2021 Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

Happy for both of them. They earned it. So who are we most likely to lose then? Cam Sanders? Dakota Makes? Seems like we have some interesting enough high minors arms other teams would take a look at.

 

Yeah I think those two. Since Brendon Little is hurt I imagine he won't get taken, which is also why he wasn't rostered.

 

I do worry a bit about a few of the starters with some pedigree who were hurt all year. But those are probably unlikely.

[Bertz]

 

Would love to nab Harold Ramirez to fight for the RH Platoon OFer role on the team.

[Post Count Padder]

Yankees DFAd Clint Frazier

[Cubswin11]

Yankees DFAd Clint Frazier

But I’ve been led to believe by Yankees fans and writers over the past few years he had enough value to be traded for Trout, Tatis or Soto

[jersey cubs fan]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yankees DFAd Clint Frazier

But I’ve been led to believe by Yankees fans and writers over the past few years he had enough value to be traded for Trout, Tatis or Soto

 

What’s the deal with Frazier’s defense? His physical profile and scouting grades don’t seem to indicate any obvious issue, but he’s been absolutely horrific in corner OF statistically(I mean Ibanez/Nelson Cruz bad). It’s the same across UZR, DRS, and OAA too. He seems like the exact type of player that would be worth taking a chance on but it’s hard to make the case if he’s giving away 10-15 runs/162 defensively.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Apologies if I’m just missing it, by why is Castellanos not in the convo?

 

We have positive history with him, he isn’t that old, and he fits our contact and power targets pretty well. Not to downplay Suzuki, who also seems interesting, but Castellanos could be a pretty useful corner guy that you DH a couple times a week in larger parks or when his corner seems likely to get a bunch of fly balls.

 

Also, for the roster crunch of non-optionable 5th/6th/7th starters, why not have them piggyback as is done in the minors? Three innings apiece from Mills/Steele/Thompson could get you pretty far for pretty cheap IMO, while Alzolay could be a weapon as a reliever if enough good SP deals are out there.

 

If someone of Alzolay/Marquez/Mills/Steele/Thompson emerges of the next couple or three years as a 200 inning a year workhorse who regularly goes deep in games, great. That’s ideal. But no need to let that hope be a straightjacket that makes you waste the others, or avoid signing other SP if conditions are suitable.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Apologies if I’m just missing it, by why is Castellanos not in the convo?

 

We have positive history with him, he isn’t that old, and he fits our contact and power targets pretty well. Not to downplay Suzuki, who also seems interesting, but Castellanos could be a pretty useful corner guy that you DH a couple times a week in larger parks or when his corner seems likely to get a bunch of fly balls.

 

A combination of him being a DH defensively and getting a qualifying offer.

[Tim]

Apologies if I’m just missing it, by why is Castellanos not in the convo?

 

We have positive history with him, he isn’t that old, and he fits our contact and power targets pretty well. Not to downplay Suzuki, who also seems interesting, but Castellanos could be a pretty useful corner guy that you DH a couple times a week in larger parks or when his corner seems likely to get a bunch of fly balls.

 

Also, for the roster crunch of non-optionable 5th/6th/7th starters, why not have them piggyback as is done in the minors? Three innings apiece from Mills/Steele/Thompson could get you pretty far for pretty cheap IMO, while Alzolay could be a weapon as a reliever if enough good SP deals are out there.

 

If someone of Alzolay/Marquez/Mills/Steele/Thompson emerges of the next couple or three years as a 200 inning a year workhorse who regularly goes deep in games, great. That’s ideal. But no need to let that hope be a straightjacket that makes you waste the others, or avoid signing other SP if conditions are suitable.

Nick's definitely in the conversation as long as you include QO players. My last list was just guys without the QO.

[Backtobanks]

Apologies if I’m just missing it, by why is Castellanos not in the convo?

 

We have positive history with him, he isn’t that old, and he fits our contact and power targets pretty well. Not to downplay Suzuki, who also seems interesting, but Castellanos could be a pretty useful corner guy that you DH a couple times a week in larger parks or when his corner seems likely to get a bunch of fly balls.

 

Also, for the roster crunch of non-optionable 5th/6th/7th starters, why not have them piggyback as is done in the minors? Three innings apiece from Mills/Steele/Thompson could get you pretty far for pretty cheap IMO, while Alzolay could be a weapon as a reliever if enough good SP deals are out there.

