AAA to work on offense obviously, and infield defense. I'd also consider going with a 6 man rotation in the beginning to try to keep everyone healthy which was an issue this year and to help with Senga's transition (is it still a thing in the NPB that those pitchers pitch once a week?).

 

Signings:

Omar Narvaez

Kiermaier

Correa

Kodai Senga

Re-sign (or pickup that mysterious option) Smyly

A few Bullpen guys

Trade for Ji Man Choi

 

 

Main Position players

C Narvaez/Gomes

1B Wisdom/Choi

2B Madrigal/McKinstry/Bote (with the hope of Morel eventually)

SS Nico

3B Correa

LF Happ

CF Kiermaier

RF Suzuki

DH Mervis

 

SP

Stroman

Steele

Senga

Smyly

Hendricks

Sampson or Wesneski

 

Bullpen

Thompson

Alzolay

Hughes

Leiter

Wick?

Other guys

[Bertz]

My 2023 plan that seems possible:

 

To start, I think with the way he's hit recently, being right-handed, and can't play defense, Reyes is back in the non-tendered zone. Additionally, I think Morel would benefit from starting the year in AAA to work on offense obviously, and infield defense. I'd also consider going with a 6 man rotation in the beginning to try to keep everyone healthy which was an issue this year and to help with Senga's transition (is it still a thing in the NPB that those pitchers pitch once a week?).

 

Signings:

Omar Narvaez

Kiermaier

Correa

Kodai Senga

Re-sign (or pickup that mysterious option) Smyly

A few Bullpen guys

Trade for Ji Man Choi

 

 

Main Position players

C Narvaez/Gomes

1B Wisdom/Choi

2B Madrigal/McKinstry/Bote (with the hope of Morel eventually)

SS Nico

3B Correa

LF Happ

CF Kiermaier

RF Suzuki

DH Mervis

 

SP

Stroman

Steele

Senga

Smyly

Hendricks

Sampson or Wesneski

 

Bullpen

Thompson

Alzolay

Hughes

Leiter

Wick?

Other guys

 

I have some quibbles, but I think this is in the neighborhood of what I'm expecting this winter. The big one, and I know I'm in the minority, but I kind of hate holding onto Smyly. I also am pretty unfazed by Morel's issues in the second half here, but I don't think there would be anything too egregious about getting him a month at Iowa.

 

The team's at ~$140M for payroll going into the winter if we assume the Franimal is non-tendered. Correa adds ~$30, Senga another ~$20, plus another $15-20M for Narvaez and the bullpen. We know Jed likes to have money to throw around at the deadline, so even if spending up to the LT is on the table this year, you've probably only got another ~$15M to spend in the offseason. Probably a pick two scenario with Smyly/Choi/Kiermaier.

 

That's the tough choice this offseason, you probably have to just ride with internal options at one of C/CF/SP#2. I personally am very comfortable with the internal SP depth, and that's the way I'd go, but I think there's good arguments for and against not addressing each of the three.

[Gilby]

That starting payroll is a little higher than I had in my head; I'm fine removing Kiermaier and hoping the collection of outfield prospects can produce in CF

[Bertz]

 

Mooney says that the plan on the pitching front is possibly two Stroman-esque adds rather than one full on Ace. I'd assume that'd have to be one trade and one FA, something like Senga and Pablo Lopez? Otherwise, given that one of the shortstops sounds like fait accompli you'd have to push past the LT.

[Cubswin11]

 

Mooney says that the plan on the pitching front is possibly two Stroman-esque adds rather than one full on Ace. I'd assume that'd have to be one trade and one FA, something like Senga and Pablo Lopez? Otherwise, given that one of the shortstops sounds like fait accompli you'd have to push past the LT.

