NFL Playoffs 2022

[WrigleyField 22]

Just under 55 percent of college football overtime games are won by the coin-toss winner, higher than NFL regular season. Does that need to be stripped to its roots too? I'm just trying to figure out what the acceptable percentage is.

Yes college should change their awful OT.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I don't consider 50-43.4 a statistically significant difference.

Lol

So it's your position that a 6.6% difference in who wins an NFL overtime game with a sample size of 65 games or whatever it is is entirely due to the coin toss? That's your take?

1) You don't seem to know what statistical significance is.

2) You're omitting 11 games from your already small sample size that make the "gap" significantly greater. The "gap" is actually 11%. If you throw out the ties (which can't happen in the playoffs) the "gap" increases to 13%.

3) The team that wins the coin toss has been a -130 favorite. If you don't think that's "statistically significant" then you and I can make a bet from here on forward. I'll back the coin toss winner. I'll give you +110. What do you say?

[Andy]

Lol

So it's your position that a 6.6% difference in who wins an NFL overtime game with a sample size of 65 games or whatever it is is entirely due to the coin toss? That's your take?

1) You don't seem to know what statistical significance is.

2) You're omitting 11 games from your already small sample size that make the "gap" significantly greater. The "gap" is actually 11%. If you throw out the ties (which can't happen in the playoffs) the "gap" increases to 13%.

3) The team that wins the coin toss has been a -130 favorite. If you don't think that's "statistically significant" then you and I can make a bet from here on forward. I'll back the coin toss winner. I'll give you +110. What do you say?

My point isn't that the coin toss winner doesn't have any advantage at all. My point is that no overtime system is going to create the perfect 50/50 split of outcomes people seem to want out of this. And college football overtime, the system many people are pointing to as, at minimum, a terrific starting point for an NFL system, has a win rate by the coin toss winner that's pretty damn close to the same as the NFL overtime system.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

So it's your position that a 6.6% difference in who wins an NFL overtime game with a sample size of 65 games or whatever it is is entirely due to the coin toss? That's your take?

1) You don't seem to know what statistical significance is.

2) You're omitting 11 games from your already small sample size that make the "gap" significantly greater. The "gap" is actually 11%. If you throw out the ties (which can't happen in the playoffs) the "gap" increases to 13%.

3) The team that wins the coin toss has been a -130 favorite. If you don't think that's "statistically significant" then you and I can make a bet from here on forward. I'll back the coin toss winner. I'll give you +110. What do you say?

My point isn't that the coin toss winner doesn't have any advantage at all. My point is that no overtime system is going to create the perfect 50/50 split of outcomes people seem to want out of this. And college football overtime, the system many people are pointing to as, at minimum, a terrific starting point for an NFL system, has a win rate by the coin toss winner that's pretty damn close to the same as the NFL overtime system.

And that's because the team that goes on offense 2nd has the advantage of knowing what's needed to win/tie. A lot like baseball teams batting last have an advantage. But again, you are cherry-picking for your argument. That "similar gap" (which is still only 8%) only exists for DECISIVE overtime college periods. The team that wins the initial coin toss in college games only goes on to win the game 50.94% of the time. College rules are much more fair, and it isn't even close.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frai.2020.00061/full

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I mean come on, it really shouldn't take machine learning or any kind of statistical analysis to figure this out. It's pretty damn intuitive that having rules where one side might not be able to retort is unfair. The comparisons to having sudden death baseball innings is completely apt. The team on offense first has a large advantage.

[Andy]

1) You don't seem to know what statistical significance is.

2) You're omitting 11 games from your already small sample size that make the "gap" significantly greater. The "gap" is actually 11%. If you throw out the ties (which can't happen in the playoffs) the "gap" increases to 13%.

3) The team that wins the coin toss has been a -130 favorite. If you don't think that's "statistically significant" then you and I can make a bet from here on forward. I'll back the coin toss winner. I'll give you +110. What do you say?

My point isn't that the coin toss winner doesn't have any advantage at all. My point is that no overtime system is going to create the perfect 50/50 split of outcomes people seem to want out of this. And college football overtime, the system many people are pointing to as, at minimum, a terrific starting point for an NFL system, has a win rate by the coin toss winner that's pretty damn close to the same as the NFL overtime system.

And that's because the team that goes on offense 2nd has the advantage of knowing what's needed to win/tie. A lot like baseball teams batting last have an advantage. But again, you are cherry-picking for your argument. That "similar gap" (which is still only 8%) only exists for DECISIVE overtime college periods. The team that wins the initial coin toss in college games only goes on to win the game 50.94% of the time. College rules are much more fair, and it isn't even close.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frai.2020.00061/full

Well, well-put. I concede I did not realize those stats only applied to decisive overtime periods, as where I'd read that didn't mention it.

