2022 Trade Deadline

[Bertz]

This came up in the gameday thread, but I think we're deep enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea of what players are going to bring back at the deadline. I'm going to use the Fangraphs' Future Value ratings here for brevity and consistency, but for those that aren't familiar these rankings broadly equate to:

 

40 Future Value - A typical org top 30 prospect

45 FV - A typical org top 10 prospect

50 FV - A typical industry top 100 prospect

55 FV or better - Elite guys in the top half of national prospect lists

 

Last year, Bryant and Rizzo each brought back two 45 FVs, and Javy (plus whatever little value Williams had) brought back one. Meanwhile Chafin brought back two 40s.

 

So what does that mean for this year? Contreras is having a better walk year than any of the big three last year, but he's generally been considered a tier below them as a player, and we know teams don't love trading for catchers mid-season. It's also a much worse market this year, as most of the good walk-year guys are already on contenders. All told I think you should expect in line with last year (two 45s), but not be shocked if it's a good bit more. I could see a 50 and a 45.

 

Robertson is a lot harder to peg. There actually hasn't been a reliever as good as him dealt in his walk year in a really long time. There have been guys as good with multiple years of control, but Chapman was the last guy I can find as good as Robertson, and he was much better, so he's not a great comp either (not even touching the off-field stuff). The best recent comp I can find is Zach Britton to the Yankees. He was no longer prime Zach Britton, but was still good and had been elite pretty recently. He brought back three 40 FVs. With Robertson being a solid bit better, I think you could expect a 45 and a 40.

 

The rest of the walk year guys are pretty straightforward. Martin will bring back a good return, likely two 40 FVs a la Andrew Chafin last year. Beyond that it'll just be depth, maybe plusing up to a 40 if that guy is Rule 5 eligible or injured or something (think about how someone as fungible as Jake Marisnick brought back a prospect as notable as Anderson Espinoza).

 

I don't want the team to deal Happ, but it certainly seems likely to be considered. Joey Gallo brought back a 50, a 45, and two 40s at last year's deadline. I believe there were some Rule 5 considerations there, but regardless that's quite a haul, particularly when you consider that the top two guys in the deal are already on MLB. I think depending on the circumstances, you might be able to convert some of that quantity into quality and get a 55 FV (e.g. Luis Campusano from the Padres). I'd also guess this is the approximate return for a Willson/Robertson package deal.

 

Ultimately, given the depth already on the farm I'd like to see package deals wherever possible to try and net out maximum quality in exchange for quantity. Given how much of the inventory is relievers, I think that's a lot more doable than it'd be in a typical year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I split this into its own thread because I had a very similar thought this morning and it's getting to be about trade szn.

 

To help with the FV conception and think about who might be available, here's a list of FV 45-50 players (per Fangraphs) on teams currently with a winning record: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=tor,atl,bos,chw,phi,min,nym,sdp,lad,nyy,tbr,cle,hou,sfg,laa&filter=scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Clt%7C50%7C50,scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Cgt%7C45%7C45&pageitems=200&pg=0&pos=

[UMFan83]

Willson is going to be interesting. Like you pointed out, he's always been considered a tier below players like Bryant and the whole trading for catchers thing. In additional several contenders have solid options in place and probably aren't looking to add someone like Contreras.

 

Toronto - Kirk

Yankees - Trevino

Braves - d'Arnaud and William C

Dodgers - Will Smith

Brewers - Caratini is having a solid year

 

But I guess all it takes is one team that desperately needs a catcher to bite on Willson's career year.

[CubinNY]

Willson is going to be interesting. Like you pointed out, he's always been considered a tier below players like Bryant and the whole trading for catchers thing. In additional several contenders have solid options in place and probably aren't looking to add someone like Contreras.

 

Toronto - Kirk

Yankees - Trevino

Braves - d'Arnaud and William C

Dodgers - Will Smith

Brewers - Caratini is having a solid year

 

But I guess all it takes is one team that desperately needs a catcher to bite on Willson's career year.

I read that the Yankees are very happy with their catchers and are valuing how they handle the pitching staff very highly. I don't think they will be looking to add him. Right now, I'm leaning toward the Cubs don't trade him because they won't get the value they want. Also, please do not trade Wilson to the Brewers.

