Winning in 2023

[Tryptamine]

A really cheap, change of scenery, LH power bat could be Dom Smith. He's basically mentioned as a throw in on any deal with the Mets involved.

 

He'd have to be completely free and in a year where we have no real chance of competing. I'm not real interested in giving at bats to a guy that has put up a -.9 fWAR over his last 194 games if the games have any meaning.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I was chatting with a buddy that's a Twins fan this morning and he thought that Larnach might available in a deadline deal. He's currently hurt and may be out of favor with Kirilloff, Miranda, Celestino, and Arraez taking PA where he would get them.

I see such a drastic dropoff once he reached AAA and I'm wondering if his big struggle has been the bendy and offspeed stuff. He cruised through AA with super rates across the board.

 

Could be, but he only played 19 games at AAA across 2 seasons so I wouldn't read too deeply into that line. Especially since he's got 480 MLB PA at about a league average level to help with some concerns that AAA performance could surface.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I was chatting with a buddy that's a Twins fan this morning and he thought that Larnach might available in a deadline deal. He's currently hurt and may be out of favor with Kirilloff, Miranda, Celestino, and Arraez taking PA where he would get them.

I see such a drastic dropoff once he reached AAA and I'm wondering if his big struggle has been the bendy and offspeed stuff. He cruised through AA with super rates across the board.

 

Could be, but he only played 19 games at AAA across 2 seasons so I wouldn't read too deeply into that line. Especially since he's got 480 MLB PA at about a league average level to help with some concerns that AAA performance could surface.

That's true. He is intriguing, seems to be able to handle himself in the field also, although a SSS. Couple things that they really need to address is the defense IMO, and get more left handed on the offense. I'm just not crazy about adding guys that are going to swing and miss a ton.

[Thurman Merman]

If the cubs have found a way to improve good eye, high power, low contact guys (wisdom, crook, Velasquez to name a few), Gallo would certainly make sense as a target.

[minnesotacubsfan]

If the cubs have found a way to improve good eye, high power, low contact guys (wisdom, crook, Velasquez to name a few), Gallo would certainly make sense as a target.

 

just get someone in the left field bleachers a trash can to bang one

[NewUserName]

Seiya Suzuki since coming off the IL:

 

.355/.382/.511 with a sub-20 K over 47 PAs

 

Putting it here instead of general because his very high ceiling

 

I really feel like he was a bit lost for awhile after the league made their adjustments to him. But he looks a lot better now. I feel like he will be a very productive piece going forward.

[Derwood]

Seiya Suzuki since coming off the IL:

 

.355/.382/.511 with a sub-20 K over 47 PAs

 

Putting it here instead of general because his very high ceiling

 

I really feel like he was a bit lost for awhile after the league made their adjustments to him. But he looks a lot better now. I feel like he will be a very productive piece going forward.

 

I’m sure it was frustrating to be getting the Schwarber treatment by the umps as well. Batters with good eyes at the plate shouldn’t be punished for taking close pitches.

[Tim]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/justin-verlander-reaches-130-innings-pitched-vests-2023-player-option.html

 

The dream: Verlander *and* Rodon

The dream (mine, at least): One of the top end starters + one of the top end shortstops. Plus a few relievers and another mid-scale hitter. Honestly, that should be all it takes to be at the top of the division.

[Tim]

Question: What big lefty bat might be available in trade this offseason?

 

(If only there were a 23 year old, generational talent available that would fit the bill. Too bad those never come on the market)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Question: What big lefty bat might be available in trade this offseason?

 

(If only there were a 23 year old, generational talent available that would fit the bill. Too bad those never come on the market)

 

Eyeballing the current offensive leaderboards, there isn't a super clean fit. Maybe the Mets have a bottleneck and need to trade McNeil or Vogelbach, maybe Santander from Baltimore, maybe Minnesota needs to clean up their position player depth chart a bit and someone like Kepler or Kirilloff comes available.

[Bertz]

Question: What big lefty bat might be available in trade this offseason?

 

(If only there were a 23 year old, generational talent available that would fit the bill. Too bad those never come on the market)

 

They pretty much could not be any more difference, but the two I have my eye on are Michael Brantley and Joey Gallo.

 

Brantley is going to give you zero defensive value, he can play LF part time but you have to go in with the intention that he's your primary DH. That means him and keeping Contreras are an either/or. However, even at 35 Brantley is your textbook "professional hitter" and could probably be had on a one or two year deal. I doubt Houston holds onto him given that he and Yordan don't compliment each other very well defensively.