 

I still think there's more cyber-ink spilled on the issue than it deserves, but your point is taken.

[CoolHandLuke]

What is the argument for not playing a full extra quarter in the playoffs? If it's still tied after that, turn off the game clock and keep playing until the next score.

[minnesotacubsfan]

What is the argument for not playing a full extra quarter in the playoffs? If it's still tied after that, turn off the game clock and keep playing until the next score.

 

injuries

[WrigleyField 22]

What is the argument for not playing a full extra quarter in the playoffs? If it's still tied after that, turn off the game clock and keep playing until the next score.

 

injuries

Just keep the periods short. You basically turn OT into a 2 minute drill shootout where managing the clock is still a strategic factor and avoid the possibility gassed Ds allow two elite Offenses to trade scores into perpetuity.

 

Maybe as little as like 3:30 continuations. You can carry over up to 2 timeouts, and are given one new timeout at each even number OT period, up to 2 max? Clock stops at 1:00 instead of 2:00? Or no auto clock stoppage. (no TV commercial break!)

 

Keeps managing the clock a factor. To the credit of KC, they scored a FG with just 13 seconds at end of reg and there were multiple sub 1 minute drives by both teams! Teams have to balance managing clock and not giving their opponent time to respond. But if KC scores in 2:30, BUF still has an opportunity to respond with a minute left. That's exciting football! It doesn't guarantee a possession response and doesn't have a random coin flip determine any possession edge in sudden death. It keeps the periods long enough to possibly leave a response but short enough a skilled team can milk it. Also short enough to consider player health/fatigue and not have super long extra periods. At some point the timing of the clock plays something of a luck factor, but it's not luck that is untethered from skill and strategic inputs.

 

I don't know what the right numbers are as far as the length of time. I know KC took longer than that, but if you keep the period short enough they know they need to hurry up a little at least. Presents really interesting strategic decisions on each side. It's basically a constant 2 minute drill OT. Perfect.

 

Need a minor league system to test wacky ideas like that though.

[Cubswin11]

I think I wouldn’t mind something like 2, 8-10 min periods for OT. Home team gets ball first and then do like the soccer/hockey OT thing where they get a 20-30 min break before it starts to reset.

[WrigleyField 22]

I think I wouldn’t mind something like 2, 8-10 min periods for OT. Home team gets ball first and then do like the soccer/hockey OT thing where they get a 20-30 min break before it starts to reset.

That starts to become quite a slog. I think there is a balance between a zippy conclusion without titling odds too much.

 

Find the median "first score" time since the NFL instituted the 10 minute OT. That's the first OT period then. It's a full timed period. Do either the coin toss or flip possession from 2nd half to determine possession.

 

After that period is played out in full, if it's still tied, you flip possession again and now go true Sudden death OT. No clock.

 

First team has an advantage as they can set the pace on first possession and basically try to end it on their terms in a single scoring possession, but if they give the other team too much time to tie or run out of time on their own, that other team is also gonna get the sudden death advantage on 2OT. Each team at least gets something and there is a strategic element that counters the coin flip weight.

 

I've done it. Put me on the phone with the commissioner.

[Soul]

I think I wouldn’t mind something like 2, 8-10 min periods for OT. Home team gets ball first and then do like the soccer/hockey OT thing where they get a 20-30 min break before it starts to reset.

That starts to become quite a slog. I think there is a balance between a zippy conclusion without titling odds too much.

 

Find the median "first score" time since the NFL instituted the 10 minute OT. That's the first OT period then. It's a full timed period. Do either the coin toss or flip possession from 2nd half to determine possession.

 

After that period is played out in full, if it's still tied, you flip possession again and now go true Sudden death OT. No clock.

 

First team has an advantage as they can set the pace on first possession and basically try to end it on their terms in a single scoring possession, but if they give the other team too much time to tie or run out of time on their own, that other team is also gonna get the sudden death advantage on 2OT. Each team at least gets something and there is a strategic element that counters the coin flip weight.

 

I've done it. Put me on the phone with the commissioner.

 

That's it!! Another day another problem solved.