[Backtobanks]

This came up in the gameday thread, but I think we're deep enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea of what players are going to bring back at the deadline. I'm going to use the Fangraphs' Future Value ratings here for brevity and consistency, but for those that aren't familiar these rankings broadly equate to:

 

40 Future Value - A typical org top 30 prospect

45 FV - A typical org top 10 prospect

50 FV - A typical industry top 100 prospect

55 FV or better - Elite guys in the top half of national prospect lists

 

Last year, Bryant and Rizzo each brought back two 45 FVs, and Javy (plus whatever little value Williams had) brought back one. Meanwhile Chafin brought back two 40s.

 

So what does that mean for this year? Contreras is having a better walk year than any of the big three last year, but he's generally been considered a tier below them as a player, and we know teams don't love trading for catchers mid-season. It's also a much worse market this year, as most of the good walk-year guys are already on contenders. All told I think you should expect in line with last year (two 45s), but not be shocked if it's a good bit more. I could see a 50 and a 45.

 

Robertson is a lot harder to peg. There actually hasn't been a reliever as good as him dealt in his walk year in a really long time. There have been guys as good with multiple years of control, but Chapman was the last guy I can find as good as Robertson, and he was much better, so he's not a great comp either (not even touching the off-field stuff). The best recent comp I can find is Zach Britton to the Yankees. He was no longer prime Zach Britton, but was still good and had been elite pretty recently. He brought back three 40 FVs. With Robertson being a solid bit better, I think you could expect a 45 and a 40.

 

The rest of the walk year guys are pretty straightforward. Martin will bring back a good return, likely two 40 FVs a la Andrew Chafin last year. Beyond that it'll just be depth, maybe plusing up to a 40 if that guy is Rule 5 eligible or injured or something (think about how someone as fungible as Jake Marisnick brought back a prospect as notable as Anderson Espinoza).

 

I don't want the team to deal Happ, but it certainly seems likely to be considered. Joey Gallo brought back a 50, a 45, and two 40s at last year's deadline. I believe there were some Rule 5 considerations there, but regardless that's quite a haul, particularly when you consider that the top two guys in the deal are already on MLB. I think depending on the circumstances, you might be able to convert some of that quantity into quality and get a 55 FV (e.g. Luis Campusano from the Padres). I'd also guess this is the approximate return for a Willson/Robertson package deal.

 

Ultimately, given the depth already on the farm I'd like to see package deals wherever possible to try and net out maximum quality in exchange for quantity. Given how much of the inventory is relievers, I think that's a lot more doable than it'd be in a typical year.

 

In any or all of the trades the Cubs make, starting pitching has to be the priority. Our system is woefully weak in pitching while offensive position players are easier to acquire.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Willson is going to be interesting. Like you pointed out, he's always been considered a tier below players like Bryant and the whole trading for catchers thing. In additional several contenders have solid options in place and probably aren't looking to add someone like Contreras.

 

Toronto - Kirk

Yankees - Trevino

Braves - d'Arnaud and William C

Dodgers - Will Smith

Brewers - Caratini is having a solid year

 

But I guess all it takes is one team that desperately needs a catcher to bite on Willson's career year.

 

Houston, Tampa, Cleveland, and the Mets are all in the bottom 10 in catcher WAR, plus Boston, San Francisco, and the White Sox (if they buy) in the bottom half. I think you can spin logical reasons for most of those not wanting to mess with Willson, but if you want the top suitors it'd probably be the Mets and Giants.

 

That said, unless Willson wants 7/175 or something please just extend him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just to put a finer point on it, here's a hypothetical 6-9 months of moves that probably won't happen but there's no hard reason that it couldn't:

 

- Happ and Miley to Minnesota for Kirilloff and a high potential flyer: Twins get a bat(for 1.5 years) and a SP for the playoff push, Cubs get a lefty 1B/DH bat with pedigree to hope for a similar turnaround that Rizzo had

 

- Robertson to Tampa for Xavier Edwards: Rays get a very good bullpen arm for a player without 5 win ceiling and who is blocked by a number of guys. Cubs get a lefty hitting 2B/3B with 80 speed coming into some power at AAA this year

 

- Extend Contreras, 6/120: Willson gets his longer term deal at a number that beats Realmuto, Cubs avoid going over 20 million AAV which could cause more future pain

 

- Sign Nimmo, now you have CF covered and don't have to worry about Davis or Morel being permanent fixtures there(or PCA coming right up), plus it'll be a smaller deal than one of the SS so it's more likely the FO does it

 

- Sign 2 FA SP, pick your favorite/most likely among Musgrove, Taillon, Rodon, Manaea, Eflin, even Thor or Clevinger. Similarly they shouldn't require 6 or even 5 year deals so the FO is likely to be playing in those waters to avoid long term downside

 

FA/Stroman/FA/Hendricks/Steele/Kilian, Thompson reinforces a pen rebuilt similarly to this year

Contreras/Kirilloff/Edwards/Hoerner/Wisdom/Ortega/Nimmo/Suzuki, with Morel super subbing at 2B(platoon), CF(platoon), and 3B(matchup), and Velazquez/Davis taking time(platoon) and possibly eventually starting in place of Ortega, plus you need a DH from the group too.

