2021 Offseason Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Non-Contreras catchers put up -0.7 fWAR in 257 PA last year, that's the part that's not that hard to improve on. Yes, if you trade Contreras and have 2 new catchers you could add up to a similar amount, but the biggest gains are just from finding a functional backup. Plus if you find the functional backup you likely get better performance from Contreras since he will not get overworked or have to face every elite SP. Probably not a coincidence his 2nd half was better with Chirinos around to be a worthwhile backup.

[Cubswin11]

Non-Contreras catchers put up -0.7 fWAR in 257 PA last year, that's the part that's not that hard to improve on. Yes, if you trade Contreras and have 2 new catchers you could add up to a similar amount, but the biggest gains are just from finding a functional backup. Plus if you find the functional backup you likely get better performance from Contreras since he will not get overworked or have to face every elite SP. Probably not a coincidence his 2nd half was better with Chirinos around to be a worthwhile backup.

I’ve been a proponent of getting a competent backup C for years now, Vic was okay but never was a big fan. Maddon and Ross have ridden Willy in to the ground multiple seasons because of no viable backup. You should be able to get a good backup for ~$5 mil and keep Willy more rested/DH him if we get that.

[Bertz]

If Amaya's arm hadn't exploded or if we weren't trying to compete next year I'd think trading Willson would make a lot of sense. But as is I don't know that the juice is be worth the squeeze.

[Tim]

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that trading Willson is the path I definitely want to go. I'm just replying to those who say that trading Willson means they're punting on 2022. For me, the calculation comes down to whether I can get a reasonable term extension, what kind of prospects are offered up in trade, and how well I think I can plug the *overall* catching gap for 2022 and beyond.

 

One small factor that I'll throw out there, though, is that recruiting FA's is already going to be an uphill challenge to convince them the team is ready to be competitive. It'll be that much harder if we trade our all star catcher for future assets. It's a minor factor, though, because it would only take a big contract to one top of market player to change everyone's perception about the window.

[squally1313]

For the 'absolutely don't trade Willson' crowd, is there a reasonable extension you'd be happy with? He'll forever be a Cubs legend, but he's basically the Rizzo conversation again, except worse because he's a catcher who has repeatedly had the 'he's too worn down' conversations surrounding him. I can squint and see working with him enough to get to an adequate level of first base defense, hope more reps over there keeps his bat in the 120 wRC range, and run with some bizarre Schwindel/Rivas/Contreras/second division starter rotation at 1B/C. But if that's the case, I want to see KB and Correa or Seager on the left side of the infield.

[Tryptamine]

For the 'absolutely don't trade Willson' crowd, is there a reasonable extension you'd be happy with? He'll forever be a Cubs legend, but he's basically the Rizzo conversation again, except worse because he's a catcher who has repeatedly had the 'he's too worn down' conversations surrounding him. I can squint and see working with him enough to get to an adequate level of first base defense, hope more reps over there keeps his bat in the 120 wRC range, and run with some bizarre Schwindel/Rivas/Contreras/second division starter rotation at 1B/C. But if that's the case, I want to see KB and Correa or Seager on the left side of the infield.

 

I just don't believe in investing heavily into 30+ year old catchers, so it would have to be something absurdly low like 4/48 for me to feel comfortable.

[Tim]

I'm looking at a plan for the offense in a different way today. Instead of trying to load up with stars, I'm going to try to create a really deep lineup without any long-term FA commitments.

 

The Giants had the best OPS in the NL last year at .769. Assuming we will have the DH in the NL next year, the best OPS in baseball was Toronto at .797. The White Sox were top five at just .758. Let's split the difference and try to build a team that can reasonably project to a .775 OPS.

 

Coming back to the team next year we have Contreras, Hoerner, Madrigal, Happ, Bote & Heyward. Our first key to the balanced-offense approach is to trade or cut Heyward and eat the rest of the contract. Each of the first three is at least a decent bet to post a .775 OPS (but not much more than that in the case of Hoerner & Madrigal). Bote...is more complex. The man hits the baseball hard...and on the ground. But he's increased his launch angle each year (3.9 -> 7.7 -> 9.3 -> 9.8). He's on a cheap deal - I'd keep him and hope the new hitting coach can help him to increase the launch angle. But if he's still hitting it on the ground to start next year, be ready to move on quickly.

 

Chirinos has had only one year below that number in the past 5-6 years (and it was the weird 2020 season). Bring him back to back up Willson. Shouldn't cost too much.

 

The next step is to decide what to do with all the (interesting) old rookies from last year - Schwindel, Ortega, Wisdom, Rivas & Hermosillo. I think you could look at a Rivas/Schwindel platoon at 1B/DH and expect to get okay production. I wouldn't want to go into next year counting on any of the other guys in any more than a limited bench role.