I think I’m okay with this move. Mitigates risk a bit and elevates the floor. Senga or Thor as a FA and Lopez or Glasnow (he’s making a start this week at hits final year of arb in the offseason so Rays being Rays may not want to pay him) as a trade target (sure other guys will pop up as being available like Snell) would be fine for me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't really see a huge practical difference in someone in the Stroman tier and an "ace", to be honest. Would I expect greater production from Rodon than I would of Stroman? Sure. But SP performance is variable enough as it is and with player dev helping pitchers unlock greater ceilings, I think as long as you're getting someone you're confident is a playoff starter, then it's as much a matter of personal preference as it is being efficient with resources.

[CubinNY]

I don't really see a huge practical difference in someone in the Stroman tier and an "ace", to be honest. Would I expect greater production from Rodon than I would of Stroman? Sure. But SP performance is variable enough as it is and with player dev helping pitchers unlock greater ceilings, I think as long as you're getting someone you're confident is a playoff starter, then it's as much a matter of personal preference as it is being efficient with resources.

Given their track record, I'm bullish on the Cubs getting the most out of two good/better-quality pitchers. I don't want a 35-year-old Miley type, but short of that, sign me up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't really see a huge practical difference in someone in the Stroman tier and an "ace", to be honest. Would I expect greater production from Rodon than I would of Stroman? Sure. But SP performance is variable enough as it is and with player dev helping pitchers unlock greater ceilings, I think as long as you're getting someone you're confident is a playoff starter[/b], then it's as much a matter of personal preference as it is being efficient with resources.

 

Especially if the criteria is being *confident* this player is a playoff caliber SP, your options in FA are Rodon and a 40 YO Verlander

 

Also those first two sentences contradict each other, no? If you *expect* greater production from Rodon than a Stroman, then you see the practical difference

 

I'm probably not phrasing it well, but my point is that "ace" is an ultimately arbitrary distinction that 1) is not a hard requirement for a team to be competitive 2) not as predictive as some other high value acquisitions because of the nature of pitchers. Yes it's better to have a Rodon than a Stroman, but having a Stroman instead of a Rodon isn't a dire hole that needs to be filled in order to be good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Especially if the criteria is being *confident* this player is a playoff caliber SP, your options in FA are Rodon and a 40 YO Verlander

 

Also those first two sentences contradict each other, no? If you *expect* greater production from Rodon than a Stroman, then you see the practical difference

 

I'm probably not phrasing it well, but my point is that "ace" is an ultimately arbitrary distinction that 1) is not a hard requirement for a team to be competitive 2) not as predictive as some other high value acquisitions because of the nature of pitchers. Yes it's better to have a Rodon than a Stroman, but having a Stroman instead of a Rodon isn't a dire hole that needs to be filled in order to be good.

 

Agreed, the Cubs should be shopping for skills, very specific skills even. I guess my new issue with where you're going is there's no redundancy in Stroman *and* Rodon. One's a sub-6' RH coming with 93-94 sinkers and a half dozen other pitches. The other's a 6'3" 230# 95-100 lefty with with two swing and miss offspeeds in the slider and changeup (a pitch he can throw significantly more often with his next team), occasionally a curve. There's tons of room for both, easy to make the case there's a dire need for the latter

 

From a skills perspective, there's no better FA fit for the rotation than Rodon. He's the hardest throwing *and* best (or highest performing to be less nebulous) SP available for a team with less velocity than any other team in baseball the past two years by a full MPH+ (#29 Twins are 91.7, Cubs 90.6), the fewest 5th lowest K%, the 2nd worst FIP, I'vegoneoverthistuff...Rodon covers all of that, and that's infinitely more important than whether you want to call him "ace" or not

 

I'm talking in generalities and less about specific players, hence the "a Rodon/a Stroman" phrasing. I'm not saying you don't need another good starter because you have Stroman, I'm saying that adding another starter of at least Stroman caliber is more important than ensuring you add an "ace"/Rodon caliber starter. There's multiple ways to do it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you think the "ace" thing is arbitrary, then what is "Stroman caliber?" How wide is that net? Stroman would pretty easily be the 3rd best FA SP this year behind Rodon and Verlander

 

Said another way, it's more important to get another 3+ win SP than it is for that starter to be a 4-5 win SP. The latter is obviously not a bad thing, but that starter being tippy top of the market or meeting "ace" requirements isn't the only way to building a competitor.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Are not the 4-5 WAR SPs also "3+" WAR SPs?

