Winning in 2023

[chopsx9]

I get that you can't ignore all that sweet team control, but are we really going to let Chris 'I have a .616 OPS in the second half and +30% K rate for the year' Morel hold up any sort of plans to acquire all star level players?

Absolutely not - I don't think anybody would lose any sleep if Morel was the lead name in a trade for a star player - 0% chance of it happening in my opinion, but I'd be all in.

Edited September 15, 2022 by chopsx9

[chopsx9]

I'd be very surprised by a trade for someone like Devers. Feels like this is a year too early to go make a huge trade for a star, especially a walk year guy. I could see Ohtani, just because he's so special you've gotta make that sort of deal when it comes around, but a more "ordinary" star like Devers would shock me.

 

Something like Pablo Lopez feels like the top end of the non-Ohtani options I'd anticipate?

Why wouldn't Devers sign an extension as a condition of the trade? Is he a Boras client? I tried to look it up, but I couldn't find his agent. He's a perfect fit for what this team needs.

 

Is that even permitted - I didn't think it was - anyone??? The flip side of that is - if he could negotiate with a team prior to being traded to them why would he? From his standpoint its got to be better for him to hit the open market and negotiate with as many teams as possible - no?

[CubinNY]

I'd be very surprised by a trade for someone like Devers. Feels like this is a year too early to go make a huge trade for a star, especially a walk year guy. I could see Ohtani, just because he's so special you've gotta make that sort of deal when it comes around, but a more "ordinary" star like Devers would shock me.

 

Something like Pablo Lopez feels like the top end of the non-Ohtani options I'd anticipate?

Why wouldn't Devers sign an extension as a condition of the trade? Is he a Boras client? I tried to look it up, but I couldn't find his agent. He's a perfect fit for what this team needs.

 

Is that even permitted - I didn't think it was - anyone??? The flip side of that is - if he could negotiate with a team prior to being traded to them why would he? From his standpoint its got to be better for him to hit the open market and negotiate with as many teams as possible - no?

Olsen last year.

[Bertz]

 

The particular details of this brutal takedown don't so much matter for us, but it does make me think about two more Cubs-centric questions.

 

1) Are there any impact pitchers available from teams further behind on the pitcher development learning curve? I hesitate to call any non-Rockies org dumb, but there are definitely those that get the modern approach to pitching and those that don't. The Cubs, while maybe not inner circle like the Rays/Guardians/Dodgers, are clearly in the cool kids pitching club. How can that be leveraged, especially if you're willing to expend some real resources rather than just making waiver claims and signing relievers to like 1/$3M?

 

2) Are there any young player swaps/challenge trades to be had? Again looking at the Royals, they have MJ Melendez behind Sal Perez, and they have Nick Pratto behind Vinnie Pasquantino. The A's have Shea Langeliers coming up behind Sean Murphy. The Rangers have a 3B prospect logjam, etc. What if Jed turned some of the Cubs' CF stockpile not into a veteran, but into a comparable youth at a position of greater need?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2) Are there any young player swaps/challenge trades to be had? Again looking at the Royals, they have MJ Melendez behind Sal Perez, and they have Nick Pratto behind Vinnie Pasquantino. The A's have Shea Langeliers coming up behind Sean Murphy. The Rangers have a 3B prospect logjam, etc. What if Jed turned some of the Cubs' CF stockpile not into a veteran, but into a comparable youth at a position of greater need?

 

I could see something like Madrigal for one of the Royals SP that hasn't fulfilled their potential, he's the type of profile the Royals might value more than average and there's some opportunity without Merrifield. This is also probably the offseason to strike with Mitch Keller from the Pirates, but he's been just good enough that they won't be in much hurry even if he's hitting arb. He just got traded but Mickey Moniak hasn't done anything at the MLB level and would fit the roster as a LH + defense CF bench option better than Velazquez/Canario/Ortega/Hill. For those more bearish on Mervis, the Mariners would probably pay to get rid of Evan White at this stage, and my deadline obsession Alex Kirilloff needed surgery right after the deadline so they might be ready to move on from him.

[Cubswin11]

Yes, please. Senga, Correa, Conforto, Seth Lugo, Smyly back, backup C (assuming Willy is gone), some sort of cheap 1B insurance potential and a vet bullpen arm or two please.

 

[Named After Maddux]

 

 

1) Are there any impact pitchers available from teams further behind on the pitcher development learning curve? I hesitate to call any non-Rockies org dumb, but there are definitely those that get the modern approach to pitching and those that don't. The Cubs, while maybe not inner circle like the Rays/Guardians/Dodgers, are clearly in the cool kids pitching club. How can that be leveraged, especially if you're willing to expend some real resources rather than just making waiver claims and signing relievers to like 1/$3M?

 

2) Are there any young player swaps/challenge trades to be had? Again looking at the Royals, they have MJ Melendez behind Sal Perez, and they have Nick Pratto behind Vinnie Pasquantino. The A's have Shea Langeliers coming up behind Sean Murphy. The Rangers have a 3B prospect logjam, etc. What if Jed turned some of the Cubs' CF stockpile not into a veteran, but into a comparable youth at a position of greater need?