 

So that leaves 3B, OF, OF, SS, 1B/DH as spots to fill.

 

3B:

Of course I'd target Bryant if his price comes down into the right range. The other options are...less good. Escobar & Kyle Seager are probably the next best FA options at the position. Escobar seems like the better bet of the two and also provides better than average contact rates.

 

OF:

Assuming the market is reasonable after his down year, Conforto would be my top priority. It really looks like he was just unlucky this year. Sign the man.

 

One relatively under-the-radar guy I'd like to sign would be Eddie Rosario. He provides really strong contact numbers and 2021 was the first year he's been under a .792 OPS in five years. Of course, he's also 30 and has been declining each of the past four years, so hopefully he comes at a reasonable cost.

 

Also: Schwarber's gonna get paid. If the price doesn't get crazy, though, bring him back, please. But I'll assume it's not happening here.

 

Also: add Brennen Davis into the mix for the second half of the year.

 

SS:

I'm just going to assume that Correa, Seager, Baez, Story & Semien all get bigger deals than we'll want to hand out in this scenario. Personally, I'd push hard on Seager & Semien to be a foundational piece for the next few years. But it doesn't fit in this particular plan.

 

So - sign Chris Taylor. Next best option available and can help at a number of positions.

 

So here's my roster:

C - Contreras

1B - Rivas

2B - Madrigal

3B - Escobar

SS - Taylor

OF - Conforto

OF - Happ

OF - Rosario

 

C - Chirinos

UT - Hoerner

IF - Wisdom

IF - Schwindel

IF - Bote

 

Ideally, there would be money in the budget to add in Schwarber for DH, in which case I'd cut one of Wisdom/Schwindel/Bote. Another one of those guys gets booted when Davis comes up in the second half and boots one of the OF to the bench.

 

Not any star power in that lineup, but there aren't any easy outs unless Happ is in one of his funks. Taylor & Hoerner provide a lot of versatility. And there's more than enough room in the budget for those guys plus 2-3 starters. Go get Thor, Gray & Matz.

[squally1313]

Did Tom Ricketts write that post

[Tim]

Did Tom Ricketts write that post

All except the "Thor, Gray and Matz" part

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thor, Gray, and Taylor are all in the 'likely' category to receive a QO from MLBTR's August breakdown: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2021-22-qualifying-offer-candidates.html

 

Say what you will about the likelihood/benefit of signing a QO'd Free Agent(I think I'll start a separate thread about that soon), but I don't think signing three of them is a particularly realistic (or even desirable) path.

[squally1313]

Did Tom Ricketts write that post

All except the "Thor, Gray and Matz" part

When the first guy listed in there has thrown 10 innings in the last 2 years, forgive me for not getting too excited.

 

Here's your roster below:

 

C - Contreras $8m

1B - Rivas $600k

2B - Madrigal $600k

3B - Escobar $10m (based on one Brewers blog I wrote, that's the high end)

SS - Taylor $14m (Zobrist contract, saw a couple comparisons)

OF - Conforto $20m (says he's a lock to accept the QO, so let's just guess a little higher)

OF - Happ $6m

OF - Rosario $15m (total guess)

 

C - Chirinos $1m

UT - Hoerner $600k

IF - Wisdom $600k

IF - Schwindel $600k

IF - Bote $2.5m

 

That's $79.5m. Heyward at an almost complete loss gets you to $100m.

 

Hendricks $14m

Mills/Wick/Adam/Heuer/Azlolay/pick 5 other bullpen dudes $600k each, $6m

 

You think we should be looking at $50m to fill out the rotation?

[Tim]

lol - so you guys are suggesting there are flaws in a plan that I wouldn't really endorse in the first place? I accept the criticisms wholeheartedly!

 

Honestly, it was more of a thought experiment for creating a deep lineup vs the stars & scrubs approach. I'd like to say I put a lot of thought and effort into it, but it was really more of a whim and a few minutes looking at the upcoming FA list.

[Tim]

Also, on the starters:

 

• If Matz is going to get a QO (assuming they still exist), I'm going to have to pick another guy to use in my examples for the third of three starters.
  
• I'm sure Gray will get the QO - I think he's a good bet to be worth it, but we'll have to see what the rules in the next CBA look like.
  
• Thor is almost certainly not going to be in the offering. If he gets a QO (and they function similar to today), I think his best bet would be to take that, show he's healthy, and snag a big fat contract next time around.

 

In reality, it's going to be really hard to plan anything on the pitching side until we know what the next CBA looks like. One way or another, I'm sure the Cubs are going to be most interested in finding the next Gausman or Ray. Or hope the Cleveland guy has scouting on who might be some young guys to go snag from another org.