 

Gallo is going to give you that defensive versatility of being an option at 1B or any OF position. So while the bat is riskier certainly, he can work around any other personnel moves. The biggest problem with Gallo is that he got traded. So now if he rebounds these two months with the Dodgers everyone knows it was just a NYC thing and that gets prices into his FA salary. If he doesn't rebound then frankly the odds of a rebound next year drop precipitously.

 

The good news though is with Happ sticking around a big LH bat is more a nice-to-have than an absolute necessity.

[Backtobanks]

If Ricketts would open up his purse strings, Josh Hall would look good at 1B, putting Wisdom back at 3B and Morel in CF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

^^ Yeah I think Kepler can become a pretty realistic and cheap trade option

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/justin-verlander-reaches-130-innings-pitched-vests-2023-player-option.html

 

The dream: Verlander *and* Rodon

The dream (mine, at least): One of the top end starters + one of the top end shortstops. Plus a few relievers and another mid-scale hitter. Honestly, that should be all it takes to be at the top of the division.

 

Verlander, Rodon, Bogaerts, a better bench including LHH IF and CF options like Frazier/ Gregorious and Philips/Keiermaier, and a closer willing to take a one year deal (Rogers, Fulmer, Jansen, Kimbrel, whoever)

 

is probably where I’m at for the moment

 

Pending injury or a big change in performance trajectory, I think you're only taking one starter. Definitely only one from the tier of guys making 15M+ AAV. But yeah, go nuts for an IF(I'd vote Correa since the money doesn't matter and he's no QO and 2 years younger), get a SP(if you've spent on Correa then I'm fine with the Eovaldi, Clevenger, Syndergaard tier instead of Rodon, Taillon, DeGrom), give Morel a defensive CF platoon partner(Kiermaier), and figure out the plan for catching, and you're in pretty good shape.

[Outshined_One]

Where does everyone think about how Thompson/Steele will factor into 2023? I'm guessing we'll probably see both of them get shut down in September once they get around the 120 IP mark, but I'm still not quite sold on them as reliable rotation guys on a going forward basis based on their relative inexperience as starters.

 

I get that the Cubs can use them in the 4/5 spots with possible replacements waiting in the wings in AAA in case of injuries/struggles, and also that baseball is trending away from starters going through the order a third time, but, considering the Cubs are second in bullpen innings pitched in MLB this season, part of me wonders if the Cubs would be better off dangling either of them as trade bait while pursuing a mid-level FA SP who can eat up innings (in addition to the upgrades previously discussed).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Where does everyone think about how Thompson/Steele will factor into 2023? I'm guessing we'll probably see both of them get shut down in September once they get around the 120 IP mark, but I'm still not quite sold on them as reliable rotation guys on a going forward basis based on their relative inexperience as starters.

 

I get that the Cubs can use them in the 4/5 spots with possible replacements waiting in the wings in AAA in case of injuries/struggles, and also that baseball is trending away from starters going through the order a third time, but, considering the Cubs are second in bullpen innings pitched in MLB this season, part of me wonders if the Cubs would be better off dangling either of them as trade bait while pursuing a mid-level FA SP who can eat up innings (in addition to the upgrades previously discussed).

 

Since mid-May Steele is averaging 5.3 IP/GS, since late May Thompson is averaging just under 5 IP/GS (with a median of 5 IP), if you think they can be useful I don't think durability is the primary concern. Is it certain they'll be able to hold their performance for 32 starts next year? No, but that's part of the risk with most every pitcher, as we saw with innings-eaters Stroman and Hendricks this year. If nothing else we can say that their success is not a function of them being shielded from going deeper in games because once they got their legs under them they kept going deeper. Case in point, in the last 2 months Steele and Thompson have pitched into the 6th 11 times.

 

I think you add a good SP, and trust that FA/Stroman/Steele/Thompson/Hendricks is fine to start the year with. If Hendricks falters or there's inevitable injuries of whatever severity, you have Wesneski and Kilian hanging out ready to go, with Wicks(and to a lesser extent Herz and Brown) shortly behind.

[mul21]

Agree with TT. Between both of them showing they can go deeper into games than they were initially ready for/trusted to, I think you mitigate some of the risk of hose 2 not consistently getting to 6IP with a more stable front end of the rotation next season, so that FA/Stroman/Hendricks combo giving you consistent deep starts is almost as big a factor for me as the young guys being able to hold their own deeper into games.