 

This has the problem of trying to create a team full of 3 win players with no elite talent, but it would substantially raise the floor without compromising existing farm depth or future spending(this would be ~30 mil short of the LT, Hendricks + Heyward are 36 million coming off after 2024)

[sneakypower]

liking any post that suggests Contreras extension

[Bertz]

I split this into its own thread because I had a very similar thought this morning and it's getting to be about trade szn.

 

To help with the FV conception and think about who might be available, here's a list of FV 45-50 players (per Fangraphs) on teams currently with a winning record: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=tor,atl,bos,chw,phi,min,nym,sdp,lad,nyy,tbr,cle,hou,sfg,laa&filter=scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Clt%7C50%7C50,scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Cgt%7C45%7C45&pageitems=200&pg=0&pos=

 

This is really helpful, and honestly the UX stuff there is why I tend to check FG first for prospect stuff even though I value Jim Callis and co's opinions more.

 

A few guys stand out to me from the list. I think any would be attainable:

 

Luis Campusano - I'm going to keep beating this drum. I think Preller is by far the guy most likely to give up a top 30 prospect, especially with SD's org depth at catcher

 

Logan O'Hoppe - Good all-around catcher who could probably report directly to Iowa. Phillies probably willing to move him because of Realmuto, and I'm kind of wondering if the reason he's still hanging out in AA is because they want him mashing to keep his value up for the deadline

 

Xavier Edwards - You mentioned him but he's a switch hitting speed demon who can play all over the infield. There might be some reticence around another low power middle infielder, but I think his speed, much more reasonable groundball rate, and lack of being nailed to 2B make him very different from Madrigal

 

Jordan Groshans & Miguel Vargas - Neither is super exciting, but both are probably everyday players and both are probably threats to open next year in MLB (you might even call Vargas up directly after the trade)

 

A bunch of Guardians players - Cleveland appears to have a cache of upper minors prospects that might even make Tampa jealous. And I'd imagine Carter Hawkins' history would make him more likely to pick wheat than chaff

 

The above definitely prioritizes MLB proximity, particularly at catcher. It's not a necessity to bring in a guy at the deadline, but catcher is currently the one place on the position side that *needs* to be addressed over the next 9 months. If Jed can check that box at the deadline, given the positional versatility elsewhere on the roster that opens up the offseason to just be about maximizing talent with the available resources. That tends to let FOs make the best decisions, rather than being locked into specific roles/positions.

[CubinNY]

I really hope they go after Musgrove hard this winter.

[Bertz]

 

This would be... interesting.

 

On the one hand it would certainly help the '23 team. I'm not worried about Kyle's salary next year, but I'm very worried about his roster spot. If e.g. Steele and Hendricks project for the same 4.60 ERA, it's much better to have a Steele you can pull the rip cord on and replace as soon as you have a better option rather than an intractable veteran like Kyle.

 

On the other hand, while I am generally less sentimental than most, including at last year's deadline, cutting bait on Kyle would really feel like the very end to the previous era. Arrieta becoming good and Kyle and Javy getting the call up all happened in pretty quick succession mid '14 and basically officially kicked off the good times.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm sure there are teams who would be interested in adding Hendricks to their rotation at the right price. Considering the Cubs biggest need is near-MLB ready SP and they likely do not care about unloading Hendricks' salary(at least they better not), I'm not sure how that works given his lack of consistency or top of rotation ceiling.

[Cubswin11]

Snell horsefeathering sucks

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not sure what purpose Snell would serve, if you turn him around you have him for 1 year and then have to make a FA decision on an inconsistent 30 y/o SP. There are worse problems to have but doesn't exactly have me drooling at the prospect of bringing him in.