 

Yes, they also might require 50% higher AAV or not be interested in a team with uncertain competitive prospects, so there may be other reasonable paths to improving the team that allow for other significant improvements.

[Bertz]

I'm very curious about the second SP, and what exactly the thinking there is in terms of caliber of guy. I assume the team is not going over the luxury tax this year, so if the offseason plan already involves a substantial FA starter and one of the shortstops, which most rumoring have indicated, you're capped out at about $10M on this guy. I also assume that a major prospect trade probably isn't on the table, so as reasonable as something like PCA+ for Brady Singer or Tarik Skubal is, it's probably not likely. So what does that leave?

 

There are a couple of guys in trade I see in the goldilocks zone of low salary, modest prospect cost, and sufficient impact. Pablo Lopez, German Marquez, and if he's even made available Lucas Giolito. Those latter two have had rough seasons, but there's nothing that looks seriously wrong under the hood so I imagine Hottovy would have them fixed in 45 minutes.

 

There's also more upside plays. We know the Cubs really tried for Andrew Heaney last winter before the Dodgers scooped him up, and so maybe there's another FA or two that they see as being a tweak or two away from more impact performance. They could also go the trade route, Trevor Rogers looks like one of the more obvious pitch lab guys in the league, you could also look at some of the pitchers who have stalled out for the Tigers, Royals,

 

Lastly, there's also the possibility Jed just just goes for a boring back of the rotation guy. We know Mooney is a terrible writer, so him having taken liberties with the Stroman comp is maybe the most likely scenario. Smyly would seem to have the inside track here, given the chatter about how happy both sides are. I really hope this isn't the play, as I frankly don't really see the point of locking in on a #4 starter knowing that you have to rob the roster elsewhere for the resources, and if he's bad you can't just banish him to Iowa like you can a Wesneski.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm very curious about the second SP, and what exactly the thinking there is in terms of caliber of guy. I assume the team is not going over the luxury tax this year, so if the offseason plan already involves a substantial FA starter and one of the shortstops, which most rumoring have indicated, you're capped out at about $10M on this guy. I also assume that a major prospect trade probably isn't on the table, so as reasonable as something like PCA+ for Brady Singer or Tarik Skubal is, it's probably not likely. So what does that leave?

 

There are a couple of guys in trade I see in the goldilocks zone of low salary, modest prospect cost, and sufficient impact. Pablo Lopez, German Marquez, and if he's even made available Lucas Giolito. Those latter two have had rough seasons, but there's nothing that looks seriously wrong under the hood so I imagine Hottovy would have them fixed in 45 minutes.

 

There's also more upside plays. We know the Cubs really tried for Andrew Heaney last winter before the Dodgers scooped him up, and so maybe there's another FA or two that they see as being a tweak or two away from more impact performance. They could also go the trade route, Trevor Rogers looks like one of the more obvious pitch lab guys in the league, you could also look at some of the pitchers who have stalled out for the Tigers, Royals,

 

Lastly, there's also the possibility Jed just just goes for a boring back of the rotation guy. We know Mooney is a terrible writer, so him having taken liberties with the Stroman comp is maybe the most likely scenario. Smyly would seem to have the inside track here, given the chatter about how happy both sides are. I really hope this isn't the play, as I frankly don't really see the point of locking in on a #4 starter knowing that you have to rob the roster elsewhere for the resources, and if he's bad you can't just banish him to Iowa like you can a Wesneski.

 

I'm very bullish on Marquez, to the point where I think he's a possibility to be the first/primary SP. Part of that is the salary though, his post-trade LT number is north of 15 million and unless they trade for someone like a Lopez they'd be betting a lot of money on SP. Also, to your later point, Marquez isn't a clean fit in a bullpen role if he falters or others surpassed him, which is I think the answer to how you address that second SP. They need to either be cheap enough to move on from and/or be a good fit for a bullpen role if others outpitch them.