 

Kansas City, great barbeque, terrible pitching development. Keller is a likely NT candidate which I'd be great taking a flier on for a 5th/6th SP. He needs a sweeper. Singer has been really good all things considered so I doubt they'd move him, but you have Bubic, Lynch, and Kowar who have been pretty terrible relative to expectations. Asa Lacy has been truly horrendous and someone needs to save Ben Hernandez before it's too late. I'd be plenty fine taking chances on some KC arms if they like them.

[Backtobanks]

On MLBTR chat today, Steve Adams thought if Bellinger is non-tendered, he might sign a 1-year pillow deal for about $10 million. At 27 years old, he might be worth signing and then let him become a FA in 2024.

[Bertz]

Yes, please. Senga, Correa, Conforto, Seth Lugo, Smyly back, backup C (assuming Willy is gone), some sort of cheap 1B insurance potential and a vet bullpen arm or two please.

 

 

Correa/Senga as the big FA splashes feels very Jed. Taking it back to the Passan article, grabbing two Tier 2 guys instead of one Tier 1 feels like a Jed move. Plus, neither guy has the qualifying offer attached, which we know is a biggy. Jed also explicitly name checked adding velo to the rotation (check) and power to the lineup (check).

[Tim]

Cold, hard question for the offseason:

 

Do you DFA Hendricks to free up a 40 man spot for someone that can contribute long-term?

[JeffH]

Cold, hard question for the offseason:

 

Do you DFA Hendricks to free up a 40 man spot for someone that can contribute long-term?

 

One thing to keep in mind when thinking about adding guys to the 40-man roster is that there can be no more than 14 guys on optional assignment or a non-60-day IL at any one time.

[Tim]

Of course not and especially in the case of a non-specific option, if the 2023 goal is to win and not prolong a rebuild

I'm not sure that's the case, though. It's been a rough couple of years for Kyle and there's no real guarantee he comes back from this injury in any productive way. His peripherals aren't any better than his actual results, either. His GB% was only 36% this year. His barrel rate the past two years is double what it was in the past. He's flat out been a bad pitcher the past two years.

 

I think it's a very open question as to whether we should expect that to change in 2023.

[Tim]

Cold, hard question for the offseason:

 

Do you DFA Hendricks to free up a 40 man spot for someone that can contribute long-term?

 

One thing to keep in mind when thinking about adding guys to the 40-man roster is that there can be no more than 14 guys on optional assignment or a non-60-day IL at any one time.

True - but that doesn't matter in the offseason. During the year I was thinking of it more from the point of view of adding an extra starter with MLB experience through FA or trade to have more certainty in that rotation spot. If you still view Steele as an unknown as a full-load starter, then there's really only Stroman that we can count on in that fashion. Basically, I'm wondering if we should swap out Hendricks for someone with more certainty.

 

But dropping him at the beginning of the offseason also allows us to add another player to the roster for now that could be used in trades during the remainder of the offseason.

[Bertz]

Cold, hard question for the offseason:

 

Do you DFA Hendricks to free up a 40 man spot for someone that can contribute long-term?

 

I'm about as comfortable as anyone in turning the page from the 2016 guys, but this feels like a bridge too far.

 

I'd expect Kyle to be much more useful next year. There were a number of outings this year, particularly May/June, where he was pushed farther than he should have been because the rest of the rotation wasn't giving any innings. I'd also anticipate the defense being significantly better next year. It's already been much better lately than it was early in the year, and adding one of the FA shortstops should only further help that effort. Prime Kyle's certainly not walking back through that door, but I think he'll still be useful as a 5 and dive guy with a viable MLB defense behind him. E.g. Drew Smyly.

 

I do wonder about the plans for the rotation this winter. I look at things and see a clear need for a starter, but only one starter. Does the team see a need for a second? Jed and Theo have historically erred on the side of overloading the MLB rotation, but have also never had even close to the current crop of upper level SP prospects (at least with the Cubs). Maybe it depends how Assad and Wesneski do down the stretch here.

[JeffH]

Cold, hard question for the offseason:

 

Do you DFA Hendricks to free up a 40 man spot for someone that can contribute long-term?

 

One thing to keep in mind when thinking about adding guys to the 40-man roster is that there can be no more than 14 guys on optional assignment or a non-60-day IL at any one time.

True - but that doesn't matter in the offseason. During the year I was thinking of it more from the point of view of adding an extra starter with MLB experience through FA or trade to have more certainty in that rotation spot. If you still view Steele as an unknown as a full-load starter, then there's really only Stroman that we can count on in that fashion. Basically, I'm wondering if we should swap out Hendricks for someone with more certainty.

 

But dropping him at the beginning of the offseason also allows us to add another player to the roster for now that could be used in trades during the remainder of the offseason.