 

If someone of Alzolay/Marquez/Mills/Steele/Thompson emerges of the next couple or three years as a 200 inning a year workhorse who regularly goes deep in games, great. That’s ideal. But no need to let that hope be a straightjacket that makes you waste the others, or avoid signing other SP if conditions are suitable.

 

It sounds like a good idea - Castellanos @ $23 million AAV, a couple of starters at $12 - $18 million AAV each, leaves enough to fill out the roster.

[Derwood]

Q signs with the Bucs

[CubinNY]

I'm about to do alot of babbling so feel free to skip skip skip...I know the comment that the Cubs need 5 "starting pitchers" got a little guff but this adds a little context I think to why there's merit to the thinking:

 

The Cubs struck quickly this winter to nab Wade Miley from the Reds. Miley joins Kyle Hendricks as the only two pitchers currently locked into starting spots for next season, per Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s actually a better foundation than the Cubs have had in recent seasons, at least if you buy into Miley’s breakout last season. As for the rest of the rotation, it’s currently a four-man stable auditioning for three open rotation spots. Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Alec Mills will all compete for bulk innings next season, even if one or more of that quartet ultimately gets bumped into full-time bullpen roles.

 

Compare/Contrast to this comment about the Yankees' rotation on MLBTR:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/yankees-offered-verlander-one-year-25mm-deal.html

 

Without Verlander, the Yankees are still on the lookout for more rotation help. As of now, their rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and a host of less certain options. Luis Severino should be a solid third arm if he’s able to stay healthy, and Nestor Cortes Jr. put together a pretty convincing run at the end of the 2021 season. Domingo German and Jameson Taillon are veterans with question marks who are capable of adding value from the rotation – though you might not be totally comfortable banking on a full season from either.

 

- It's probably fair to say the Cubs don't feel they need 5 "true" SPs. Rather Hoyer and many in the FO came up under a guy who talked about ideally coming into a season eight "starting pitchers" deep a decade before it really really became the thing to do winning or losing. The Yankees here have two "true" SPs entering 2022, like the Cubs, and I count 6 ML SPs mentioned in that blurb. They're still looking fro SP and it's not as if they've given up on guys like Deivi Garcia (if they have, maybe Cubs can pounce), Clarke Schmidt, Lucas Gil, whoever it may be

 

- Both staffs are set up similarly with workloads up too. Hendricks and Cole are among the maybe the dozen or so ML pitchers built up to throw 200+ in 2022, Miley (no TJ but age 35 next year) and Montgomery (29 with a TJ) threw a similar amount of innings last year, and the four are the only four on either staff to make 30 starts last year...14 pitchers made starts for the Yankees, 12 for the Cubs in 2021

 

- For some reason I feel it's important to mention that nearly 400 (396!!) pitchers got a GS last year, only 32 SPs qualified for awards or however that qualified playing time stuff works, maybe 65 pitchers threw 100 innings, and the Cubs used 69 (not nice) players in 2021

 

- 2021 Taillon did make 29 starts for 144 innings and a couple f and r WAR, and I'd say the Cubs are looking for that guy in FA more than they're looking for an ace at this point unless someone falls into their lap. I'm on the Steven Matz bandwagon among the FAs for this pitcher

 

- A case can be made that Alzolay can be made a 29-30 start, 2 WAR, 150 inning guy next year so they should aim higher but I say: outside of Scherzer, Gausman, Ray, Rodon, and Stroman that's not obviously available in FA, FA's about making sure you get that production, a good run through FA is about getting it for the best price (which is to say: skip on Gray), and it won't hurt if he is that guy

 

- The upside on 2022 Lorenzen can be argued as anything from Severino (2022 workload limited by 27.2 IP between 2019-2021, multiple arm injuries IIRC including TJ, averaged 89 IP between 2015-2021) to German (98 mediocre but not not useful while cheap IP during 2021) as far as workload and potential impact

 

- 2022 German and Taillon are a couple low ceiling, ideally cheap veteran SPs, don't throw so hard or have highlight reel work but can throw some innings in a pinch...I think the Cubs should kind of stick to their versatility schtick and go after guys who have started and relieved, big preference for two+ of Vince Velasquez, Daniel Norris, Martin Perez, Conner Greene, Jimmy Nelson...

 

So a pitching staff that looks like...

 

Hendricks (180-210 IP, sinker/changeup)

Matz (150-180 IP, sinker/curveball)

Miley (120-150, cutter/changeup)

Alzolay (120-150, sinker/slider)

Lorenzen (90-120, 4s/slider)

 

Yates/Doolittle/Bradley (Cheap veteran FA closer please!)