[JeffH]

I'm very curious about the second SP, and what exactly the thinking there is in terms of caliber of guy. I assume the team is not going over the luxury tax this year, so if the offseason plan already involves a substantial FA starter and one of the shortstops, which most rumoring have indicated, you're capped out at about $10M on this guy. I also assume that a major prospect trade probably isn't on the table, so as reasonable as something like PCA+ for Brady Singer or Tarik Skubal is, it's probably not likely. So what does that leave?

 

There are a couple of guys in trade I see in the goldilocks zone of low salary, modest prospect cost, and sufficient impact. Pablo Lopez, German Marquez, and if he's even made available Lucas Giolito. Those latter two have had rough seasons, but there's nothing that looks seriously wrong under the hood so I imagine Hottovy would have them fixed in 45 minutes.

 

There's also more upside plays. We know the Cubs really tried for Andrew Heaney last winter before the Dodgers scooped him up, and so maybe there's another FA or two that they see as being a tweak or two away from more impact performance. They could also go the trade route, Trevor Rogers looks like one of the more obvious pitch lab guys in the league, you could also look at some of the pitchers who have stalled out for the Tigers, Royals,

 

Lastly, there's also the possibility Jed just just goes for a boring back of the rotation guy. We know Mooney is a terrible writer, so him having taken liberties with the Stroman comp is maybe the most likely scenario. Smyly would seem to have the inside track here, given the chatter about how happy both sides are. I really hope this isn't the play, as I frankly don't really see the point of locking in on a #4 starter knowing that you have to rob the roster elsewhere for the resources, and if he's bad you can't just banish him to Iowa like you can a Wesneski.

 

I'm very bullish on Marquez, to the point where I think he's a possibility to be the first/primary SP. Part of that is the salary though, his post-trade LT number is north of 15 million and unless they trade for someone like a Lopez they'd be betting a lot of money on SP. Also, to your later point, Marquez isn't a clean fit in a bullpen role if he falters or others surpassed him, which is I think the answer to how you address that second SP. They need to either be cheap enough to move on from and/or be a good fit for a bullpen role if others outpitch them.

 

Did something change in the CBA? It didn't used to work that way.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm very curious about the second SP, and what exactly the thinking there is in terms of caliber of guy. I assume the team is not going over the luxury tax this year, so if the offseason plan already involves a substantial FA starter and one of the shortstops, which most rumoring have indicated, you're capped out at about $10M on this guy. I also assume that a major prospect trade probably isn't on the table, so as reasonable as something like PCA+ for Brady Singer or Tarik Skubal is, it's probably not likely. So what does that leave?

 

There are a couple of guys in trade I see in the goldilocks zone of low salary, modest prospect cost, and sufficient impact. Pablo Lopez, German Marquez, and if he's even made available Lucas Giolito. Those latter two have had rough seasons, but there's nothing that looks seriously wrong under the hood so I imagine Hottovy would have them fixed in 45 minutes.

 

There's also more upside plays. We know the Cubs really tried for Andrew Heaney last winter before the Dodgers scooped him up, and so maybe there's another FA or two that they see as being a tweak or two away from more impact performance. They could also go the trade route, Trevor Rogers looks like one of the more obvious pitch lab guys in the league, you could also look at some of the pitchers who have stalled out for the Tigers, Royals,

 

Lastly, there's also the possibility Jed just just goes for a boring back of the rotation guy. We know Mooney is a terrible writer, so him having taken liberties with the Stroman comp is maybe the most likely scenario. Smyly would seem to have the inside track here, given the chatter about how happy both sides are. I really hope this isn't the play, as I frankly don't really see the point of locking in on a #4 starter knowing that you have to rob the roster elsewhere for the resources, and if he's bad you can't just banish him to Iowa like you can a Wesneski.