 

The Myers thing makes me wonder how desperate they are to shed that half-year's salary. Is it "here's a back of the Top 30 prospect for your trouble"? Is it "we're willing to listen on attaching a Hassell or Wood"? Is it "can we interest you in a lightly used Adrian Morejon"? After the talk about rollover funds this would be an excellent application of them if the answer to that question is the right one.

[Bertz]

Not sure what purpose Snell would serve, if you turn him around you have him for 1 year and then have to make a FA decision on an inconsistent 30 y/o SP. There are worse problems to have but doesn't exactly have me drooling at the prospect of bringing him in.

 

The Myers thing makes me wonder how desperate they are to shed that half-year's salary. Is it "here's a back of the Top 30 prospect for your trouble"? Is it "we're willing to listen on attaching a Hassell or Wood"? Is it "can we interest you in a lightly used Adrian Morejon"? After the talk about rollover funds this would be an excellent application of them if the answer to that question is the right one.

 

I would think with the Padres being right up against the tax and Preller perpetually wanting to be active, the marginal value of Myers' contract is pretty high. If Jed's taking on ~$7M, it's probably worth $10M+ to Preller? Not sure exactly where the latest X Prospect = Y Dollars research nets out, but I think that'd be enough for most non Top 100 prospects.

 

On a more practical sense, I think it would mean Hassell or Wood would definitely be on the table for a Robertson or Contreras trade, and Campusano would definitely be on the table in a Happ trade.

[Backtobanks]

Waldichuk + Gil + Cabrera for Happ

Quantril + Rosario for Contreras

[muntjack]

If Happ has to go, I'd love to see a deal with the Twins that includes out-for-the-season teenager Emmanuel Rodriguez. CF with a ridiculous .493 OBP in 200 PAs. Was just the organization's #25 prospect (FG) entering the season. Obviously his value had gone way up, but the injury tempers that a bit. He also has the SLG% so not a one-trick pony, either.

 

Also like Cade Povich (FG #22), their 3rd rounder last year, SP with 73/19 K/BB in 52 innings

[Bertz]

Frankie Montas left his start today after 1 inning, and his velo was way down

[chopsx9]

https://bluejaysnation.com/2022/07/05/pursuing-cubs-relievers-significantly-transform-blue-jays-bullpen/

 

A Blue Jays website article talking about some Cub arms.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I saw the headline and told myself "I bet this is gonna be Robertson and some pre-arb arms that are not getting traded"

 

If that’s the case and Effross proves too expensive, the Blue Jays would likely be forced to shift their focus elsewhere, although that could potentially lead them to Keegan Thompson. And that might not be the worst possible outcome.

 

Nothing ventured nothing gained I guess.

[chopsx9]

I saw the headline and told myself "I bet this is gonna be Robertson and some pre-arb arms that are not getting traded"

 

If that’s the case and Effross proves too expensive, the Blue Jays would likely be forced to shift their focus elsewhere, although that could potentially lead them to Keegan Thompson. And that might not be the worst possible outcome.

Nothing ventured nothing gained I guess.

 

Now what if Omar Moreno were on the table? They have a glut of catchers - the Toronto fans/media would crucify them if they traded Kirk - but man is he tubby; he's definitely a graduate of the Hector Villanueva Culinary School of Catching. Has anyone with that body type had any sort of sustained success? Prince Fielder for awhile, I guess. They are also desperate for a LH bat. Happ, Thompson, Robertson? Ortega for good measure? Probably could get them to throw in Kikuchi who has disappointed but lefties that throw 95-96 don't grow on trees and maybe the Cubs have the right magic wand to fix him. I'm not eager to trade Thompson but how good is Moreno?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I saw the headline and told myself "I bet this is gonna be Robertson and some pre-arb arms that are not getting traded"

 

If that’s the case and Effross proves too expensive, the Blue Jays would likely be forced to shift their focus elsewhere, although that could potentially lead them to Keegan Thompson. And that might not be the worst possible outcome.

Nothing ventured nothing gained I guess.

 

Now what if Omar Moreno were on the table? They have a glut of catchers - the Toronto fans/media would crucify them if they traded Kirk - but man is he tubby; he's definitely a graduate of the Hector Villanueva Culinary School of Catching. Has anyone with that body type had any sort of sustained success? Prince Fielder for awhile, I guess. They are also desperate for a LH bat. Happ, Thompson, Robertson? Ortega for good measure? Probably could get them to throw in Kikuchi who has disappointed but lefties that throw 95-96 don't grow on trees and maybe the Cubs have the right magic wand to fix him. I'm not eager to trade Thompson but how good is Moreno?