[Bertz]

Yeah I think unless something big changes you write Steele and Thompson into next year's rotation. If Iowa was as bereft of SP talent as it's been historically maybe you don't, but the org finally has a critical mass of young SP so let's lean on it. Having Alzolay in the 'pen and Kilian/Wesneski as major league arms at Iowa with MiLB options is legitimately enviable SP depth.

 

I think how big to go with the one SP addition and whether to go the trade or FA route are the most interesting and difficult questions this winter.

 

FA is basically Rodon and deGrom, each of whom's medicals are terrifying, or a whole host of good but flawed #3/#4 types. Do you throw 9 figures at a guy who even in year one has an over/under of something like 20 starts? Alternatively do you really want to lock into 4 years of a Mike Clevinger type? There are some good buy-low options (looking at you German Marquez!), but given all of the young pitching and Hendricks' struggles the team's going to be in a position where that variability seems disqualifying.

 

The trade route is interesting. There are some big names going into their walk years who could possibly come available like Ohtani, Giolito, or Nola. There's some fun longer term pieces that could probably be had for a very steep price like Brady Singer or Pablo Lopez. The farm does have the depth to make a big move, but does Jed think the time is right? He kind of explicitly called out that part of the reason for adding all of the young pitching over the last month was to avoid having to pay market rates for impact starters.

[CubinNY]

What are the chances Willson accepts the QO if the don’t work out a new contract?

[Tim]

What are the chances Willson accepts the QO if the don’t work out a new contract?

Decent. And I'd be exceptionally fine with that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Pending injury or a big change in performance trajectory, I think you're only taking one starter. Definitely only one from the tier of guys making 15M+ AAV. But yeah, go nuts for an IF(I'd vote Correa since the money doesn't matter and he's no QO and 2 years younger), get a SP(if you've spent on Correa then I'm fine with the Eovaldi, Clevenger, Syndergaard tier instead of Rodon, Taillon, DeGrom), give Morel a defensive CF platoon partner(Kiermaier), and figure out the plan for catching, and you're in pretty good shape.

 

I'm actually not sure how to value these SSs for Cubs. Pound for pound, Contreras is having the best offensive season of the top FA position players plus Hoerner's been one of the best defensive SSs in the league after playing a GG caliber 2B in 2020. I just might be fine signing Didi Gregorious to backup Hoerner and platoon with Madrigal as I am walking out with one of the SS. Just see a faster path to elite pitching rather than an elite, static offense...Bogaert's power is arguably declining much faster than Contreras' and shares the defensive concerns, Correa's coming off a down season all around regardless of age, Turner's got a 6% walk rate...I'm not sure any of these guys are vital to 2023 success unless the plan is to swap Contreras for one of them (which doesn't seem like a great plan?)

 

I think you're a bit too far in your own head here. I don't think it's Correa/Bogaerts/Turner or bust given Hoerner's breakout, but Gregorius has been worth -0.7 fWAR since the end of *2018*, and the internal depth at SP is far better than there is on the IF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Might be a good time to refresh the payroll situation heading into the offseason. Fangraphs/Roster Resource does a great job with the details, but I'll try to simplify for these purposes.

 

Opening Day LT payroll was around 177 million. That's 55 million below the 2023 luxury tax threshold.

 

Increases from 2022 to 2023 are minimal. Happ's final arbitration year will likely be +5-6 million, Nico's first arb year will probably be +4-5 million, but the only other arb eligibles are pitchers who are getting minimal raises if they're even kept.

 

Departures make sense to break down in distinct groups given how they will/won't be replaced:

 

SP - Miley, Smyly - 13 million freed up

RP - Robertson, Givens, Martin, Norris - 11 million freed up

Willson - 10 million freed up

Position players - Simmons, Villar - 8 million freed up

 

Said another way, if you assume the reliever money gets earmarked to be used similarly next year, you have about 18-19 million to spare before even increasing the payroll.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think you're a bit too far in your own head here. I don't think it's Correa/Bogaerts/Turner or bust given Hoerner's breakout, but Gregorius has been worth -0.7 fWAR since the end of *2018*, and the internal depth at SP is far better than there is on the IF.