 

I'm very bullish on Marquez, to the point where I think he's a possibility to be the first/primary SP. Part of that is the salary though, his post-trade LT number is north of 15 million and unless they trade for someone like a Lopez they'd be betting a lot of money on SP. Also, to your later point, Marquez isn't a clean fit in a bullpen role if he falters or others surpassed him, which is I think the answer to how you address that second SP. They need to either be cheap enough to move on from and/or be a good fit for a bullpen role if others outpitch them.

 

Did something change in the CBA? It didn't used to work that way.

 

Yes, I don't have a link handy but I've seen in a couple spots that LT number for traded players is now based on the contract remaining at the time of the trade. This is why the Padres trading Hosmer and basically paying his entire salary was worthwhile for them, his contract was 18M AAV (8/144) but the upcoming 3 years are only 13M AAV so they got 5 million of relief by trading him even when paying the Red Sox to take him.

[Bertz]

I'm very bullish on Marquez, to the point where I think he's a possibility to be the first/primary SP. Part of that is the salary though, his post-trade LT number is north of 15 million and unless they trade for someone like a Lopez they'd be betting a lot of money on SP. Also, to your later point, Marquez isn't a clean fit in a bullpen role if he falters or others surpassed him, which is I think the answer to how you address that second SP. They need to either be cheap enough to move on from and/or be a good fit for a bullpen role if others outpitch them.

 

Ah, I was wondering that about Marquez's salary. I remember there being some changes to this sort of situation in the new CBA but was fuzzy on the details.

 

I think Marquez as THE guy is a little scary, but not necessarily bad. Like I said I think whatever is wrong with him is probably something dumb or just general Coors difficulties. That said it'd be a little unnerving to have the main add for the rotation be coming off a 1.5 WAR season. As much as I've railed against two SPs, I probably embrace it in this case. But like you said maybe the way to think about the second guy is how bullpen-able he is. Lean towards guys like Lorenzen who have a successful relief history, or guys like Chris Archer who seem like a fit there. Maybe I need to rethink Smyly too, given his curveball and his success first time through the order as a starter.

[Bertz]

 

Just in case anyone doubts whether he'll opt out

[Cubswin11]

My biggest takeaway is, Billy Hamilton is still in the league?

[Andy]

My biggest takeaway is, Billy Hamilton is still in the league?

The only reason I knew that was because he played in the two Cubs/Marlins games I went to. It will not surprise you to learn he was completely hopeless at the plate each time he batted.

[David]

My biggest takeaway is, Billy Hamilton is still in the league?

The only reason I knew that was because he played in the two Cubs/Marlins games I went to. It will not surprise you to learn he was completely hopeless at the plate each time he batted.

 

against the cubs? that does surprise me

[Bertz]

After chewing on the idea for a few days after TT brought it up, I'm very much in on Marquez being SP#1 this winter. It's riskier than some of the other options, but it seems like the right call for a few reasons:

 

1. He's probably still as good or better than any of the second tier FAs. The three years prior to this one, Marquez averaged 3.8 WAR/180 IP. Yes this year has been down, but he's not lost any velo, so whatever has been at issue seems unlikely to be permanent. It looks like his spin is down on his curveball, but not his other pitches. I'm not a pitch design guy, but that screams grip/mechanical change, not permanent loss of ability. Marquez at his best is not going to approach the deGrom/Rodon/Verlander tier, but there's a very good chance he's better than anyone else available in FA.