[Tryptamine]

I think the Cubs should be all over Kluber as a solid #3 or #4 if he's willing to sign. You can get him on a 1 year deal, the peripherals were ok last year and he's a piece that you can use if you think you can compete, but then trade him at the deadline if the team is lousy.

[Bertz]

I'm looking at a plan for the offense in a different way today. Instead of trying to load up with stars, I'm going to try to create a really deep lineup without any long-term FA commitments.

 

Honestly I think this is the way to go and don't have any qualms or think its cheap... except at shortstop. I know you mentioned it, but we HAVE to go for one of the big guys there. The team has publicly said Nico's not a real everyday shortstop, and for as much prospect capital as the Cubs have at the position its incredibly far away (Made might honestly be the closest real shortstop?).

 

Like even above Marcus Stroman, I think we need to come down with one of the top four guys at short. Though I do think the ideal is one big position player and one big pitcher, and then a bunch of short term contracts. You don't want to lock the roster down too much too early, but you do want some real foundational pieces added this winter so that this time next year we're not just looking at essentially the current team a year older plus Brennen Davis.

 

I think too, with the short term guys, I'd want some RH OF help and some LH IF help. If we're going to try to depth people to depth, which I'm totally aligned with, we'll want plenty of platoon/matchup options. So like I'm still noodling with specific names, but my ideal offseason is along the lines of:

 

Marcus Semien

Marcus Stroman

Tommy Pham

Andrew Heaney

Brad Miller

Robinson Chirinos

Some salty vet reliever

 

I feel like this bolsters the '22 team, doesn't block anyone from Iowa (though to be very clear, Brennen is the only one we should plan around), and doesn't lock up too much money for 2023 and beyond. It's certainly not the absolute best 2022 roster we could put out there, but do think it's a legitimately good team and keeps a lot of powder dry.

[Backtobanks]

I still think at least one rotation spot ought to come from a trade. Overpaying for pitchers like Means and/or Kelly would certainly help the rotation immediately. Both pitchers are dirt cheap and are on teams that have no hope of contending for quite a few years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also I want to like Nico Hoerner, tried in 2020 and sure he has starter potential somewhere someday, but he doesn't seem like even a reasonable bet for a .775 OPS next year. That even seems on the higher end for Madrigal

 

Might need to recalibrate on what is worth giving starting PA to, especially for certain positions. Merrifield put up a a .712 OPS with +5 defense and was worth 3.3 fWAR. In practice Nico might be shy of that mark in a similar line since Whit added value by leading off 162 times, but even if you cut that by 10-15% thats still productivity well worth having. As for Madrigal, he was tracking better than that through a third of a season, so him being similarly worthwhile is not an abstract concept.

[Bertz]

[muntjack]

Probably the last SS I'd want to sign.

[Backtobanks]

 

Story may not get the contract he hoped, but someone will sign him to a bigger/longer contract than the Cubs.

[Cubswin11]

Absolutely no interest in Story, don’t trust the road splits and having the QO attached.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Some questions for ya:

 

1. Semien is an older player than the other shortstops and clearly someone a team would be buying high on. (Arguably a later bloomer too.) As a guy with value more concentrated in the short term than the alternative FA shortstops, he seems like the kind of guy Jed wants to avoid, doesn’t he? Especially given our position in the contention cycle, but even before that? And maybe before the debate about stars vs signing more mid-tier guys?

 

2. Are we at a point in history yet where we can confidently declare that we know what the “Jed Doctrine” is?

 

3. Is the Jed doctrine statable as “be very afraid of long term risk, especially if it’s a pitcher or you’re not at the peak of the contention cycle?” It seems like he generally wants 1-3 year deals of medium dollars for intermediate talent that can variously be enjoyed if things click, or traded if they don’t, or easily moved on from if they suck. Not that there wouldn’t be some play in that idea for a Castellanos or a Stroman, but just generally?

 

4. That said, I think he’d sign a high dollar, long -term shortstop this offseason IF he thought the deal would be rational to have for, say, 2024-2029. But I think he would judge a deal by that metric while mostly ignoring 2022 and 2023. If a proposed SS deal looks good in most of the outyears, then by the Jed doctrine I proposed it can be the method for improving in the less important next couple years, but otherwise, skip the big shortstops and revert to the non- peak-of-the-cycle default and just sign smaller, shorter deals. Do you agree that that sounds like Jed?

 

5. Who do you see as the realistic suitors for the five shortstops? The easy google searches say NYY, NYM, Astros, Tigers, Rangers, possibly Cubs, possibly Cards (disputed by VEB though). One said the Reds too, but I can’t see that. Dodgers if they deal Turner too. One source said Philly already spent its allowance on Realmuto, another seemed to assume they’re loaded. IDK for sure, but assume the former.