 

It does matter if the idea is to use the spot for a guy that will have zero chance of contributing at the big league level, like Kohl Franklin. You can realistically only have so many such guys on the 40-man roster.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I do wonder about the plans for the rotation this winter. I look at things and see a clear need for a starter, but only one starter. Does the team see a need for a second? Jed and Theo have historically erred on the side of overloading the MLB rotation, but have also never had even close to the current crop of upper level SP prospects (at least with the Cubs). Maybe it depends how Assad and Wesneski do down the stretch here.

 

I think the way the bullpen looks for now and Jed's stated and practiced preference to incorporate SP through the bullpen makes a 2nd SP reasonably likely. Even if you add 3 FA RPs, you have some probable bullpen pieces beyond that but only so many. Hughes is locked in, but Wick has had his worst season and turns 30, Heuer probably won't be a factor opening day, there's a few prospects(Estrada, Rodriguez) and post-prospect guys(Leiter, Sampson) who might be useful, but very little etched in stone. Which is a long way to say that adding a 2nd SP, especially if they could be useful in a pen role if needed, would allow more pen depth with Thompson and Wesneski probably being there on opening day.

 

Really what it comes down to is resources for the offseason. They probably can't make all the upgrades that they might want, so it's a matter of whether they want to short sheet the rotation or a particular position group.

[muntjack]

Choi is 31. I really don't want to give up assets and block Mervis for a 1.0 WAR guy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Choi is 31. I really don't want to give up assets and block Mervis for a 1.0 WAR guy.

 

In a perfect world any Mervis hedge would have value at another position(looking at you, Bellinger), but even if not there's not abject certainty about DH with Reyes dipping below a 100 wRC+ as a Cub. So in theory those two could coexist even if I wouldn't call it plan A.

[muntjack]

I suppose it depends on the cost, then. Bellinger makes more sense, but he's the type of guy Ross will give starts to even if he's hitting .150 in mid-July. One of the young OFers is going to be ready by then.

 

I don't know, this seems like exactly the wrong time to take flyers on grizzled veterans. Either make the big upgrade or fill internally.

 

Edit: I know Bellinger is still young, but in his case he's just been so bad.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I suppose it depends on the cost, then. Bellinger makes more sense, but he's the type of guy Ross will give starts to even if he's hitting .150 in mid-July. One of the young OFers is going to be ready by then.

 

I don't know, this seems like exactly the wrong time to take flyers on grizzled veterans. Either make the big upgrade or fill internally.

 

Edit: I know Bellinger is still young, but in his case he's just been so bad.

 

Definitely agree on cost, Bellinger I'd pay some real money to because he can play a decent CF, but the Chois or Dom Smiths of the world should be closer to free. That said, I don't think the position player depth is strong enough where we can be super picky about how depth is accumulated. There's plenty of potential options where they *can* go with an internal candidate, but they're largely guys with the ceiling of 2nd division starter(Velazquez, Madrigal, Reyes, probably Morel), platoon/bench player(McKinstry, Higgins), or they haven't solved AAA yet(Canario, Velazquez again, kinda Davis). So while they need to be smart about where they upgrade(for me it's star starting IF, starting C, LH defensive/platoon CF), I don't think they need to be too afraid about blocking a bunch of guys. And while I get the 'don't tempt the manager into playing the wrong player' mentality(though for every Heyward there's a Simmons or Villar who didn't get undeserved time when not performing), I don't think that should inform the roster building.

[Cubswin11]

I really like the idea to add Bellinger, assuming he’s DFA’d/non tendered. He plays a damn good CF, had the LHH bat we need to add at least one of, doesn’t overly block anyone as he’s certainly taking a 1 year deal, also gives to 1B protection if Davis, etc are up at one point next year. He’s a very nice target, imo.

[Cubswin11]

Snell took a no hitter in to the 7th vs the cards and is hitting 97-98 on the FB. He makes $16 mil next year and then is a FA, with their LT situation I wonder how available he may be this offseason.

[17 Seconds]

Snell took a no hitter in to the 7th vs the cards and is hitting 97-98 on the FB. He makes $16 mil next year and then is a FA, with their LT situation I wonder how available he may be this offseason.

 

Or Darvish

[Cubswin11]

Snell took a no hitter in to the 7th vs the cards and is hitting 97-98 on the FB. He makes $16 mil next year and then is a FA, with their LT situation I wonder how available he may be this offseason.

 

Or Darvish

That’s ideal

[Bertz]

Would love to know what the FO is thinking about Mckinstry.

 

At first glance, the bat has been pretty uninspiring, and it doesn't seem like he's been unlucky. His wOBA is .278 and his xwOBA is .281. Minor difference, like a single base hit.

 

However, I think he's probably been unlucky is his BB and K numbers. Coming into tonight he had a walk rate of 7.4% and a K rate of 25.7%, both numbers worse than league average. But he's 45th percentile in chase rate, 40th in swinging at pitches in the zone, and 80th in contact rates. Those numbers don't scream "poor at both walking and striking out" to me. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

There's not exactly thunder in his bat, but I think the batting results are supposed to be closer to like Rafael Ortega. From a very good defensive infielder that's actually a pretty valuable bench piece.