Wick

Heuer

Rodriguez

Steele

Velasquez

Perez

Greene

 

on OD should be viable early on. Mostly those 3 guys on the bottom of the bullpen depth chart are there for early season flexibility, buying time and ideally being replaced by young arms like Thompson, Roberts, Marquez, Jensen, Abbott, whoever as the season rolls along. Wick and Heuer are doing the heavy lifting in the late innings early on, ideally Steele makes it a trio by June, Yates or Doolittle work mostly comfortable 9ths...I also like the idea of moving to a 6 man rotation in the late summer/early fall as a way to bring in Kilian and maybe get some extra rest to the starters

 

- Obviously stay opportunistic for one of the aces in FA or a high upside young arm via trade. I'm not budging for any high trade priced Marlins SP but Trevor Rogers, don't really care to find two Kilians - big name prospects much preferred only so like a Gore or Lacy or maybe Whitley...Luzardo? I'm not not interested, guy still had 96 last year...Matt Manning?

 

- Note the lack of Mills mentions: he's a big part of the big velocity problem, big due to the impact of the issue, so I would non-tender

 

Alrighty, bless anyone and their descendants who reads this, double it for anyone who sees something coherent. I had options too, am absolutely insane

 

----

 

Interesting to note about Kris Bryant's time with the Giants: his K rate dropped, his hard hit% went up, GBs went down, he kept a nearly 11% BB rate, and he did this to all fields (big jump in batted balls going to the opposite field)

Miley, a break out at age 33.

[Tim]

Okay - on a boring conference call. Let's see if I can get this done during the call. Adding in a couple of trade targets this time.

 

Assumption #1: Try to be at least a fringe playoff team in 2022

Assumption #2: Avoid the QO if at all possible

Assumption #3: Try to spend "smart" in FA

Assumption #4: Roughly $80M to spend, leaving $10M for veteran relievers & backup C

Assumption #5: Universal DH starts in 2022

Assumption #6: SP, SP, OF, SS, OF, 3B, 1B/DH

 

SP:

I know TT doesn't think it's possible to snag two prime FA starting pitchers in the same offseason, but I think they could do it like this: Sign one now before 12/1 (preferably Jon Gray, imo). Then sign another after the lockout - my theory is that they will essentially act as two separate and decoupled markets.

 

FA Signing - Jon Gray - 4/$56 ($14M aav)

FA Signing - Yusei Kikuchi - 2/$20 ($10M aav)

 

OF:

Same process on signing two OF in the same offseason:

 

FA Signing - Seiya Suzuki - 5/$55 ($11M aav)

FA Signing - Mark Canha - 2/$24 ($12M aav)

 

IF/DH:

This is where things get more fun with trades. Minnesota is rumored to be willing to absorb as much as half of Donaldson's contract to move him. Oakland seems set on trading Matt Olsen - I think there will be a lot of demand, but I'm not sure how much a first baseman will net in a trade.

 

Trade 1: Greg Deichmann + ? for Josh Donaldson (and salary relief)

New Player: Josh Donaldson - 2/$24 ($12M aav)

 

Trade 2: Nelson Velazquez + Brailyn Marquez + lower ranked prospects for Matt Olsen

New Player: Matt Olsen - $12M + arb3 ($12M aav)

 

Trade 3: David Bote for Didi Gregorius

New Player: Didi Gregorius - $15M ($12M aav after subtracting Bote)

----------------------------

 

New Lineup:

 

C: Contreras

1B: Olsen

2B: Madrigal / Hoerner

SS: Gregorius / Hoerner

3B: Donaldson / Wisdom

OF: Happ

OF: Canha

OF: Suzuki

DH: Schwindel / Wisdom

B/OF: Ortega

B/OF: Heyward

B/IF: Hoerner

B/IF: Wisdom

B/C: someone

 

SP: Gray

SP: Hendricks

SP: Miley

SP: Kikuchi

SP: Alzolay / Steele / Thompson / Kilian

RP: Cast of thousands + vet or two

 

From a dollars perspective, I blew the budget a little bit here. (14 + 10 + 11 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12) = $83. That puts the Cubs around a $185M payroll, which is easily maintained for them and still gives them flexibility going forward. In addition, it doesn't commit the Cubs to any long-term contracts other than Suzuki at only $11m per year.