 

Think the bold are more important to my post than Gregorious specifically

 

Gregorious is most about taking more a complimentary approach to building a position group around Contreras (extend!), Hoerner, Suzuki, and Happ, happens to be the most available nominal LHH SS/IF. Maybe they can approach the hole with a trade for someone like Bryson Stott, Andrew Velazquez, Joe Wendle, or even a higher risk option (since this guy can be as low as your 3rd 2B) like Taylor Walls, Geraldo Perdomo, Lucius Fox... :dontknow:

 

That's fine, but even if you're keeping Happ and Contreras, there still needs to be a significant addition to the offense, they're 19th in wRC+ and 23rd in runs. And if you're keeping Happ and not going after one of the SS, you're limited to basically 1B/DH and CF, of which there aren't many good options.

[Tim]

1. Kodai Senga 5/$125m

2. Carlos Correa 10/$325m

3. Trade for Ohtani, extend (Davis, PCA, Thompson, Kilian, Madrigal)

4. whatever, really, fill out the roster

 

Ohtani solves the need for an ace and a LHH at the same time

[Tryptamine]

Josh Bell 5/80

Xander Bogaerts 6/180

Carlos Rodon 4/100

 

Trade Caissie+Hernandez+Canario(might be light, Canario might have to swapped out for a better piece) for Tarik Skubal

 

C: Gomes(With Amaya coming up at some point)

1B: Bell

2B: Madrigal

SS: Hoerner

3B: Bogaerts

LF: Happ

CF: Davis

RF: Suzuki

 

 

Bench: Morel, Wisdom, Ortega, McKinstry, Higgins, Velazquez

 

SP: Rodon, Stroman, Skubal, Steele, Hendricks, Thompson

 

RP: Don't care, but I want to see Leeper+ Estrada get innings

 

I'm a bit torn on what I would do with Keegan in this scenario. You could use him as trade bait, and keeping him in Iowa as the 6th man feels like a waste.

 

Schwindel, Rivas, Bote and Hermosillo can all be fired into the sun.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So far they are doing all the right things to signal they plan to compete in 2023.

 

Cross quoting this because I'm getting a similar sense.

 

 

On top of the reasons mentioned there, I'd also add the prioritization of high minors returns at the deadline(3 of the 4 players and the 3 most valuable being at AA or above), and the roster churn that is mostly closing the door on some players' 2023 chances(first Rivas, then Bote, now Schwindel).

 

What I'm currently grappling with is how intensely they plan on trying to hit the accelerator.

 

1) I'm not confident how aggressively they'll spend. On one hand, smart money would be on them not going all in to push up to the luxury tax line, especially if to do so they have to add 3 players with 4+ year deals. But on the other hand, the 2024 roster has little in the way of marginal cost increases, and could potentially be dropping almost 50 million of salary(Hendricks/Heyward/Happ) without an urgent need to backfill any of them(depending on how the high minors SP and OF look in 12 months). So if there was a season where some short term aggression could pay off, it's this one.

 

2) I think they'll try to stay net-zero with QO players, so if they keep Willson that means no Taillon, DeGrom, Bogaerts, Turner, etc. It could mean Correa + Thor + Willson though

 

3) I'm skeptical that they'll make a significant buy trade. That doesn't mean I don't think they'll explore trades that involve trading minor leaguers for major leaguers, but I think they're just getting comfortable with the level of depth, and if they make a trade it might be less about spending capital to get a clear cut star and more about getting a player who they feel good about breaking out(Spencer Turnbull? Mickey Moniak? Trevor Rogers? a 1B/DH?). An exception to this could be if a star comes available for extenuating circumstances. Maybe the Red Sox need to trade Devers like they did Betts and he's open to an extension and you jump on that because he's 26, maybe the Padres need to sell high on Machado to avoid luxury tax pain.

 

When I add those things together, I feel like the most likely outcome is at the top of the market they'll do something similar to last year, they'll add a significant position player and starting pitcher. I don't think Willson is plan A for that significant position player, and they'll see if his market develops slowly and they can maybe get him on a more opportunistic deal(more Grandal than Realmuto) if that presents itself, but otherwise be a little more aggressive on shorter term deals. That could mean going a little higher in the reliever market for a late inning arm, or finding a bridge position player solution that's higher end than Villar/Simmons, or making the SP acquisition an older arm who will take a shorter term deal(Morton? Verlander? Kershaw?).

 

So in the end it could look something like: Correa, Clevinger, Narvaez, Kiermaier, and a cohort of RP similar to this year. That's not gonna make them surefire playoff contenders, but the biggest weakness(1B/DH) is easier to fix through the market or just luck than most other spots on the roster, and with even a modicum of SP health you'll be staying in the race past the deadline and playing meaningful September games.