 

6. What interactions are there likely to be between teams wanting 3B or 2B, on the one hand, and the SS market on the other? One columnist had the Astros signing KB and sliding Bregman over to SS, another had the Jays or Red Sox plugging Semien in at 2B, several had the Cards sending DeJong to plug a 2B hole elsewhere to create payroll space, etc. Seems like it might be too unwieldy and complicated to get a handle on, but have any you tried?

 

7. Tell me why my off-the-cuff predictions are silly:

 

Seager — Yankees, lefty hitter for lineup balance

Correa — Tigers outbid the field after Seager signs

Semien — Rangers want to splurge, way overpay for a player they aren’t good enough to benefit from

Baez — Mets snap him up quick

Story — sees interest from many who wait him out, Astros, hometown Rangers before they sign Semien, Rockies before they get priced out, Cubs and Cards offer fixed sums, he’s still choosing as ST starts, whenever it starts

KB — I wish I knew

 

8. I didn’t really consider cases of Dodger-style ginormous but short deals. Would Jed be intrigued by that concept?

[Bertz]

Separating out what we know about Jed's "doctrine" from what we know about Theo's is pretty tough unfortunately. They were generally good about presenting a united front throughout their time together. I think we can make some inferences, but what we *know* about Jed is very limited:

 

- During his time in SD, he built up a great farm, but then came here before it was time to actually turn that into a competitive team

 

- During Quintana trade talks, he wasn't really willing to trade Eloy (but we don't know if that means he didn't want to make the deal at all or would have preferred dealing Happ instead)

 

- Getting Strop along with Arrieta was his idea

 

- Overhauling player development two years ago was his doing

 

- Over the past twelve months he's opted for higher upside further out prospects as opposed to more limited guys who can help sooner

 

That's about it? I've always gotten the vibe that Jed has a very Cleveland/Tampa set of baseball sensibilities, while Theo was cut from more of the Dombrowski mold, and those complementary styles are what made them so successful together. But that's really extrapolating a lot from a little.

 

I'd expect the bulk of moves this winter to be efficient. 1-2 year deals to vets. A prospect trade or two, but primarily involving guys who are part of the 40 Man roster crunch.

 

BUT, you have two sort of meta variables that I think make at least one big contract likely. First, it's just not realistic to wait until you're "ready" to start trying. Getting, say, four of the top 10 FAs in one offseason is incredibly difficult. Jed I believe has himself referenced that before as well. The other is that it sounds like PTR doesn't have an appetite for a long rebuild. There was a Mooney article that said the pressure is on to get back to convention ASAP. Whether it's Wrigley itself, the neighborhood, or Marquee, I think PTR needs butts in seats. So you can't just make an entire offseason about efficiency, there's gotta be at least one splash to get people excited.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5. Who do you see as the realistic suitors for the five shortstops? The easy google searches say NYY, NYM, Astros, Tigers, Rangers, possibly Cubs, possibly Cards (disputed by VEB though). One said the Reds too, but I can’t see that. Dodgers if they deal Turner too. One source said Philly already spent its allowance on Realmuto, another seemed to assume they’re loaded. IDK for sure, but assume the former.

 

I almost said something similar yesterday, but I think the size of the market is an underrated case for optimism in landing one of the SS. IMO you've got 10-12 teams that you can reasonably say *could* land one of them(NYY, TOR, DET, HOU, TEX, NYM, WSN, PHI, CHC, LAD, maybe CIN or MIN). That's a little bigger than the reasonable market for the average top FA, but in this case there's 5 of them, if we treated all their odds equally you're north of a 40% shot. And you could make the case the Cubs have better odds than a decent chunk of the field. CIN/MIN probably aren't going there, TOR, NYM, and LAD have SS so their incentive on this particular group is lower, NYY, LAD, and HOU might have luxury tax concerns depending on the CBA details, plus WSN, DET, and TEX aren't inherently more attractive/competitive than the Cubs. In this light you could say the main barrier is the Cubs willingness to give out the contract, and the nuances of what teams target which players, since it's tough to negotiate with 5 SS simultaneously and they aren't created equal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BN with a good roundup of a good NPB outfielder that may get posted: Seiya Suzuki: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/10/22/top-japanese-outfielder-seiya-suzuki-will-reportedly-be-posted-soon/

 

I am admittedly the easiest person in the world to sell on Japanese imports, but this seems like it could be a really good fit. The profile seems like it would translate well, as Brett points out the Cubs can take the risk on that unknown more than the average contender, and a RH corner OF complements the current roster nicely with all the lefties hanging around(Happ, Heyward, Ortega, Deichmann). Brett also notes that the posting fee is a good outlet for the one off 'savings' of shedding the salary they did at the deadline, though the exact internal accounting on that front is far from certain.