Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)

[Derwood]

Suzuki on pace for 16.0 WAR, which would break Babe Ruth's record of 15.0

 

I'm sure this will happen

[UMFan83]

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

[sneakypower]

[UMFan83]

https://twitter.com/johndietzdh/status/1516621160770854912?s=21&t=kJdyMHvYiD2i_pbjmLQ7xw

[UMFan83]

Asked this the other day in a game thread but curious to see if there are any signs of Seiya making adjustments and/or is he still mostly doing the things that he does well during this slump?

 

Looking at my arbitrary sample size machine, Seiya has a line of .204/.257/.327/.584 over his last 26 games (105 PA), 0 HR, 34.3% K%, 6.7% BB%. Alarmingly, despite the .204 BA his BABIP over that time is .326. 105 PA is a lot but still not a large enough number to draw any permanent conclusions for a guy in his first 2 months in the MLB I guess. Just want to understand if he's showing positive signs outside of the raw numbers or if he's veering into Fukudome territory and will settle in as a .750s OPS hitter (or the equivalent in 2022 baseball)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Asked this the other day in a game thread but curious to see if there are any signs of Seiya making adjustments and/or is he still mostly doing the things that he does well during this slump?

 

Looking at my arbitrary sample size machine, Seiya has a line of .204/.257/.327/.584 over his last 26 games (105 PA), 0 HR, 34.3% K%, 6.7% BB%. Alarmingly, despite the .204 BA his BABIP over that time is .326. 105 PA is a lot but still not a large enough number to draw any permanent conclusions for a guy in his first 2 months in the MLB I guess. Just want to understand if he's showing positive signs outside of the raw numbers or if he's veering into Fukudome territory and will settle in as a .750s OPS hitter (or the equivalent in 2022 baseball)

 

 

Without getting too in the weeds on his peripherals(partially because I'm lazy, and partially because I hate small sample over-interpretations of stuff like plate discipline data), I think this tells a compelling story of Seiya crushing the ball for 2-3 weeks, pitchers adjusting and him cratering for 2-3 weeks, and now him adjusting back and hitting around his season line for 2ish weeks.

 

 

I don't think that current equilibrium is necessarily his long term expectation, but it does help tell the tale with more nuance then him simply being good then bad.

[Cubswin11]

I can’t find the tweet(s) but his chase rates are pretty good and he’s not just hacking and he’s also had some of the most balls called for strikes of any player in the league. We knew there was going to be an adjustment and him likely sucking for some sort of stretch but he’s been a little unlucky with some of the ball/strike stuff and the K% is a little over inflated.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Where can you see stats concerning who gets fucked over most by umps? Dude has to be in the 99th percentile.

[Bertz]

I don't know if anywhere has % of called strikes 3's, but I'd guess Seiya's at or damn near the top of the league. Many of them horsefeathers, but also many of them legit. Like the horsefeathers Reds starter on Monday got him bad in the first PA of the game.

 

But Seiya's contact rate is fine (53rd percentile), his contact quality is great (78th percentile for xwOBA on contact) and his eye is very good (92nd percentile in charge rate). So I think any approach issues, e.g. being too passive in 2-strike counts, is just part of the adjustment process. Just like you need at least a full season to consider that a pitcher is true talent better/worse than their FIP, you should probably do the same with hitters.

[Cubswin11]

[Bertz]

Timely

 

 

[Andy]

It doesn't make any sense. You'd think if anything a player with Suzuki's reputation would be drawing blown called balls, not strikes.

[Splendid Splinter]

I wonder where Schwarber is at in that. I feel like when Schwarber was on the Cubs that he gets a lot of blown calls on balls/strikes like Suzuki is so far this year. Am I remember that correctly? Seems like he got it worse than like Bryant, Rizzo, etc.

[Andy]

I wonder where Schwarber is at in that. I feel like when Schwarber was on the Cubs that he gets a lot of blown calls on balls/strikes like Suzuki is so far this year. Am I remember that correctly? Seems like he got it worse than like Bryant, Rizzo, etc.

He probably did get some of that. I know I remember Jorge Soler was consistently hosed on those. It got to the point where "a Soler strike" was a pretty common term on this board.

[UMFan83]

Here is a dozen examples of Seiya getting a called strike on a ball this year.

 

[Derwood]

Half of those weren't even framed into the zone

[Sammy Sofa]

That montage should one of the best arguments for robot umps; almost all of them are clearly the ump being duped by the catcher moving the glove back into or close enough to the zone.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Dudes OBP should still be in the 380-400 range of it weren't for those egregious horsefeathers ups