 

For sure, if Effross is the barrier in getting a Top 10 overall prospect back at the deadline(Moreno, Alvarez) then you do that very quickly. But teams don't operate like that when it comes to Top 10 prospects in this day and age, definitely not when the prospects are MLB ready. Mayyybe the Mets are reckless/desperate enough that Willson + Robertson + reliever gets you to Alvarez, but their pen hasn't really been a problem so you'd probably need cascading injury/performance collapses.

[chopsx9]

I saw the headline and told myself "I bet this is gonna be Robertson and some pre-arb arms that are not getting traded"

 

 

Nothing ventured nothing gained I guess.

 

Now what if Omar Moreno were on the table? They have a glut of catchers - the Toronto fans/media would crucify them if they traded Kirk - but man is he tubby; he's definitely a graduate of the Hector Villanueva Culinary School of Catching. Has anyone with that body type had any sort of sustained success? Prince Fielder for awhile, I guess. They are also desperate for a LH bat. Happ, Thompson, Robertson? Ortega for good measure? Probably could get them to throw in Kikuchi who has disappointed but lefties that throw 95-96 don't grow on trees and maybe the Cubs have the right magic wand to fix him. I'm not eager to trade Thompson but how good is Moreno?

 

For sure, if Effross is the barrier in getting a Top 10 overall prospect back at the deadline(Moreno, Alvarez) then you do that very quickly. But teams don't operate like that when it comes to Top 10 prospects in this day and age, definitely not when the prospects are MLB ready. Mayyybe the Mets are reckless/desperate enough that Willson + Robertson + reliever gets you to Alvarez, but their pen hasn't really been a problem so you'd probably need cascading injury/performance collapses.

 

Effross isn't going to get you Moreno - Keegan might be a start??

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Now what if Omar Moreno were on the table? They have a glut of catchers - the Toronto fans/media would crucify them if they traded Kirk - but man is he tubby; he's definitely a graduate of the Hector Villanueva Culinary School of Catching. Has anyone with that body type had any sort of sustained success? Prince Fielder for awhile, I guess. They are also desperate for a LH bat. Happ, Thompson, Robertson? Ortega for good measure? Probably could get them to throw in Kikuchi who has disappointed but lefties that throw 95-96 don't grow on trees and maybe the Cubs have the right magic wand to fix him. I'm not eager to trade Thompson but how good is Moreno?

 

For sure, if Effross is the barrier in getting a Top 10 overall prospect back at the deadline(Moreno, Alvarez) then you do that very quickly. But teams don't operate like that when it comes to Top 10 prospects in this day and age, definitely not when the prospects are MLB ready. Mayyybe the Mets are reckless/desperate enough that Willson + Robertson + reliever gets you to Alvarez, but their pen hasn't really been a problem so you'd probably need cascading injury/performance collapses.

 

Effross isn't going to get you Moreno - Keegan might be a start??

 

Right, the idea is that pre-arb reliever is the 2nd or even 3rd piece in a deal that also involves a bigger player. Toronto doesn't have much use for Contreras or Happ which further makes it unlikely, but the Mets could desperately use Willson, so if a middle reliever is what gets you over the line to get an Alvarez you tell him to pack his bags. Thompson I would've said the same thing about a month ago, but now that's a little more nuanced a conversation.

[Tim]

 

For sure, if Effross is the barrier in getting a Top 10 overall prospect back at the deadline(Moreno, Alvarez) then you do that very quickly. But teams don't operate like that when it comes to Top 10 prospects in this day and age, definitely not when the prospects are MLB ready. Mayyybe the Mets are reckless/desperate enough that Willson + Robertson + reliever gets you to Alvarez, but their pen hasn't really been a problem so you'd probably need cascading injury/performance collapses.

 

Effross isn't going to get you Moreno - Keegan might be a start??

 

Right, the idea is that pre-arb reliever is the 2nd or even 3rd piece in a deal that also involves a bigger player. Toronto doesn't have much use for Contreras or Happ which further makes it unlikely, but the Mets could desperately use Willson, so if a middle reliever is what gets you over the line to get an Alvarez you tell him to pack his bags. Thompson I would've said the same thing about a month ago, but now that's a little more nuanced a conversation.

yeah, it depends on how much faith you have in Thompson and whether you think you'd be selling high.