 

2. The financials are a big plus. I expect a good bit of money to get thrown around this winter, but for the team to stay south of the luxury tax. That means ~$85M to play with. That's a lot, but if you're grabbing a SS and two SPs, there's definitely limits and you need to be willing to make some trade-offs. German is set to make 1/$15M, with a team option for another year. Going with him instead of say, Eovaldi, probably saves you about $5M in 2023 and significantly lessens the amount of long term dollars allocated

 

3. The prospect cost is probably not far off from a QO free agent, particularly if you trade someone off the 40 man. I think Marquez for Kilian seems like the most logical deal for both sides. Certainly the Rockies are bereft enough that the deal could come in many shapes, but let's assume Kilian. Weighing that against the second rounder you give up for a QO free agent, plus adding in the 40 man spot you open up, I think the value is close. The second rounder you lose is approximately pick #50, approximately where the Cubs nabbed Jackson Ferris and James Triantos the past two years. The 40 man spot saves whatever live arm in the upper minors is last off the list to be protected this winter. Someone like Ryan Jensen or Danis Correa. So all told, would you rather have Kilian or Jensen plus another Ferris? I'd say Kilian, but not by much

 

The Cubs appear to be one of the smart teams with pitching at this point, and even if they aren't they certainly fancy themselves to be. Let's see them use these powers in a more impactful way. Getting $10M returns on $5M investments like they did with Drew Smyly is nice, but the next step is getting top of the rotation returns on mid-rotation investments.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The other thing I'd add with Marquez is that he lines up to be a good match for an extension. He'll be 28 all next season, and if he pitches well you can try to sign him longer term without the ticking clock of FA thanks to the option. Most FA SP are hitting the market 2-3 years older, and you'd hope the team on an upward trend and an org that helped him regain or unlock better form would be an attractive destination.

 

The main downside I see is the chaos agent that is the Rockies front office. For as much as I think it may make sense to trade him, the Rockies might just decide they're gonna win the division next year and need him, or overvalue him since he's their only recent homegrown SP success story.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Get him + KB + 30 mil

 

Makes KB 6/120 to be our DH

[muntjack]

Yeah, we went from discussing Rodon to German Marquez as the big add very quickly.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

^^ To expand on that Marquez/Lorenzen thing...Jackson Kowar with the Royals averages close to 96, ran a 50% GB rate (in 15.2 MLB IP this year so very sss), below average league EV (87.5), 28% CSW, lg averages SwST, no major arm issues, not a high volume arm but has thrown 100+ innings btw MiLB and MLB the past two years, and has pitched like trash at the ML level (10.76 ERA, 6+ FIP,)...Mailhot on FGs described him as "particularly lost" among the Royals' struggling arms...Just to say that there are multiple directions they can go to get Marquez-esque tools without the expectations, trade cost, and contract despite similar overall risk (Marquez does have a 5.12 ERA/4.81 FIP this year)

 

I don't have a problem with Lorenzen or Kowar as 2nd SP additions, though I do have misgivings with each(Lorenzen having not thrown 100 IP/started 20 games since 2015, Kowar being unable to even get AAA hitters out this year in extended time). Bertz said it well that the name of the game is letting pitching infrastructure create opportunities to get more value than you spend, and those opportunities exist up and down the cost spectrum.

 

I do want to be clear on two parts of this though, one of which is that there's a magnitude of difference in certainty/proof of success with Marquez. Yes he's had a down year, but he's also averaged 3.5 wins/season until now and been a rock of durability on top of it, while pitching in Coors for an organization who thinks a pitch lab is for singers. He costs more because he's a substantially better bet.

 

The other part is that the motivation with Marquez is based on the point that there will eventually be a point of scarcity in the resources the team has available to get better, and you'll have to make tradeoffs. The argument for Marquez is that the team has plenty of reason to bet on their ability to level up pitchers, so on the margins they may be better off not paying 25+ million for the Rodons of the world(or the Degroms/Verlanders of the world if they would even want to come) and invest less in the rotation so they can better address the offense. Marquez is a compromise that doesn't gamble the success of the 2023 rotation on rehabbing a completely unproven player(while having at least small reason to think they could unlock another level for him) and lets the team ensure they get the star position player, catcher, etc that a playoff caliber team needs. Plus it aligns with investing big dollars into less volatile assets and not investing long term in pitchers, which on top of being a solid general practice appears to be aligned with how Jed is approaching roster building. It is far from the only way to go about it(I know you've been more keen on going big on SP signings and foregoing one of the SS if necessary), but that's the real tradeoff being made.