 

But that's also a pretty deep + talented team of bats. The rotation is pretty weak, but has some potential if they can unlock something in Kikuchi. I fully anticipate Kilian grabbing a spot by the end of the year, too. Also, Alzolay is just a good cutter/change away from being a really good starter - there's always hope there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- If you are going to get 2 of the SP in that top velocity tier, "anyone but Stroman" + Kikuchi is probably the way it would happen. At 10M AAV I'm guessing you probably need a third year on Kikuchi though(this doesn't matter much to me).

 

- If you're worried about the budget you can just not sign Canha, especially since you've added 2 corner IF and didn't get rid of anyone who isn't guaranteed to be one of the Top 26(Deichmann, Bote). Relying on Wisdom/Schwindel/Ortega/Heyward for one OF spot + DH(with the OF spot belonging to Davis by EOY) is more than fine.

 

- There's enough competitive teams without solid 1B situations(and enough performance risk in the post-prime FA options) that I would guess the Olson deal has to hurt more. You can also keep Canha and not make the Olson trade, but that lineup is reeeeealllly right handed which isn't optimal. Alternatively you can keep a little more in reserve(185 mil is aggressive even with Miley, Gregorius, and maybe Contreras coming off after 1 year), not do either, and take the gamble on the Wisdom/Schwindel/Ortega group, supplementing with someone like Tsutsugo who fits the roster and might take a low cost 1+option deal to build on his Pittsburgh success. This might also help ensure you can extend Willson if that's a goal.

[Tim]

- If you are going to get 2 of the SP in that top velocity tier, "anyone but Stroman" + Kikuchi is probably the way it would happen. At 10M AAV I'm guessing you probably need a third year on Kikuchi though(this doesn't matter much to me).

 

- If you're worried about the budget you can just not sign Canha, especially since you've added 2 corner IF and didn't get rid of anyone who isn't guaranteed to be one of the Top 26(Deichmann, Bote). Relying on Wisdom/Schwindel/Ortega/Heyward for one OF spot + DH(with the OF spot belonging to Davis by EOY) is more than fine.

 

- There's enough competitive teams without solid 1B situations(and enough performance risk in the post-prime FA options) that I would guess the Olson deal has to hurt more. You can also keep Canha and not make the Olson trade, but that lineup is reeeeealllly right handed which isn't optimal. Alternatively you can keep a little more in reserve(185 mil is aggressive even with Miley, Gregorius, and maybe Contreras coming off after 1 year), not do either, and take the gamble on the Wisdom/Schwindel/Ortega group, supplementing with someone like Tsutsugo who fits the roster and might take a low cost 1+option deal to build on his Pittsburgh success. This might also help ensure you can extend Willson if that's a goal.

Unfortunately, extending Willson is not a goal for me. He's going to be a 30+ year old catcher with a ton of mileage.

 

Canha is definitely the biggest luxury there. If we don't sign him, we can live with Heyward/Ortega/Hermosillo/Wisdom in the OF until Davis is ready. Alternatively, we could also live without the Donaldson trade to save cash. I hadn't noticed how badly his defense had dropped off last year. That might be a bad sign for a 36 year old infielder.

[Bertz]

 

Would love to nab Harold Ramirez to fight for the RH Platoon OFer role on the team.

 

Asked and received

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Don't mind buying Ramirez even if he gets lost on waivers or doesn't escape Spring Training, but I'm also not sure if there's anything he does better than Hermosillo. Make contact, I guess.

[Tim]

 

Would love to nab Harold Ramirez to fight for the RH Platoon OFer role on the team.

 

Asked and received

 

What was it in his profile that drew you to him?

[Bertz]

 

Would love to nab Harold Ramirez to fight for the RH Platoon OFer role on the team.

 

Asked and received

 

What was it in his profile that drew you to him?

 

There's A LOT of red on his Baseball Savant page. He's fast and he hits the ball really hard, and doesn't strike out much. His plate discipline is a wreck so I don't think he's a star waiting to happen, but I like him a lot for the RH OFer role.

 

Like TT said there's a lot of redundancy with Hermosillo, but pending what we add in the OF having two guys like this is probably a good thing. We're hopefully adding a starting caliber outfielder this winter. Having both a Hermosillo and a Ramirez makes me a lot more comfortable with that guy being left handed (e.g. Conforto).

[Bertz]

 

Feels like the middle class of the starting pitching market is going to be fully resolved before the lockout

[Bertz]

 

Feels like the middle class of the starting pitching market is going to be fully resolved before the lockout

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[cl smooth]

[Bertz]

 

[Bote McBoteface]

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