[minnesotacubsfan]

well, yes A-Aron, some people did want you to fail because of your vaccine status. However, a bigger reason is just simply that you are a giant tool and deserve a long, painful and embarrassing career end

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/sport/aaron-rodgers-accountability-divisive-packers-nfl-spt-intl/index.html

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just to put some numbers behind it, there were 20 overtime games in the regular season, so 1.11 per week and 1.25 per team. By my envelope math, the average duration was 6:55, which means that just playing the full 10 minute period without extra win conditions would have added 61 minutes of gametime(3.4 per week, 1.9 per team) across the entire season.

[WrigleyField 22]

I think I wouldn’t mind something like 2, 8-10 min periods for OT. Home team gets ball first and then do like the soccer/hockey OT thing where they get a 20-30 min break before it starts to reset.

That starts to become quite a slog. I think there is a balance between a zippy conclusion without titling odds too much.

 

Find the median "first score" time since the NFL instituted the 10 minute OT. That's the first OT period then. It's a full timed period. Do either the coin toss or flip possession from 2nd half to determine possession.

 

After that period is played out in full, if it's still tied, you flip possession again and now go true Sudden death OT. No clock.

 

First team has an advantage as they can set the pace on first possession and basically try to end it on their terms in a single scoring possession, but if they give the other team too much time to tie or run out of time on their own, that other team is also gonna get the sudden death advantage on 2OT. Each team at least gets something and there is a strategic element that counters the coin flip weight.

 

I've done it. Put me on the phone with the commissioner.

 

That's it!! Another day another problem solved.

One addendum as I think through it.

 

If the first team to possess kicks a FG, OT should either

1. Immediately go to a sudden death with possession to opponent

OR

2. Add a set time to the clock, say 1:00 extra.

 

Basically avoid running the clock down to a FG try. I think I prefer 1, but both have validity.

 

Also OT automatically ends on a defensive score.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Just to put some numbers behind it, there were 20 overtime games in the regular season, so 1.11 per week and 1.25 per team. By my envelope math, the average duration was 6:55, which means that just playing the full 10 minute period without extra win conditions would have added 61 minutes of gametime(3.4 per week, 1.9 per team) across the entire season.

 

 

why would that matter?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just to put some numbers behind it, there were 20 overtime games in the regular season, so 1.11 per week and 1.25 per team. By my envelope math, the average duration was 6:55, which means that just playing the full 10 minute period without extra win conditions would have added 61 minutes of gametime(3.4 per week, 1.9 per team) across the entire season.

 

 

why would that matter?

 

It illustrates how much playing time and injury risk you're actually saving with the convoluted rules. If you just play a 10 minute period it's a rounding error in terms of how much additional football is being played. And actually now that I think of it, this probably undercounts slightly because I was going by the the time of the last score, and it's possible to have the last score in overtime be prior to the final whistle if the first drive is a FG. At the same time it also points to the coin flip advantage not necessarily being in winning off the bat like the Chiefs did on Sunday(only 1 overtime went less than 4 minutes, also Mahomes and the Chiefs winning with a TD), but that they get their 2nd/3rd/4th drives of OT(when it is sudden death) before the opponent.

[WrigleyField 22]

At the same time it also points to the coin flip advantage not necessarily being in winning off the bat like the Chiefs did on Sunday(only 1 overtime went less than 4 minutes, also Mahomes and the Chiefs winning with a TD), but that they get their 2nd/3rd/4th drives of OT(when it is sudden death) before the opponent.

I suspect this is an underrated component of the edge. First ball you always have a better shot at a possession edge.

 

This is why the "halves" idea in OT works well as a balancing feature. But we can itterate on versions of that because you risk getting into an endless game still. After a certain point, sudden death is probably practical, but there should be some strategic trade off rather than just being determined by a coin flip.

[OleMissCub]

 

It's like the Justice League of washed up coaches. They couldn't find a team for Houston Nutt?

[bukie]

I wonder if this will be the time an alternative football league will survive an entire season.

[Derwood]

I wonder if this will be the time an alternative football league will survive an entire season.

 

XFL is coming back as well to further dilute the already diluted talent pool

[UK]

I wonder if this will be the time an alternative football league will survive an entire season.

 

 

If the Bears had a full team of practice squad players playing, I'd watch it.

[raw]

I didn't know Pittsburgh had a USFL team now or ever. If they actually do play games, I may check one out just because it's football.

 

Edit: nevermind, all games will be played in 1 location (Birmingham) but just have the historic team names.

[Brian707]

Bring back the Blitz

[WrigleyField 22]

Jason la Canfora reporting Bradys retirement is imminent. If Rodgers is traded to Denver, the NFC is gonna be so wide open. They may wanna consider splitting up the NFC West lol.